Late Season Breakout Candidates: Part 2

This article will focus on Premier League players that have potential to breakout in the latter part of the season. They may not have been very valuable fantasy-wise for the first 27 gameweeks, but they could be for the next 11. The past isn't always the best predictor of the future...

The Breakout Candidates

We will address each player's context, production so far (including some underlying promising numbers), opportunity going forward, and consequential evaluation. Fantasy Value = Opportunity (Starts) + Production (Points Per Start). At least 1 of those must go up for player value to go up.

Rio Ngumoha - Liverpool - Forward - Ros 4% - Comm. Ros 0%

A possible future superstar yet to get his full debut in the Premier League

Context:

• 17yo English right-footed winger

• €15m on Transfermarkt, former Chelsea youth player, current English youth player

• Played predominantly as a LW in youth and senior matches for Liverpool, but occasionally RW as well.

• Started 1 FA Cup game & 2 Carabao cup games this season. 0 starts in the Prem but 9 late sub apps (70’ or later, generally when chasing a late goal)

• Subbed on in GW27 (alongside Chiesa) for Salah & Gakpo and looked electric off the bench at RW, drawing rave reviews from fans & journos. Every decent Liverpool journalist wrote about him starting soon.

• Manager Slot has been consistently mocked for his incessant usage of Gakpo on the LW and continued resistance to play Chiesa or any youth, including Rio much at all this season. He has however showed a willingness to drop Mo Salah in the past.

• After GW27, Slot said, “He has incredible potential, otherwise at 17 years of age you don’t play as many minutes as he does in the Premier League, let alone at Liverpool” and “He’s making progress more and more and that’s why lately you see him playing more and more as well. He gets stronger.", but also, “But as we all know, talent is only the start of a career and you need so many other things – as we’ve shown today, Macca a great example of mentality, that is something you need to get a career at this level.”

Production so far:

• Across his 375 minutes this season in UCL, FA Cup, EFL Cup, and the Prem (3 starts + bench apps) he's averaged 13.3 PP90, 11.6 GPP90, & 14.3 xPP90

• Hasn't played much in Premier League 2 in 25/26 due to consistently being in senior squads. Played 1000 minutes being PL2 and UEFA Youth league in 24/25. Only 1 senior app/start (FA Cup) in 24/25
  

Opportunity going forward:

• Liverpool fighting for a top 4 spot, solid form as of late (3W, 1D, 1L from last 5 in Prem)

• Increased scrutiny on attack, particularly wings as Salah & Gakpo have been fairly unproductive lately (1 goal, 0 assists for Gakpo in his last 9, 0 goals, 4 assists for Salah in his last 9 Prem games). Wirtz is needed at AM with Szobo at RB or CM with the RB's out injured. Chiesa is trusted even less than Rio. Isak out mean Ekitike nailed at ST.

• 3 games in the next week (2 Prem, 1 FA Cup) including 2 against Wolves. UCL knockouts will increase fixture congestion the week following.

• Given age & increased acclimation to the Prem, reasonable to assume upwards (slowly) trajectory. Speed of impact will rely on manager's willingness to give more minutes + taking opportunities when they come + other wingers continuing to not produce.
  

Upside case: 4+ starts, ~60+ mins/start, 10.0+ PPS, turning into a rotational (but sometimes starting) part of a top 4 attack. Productive in starts and continues to steal more and more minutes from Gakpo and Salah to fully breakout in 26/27 season.

Downside case: Slot continues to overly-manage minutes, gets more minutes but in the form of more 30 minute sub apps and FA cup games. Salah and Gakpo continue to be blindly trusted and run into the ground.

Predicted time of breakout: Next 1-3 weeks Evaluation: Pickup now in case he starts in GW28 or 29. Drop if he doesn't. Re-pick up after future good sub app or immediately if starting.

Oscar Bobb - Fulham - Midfielder - Ros 46% - Comm. Ros 59%

A City youth ready to take his chance at his new home

Context:

• 22yo Norwegian winger/attacking mid

• €25m on Transfermarkt, bought for €31m from City in Winter window

• Played off the right mostly for City in 25/26, some AM as well

• Started the first 3 gameweeks for City this season but got injured and only started twice since then

• Seemingly wanted out of City in pursuit of more playtime and Pep alluded to him not really being injured despite missing games towards the end of his City career

• 3 bench apps for Fulham in the Prem so far, 46 minutes in GW27 post Kevin being forced off. 1 FA Cup start.

• Fulham are not the prolific, possession-dominant attack that Man City are.

