5 Players Whose EPL Draft Fantasy Prospects Have Worsened in 23/24

In the EPL Draft Fantasy Football game, it's a sad day when we're on the brink of a new season and several previously solid fantasy assets have lost their luster. This happens far more than we'd care to admit and for many different reasons. The continuation of the five-subs rule, crowded and complicated dressing rooms, dips in player performances, and new transfers can all lead to fewer minutes and fewer opportunities for many key players. In this article, we'll discuss (at least) five players whose fantasy value has taken a hit before the 23/24 season. Click here for details on how you can access our 23/24 Draft Kit.

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EPL Draft Fantasy Assets Take a Hit as Real-Life Realities Set In

The Premier League is flushed with cash these days. We've seen financial injections from American billionaires, hedge fund managers, sovereign wealth funds, and something called a Public Investment Fund. There's no getting around the fact that the Premier League has been allowed to become a pay-to-play league. This, of course, leads to some mind-blowing transfer fees. But a trend we've seen more recently is teams paying exorbitant fees to sign elite talent merely to add depth to their overall squad or to provide motivation to their starters. We must be cognizant of these situations as fantasy managers, as once-great fantasy assets make moves to congested squads and likely see a sharp drop in EPL playtime. But, this can also be an unfortunate side-effect of European competitions and poor player form. Below, we'll discuss players who fall into all of these categories.

Darwin Nuñez

Upon Firmino's departure in early June, the powers that be at Liverpool Football Club decided to hand the #9 shirt to Darwin Nuñez. Some members of the LFC fan base took it as a sign. They took it as a statement of intent. They took it as history in the making. They took it... way too far.

The rest of us both within and outside of the Liverpool fandom bubble were a bit more skeptical. And I remain so. At the conclusion of the 22/23 Premier League season, to call Darwin a super sub would be considered high flattery. Several factors saw him relegated to this role. His difficulties in grasping English were well documented and as a result Klopp was often visibly frustrated with his big-money striker. Nuñez, whether through lack of understanding or lack of effort, failed to properly implement the counter-pressing measures that Klopp demands of his players. And the manager said as much publicly. As a result, with a fit and firing front line consisting of Salah, Diaz, Jota, and Gakpo, Nuñez saw his minutes severely restricted.

But with a full preseason to master the gegenpress (and hopefully hammer away at some Duolingo), why has Darwin been given lead billing in this article? Well, my initial concerns at the conclusion of last season would have been the form of Gakpo and the solidity he brought to the squad. His ability to control the ball in tight spaces, hold up play when necessary, and counter-press had him all-but-nailed in the XI. But early reports out of camp have indicated that Darwin is , in fact, doing literally everything asked of him to improve. This situation just got even murkier. While I initially thought that Nuñez would see a sub role at best, I now fear more for a full-on rotation nightmare through the middle of the attack. And that's the only spot I really see Nuñez playing in this team. On the right, Salah is king and shall reign there forever and ever, amen. And on the left are two supremely talented wingers in Diaz and Jota fighting for starts.

So, how should fantasy managers approach Darwin Nuñez in the draft? Don't. Let another one of your league mates take the Uruguayan (probably far too early). Unless I have another Liverpool FWD not named Salah, I'm avoiding him entirely. However, there is a point late in drafts where he could become a value. In that case, you could draft him as a handcuff to another Liverpool FWD or even as a stand-alone trade piece. But just know that you're doing so with the full knowledge that he's likely to take up one of your valuable bench spots for weeks (if not months) before he returns any value.

UPDATE: as of 11 July, Darwin has turned up at training camp. He was one of only 8 senior teams members to do so that early. He has indeed been practicing his English, as evidenced by his complimenting Calvin Ramsay on his new veneers. Whether Bobby Firmino was mentioned in the conversation about teeth, we're unsure. Info coming out of camp also mention the fact that both Darwin and Mo are in ridiculously good shape. I am actually going to change some of the above analysis due to these reports. It's maybe not as bad for Nuñez as I initially feared.

Alexis Mac Allister

I'm running the risk of LFC fans storming out and leaving the rest of this article unread, but unfortunately I'm here to spit truth. As a fan, I am absolutely elated at the Mac Allister signing. He will bring stability, creativity, and cutting edge to a midfield that has exactly zero of those things at the moment. Furthermore, I'm not going to argue that he won't be a valuable fantasy asset. However, it's hard to imagine a situation in which the Liverpool midfield -- the Bermuda Triangle of fantasy points -- will produce more opportunities for Mac Allister than Brighton's did last season.

Let's look back quickly. Mac had 10 goals and (only) 2 assists in 22/23 for the Seagulls. Knowing that he ended the season with 11.2 points per start, his lack of assists is shocking in retrospect. So there's room for improvement there. His goal tally, however, will undoubtedly take a hit. Of his 10 goals, a whopping six of them were penalty kicks, and Salah will almost certainly not be relinquishing pens to the newcomer.

Now, turning our eye to his new home, the Liverpool midfield, let's also review last year's returns. In terms of fantasy points per start, Liverpool's midfield leader was Curtis Jones with a mediocre 7.5. This average placed him 13th on the team in terms of PPS. That's right... the best Liverpool midfielder in 22/23 was the 13th ranked fantasy asset on his team. Hence, Bermuda Triangle.

