Fantasy EPL Players TDS Analysts Love But Can't Draft

Ryan Barnes
Aug 2, 2024
10 min read

Updated: Jul 31

Valuing a player and being willing and able to spend the required draft capital to get said player is a different matter altogether. Here is a list of Fantasy EPL players the TDS staff would love to draft but likely won't be able to. Please Note: This is based more on these players going earlier than we're comfortable with rather than not wanting to draft them regardless of ADP/when they are being drafted.

Fantasy EPL Players We Love But Can't Draft

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Fantasy EPL Players TDS Analysts Love But Can't Draft

As opposed to the Do Not Draft List, we love these guys. We just don't think we can get them at value. Here is the Fantasy EPL Players TDS Analysts Love But Can't Draft List. As the title suggests, we're not into the whole brevity thing.

Enzo Fernandez | Chelsea | Ryan Barnes

Brighton Attackers | Brighton | Ryan Barnes

My honorable mention goes to the bevy of Seagull wingers. I love you all, all 47 of you. I'd love to draft every single one of you - Mitoma, March, Pedro, Enciso, Minteh, Osman, Adingra, Buonanotte, Cozier-Duberry, etc. Did I forget anybody? You get the point. There is some serious talent in there, and with no Europe this season a few of them are going to ball out. A new manager and all this competition, however, makes it somewhat difficult to ascertain who will step up and show out. When fit, it's largely been Mitoma, March, and Pedro as the best attacking three. But two of those three are coming back from long-term injuries and, again, we don't know who the new gaffer fancies in these spots. So outside of maybe Mitoma or Minteh, I might just sit this one out.

Ryan Christie | Bournemouth | Draft Genie

We all know how big of a Christie fan I am. I rostered him in basically every league last season, and even in the 22-23 season. Christie offers so much on the pitch with his work ethic and never say die attitude. He has improved the rest of his game significantly outside of his finishing, but unfortunately he will not be someone I will be able to draft. In mocks I have seen him go between the 6th-7th rounds, which is too early for my liking. Last year, he boasted a 8.7 PPS with 8.2 ghost points per starts in his 35 starts. He was the definition of Mr. Reliable; with or without returns, you knew what you were getting. He was set and forget in basically every roster that wasn't "stacked", and probably was one of the most underrated FA pickups of last season. This campaign, however ,I believe we will slowly see a changing of the guard with Alex Scott starting to steal both minutes and starts from Christie.

Last season, Christie completed 80+ minutes in 25/35 of his starts. Scott will cause that number to reduce significantly in 24/25. We have already seen in a recent pre-season friendly Scott starting over Christie in a nearly first choice XI for Iraola. We know Iraola is a huge fan of Scott, and will want to bring him into the team slowly. There is just too much risk surrounding Christie's position in the team right now. Despite his worth ethic, and qualities that are truly unreplaceable by Christie, Scott will offer a different dynamic that could add more goals to Bournemouth's game, a feat they were missing especially against the top 6. It is not a question of if, but instead when, the changing of the guard will occur. To spend a 6th round pick on a player with no ceiling, and who could lose his starting role soon, is too high for my asking. If Christie fell to the 10th round or later, I would definitely jump at the chance. But I highly doubt he will.

Kobbie Mainoo | Manchester United | Draft Genie

My honourable mention is Mainoo. I am a huge fan of everything he has to offer United, and think he will be a world-class player. But he only had a PPS of 6.9 in his 24 starts and only 5.4 ghosts. Mainoo is going to occupy a very similar role to this year and will have the odd game where he pops off for 18 points with a goal, but why is a 6.9 PPS player going in the first 10 rounds of the draft? Especially one who will be having an identical role in an identical setup under the same manager. If Mainoo fell to me in round 13 or later, I might be temped as a United fan, but for now he will most likely be drafted way too high for my liking.