  
  

Production so far:

• 25/26 for Man City (in EPL, UCL, EFL Cup): 9.0 PP90, 8.3 GPP90, 10.6 xPP90 in 739 minutes (inc. 9 starts)

• For Fulham (in EPL and FA Cup): 8.6 PP90, 8.6 GPP90, 9.0 xPP90 in 157 minutes (inc. 1 cup start)

• For Norway (in Friendlies and WC quals.): 8.7 PP90, 6.7 GPP90, 8.7 xPP90 in 366 minutes (inc. 4 starts)

  
  

Opportunity:

• Injuries! Kevin forced off halfway through GW27 (walking poorly straight down the tunnel). Silva said, "On Kevin, it doesn't look good. We will know more soon. The feeling is not good, but we have to wait." Meanwhile, Chukwueze missed GW27 but seemed to be a minor one. Silva said last week, "After Manchester City, he felt something in his calf, not really serious. Probably, the first session of the next week he is going to be fit to work with the team."

• Adama sold to West Ham and Iwobi playing as a CM (more necessary with Lukic out injured). ESR and Josh King splitting starts at attacking mid

• Harry Wilson has been red hot this season and nailed at RW when fit but might finally be cooling off

• Bobb looked lively off the bench in GW27 at LW and impressive in his FA Cup performance at RW. Silva said after that start, "Okay, our signing in January, very, very good performance from him. You can feel it, the quality in short spaces that is going to give him the decisions (in the final third)"

  
  

Upside case: 5+ starts, ~75+ mins/start, 8.5+ PPS with return spikes, turning into a key part of the Cottagers' attack at LW, RW, or even AM. Another attacker injury (or Chuk's extended) opens up even more minutes. Steals some lefty corners (or minutes) from Wilson.

Downside case: Chukwueze returns and starts in GW28. Kevin's injury ends up minor. Harry Wilson keeps producing and Bobb continues to only get sporadic minutes off the bench. Or Bobb gets 1 start in GW28 or GW29 and performs & ghosts poorly, not to be seen again in the XI for a while.

Predicted time of breakout: 1-2 weeks

Evaluation: Waiver in now before GW28 & 29 in 2 good matchups (and a short-week) for Fulham. Even if Chuk is back fit, Bobb should start at least 1 and is a good upside mid streamer at worst, a continued upside hold at best.

Honorable Mention Longer-Shot:

Jorrel Hato - Chelsea - Defender - Ros 7% - Comm. Ros 15%

A highly-touted youth signing yet to surpass being a depth option with a chance due to injury

Context:

• 19yo Dutch LB/CB

• €35m on Transfermarkt, bought for €44m from Ajax in Summer 25' window

• 3 starts, 9 sub apps (369 total minutes) for Blues in the Prem in 25/26 so far

• 3 UCL, 2 FA Cup, and 4 Carabao Cup starts

• Played 2 2500+ minute seasons for Ajax in the Eredivisie at age 17-18, at mix of CB and LB

• Hasn't impressed for Chelsea much yet and Rosenior chose to start Gusto over him at LB in GW27

  
  

Production so far:

• 25/26 for Chelsea: 7.3 PP90 in the EPL in 377 minutes, but 9.9 PP90, 8.1 GPP90, 9.8 xPP90 in 1100+ minutes (inc. 12 starts across EPL, UCL, FA, and EFL cups)

• 10.3 PPS & 7.1 GPPS in 9 non-Prem starts for Chelsea despite 2.3 PPS and 2.8 GPPS in 3 Prem starts

  
  

Opportunity:

• Cucurella seemingly out for a month plus with a hamstring injury. Rosenior last said on 2/19, "I can’t give an exact timeframe on Marc. He suffered a hamstring injury just before half-time in the Leeds game."

• Gusto the only other real option at LB, but right-footed and unimpressive in GW27

• Rosenior previously said, "It’s a shame not to have Marc available but we have Jorrel (Hato) and we have Malo (Gusto) who can play on that side, so we have really good players that can cover"

• Mid-week GW29 following 28, then continued fixture congestion with UCL knockout stages

  
  

Upside case: Winning the LB role in the short term, 3+ starts in next 5 Prem games, ~75+ mins/start, 8.5+ PPS in mostly tough schedule. Cucurella injury drags on and Hato keeps the job longer than expected. Gusto continues to not impress wrong-footed on the left.

Downside case: Gusto keeps the job, Rosenior doesn't trust the young Hato or even if he does sporadically, Hato doesn't produce fantasy relevant numbers.

Predicted time of breakout: 2-4 weeks

Evaluation: See if he starts in GW28 vs Arsenal. Don't expect much vs the top side but see how he is in real-life and ghost-wise and whether he might keep the job going forward. Add in GW29 if he might/does start(s). Speculatively add for GW30 and 31 if he impresses. Wait and see.

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