Fantasy EPL managers usually have short memories - a must given the relentless number of GWs, which provide a new shot at redemption each week - but not when it comes to some players. Hell hath no fury like a scorned manager. Whether due to past disappointment or simply not rating a particular player, here at The Draft Society, we hold grudges. We each have our own personal Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List. Below, we pull the curtain back and detail why these players will never see our draft day rosters! Please Note: This is more of a "Do Not Draft... Until Much Later Than Their Average Draft Position", but that's a much less catchy name!
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Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List
Every manager has a player (or several), for whatever reason, who they refuse to draft and think you should consider not drafting too!
Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | Gavin Wright
It wasn't too terribly long ago that Robertson was in the conversation for the best left-back in world football. Both he and Trent Alexander-Arnold were mainstays in the best Liverpool team in recent memory between the 18/19 and 21/22 seasons. While the Scottish left-back was always a few steps behind TAA in fantasy terms, he was consistently in the top 5 highest scoring defenders at the end of each season. Liverpool's struggles in the 22/23 campaign have been well documented, as has Jurgen Klopp's late-season system change that saw the Reds seemingly back at their best.
While there's still a possibility that Klopp could turn back to the 4-3-3 he's used throughout his tenure as Liverpool boss given the club's revitalized midfield setup, it seems unlikely that he will turn away from the 3-box-3 that yielded such great results to close out the last campaign and that he's used throughout preseason. The principal reason I can't get on board with Robertson as a third-round draft pick this season is that, in this new system, he becomes an auxiliary center-back alongside Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate to allow Alexander-Arnold to push forward into central midfield. Trent flourished in a role that allowed him to capitalize on his superb vision and technical passing ability without the defensive responsibilities he has often come under criticism for, but it's resulted in the opposite being true for Robertson. The former Hull City fullback is at his best bombing down the flank to get to the touchline and deliver a killer ball across goal. So much of his fantasy success in seasons past has come from his chance creation and assists. He'll likely retain some set-piece duties, but, without the license to join the attack whenever he pleases, Robertson loses out on a significant portion of his scoring potential (there were other contributing factors, but a drop-off of nearly 5 points per start from the 21/22 season is a damning indictment of his regression).
Even if Liverpool do improve on their performance from last season, I can't imagine a world where Robertson jumps 30-35 places up from his 68th overall rank without a return to the 4-3-3. If they stick with the 3-box-3 system, as expected, there's even a possibility the club could look to find a more suitable CB candidate to occupy his space in the squad. That would have been unthinkable a few seasons ago, but Klopp and co. have proven this summer that they're willing to move on from players who had formerly been stalwarts in the team. I still think Robertson will be worth drafting, but I wouldn't recommend him being your first defender if you're looking to take one in the first 5 rounds. If he falls later than that, he's got enough upside potential to be a value pick there that you wouldn't feel too awful about if it didn't work out.
Kai Havertz | Arsenal | DraftLad
Havertz's ADP is 45. His consensus rank is 61. Frankly, I think both are ridiculous (and I am an Arsenal fan - biases out in the open). His projected WAR rank is 122 from 19 starts and 8.8 fantasy points per start. The case for Havertz is: he's an expensive, pretty young, high-potential player on one of the best teams and attacks in the league. The oddsmakers have his over/under goals at 9.25 (meaning that's how many goals he's expected to score on average this season), comparable with Martinelli (9) and Odegaard (9.5). The case against him is everything else. In terms of role, Arteta has over and over again referred to him as a midfielder. Havertz himself has talked about playing, and liking, his new attacking midfielder role. In preseason, he has predominantly played as a left-sided 8, pushing forward to support the attack with late runs into the box and getting involved in crosses. Who played that role last season, albeit likely with less attacking and more defending? Granit Xhaka, who only averaged 7.9 PPS (higher xPPS). He had his purple patches, getting the occasional return, which you can reasonably expect from Havertz as well, but he also had a median PPS of 6.0, 40% GACS, and many low points days.
