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Overvalued 24/25 Draft Premier League Players

  • Writer: Ryan Barnes
    Ryan Barnes
  • Jul 31, 2024
  • 7 min read

Updated: Aug 1, 2024

The hype is real - or is it? A lot of factors go into how we feel about players in the run up to the Fantasy EPL draft. How did they finish this season? Did they join a better team or system over the summer? Were they injured? Will they benefit from another season in a new league? All of these things are considered when analyzing and predicting value for the upcoming draft. We have you covered with players whose value is inflated and should be avoided that early, as well as some undervalued assets that could outperform their average draft positions. For more incredible analysis and draft help check out our 24/25 Draft Kit and our Pricing Plans.

Inflation may force managers to take these players too early in your Fantasy EPL Fantrax draft...

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101.


Overvalued Draft Premier League Players

Every draft has its players that have too much hype and are being taken way too early. It is crucial to recognize who they are, try to avoid them, and opt for value instead. These players are all coming off decent seasons but it is a deceptive facade. They'll be good but not that good, and they'll go earlier in the draft than they should. These are your overvalued draft premier league players. Lucas Paqueta has too much baggage to warrant an early pick, Crystal Palace assets have a little too much hype, William Saliba fails to score well in fantasy despite being the best CB in the league, and reaching for promoted players does not often pay off.


Lucas Paqueta | West Ham | Midfielder

The Brazilian midfielder is often a fun player to watch. He became a staple of the David Moyes starting XI at West Ham and has had a few noteworthy performances, including a hat trick of assists against Wolves last December. In 23/24, he finished with 10 G/A and a PPS of just under 9. These are decent numbers but not worthy of a third round pick, especially when taking other factors into account. First, he will be working with a new manager, Julen Lopetegui, which could help or hinder his fantasy production. Judging by his time at Wolves, it will likely be the former. Second, he is facing a number of gambling charges. For example, there is damning evidence that he purposefully picked up a yellow card in a game after telling his friends back in Brazil to bet on it happening. While he is appealing it, he is very likely to receive a lengthy ban sooner or later. Ivan Toney was granted an 8 month long suspension for much less. So the sword of Damacles is hanging over his head until then. You're tempting fate even if he does perform well. Third, he finished the season with a whimper, averaging just 4 PPS over the last 5 games. He's just too risky for such an early pick.


Estimated Draft Pick: 3rd Round

Draft Pick Value: 6th Round


Crystal Palace Assets

Stagnating under Roy Hodgson, Oliver Glasner swooped in late February and turned the South London club around, becoming one of the hottest teams in the league in the latter stages of the season. Palace finished the campaign by winning six straight and scoring 20 goals in the process. Glasner ball unsurprisingly boosted fantasy production for many Palace players. As a result, folks are pretty hyped to go all in on the Eagles in their drafts. Palace currently boast 5 players in the top 85 in ADP (Eze, Mateta, Munoz, Andersen, & Wharton).


Let's pump the collective brakes a bit. We've seen this before - a new manager balls out in their debut season in the Premier League and then falls flat the following season. Bielsa's freshman campaign was legendary, as was big Ange's first few months. While I still think Glasner is for real, the rest of the league will surely suss him out a bit and recalibrate their game plans against him accordingly. Losing Olise and potentially other top players also won't help. This is not pouring cold water on drafting Palace assets, just a reality check. Slightly lower your expectations, you maniacs.


William Saliba | Arsenal | Defender

Name recognition is a real thing. Real life performances, as we know, unfortunately don't always track fantasy production. William Saliba is the embodiment of this cognitive dissonance. The best defender in the league, he can't even crack 7 points per start in Fantrax. And this is with a league high 18 clean sheets. While the new scoring changes will help defenders, there are better ones to pick in the 6th round. Ones that can deliver more than 5 ghost points per start and don't cling to clean sheet points for dear life. It gives me no pleasure to denigrate this legend but this is draft EPL, not tiddlywinks. Act accordingly.