Where does that leave us with Mac Allister? I reckon be bests Jones's 7.5 PPS in 23/24. But I think he'll fall short of his 11.2 PPS from last season. In a recent mock draft, he was taken in the 3rd round, and that's simply far too early. There was a plethora of players still on the board I would have rather drafted including Mbeumo, Jota, Reece James, and Luke Shaw. If you can get Mac Allister in the 6th round or later, I like that value a lot better. If not, let him be someone else's problem.

Christian Eriksen

In the aforementioned mock draft, Eriksen went off the board at the 2nd pick of the 10th round. Honestly, he could be great value there. My worry, though, is that his ADP will creep up throughout the summer as less experienced drafters see a familiar name and click "Draft Now." The veterans in this mock draft knew internally everything that I'm about to lay out in the subsequent paragraphs. For those less well-versed, please do not make the mistake of taking Eriksen too early this draft season.

First of all, his role at United is precisely what we feared it might be when news broke that he'd be leaving Brentford. At Old Trafford, the Dane finds himself in a #8 box-to-box role, but even that description gives him a bit too much credit. Anyone who rostered Casemiro or Fred (on his week) knows that those two join in the attack far more often than Eriksen. In his 10 most recent appearances for the club, he eclipsed 10 fantasy points just 3 times. If you exclude those 3 matches, his points per start for the remaining 7 appearances was a paltry 3.6. He's regrettably just not as involved as we'd hoped he would be.

Now, for a bit of a quiz. When do you think was the last time that Christian Eriksen played 90 minutes? If you said January 22, you definitely cheated and looked up the answer. January 22! 9 days later, he suffered a nasty tackle in an FA Cup match and was ruled out for 3 months. After his return in April, he failed to go a full 90 for the remainder of the season. His current situation is also complicated by the fact that United are actively pursuing options in the midfield who could further cut into Eriksen's minutes, the fact that they have the Champion's League to contend with, and the fact that he's another year older. The crux of the issue here, though, is the fact that he's simply not a great fantasy asset in his role at United.

Diogo Dalot

This should come as a surprise to no one who paid even the slightest bit of attention to Manchester United lineups at the tail end of the 22/23 season. At times, Dalot was completely usurped by Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who is admittedly a much better 1-on-1 defender. AWB, however, lacks the attacking upside of Dalot. It's worth quickly comparing these two players.

As is evident, Dalot bests Wan-Bissaka in every category that matters to fantasy managers. In Draft Genie's article, "Where to Draft Defenders in Fantrax EPL 23/24," he considers both of these defenders in the "Above Average" category. He notes, however, that if either one wrestles away the starting role, they would move into the "Secondary Elite" category (because, of course, only Trent and Trippier are truly "Elite"). But even with the rotation headache, both of these 9+ PPS defenders are worth rostering. And that's frustrating.

Here's my advice: if you can, draft Wan-Bissaka about 2 to 3 rounds after another manager drafts Dalot. Not only do I think that AWB will start the season for the Red Devils after the way that he ended last season. But also, Wan-Bissaka becomes a very valuable trade chip about 3 weeks into the season when the manager who rosters Dalot starts to become desperate. Conversely, you might be able to pry Dalot away for less than his draft-day value. Either way, find a way to extract some value from the uncertainty surrounding this situation.

Kaoru Mitoma

As much as it breaks my heart to put Professor Kaoru on this list heading into the 23/24 season, it's hard not to. In fact, we should probably do the same for all Brighton attacking assets. The Seagulls have a good problem: because of the Europa League, they will face Thursday night matches with long travel times. This will inevitably mean that they will need to rotate more. None of this is groundbreaking analysis.

Cast your inward eye back to the end of last season when Brighton had multiple double gameweeks within a very short span of time. You may not remember this, but during that time frame, we saw starts from the likes of Undav, Ayari, Buonanotte, Welbeck, and Gilmour. This is going to happen far more often. Despite Mac Allister, and possibly Caicedo leaving, the Brighton attack has actually gotten more crowded, with the signing of Jaoa Pedro and the loan returnees including Simon Adingra (a left-wing with similar characteristics and development pipeline to Mitoma), among others. The scouting staff at Brighton have long been hailed for their ability to identify, sign, and integrate young talent. Well, this year will be their time to shine even more so, with plenty of games to play.

To further complicate the matter, Mitoma will be competing in the AFC Asian Cup from Jan. 12 to Feb. 10. If you're hoping that Japan will crash out in the group stage, you're grasping at straws. Mitoma and Son could miss up to seven matches (four EPL) for their respective teams should their national teams advance to the final.

Finally, Mitoma played 90 minutes in 8 of Brighton's final 10 games of the 22/23 season. In that period, he established himself as one of the emerging fantasy football superstars in the league. And he is! But, given all of the factors we've just discussed, try to temper your hype levels. Mitoma will still be a fantastic asset. Draft him wherever you can, just not too early. He's not a first round talent... yet. But if you can snag him late in the second round or at literally any point after that, do it.

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