Speaking of production, Havertz will likely have an even lower floor than Xhaka. Xhaka often relied on defensive statistics like tackles and interceptions to make up for a lack of returns. Havertz is a different type of player and will likely have to rely more on key passes, aerials, and shots which can be harder to come by in tougher matchups. I do think he'll have a higher ceiling than Xhaka due to his progressive passing ability and knack for getting into the box (with Gundo-esque late runs or back-post headers), but I think the high variance nature of his low floor will frustrate many managers. His forward position, while inaccurate, may help with that high-variance perception though.
More important, in my opinion, are the opportunity and minutes concerns. Despite the big name and bigger price tag, Havertz does not look likely to be nailed in the Gunners' lineup, particularly early in the season. In harder matchups, he'll likely be competing with Declan Rice for the 8 role (with Partey as the 6) because Arteta will want more balance and defensive solidity in the midfield. Even in easier matchups, Leandro Trossard has been impressive in that left AM role in preseason and Emile Smith Rowe should eventually compete there as well. Yes, Havertz can play the other attacking positions, but currently Nketiah and Balogun are the backups at ST, and Trossard and Nelson are the backups on the wings. There's plenty of competition everywhere, as intended. As for that goals betting line, I'd take the under, but I'd also bet on a fair few number of his goals coming from sub appearances and not starts when he's useful to your fantasy team. Havertz's upside is Gundogan without the set pieces or floor, his downside is Xhaka with fewer starts. I don't like either of those outcomes at the end of the 3rd round, let alone the 5th.
Mason Mount | Manchester United | RobbieP
Despite being very high on Mason Mount in the previous season at Chelsea, the move to United has left me pessimistic about his upcoming fantasy prospects. I'll start with this quote from an interview with Mount after his debut for United in preseason, as it is quite revealing in terms of where Mount is going to be expected to play next season:
"I really liked that role [No.8] today, being able to drop in deep and get on the ball and start the play from a bit deeper, but also having the freedom to get forward and get in the box and try to make the runs in behind and help the press. I really enjoy that position, being able to do both sides and also being able to start off the press, like when I nearly had that chance. I thought it worked really well."
While Mount operated in very advanced no.10/forward positions for Chelsea, he is expected to come in and play the deeper no.8 role at United this season. His main strengths over Eriksen (who he will be replacing or at least competing with) will be greater energy and pressing which should admittedly allow him to get forward a bit more than Eriksen did, but his primary role in that position is to keep the ball and recycle possession. While very useful for Ten Hag's tactics to gain better control of games (see also the signing of Onana - a good distributor), unfortunately you don't get any points for making lots of passes in midfield in Fantrax Default Scoring. The next knock is another big one: Mount derived a lot of his points at Chelsea from set pieces, even in a bit of an off season for Chelsea (with just 20 starts after various injuries) he relied on set pieces for 21% of his points! However, at United he's walking into a different landscape entirely; he definitely won't be taking pens over Bruno; Shaw takes all lefty corners and free kicks; and he will have a fight on his hands to take any righty corners or free kicks off Bruno (who shared with Eriksen last season).
While there is always the potential for things to change and evolve throughout the season, not least an injury to Bruno (but when has that guy ever missed a game!), Mount's Fantrax value really should take a huge hit at United. However, if ADP is anything to be believed he is being drafted at 23 on average, which seems pretty ludicrous given all the risks to his points production. My ranks put him at 47, consensus 48, projections even lower, and I would urge you not to gamble on him much before then.
Solly March | Brighton | Draft Genie
Solly March was a true diamond in the rough last season. Probably on most waiver wires post draft, or a gamble by some in the late, late rounds, he turned out to be a top 10 player, with 14 PPS, and 7 goals and 7 assists. His ghost points were incredible as well with an average of 10.1 per start, 4th among all players. This may confuse a lot of you. Why can't March at least come close to those heights? Well, I think March is on course for a reality check. This past season was by far March's best, and while he surely is improving as a player, I just don't think this level of both attacking and fantasy production is sustainable for him.