Jurrien Timber | Arsenal | DraftLad

Timber is a very talented defender for my team, Arsenal. His English career was sadly stopped abruptly after an ACL injury at the very beginning of last season. But before that, he was heavily tapped to take over the LB job from Zinchenko as a more defensively astute yet still technically gifted full back. He even started the Community Shield and EPL season opener there. Instead, he spent the 23/24 season rehabbing and the Gunners jumped from Zinny and his defensive blunders to a young but unspectacular Kiwior, to an oft injured, yet defensively proficient Tomiyasu, to fill the LB hole. Ben White made the RB role more than his own and Gabriel and Saliba had the most cleanies in the league as a defensive CB pairing.

Now comes the 24/25 season, where Timber appears to finally be healthy, although Arteta has repeatedly said they'd play it safe with him to start the year. Zinchenko and/or Kiwior have been rumoured to be out the door (as has Tierney) but no movement just yet. However, unfortunately for Timber, Arsenal and Arteta have gone out and signed 45m Italian Adonis, Riccardo Calafiori, in a similar mold to Timber, capable of playing LB, LCB, and quite progressive offensively. The 22 year old is coming off a 30 appearance season in the Serie A and looks more than capable of adapting quickly to the Prem. So, while Timber has shown glimpses in preseason and generally looked impressive whenever he's played, he'll face strong competition in every position this year. With his past injury issues, even if he excels, it's hard to see him as an every-week starter.

Speaking of excelling, let's look quickly at the statistical side of Timber's game. He's an excellent ball carrier and passer but neither contribute well to fantasy stats, unfortunately. He's historically not been a high-volume, aggressive defender, so he lacks much defensive floor too. He previously played mostly CB for Ajax, so perhaps with more potential license to roam at LB (or RB on occasion) his attacking stats will improve on a title-challenging team, but I'm not holding my breath. His current 9th round ADP is far too high for me with too many questions about his opportunity (number of starts he'll get) and production in said opportunity (PPS). I'd rather gamble on the likes of Luke Shaw, Connor Bradley, or Malo Gusto around that ADP, who have similar questions about opportunity, but have at least proven their fantasy-point-scoring capabilities.

Mohammed Kudus | West Ham | Tottiandor

Arguably the breakout player of last season, Mo Kudus showed everyone why there was a race and a half to sign him last summer. When West Ham came out victorious from said race while seasoned and broken fantasy managers like myself felt that he might be stunted by Moyes. It was partly true, as it took him until the end of October to make his first start, but the quick counter-attacking tempo that Moyes used last season, along with the talent around him, made him an explosive and exciting player in real life and fantasy. Had the season started on his first start, he would have finished 9th overall at the end of the season. Knowing all this, his ADP at the time of writing,15, doesn't seem to be that high, as he will surely be a starter from day one.

So why am I not going to be able to draft him? Well, exciting, dribbly, attacking players are loved by many, so I expect his ADP to creep closer and closer to the first-round territory, meaning it would take premium draft capital to have him on one's roster. He is being drafted as a MID1. While I don't necessarily disagree with him being a premium asset, hanging my midfield's hopes on him will give me a lot of sleepless nights.

He completed a whopping 124 successful dribbles last season, a third of his fantasy points came directly from this stat and much more indirectly (a dribble leading to a crossing/shooting opportunity). For context 22/23 saw Martinelli top this statistical category with a measly 57. Kudus is far from a one-trick pony, but he will have trouble replicating his production in his second season when teams have a better chance to plan for his style.

My biggest qualm, however, lies with his new manager, Julen Lopetegui. As detailed in the West Ham Flashback, the Hammers were dreadful in defence last season, so it is only logical that the owners were looking for more defensive-minded coaches when selecting Moyes's successor. If Lopetegui's heroics in charge of Wolves 2 seasons ago are anything to go by, his team will be solid but they might find it difficult to score. Wolves scored 23 goals in his 23 games in charge. They recorded an xG of 1+ in only 6 of these games. Long story short, West Ham are expected to be compact, but not free scoring, which will surely hurt the value of all their attackers, including Kudus.

