EPL Draft Early Mock Draft Analysis - July 9, 2024

Recently, TDS organized the second EPL Draft mock draft of the 24/25 EPL Draft season through Fantrax. We got a handful of veterans from the Draft Community together to give it a go. This article will analyze briefly the results of that mock draft. Mock drafts, to any uninitiated, are a fantastic way to gauge changes in player valuation from last season, as well as to begin to tweak your draft strategy. This will be one of many mock drafts hosted by TDS. Future mocks will be open to any who are members of The Inner Circle or have purchased our 24/25 Draft Kit . Check out our Pricing Plans to get in on the action!

Podcast Analysis of the FIRST Mock Draft of the Season!

I also recorded a podcast episode of The Key Pass Collective during which I analyzed the first mock draft of the season, which took place on July 3rd. It was a ton of fun and can be found here if you'd like to listen!

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101. Dominate your draft!

Early EPL Draft Veteran Fantrax Mock Draft Analysis

Let's jump into the results of this mock draft! As a reminder, Fantrax default scoring has slightly changed this season. The main amendment is that now defenders no longer get double punished for the first goal against. They lose the clean sheet, but only get penalized -2 for the second and further goals against. Finally, this was a 12 team serpentine mock draft, which means that the last pick of the first round gets the first pick of the second round. The draft proceeds in that way for 16 rounds.

Special Thanks: Shout out Draft Alchemy for helping me turn this draft board into more digestible round-by-round images.

Round 1

The top five in this draft will likely be repeated in most mocks (and real drafts) that you see this summer. I'm calling them the "Power Five." Take them in any order, honestly. It's hard to go wrong. The rest of this round contained solid picks, but those managers will have had to pay a bit more attention to who their second pick might be. In other words, if you take Watkins in the first, is there a MID available in the second round or do you simply want to take the best player available?

Round 1 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Palmer - The top performer from last season in terms of PPS (points per start) at 5 overall is a win.

Safest Pick: 

Bruno - He's been Mr. Consistent over the last couple of seasons, missing almost no time. An elite fantasy asset with almost no risk.

Riskiest Pick:

Son - Last season was a strange one for the Korean and a frustrating one for fantasy managers. Many of his points came in huge hauls with many other weeks completely barren. He would need to improve on his ghost points to warrant this pick.

Too Early:

Diaz - He ended the season like a house on fire, but he went through long spells of the season where he struggled to make an impact (in both real life and fantasy). He was 39th overall in PPS. Is he really a 1st round pick?

Round 2

In case the image doesn't make it obvious, the second round is your chance to get a MID 1 if you haven't already in the first. Or, in the case of picks 10 and 11, the second round is a chance to get your second MID 1. We'll see how that pans out for their forward line. Given that MIDs start to thin out drastically after this (combined with the fact that quality MIDs were hard to come by last season), it seems like you want to make sure to have at least one MID in the first two rounds. Plus, as you'll see, there's FWD value to be had later.

Round 2 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Alexander-Arnold - With the new scoring for DEFs, Trent would have scored almost 14 PPS last season. He's a borderline first rounder.

Safest Pick: 

Gordon - There's risk around many of these players, whether it be rotation concerns, a Saudi swoop, or poor form, but not for Gordon. He's a nailed starter whether he's at Newcastle or any other team he's rumored to be going to.

Riskiest Pick:

De Bruyne - Links to Saudi are heating up for the midfield maestro. Add to that the fact that he's been playing all summer, he's generally injury prone anyway, and he faces rotation even if he does stay at City, and that makes for a high-risk, high-reward play here in the second.

Too Early:

Bruno G - He hit an incredible purple patch at the end of last season. Before April 6th, he was averaging 9.5 PPG (just below Bailey, Sarabia, & Gallagher), a respectable and probably more realistic expectation for his fantasy output. Unless he continues to average a goal or assist every single match, he won't deliver on round 2 value.

Round 3

If you took a quality MID in the first two rounds, you're greeted with welcomed, high-quality depth in that department in round 3. Alternatively, there are still surprisingly good FWDs available for those who want to bolster their attack. Try to limit your risk in round 3, because there are dependable options here like Rice, Toney, Jackson, and McNeil who will likely overperform their current ADP.

Round 3 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Rice - Let's not forget that by the end of the season, Rice was taking many of the set pieces for Arsenal. Plus, he was a dependable, formidable fantasy asset basically all season. He's incredible value here.

Safest Pick: 

Tarkowski - The picture of safety in a draft pick, Tarks finished as the top defender last season and will deliver consistent ghost points for your team whether Everton win or lose. The new scoring change only benefits him this season as well.

Riskiest Pick:

Jesus - This analysis writes itself. Where does he play in this Arsenal squad? How many minutes will he accrue? Who in their right mind would bench Havertz for Jesus after last season? Did you just spend a 3rd round pick on a super sub? I think... yes.

Too Early:

Mitoma - The Japanese midfield maestro let managers down last season between his prolonged injury and his poor form. Even when starting, he didn't deliver on the hype following his 22/23 season. This is a more reasonable draft slot than what he demanded last season, but it's still a round or two early for me considering the question marks surrounding his form and fitness.