To start, Brighton will be competing in Europe, and as I've already discussed in Genie's Hot Takes, I expect this to hurt their results. I'm getting similar vibes to West Ham of last year - despite qualifying for the Conference League, they barely escaped relegation, coming in 14th. While Brighton might do better than that, this team just doesn't have the star power and depth to compete on all fronts. I expect all Brighton players to take a hit, but March in particular. While there are a few rumoured new signings, and Joao Pedro already signed, March should still be a first-choice player in the XI. But that doesn't mean he'll continue his same production. I don't think rotation should be a worry here for March, but if he enters a period of poor form, I do think he could earn himself a spell on the bench. De Zebri could always throw in Enciso, Ferguson, Pedro, or even play Gross/Gilmour out of position if March isn't impacting the team positively.
Brighton have a great schedule in August, but things start to get a lot tougher in September, the same time European competitions start to kick into gear. Teams will be treating Brighton like a top 6 team, and I expect fatigue to set in fast. Brighton are also losing Mac Allister, a player who truly helped them tick. His ball distribution and positioning allowed players like Mitoma and March to thrive. His loss will be felt next season, and could seriously affect March.
March is largely going in the early to mid second round. That is way too early for a player that may have just had a purple patch of a season. To take March over assets like Rashford, Maddison, Jesus, Odegaard, Grealish, and even Foden is ridiculous. These players have shown both upside and consistency over multiple seasons, and are on teams that have continuously produced results over the years. This is Brighton's first time being among the "big boys", and was March's breakout year. I am very hesitant to draft a player that scored more goals this season than the previous 5 years combined! I think March will still be a decent player, and one that should go near the 4th round, but not the 2nd round. Be wary of how early you plan to take a player on a team new to Europe, someone who has a lack of fantasy consistency, and could face "2nd season syndrome".
Oleksandr Zinchenko | Arsenal | Ryan Barnes
In keeping with my newfound tradition of friendly fire - I chose ESR as my DND in the last Draft Kit - I'm providing our dear readers with another Arsenal asset to eschew. Here comes Zinchenko. After largely playing a bit part role at Manchester City, the Ukrainian immediately slotted into the Arsenal XI at the expense of Kieran Tierney in the LB role and came out swinging fantasy-wise, dropping a mouthwatering 24+ pointer in the opener v Crystal Palace. But that would be his peak. Zinny finished with fewer total points than Rico Henry and tied for 4th highest points among Arsenal defenders. His 7 PPS is almost too mediocre to mention. He did a job in real life, serving as a fascinating tactical game-changer, inverting in the midfield to progress the build-up play and provide superiority in the center of the park, which also helped with maintaining possession when protecting a lead. But that doesn't produce fantasy points. He is also fairly injury prone - his 26 starts last campaign were the most of his career in the EPL (his previous high was 15 but that was under Pep) - and his defensive frailties cost the Gunners a few times in the run-in. Given all these shortcomings, it's incredibly odd to see Zinchenko being rated and drafted so highly (he'll likely go 6th round in most leagues). This is name recognition and/or wishful thinking. We ain't falling for it.
Alexis Mac Allister | Liverpool | Tottiandor
Strangely enough, as I was looking at our Top 150 Ranks and ADPs, I was struggling to decide on who to include in this article. It feels like more than ever the community is very much in tune with our thinking. There aren't many Fred or Ruben Dias in the 3rd round type outliers one could ridicule. It is also evident to see that my main DND nemesis, Reece James, although a bit higher than I would prefer, has been found out for his extreme injury-proneness.
Therefore, I decided to go with a player I would not say I especially want to avoid at all costs. More like he does not come into my thinking at the draft position he is going off the board. I like Alexis Mac Allister as a player, I had been recommending picking him up in my Waiver articles since early last season. But that was at Brighton, where he had some sets; played most of the season as a number 10 (/attacking 8); and generally was pulling all the strings in attack for a free-flowing offence. This time around all those things are a bit different.
