Overvalued Players This 22/23 Draft Season

Jul 17, 20225 min read

The hype is real - or is it? A lot of factors go into how we feel about players in the run up to the Fantasy EPL draft. How did they finish this season? Did they join a better team or system over the summer? Were they injured? Will they benefit from another season in a new league? All of these things are considered when analyzing and predicting value for the upcoming draft. We have you covered with players whose value is inflated and should be avoided that early, as well as some undervalued assets that could outperform their average draft positions.

Check out our 22/23 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!!!

Overvalued Fantasy EPL Players

Every draft has its players that have too much hype and are being taken way too early. It is crucial to recognize who they are, try to avoid them, and opt for value instead. These players are all coming off decent seasons but it is a deceptive facade. They'll be good but not that good, and they'll go earlier in the draft than they should. The new boys Haaland & Nunez will need more time, Bowen should come back down to earth a bit, Bruno Guimaraes can't keep up his blistering form, and the temptation to reach for promoted players still does not pay off.

Erling Haaland & Darwin Nunez | Manchester City & Liverpool Forwards | ADPs: 7 & 14

Shiny new toys usually are overpriced. The lanky number 9s coming to Blighty from the German & Portuguese leagues this summer are no exception. The EPL's two best and most attacking teams by a mile, Man City & Liverpool, both finally got the prolific number nines they've lacked. Haaland is one of the world's top young talents and bagged an obscene amount of goals with Borussia Dortmund (averaged nearly a goal per game). Meanwhile, Nunez had a breakout season for Benfica, scoring 34 times in all competitions, including against his new team in a Champions League fixture. Two young studs joining two elite teams - what could go wrong? Well, both are coming from inferior leagues and plugging into new & well-oiled systems, which have been devoid of traditional number 9s. Haaland has also had some injury issues. He never started more than 28 games a season in the Bundesliga, with muscular injuries frequently popping up. Meanwhile, Nunez really only had one excellent season - that's not a lot of data to instill confidence. Was it a fluke? As you can see, both have their issues. While I think they both come good, it will take some time. It's just too soon to be drafted that early.

Estimated Draft Pick: Early/Mid First Round for Haaland; Late First Round for Nunez

Draft Pick Value: Late First Round/Early 2nd Round for Haaland; Late 2nd Round/Early 3rd Round for Nunez

Jarrod Bowen | West Ham United | Midfielder | ADP: 16.6

The surprise of the draft, Jarrod Bowen went from 7th Round Pick to 7th highest scorer this past season. He dropped 12 goals and 10 assists, boosting his points per start from 8.8 to a mouthwatering 13 along the way. Was this an aberration or can he keep this going? This was likely a one off. Not that he won't still be a good player, but I just don't expect these types of numbers this season. He has a goal/assist dependence slightly higher than Diogo Jota and his ghost point average of just over 7 isn't enough to get him to first round numbers unless he continues delivering this crazy amount of attacking returns. West Ham will have European football again and Bowen may also be in the England World Cup squad. This further adds to the mileage he clocked this past season. He hasn't been consistently elite yet, coming into the EPL like a house on fire, levelling off in his second season (9.9 ppg to 7.4), and then balling out this past campaign. He's due for a slight dip; not a first or second rounder for me.

Estimated Draft Pick: Late First Round/Early Second Round

Draft Pick Value: Third Round

Bruno Guimaraes | Newcastle United | Midfielder | ADP: 43.9

In a January window full of ballers who hit the ground running, Bruno Guimaraes was exceptional. Posting 5 goals and 1 assist in just 11 starts, the Brazilian helped the Magpies transform into one of the top performing clubs in the 2nd half of the season under new manager Eddie Howe. Very impressive, indeed, but is it sustainable? These are incredible numbers, especially for a holding/non-attacking midfielder, which is why he will go earlier than he should in many drafts, particularly to managers who were blessed to pick him up this past campaign. There's just not enough data for me to expend such an early pick on him. I'll let others take that punt.

Estimated Draft Pick: Late 3rd Round/Early 4th Round

Draft Pick Value: 5th Round

Many Promoted Assets (Same As Last Year)

Everyone wants to be the hipster in the draft, pretending to have avidly watched the Championship last season. This savant in the draft is knowledgeable about relatively unknown players from the newly-promoted teams. I tried this by drafting Ruben Neves early in the 2018/2019 draft - and it cost me. The fact is that very few of these assets pan out (Mitrovic in Round 3 in 2019/2020, anyone?) and often it is the overlooked ones from these Premier League new boys that prove to be the real gems. There is usually one or two standouts from the Championship that are fairly predictable (e.g., Toney). Otherwise, it's largely a crapshoot.

As a result, you can usually wait a few GWs for these diamonds in the rough (e.g., Pinnock, Norgaard, Kamara, etc) to emerge on the waiver wire. This is due to these assets either going undrafted or the fact that many managers drop promoted assets early in the season (even earlier than usual/earlier than more trusted players) due to the unknowns and lack of faith in players from new teams. To add insult to injury, all 3 promoted teams face brutal schedules early doors. This will further accelerate this collective dumping of promoted assets onto the waiver wire. So either trust in well-researched players or just wait and monitor the wire closely (I favor the latter). Given the rough early fixtures, many of these assets will be dropped/available by GW 6 when the schedule is more favorable. Promoted team assets will likely go way too early yet again; don't fall for it.

Honorable Mention

Kieran Trippier: He had an amazing run in his return to the EPL before his terrible injury. Can he stay fit & keep it up? Trips has always been a good fantasy asset but too many question marks for Round 3.
Jose Sa/Alisson: Did Emi Martinez in the 8th/9th Round last season teach us nothing? Both Sa & Alisson are good GKs but don't overreach.
Ivan Perisic: An older wingback classed as a Midfielder. He's also nursing a knock from last season & has Sessegnon & even Doherty who can also play in his position. He doesn't warrant a 4th/5th round pick.
Allan Saint-Maximin (ASM): He finally kept relatively fit but how will his fantasy numbers be impacted by the fact that he likely won't be the only attacking outlet? TBD but early round 2 is too early for me.