Bust % and Reliability % for EPL Draft Assets in the 25/26 Season
- Joe Williams
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
When parsing through the data from previous seasons, it’s easy to get swept up in the flood as the numbers start to jumble together and lose all meaning. Points per game, total fantasy points, ghost points, floor, ceiling, GACS%, and some stat with a triangle... wrapping your head around what they mean, which ones matter, and which ones don’t, can seem a Herculean task. For this reason, I’d like to propose two new stat categories and dwell on them for the remainder of this article. Allow me to introduce you to Bust Percentage and Reliability Percentage. Will these stats alone win you your league? Likely not. But if you go into a draft having spent some time with each of these stat categories, I fully believe it will set you up to draft a consistent high-floor fantasy team that will give you a fighting chance week in and week out. If you’d like to read this article in its entirety, head over to our Pricing Plans page to get access to our full 26/27 Draft Kit, the most comprehensive EPL Draft preseason resource in the business.
To begin, we should define exactly what it is that we mean by Bust % and Reliability %. First of all, this applies specifically to Fantrax Standard Scoring. However, the takeaways absolutely resonate in other scoring formats as well. In short, here’s how we define these stats:
Bust % - accounting for only games that a player started, in what percentage of them did that player score 4 or fewer fantasy points, massively letting down your fantasy team?
Reliability % - accounting for only games that a player started, in what percentage of them did that player score 8 or more fantasy points, setting a solid floor for your fantasy team?
Obviously, these stats alone don’t tell a whole story. However, it’s safe to say that you would love to maximize the number of players you have who, by these metrics, we would consider “reliable” and minimize the number of players who often “bust”. Below, we’ll take each stat and discuss what it reveals, its limitations, and some extra considerations to take into account when using it to sort the player pool.
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Bust Percentage
Below, you’ll find a table showing Premier League players with the highest Bust %. Many of these players are considered valuable fantasy assets, regardless of their tendency to bust. I would argue that a similar player with comparable total fantasy points, however, is much more valuable to your team on a weekly basis than a bust-prone player. While it’s nice to have a few players capable of gameweek-winning fantasy numbers, generally we’re looking for weekly contributors who won’t lose us a gameweek (or several) due to a severely low score.
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