Estimated Draft Pick: 5th or 6th Round

Draft Pick Value: Round 10 or later


Many Promoted Assets (Same As Last Year)

Everyone wants to be the hipster in the draft, pretending to have avidly watched the Championship last season. This savant in the draft is knowledgeable about relatively unknown players from the newly-promoted teams. I tried this by drafting Ruben Neves early in the 2018/2019 draft (seems like yesterday) - and it cost me. The fact is that very few of these assets pan out (Mitrovic in Round 3 in 2019/2020 is more the norm than the Serb in the 2022/2023 draft) and often it is the overlooked ones from these Premier League new boys that prove to be the real gems. How did folks enjoy their multiple Burnley winger picks this past season? Did the countercultural afterglow and self congratulations wear off come September? In truth, there are usually only one or two standouts from the Championship that are fairly predictable (e.g., Toney) although there don't seem to be any of that ilk in this promoted class. Other exceptions would be promoted players that were recently in the Premier League and can thus be trusted more than others (someone like Brownhill, who also ended up being overrated, and potentially some old Leicester faces this time around). Otherwise, it's largely a crapshoot.


As a result, you can usually wait a few GWs for these diamonds in the rough (e.g., Doughty, Ogbene, Muric, etc) to emerge on the waiver wire. This is due to these assets either going undrafted or the fact that many managers drop promoted assets early in the season (even earlier than usual/earlier than more trusted players) due to the unknowns and lack of faith in players from new teams. So if they don't perform immediately, in GWs 1 or 2, they tend to get dropped. To add insult to injury, promoted teams usually face brutal schedules early doors. This will further accelerate this collective dumping of promoted assets onto the waiver wire. Look at Ipswich Town's start to the season as an example: Liverpool and Man City in the first two GWs. Expect to see a fair amount of their assets (maybe even Hutchinson and/or Fatawu later down the line after the value hit turns into sunk costs) on the waiver wire by GW3. So either trust in well-researched players or just wait and monitor the wire closely (I favor the latter). Given the rough early fixtures, many of these assets will be dropped/available by GW 6 when the schedule is more favorable. There will be exceptions, of course, but the majority of promoted team assets will likely go way too early yet again; don't fall for it.


Honorable Mention

  • Emile Smith Rowe: I admit that even I want to reach for ESR early and have unrealistic expectations for him at Fulham. But the first step is admitting that you have a problem. While I think he's a great player, I'll miss him at Arsenal, and I wish him nothing but the best at Fulham, he'll likely be drafted earlier than he should be. Over the past two seasons, he has only started 3 games. And during his breakout season in 21/222, he still only had 21 starts. He scored pretty well but was largely reliant on attacking returns - with only 5ish GPPS. Again, he is still worth a punt but all this should be more priced into his value.

  • Pedro Neto: Spending a 3rd round pick on Pedro Neto is the very definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result. He just can't stay fit. Add a potential move to a team where he won't be the talisman and the result is that he should really be going in the 8th round rather than the 3rd round.

  • Declan Rice: This is the final spray of friendly fire. Rice had a great season - double digit PPS, a share of set pieces, and zero injury concerns. But the 2nd round is just too early for me. While very reliable, he still doesn't have the WAR/explosiveness to deliver monster scores that can win you gameweeks, which should be a requirement for a 2nd round pick. There is also still a chance that he could play more of a CDM role in some games, especially if Arteta brings in another LCM like Merino or Ruiz. Third or fourth round? I'm in. Second round, not so much.

  • Simon Adingra: The young Ivorian had a standout campaign in 23/24. He took advantage of injuries and nailed down a starting role in the latter stages of the season, delivering 7 G/A and an impressive 9.5 PPS. As a result, some managers are eager to pick him in upcoming drafts. But wishful thinking and/or recency bias has inflated his perceived value. There are just too many cooks in the Brighton kitchen. They currently have a million wingers on the roster. Do we really think that Adingra gets into the lineup over a healthy Mitoma? If the new manager, Hurzeler, continues the Seagull tradition of incessant rotation, like his recent predecessors, he may get a decent amount of starts. But all in all, I just prefer other more surefire targets in the 7th round.

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