Round 4

Many managers decided to pull the trigger on their first defender in round 4, which makes sense after drafting some top-tier MIDs and FWDs. These DEFs are what Draft Genie calls the "secondary elite" group behind Trent and Trippier, and are well worth a round 4 pick. Also, notice that most of the FWDs in this round find themselves here because of a certain level of risk or rotation. You probably want a FWD1 before you get here.

Round 4 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Neto - There's obvious injury risk with Neto. And there have even been some transfer rumblings. But if neither come to fruition, he's capable of delivering round 2 value for your fantasy team.

Safest Pick: 

Munoz, White, & Porro - As mentioned above, these DEFs are a great pick here. They'll deliver weekly value for your fantasy team and have a defined spot in the XI, though their ceiling will be lower than a player like Garnacho or Neto.

Riskiest Pick:

Nkunku - Who else could it be? We have seen 429 minutes from him in the Prem. I get the argument, though. If not now, when? And I actually agree. He was bought to be the future and the future is now. But the risk is also clear.

Too Early:

None - Well done, drafters! Jota is the only real candidate for this section, but with the last pick in the 4th, we can't blame that manager! And one could argue that Virgil's best days are behind him as a fantasy asset, but he still ended the season with the 4th most points among DEFs.

Round 5

It's interesting to watch the quality of the MIDs in particular just diminish as we move along in the draft. That being said, if you know where to look, there's so much value still to be had. Every week starters like Mac Allister, Muniz, Bailey, and Gvardiol are worth their weight in gold at this point in the draft. Don't start gambling yet. Remember, you still need a starting XI for gameweek 1.

Round 5 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Ward-Prowse - With a new manager in the door, it's highly likely that JWP retakes his spot in the XI and, crucially, direct free kicks. If those pieces fall into place, this 5th round pick becomes highway robbery.

Safest Pick: 

Mac Allister - This pick is safe when it comes to game time. He's a shoo-in to the XI. However, if Liverpool don't bring in a CDM, I worry about his fantasy output falling. Still, in round 5, he's a no-brainer.

Riskiest Pick:

Martinelli - If I talk too much about Martinelli, I'm going to get myself all worked up. I rostered him last season, which was a nightmare. He lost his job to Trossard. Has he regained it? Maybe! Even so, expect 60 mins every gameweek and many, many low scores to boot.

Too Early:

Joelinton - Unfortunately, gone are the days of Big Joe being a fantasy stud. I truly don't understand this pick and would have taken any of the MIDS taken in round 6 over Joelinton, who had a 7.3 PPG average last season.

Round 6

I love when this happens in a draft. The second manager took Magalhaes immediately followed by a reachy panic pick in Saliba. Several other managers later in the round likely looked at their rosters and talked themselves into the idea that they needed a defender stat. Pinnock and Dalot are fine picks (though I think you could have gotten them a round later at least), but Romero is a reach. You love to see it when you're not the one reaching on players. Prepare and stick to your game plan.

Round 6 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Adingra - The midfielder broke out last season and looks to be in line for more playtime. Fantrax will tell you his PPG was 8.6, but a much more useful stat that we keep is points per start, in which Adingra averaged a 9.5 (more than MacAllister, McGinn, and Paqueta).

Safest Pick: 

Magalhaes - Round 6 still feels a bit early to take such a clean sheet dependent player. However, now that DEFs are not being dinged the -2 for the first goal conceded, he becomes even more valuable than his 8.4 PPS would imply.

Riskiest Pick:

Tavernier - I love him as a player and as a fantasy asset... when he's healthy. In 22/23 alone, he missed 15 games and over 100 days to injury. In 23/24, it was 8 games. He's a risky boy.

Too Early:

Saliba - Yikes. This person didn't do their research, unfortunately. All Arsenal DEFs benefit from the clean sheets they often get. But not all Arsenal DEFs get ghost points to pad their fantasy scores. White and Gabriel both secured 6.7 ghosts per start, while Saliba averaged 4.8.

Round 7

We're starting to see a few more dart throws as managers look for upside plays despite concerns around playtime. This is true for Kamada, Sarabia, Mudryk, and Trossard. Others have opted for lower PPS guys with more guaranteed minutes like Wharton and Mainoo. You need a mix of both. A safe team with a low ceiling won't win you a league, but as mentioned before, you also need XI starters.

Round 7 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Semenyo - In the 7th round, you've secured yourself an every-week starter who finished as the 21st overall FWD last season with a PPS of 10.7. Bravo!

Safest Pick: 

Wharton - You can be absolutely certain that this next-big-thing player will feature in almost every minute for Palace this season as he matures into what many are thinking will be a superstar. We're just hoping his fantasy numbers... grow up alongside him.

Riskiest Pick:

James - How could it be anyone else? You have an incredibly high chance of him missing significant chunks of the season to injury. If I gave you an over/under of 10 missed games, would you still take him in the 7th?

Too Early:

Kamada - We need to see some Palace preseason matches before we can jump to these kinds of conclusions about Kamada. Despite the playtime concerns, I would much rather have had Trossard there... or Iwobi or Enciso or Pereira.