Although he only took about 10% of set pieces for Brighton, he was successful at them because he had a set piece reliance of 28%. That means that his PPS of 11.2 from last season would have only been around 8 without these sets. He also started 31 games and got a GACS (goals, assists, clean sheets) reliance of 32%. Although there is some overlap in the set piece and GACs percentages, it is still clear to see that these are two very important pillars of his point-getting ability that will take a big hit at Liverpool. Goal-scoring and assisting will be much less of an important part of his game. Trent and Robertson have a quasi-monopoly on set pieces, which might only be disturbed by the arrival of Hungarian midfield juggernaut, Dominik Szoboszlai.
The other reason I am looking at other players is that, with the more defensively-minded players potentially leaving Liverpool, the midfielders who can perform well in a deeper lying position will be tried and used in those positions as the bosses are scrambling for recruits. The targets are mostly raw talents who would benefit from a more experienced player alongside them. All in all, I think Mac Allister will play a fair number of minutes in deeper roles and therefore his scoring ability will further suffer.
I currently have him ranked around 65, which is where his ability to collect ghost points from defensive and offensive actions starts to offer enough comparative value to others in that range.
Diogo Jota | Liverpool | Joe Williams
For anyone who's read my "5 Players Whose EPL Draft Fantasy Prospects Have Worsened in 23/24", you'll know that the Liverpool attack this season both excites me as a fan and worries me as a fantasy manager. Ironically, the player I highlighted in that article (Darwin Nunez) has had a smashing preseason and is doing bits to change my mind about his potential in 23/24. However, I can't say the same for Diogo Jota.
We should begin by looking no further than our player projections. DraftLad's projections have Jota starting 19 matches with a points per start (PPS) of 11.2. While the PPS is respectable, those two numbers in combination account for a projected points total of 213, which puts him 96th overall. As long as one understands how to build a fantasy team that can accommodate a high-upside rotation piece, there's a lot of value to be had in a player with the 31st-highest projected WAR per start (and 47th in total WAR). The problem, dear reader, lies in his ADP (average draft position).
While I have less patience than most for a rotation piece, there's immense value there when Jota starts. However, with his current ADP of 54, he's demanding a 4th or 5th-round pick. At this stage of the draft, managers should still be building the backbone of their team. You need players who will contribute week in and week out. Taking a punt on a rotation-plagued 4th round pick means that you'll have to hit on more of your mid-round picks than the average fantasy manager does. If you back yourself to do that, then by all means, take Jota and slot him in every time that he starts. But, if you're more risk-averse, you may want to opt for someone like Willian (29 projected starts; 9.2 PPS; 262 proj. FPts) or Enciso (19 projected starts; 10.7 PPS; 203 proj. FPts) who is guaranteed starts in the case of the former, or has a clearer path to more starts in the case of the latter.
Jacob Ramsey | Aston Villa | Draft Genie
Ramsey, unfortunately, suffered an injury at the U21 World Cup that will keep him out for 10 weeks (a September return at best). I don't think he is worth drafting at all anymore with that news. Emery will now get to run out a midfield of Luiz-McGinn-Tielemans for the start of the season, and this may be his preferred midfield going forward. Ramsey can offer cover in more attacking wing roles as well, but there is every chance he is nothing more than an impact sub for quite some time after his injury, especially if Villa are doing well.
Ramsey was a decent asset last season with 9.4 points per start but only 6.2 ghost points per start, showing he was somewhat reliant on his returns for any worthwhile scores. In 31 starts, he managed 6 goals and 7 assists. We can safely predict he will get fewer than 30 starts this year, yet in serious mocks he is still going in rounds 5-7 despite managers being fully aware of his injury. Ramsey is the type of asset you would drop to the waiver wire if he was confirmed for a 6 week injury since other free agents could replicate his week-in-week-out6-week production. To waste a 6th round pick on a player with fewer than 15 returns in his best season, and already confirmed to be missing the start of the season, is a complete waste. You would be better off throwing the dart at someone like Chilwell, or even a safer bet like Doucoure. Villa should be a fun team to watch this season but I strongly advise against drafting Ramsey. Let another manager draft him and get frustrated. Then if you really want him you can get him for a few FAB off the waiver wire or probably at 60% of his draft day value a few weeks into the season, especially if the Villa midfield hit the ground running.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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