Tuesday Tactical Takeaway Gameweek 10
Welcome to the Tuesday Tactical Takeaway, 2nd International Break edition, where we take the weekly look across the Fantrax EPL Draft landscape and ask the important questions: what went wrong, what went right, who is quietly cooking, and who should probably be taking a long, hard look at their squad. We’ll dig into the moves, performances, trends and general nonsense that shaped the week and, most importantly, figure out what actually matters going forward. Sometimes a development changes the entire draft landscape, sometimes it changes absolutely nothing; our job is to try to work out which is which. If you're not interested in touching grass just quite yet, look no further and lock in for the next fifteen minutes.
A minor preamble before we get into things: I'm going to reference quite a few statistics and metrics throughout this piece, most notably XXPts. If you need a refresher on what that is and how it works, I've linked @Draftlad's in depth explanatory article, as well as the actual scouting tool.
One particularly useful comparison is XXPts (xxPts = xPts + (xGPts − GPts)) against PPS (Points Per Start), which helps us identify players who are underperforming or overperforming relative to the underlying opportunities they're getting in a match. A positive difference between XXPts and PPS suggests a player is leaving fantasy points on the table relative to those opportunities. That could mean missed key passes, shots on target, tackles, goals, assists, interceptions, aerials, successful dribbles, accurate crosses and plenty more. In some cases, that's indicative of a skill issue; in others, it could point to a buy-low market opportunity on a player who's enduring a poor run of form and might reasonably be expected to turn things around.
Conversely, a negative difference suggests a player is outperforming their underlying opportunities, converting more of those opportunities into fantasy points than the expected output would suggest. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it's worth considering whether that level of production is sustainable or whether some regression might be on the horizon.
You thought this was the International Break? Gotcha. It's actually Sack Season. Welcome everyone, take a seat, there's coffee in the back. The first domino expected to fall is Michael Carrick, so by the time you read this he'll likely be out as manager, and perhaps by the end of the week we'll see Pierre Sage banished from Crystal Palace, according to current oddsmakers at least. After that? Murky waters. Regis Le Bris may have bought himself some time with the three points against Chelsea; Matthias Jaissle could be out at Newcastle. Which leads into our next question, who will benefit the most from the fated New Manager Bounce. Older readers of mine might remember I faithfully tracked the New Manager Bounce theory last year, and the study I had referenced had found that a sacking would net a club an average of 7.26 points over the first six matches, basically two wins and a draw pulled from a juicy sample of 168 midseason firings. To those new, welcome to the Bounce House, where copium is aplenty, managerial lifespans are short, and every owner is just doing their best. Over the next few weeks, we'll be keeping a close eye on which clubs stand to benefit, which players could see their stock rise, and whether the statistical bump is actually worth buying into. After all, a new manager can change a team's fortunes, but for Draft EPL managers, the important question is whether they can change your fortunes, too.
Recent Recap
What a week for the Purple Patch, Eye Test and Let's Not Overreact sections; Evanilson (17.5 FPts) continued his scoring trend, benefiting off a goalkeeper who should be tested for colorblindness, Forest got a HUGE win over Manchester City, Estevao was benched, and Dara O'Shea is the only blemish. Dara serving as the only blemish is rather fitting considering his history with me (historically 5 starts, 1.95 PPS) so no surprise there.
The Key Performance Indicators
To kick things off, we’ll take a look at 3-5 of the biggest talking points from the weekend - the performances, trends, tactical wrinkles, and developments that caught our attention and could have a meaningful impact on the Fantrax EPL Draft landscape. Some will prove important; some will prove to be nothing more than a brief statistical curiosity.
Thierno Barry Choreography, Everton without Jack
Thierno Barry is the kind of Fantrax asset who can swing a matchup with his on-field upside while making every goal even more entertaining with celebration dances that deserve and acquire their own highlight reel. He's a rare forward who provides a safe ghost floor without a goal with real pop, despite the goals sometimes bouncing off body parts other than his cranium and/or feet. It's fine! They count just the same.
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