Jarrod Bowen | West Ham | Joe Williams

Let's talk about a previously underrated player named Jarrod Bowen. Why previously? Well, even last summer, you were able to get Bowen in the 3rd round of drafts. This was great value for a player who bagged 8G & 5A in 20/21, 12G & 10A in 21/22, and 6G & 5A in 22/23. Then he just had to go and score SIXTEEN goals in 23/24, placing him firmly inside the top 20 overall scorers last season. Inevitably, when drafters sort by overall fantasy points, this will lead to Bowen likely being drafted somewhere in the 2nd round, which is just a hair too rich for my blood.

Part of the reason for my hesitation is pure PTSD. I didn't roster Bowen in any leagues last year, but I did in 22/23. I have vivid memories of pleading with him through my tele to do something... anything! And at times I also wondered if he was even on the pitch at all. Scores of .5, 2, 4.5, and 3 were not uncommon. Sure, he had gameweeks when he scored 25+, but that was no consolation for the weeks I might have won had he not become The Invisible Man for 90 mins. So naturally, all of that must have changed last year, the one year I didn't draft him. Ironically... not really.

In the 23/24 season, Jarrod Bowen:

Ranked 32nd in points per start (12.0).
Ranked 197th in ghost points per start (6.4).
Had a 48% reliance on goals and assists for his fantasy points (the same number as notoriously goal-dependent fantasy assets like Michael Antonio and Evan Ferguson).
Overperformed his season xG of 13.5 by a full 2.5 goals.
Played out-of-position as a center FWD (where he contributed 9 of his goals and 4 assists) when Moyes finally ran out of patience with Antonio.

I know it's hypothetical, but if you correct for the xG discrepancy and subtract a goal & assist or two - assuming that Lopetegui has a better plan than thoughts, prayers, and Bowen at striker - then Bowen finds himself at about 30th overall in scoring. And that's even lower than I actually have him ranked. So, Bowen in the 3rd round after I've got two more dependable scorers? Absolutely. Bowen in the 2nd round before guys like Gibbs-White, Rice, Rodri, or Isak? Absolutely not.

Luis Diaz | Liverpool | Robbie

It hurts to write this, especially after he had such a blistering second half to the season, averaging 13.5 PPS, and scoring 5 and assisting 5 over that period. Diaz was my pick of the Liverpool forwards (not named Salah) last season if I were to bet on any of them, as he was the only out and out left winger and was best suited to Klopp's transitional style of football, with his high energy, pressing, and dribbling into the box propelling the attack.

However, a new season brings a new manager in Arne Slot, with a more flexible possession based style of play. And given how late the majority of the players will be coming back from International duties, we will see little if any of DIaz and company in pre-season. This is a major risk given the litany of FWDs Liverpool has on the books. While Salah will likely continue on the right given his quality and stature, the central forward and left wing spots are up for grabs - two open slots for four quality players (Diaz, Gakpo, Nunez and Jota). While the latter two have typically been favored centrally, they have played out wide in the past. So it is likely to be Gakpo that is the biggest risk to Diaz's minutes given his stellar form for the Netherlands in the left wing role, surely something that fellow Dutchman Slot will have been keeping an eye on!

Even if Diaz wins out as the preferred left winger, we could see a lot of early substitutions/rotation as Slot has shown to be a flexible manager and one that likes to keep his wingers fresh. In that vein, the quote below from an interview with the Athletic is quite revealing. Last season he would often bring off wingers Luke Ivanusec, Igor Paixão and Yankubah Minteh early in the second half to keep things fresh. In fact, of those 3 players, they only managed to register 5 full 90 minute cameos between them.

"I asked Dennis (Te Kloese, the CEO) at the beginning of the season for a lot of wingers, because you can’t expect every winger to perform in every single game and outplay their opponents," Slot told The Athletic last summer. "So that’s why they are the players substituted most often."

At the time of writing Diaz's ADP is currently at 19, which seems mighty high considering all of the risks above, and certainly not a risk I'd be looking to take until you get to the end of the 3rd round.