Round 8

There's still a surprising amount of dependable talent here with very little risk! In round 8, guys like Iwobi, Doucoure, and Mavididi will absolutely return value on this pick with a nailed spot in the XI. If you have 2-3 dependable MIDs already, this feels like a great spot to take one with some major question marks, but similarly major upside. Note: Dewsbury-Hall completed his transfer to Chelsea before this mock, which explains why he's gone so late and why he's not mentioned as low-risk.

Round 8 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Iwobi - Spend some time with Iwobi's numbers and you'll understand why this is a great value in the 8th. With a 10.1 PPS average, 7.7 ghosts per start, and only a 25% reliance on attacking returns for his fantasy value, this pick is savvy.

Safest Pick: 

Also... Iwobi - In terms of minutes, dependability, and fantasy output, he's simply by far the most dependable asset of this bunch... as much as I would have liked to award a different pick.

Riskiest Pick:

Rashford - If you didn't see this coming, you didn't watch United last season. Rashford was garbage for fantasy and garbage in real life. His form was nonexistent. He was dropped from the team and may not even start the season in the XI.

Too Early:

Diallo - To be fair, in researching why anyone would take Diallo in the 8th, I came across several United accounts who believe he'll be in the XI to start the season. But I have to think you could have gotten him much (if not much, much) later.

Round 9

Round 9 Call-Outs

Another round rife with talent! This mock is going a long way to encouraging me that no matter which strategy you start the draft with, you'll be able to make up for any positions you're lacking in with shrewd picks in the middle rounds. Need a MID late? Here's 9.6 PPS Pereira! Need a 3rd FWD? DCL would be perfect in that role. Or roll the dice a bit on Igor (especially is Toney leaves). The one thing I don't love doing here is gambling on unsure things at DEF. There are so many week-in, week-out starters left at DEF. So why would you gamble on a guy like Konate who lost his job at the end of last season and is incredibly injury prone? It is worth noting that Madueke is classified as a midfielder this season!

Best Value: 

Pereira - I hinted at it above, but Pereira finished with more fantasy points in 23/24 than players who went much earlier in the draft like Doku, Barkley, MacAllister, Martinelli, Paqueta, and Szoboszlai.

Safest Pick: 

Andersen - The epitome of a set-and-forget DEF 2 or 3. You don't want him leading your defensive line, but he'll provide a solid spine. With the 8th most points at the DEF position last season and hoping to see a bit of a bump due to the new scoring, he's a very safe 9th round pick.

Riskiest Pick:

Konate - As said above Konate is a risk here. There are other, more certain defenders you could draft at this point, and it remains to be seen how much Slot will trust him.

Too Early:

Hwang - I can't stand Hwang as a fantasy asset. While I'm sure he's a great guy, he's a dumpster fire in EPL Draft. With a floor of 1.1 "points" and a GACS% of 54, he's ridiculously goal dependent. And as for his 8.6 PPS last season, he overperformed his xG by a full three goals. I'm staying away.

Round 10

Round 10 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Hutchinson - We've seen MIDs on bad teams succeed on the fantasy footy pitch. Think about Buendia on Norwich, JWP on Southampton, and Gibbs-White on Forest. Hutchinson was starting to put up promising numbers for Ipswich Town last season and they have just made him their club record transfer.

Safest Pick: 

Estupinian - When we converted last season's numbers to the new DEF scoring, Estupinian's fantasy points per 90 jumped from 9.6 to 11.5. And, it would be hard for him to have a worse year that he did last year. The only element of risk here is whether 19-year-old Valentin Barco can usurp Pervis, which seems unlikely.

Riskiest Pick:

Paqueta - Is "risky" even the proper word for a player who looks more likely than not to face a lifetime ban from English football? If the FA don't find him guilty, you've gotten away with one. If they do, it's like you opted not to pick in the 10th.

Too Early:

Cook - A very middling MID in the fantasy game (41st MID in PPG), Cook feels a lot more like a late-rounder to me. Compared to the upside of so many other players in this round, he just doesn't have it.

Rounds 11-16

Rounds 11-16

Best Values: 

Ait-Nouri (11-1) - Transfer possibility

Timber (11-2)

Richards (11-3)

Wissa (11-5)

Hudson-Odoi (11-7)

Ndiaye (11-8)

Smith-Rowe (12-3) - Transfer possibility

Richarlison (12-4)

Senesi (12-7)

Udogie (13-1)

Nketiah (13-10) - Transfer possibility

Boly (14-4)

Sterling (14-6) - Because... what if?

Werner (14-11)

Justin (15-5)

Guehi (16-1)

Players I'm Not Interested In: These guys are basically just weekly streamers. You can find comparable players on the waiver wire. Spend your draft capital on players who offer more of a reward.

Wan-Bissaka (11-9)

Botman (11-12)

Garner (13-9)

Kluivert (13-6)

Casemiro (13-3)

Ake (14-9)

Lemina (14-8)

Gray (14-1) - One for the future

Osman (15-9) - One for the future

Faes (16-2)

Lallana (16-10)

Wieffer (16-11)

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!

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