Chelsea 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Bantah Boyz
- Aug 3, 2024
- 12 min read
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Chelsea's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Chelsea Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Chelsea 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Chelsea Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Chelsea Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Chelsea's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Chelsea player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Blues' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Chelsea fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
After only 29 starts, Cole Palmer ended up as the 2nd overall scoring asset by the end of the 23/24 season and so it is no surprise that he is projected to be a top 5 overall asset for the upcoming 24/25 season. However, given the managerial shuffle for Chelsea and possible change in tactics, there is no guarantee that Cole starts 38 games under Maresca. Nevertheless, Palmer probably doesn’t need to start every game to still end up as a top 10 overall scoring asset, even though his projected 24/25 PPS (Points Per Start) of 15.5 is 4 less than his 23/24 PPS (19.5). Cole will most likely be drafted within the first 5 picks in Round 1 of most drafts and would be an absolute steal outside of that.
During the Blues' USA preseason tour, Maresca has highly praised Christopher Nkunku’s ability and flexibility in terms of the multiple positions in which the French FWD can be deployed during games. Although Nkunku’s 23/24 season was an absolute write-off due to a lengthy injury (sustained during Chelsea’s previous preseason tour), there is massive hope for him as a FWD-1, not to mention he has also been the primary penalty taker in Palmer’s absence. Managers will probably need to draft Nkunku in Round 3 if they are hoping to secure his services for their roster. Another Chelsea FWD that managers are eyeing up at the moment is none other than Nicolas Jackson. The Senegalese FWD surpassed most managers' expectations by finishing as the 3rd top scoring Chelsea asset in his debut season despite his woeful conversion rate in front of goal having missed the 3rd highest number of big chances (23) in the league. Although Jackson should still be a Round 4-5 pick, there is some doubt about how many regular minutes and starts he will see under Maresca, all while trying to recover from an ankle injury that has kept him out of the action during the majority of the Blues' preseason tour. The remaining two FWDs in the Chelsea ranks are also of opposite profiles, Sterling who is a bit of a veteran and Guiu who could be a star in the making. Managers will most likely be drafting Sterling given the fact that he still maintained a similar PPS (11.0) to Jackson, despite only starting 22 games. However, there is a very good chance those number of starts drop makes Raheem a very late draft pick or even an asset managers should grab as a free agent or waiver wire pick-up during the season.
Assuming Gallagher leaves Chelsea this summer, the three MIDs that are projected to start the most games are Caicedo, Fernandez and Dewsbury-Hall, with the last of the three listed players going the earliest in most drafts (Round 9). This should come as no surprise as Dewsbury-Hall was a key part of Leicester's success in winning the Championship, along with personal accolades such as the Players' Player of the Season and Men's Player of the Season. Caicedo might not be worth a draft pick but Fernandez could be a gamble that pays off, having been projected to score just under 9 PPS. However, if you have an appetite for high risk and high reward, then consider drafting Madueke or Mudryk, particularly in that order. Madueke is projected to have a few more starts than Mudryk and score at a better PPS rate as well. There is also a chance that Madueke could take the odd penalty as he has had to opportunity to do so during the Blues' preseason tour.
Lastly, let's focus on the DEFs at Chelsea. Although the Blues have a very tough start to their 24/25 campaign, some assets like Reece James should still be considered as a pick during your draft. James currently has the earliest ADP of all DEFs (Round 5), while Colwill has the most projected starts (23). In spite of the multiple injuries and layoffs James has had to deal with over the last few seasons, a successful surgery might have finally put those issues to bed and we may see the England DEF start more games than expected, especially given his tactical flexibility as he can play at CB, fullback, and midfield if needed. Managers might also consider handcuffing James with Malo Gusto, for at least the first few games of the season due to James' suspension. Chilwell is the next Chelsea DEF that is going in drafts. But managers should probably consider either Cucurella or Colwill as another handcuff as the latter two could have more playing time in Maresca's set up. Finally, the last player worth drafting as a 12-13 Round pick is new boy Tosin Adarabioyo. Tosin had a knack for scoring a plethora of ghost points during his time at Fulham, so most managers will gravitate towards him as an entry route to the Chelsea defence.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Chelsea players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Position: MID
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: 100 - 112 (12 Team League: Round 8/9)
Analysis: It is never easy to translate a player's performance in the Championship into relatable Premier League fantasy points due to the massive gap in talent and level of difficulty. However, we can still draw some conclusions from some of the main metrics, especially since Dewsbury-Hall will be playing under Maresca again, the same manager he played under at Leicester during their title winning campaign. During the 23/24 Championship season, KDH racked up 14 assists and 12 goals, along with 109 Key Passes and 30 Shots on Target (SOT). Assuming KDH is to be deployed as one of two 8's, he will also have the opportunity to rack up other ghost points via Dribbles (CoS), Interceptions (Int), and Tackles Won (Tkw). KDH's points ceiling is also potentially higher as Maresca's systems tend to allow his 8's to make attacking runs through the middle, which bodes well for attacking returns. This is reflected in KDH's only appearance for Chelsea during their preseason tour - he delivered an assist in his first 45 minutes. Given how well Gallagher thrived during the 23/24 campaign, Fantrax managers could be drafting an absolute gem halfway through their draft.
Christopher Nkunku
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: 62 (56th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 5.3 (2 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 30 - 36 (12 Team League: Round 3)
Analysis: One of the best assurances in fantasy football for any asset is hearing the coach heap high praise on them, in a similar vein to the way Pochettino backed Nicolas Jackson last season, despite the insane number of big chances missed and his knack for regularly picking up yellow cards. During the US preseason tour Maresca had the following to say about Nkunku: "In the way we want to play, he is the ideal player. He can play in the pocket, in the nine, on the wing." That sounds like Nkunku could be starting most games for the Blues, which bodes well for a team trying to get back into the Champions League spots. Although Nkunku missed most of the 23/24 campaign, lest we forget that the French FWD ended up as the Bundesliga golden boot winner during the 22/23 campaign, scoring 16 goals. In fact, during the 21/22 season, he scored 20 goals and brushed shoulders with the likes of of Robert Lewandowski (35), Patrik Schick (24) and Manchester City's Erling Haaland (22). Nkunku is still considered as one of the most elite strikers in Europe and has been the top scorer for Chelsea during their preseason tour, with three goals in three games, including 2 penalties. Most Fantrax managers might be nervous rostering the Chelsea FWD given the managerial change, but Nkunku could easily be a FWD-1 for any roster.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Stamford Bridge. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Chelsea players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Raheem Sterling
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: 275 (74th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 11 (22 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 186 - 192 (12 Team League: Round 16)
Analysis: It has definitely not been the easiest time for Sterling at Chelsea, as the English FWD starts his 3rd campaign for the Blues under his 6th manager. While this is a crazy stat, it's nothing new for Chelsea fans, of course. On a more positive note, Sterling has improved in his two seasons in the West London outfit, scoring 209.5 fantasy points (8.1 PPS, 23 starts, 6 goals, 4 assists) during the 22/23 campaign and 273 fantasy points (11.0 PPS, 22 starts, 8 goals, 8 assists) in 23/24. So there has been a slight improvement in fantasy output despite the slight drop in starts. Despite this, during the Blues' preseason tour, Maresca had the following to say about Sterling: "We are just trying something different....It's not any reason why Raheem isn't starting, it's just to see things." This could be a cause for concern as Sterling is not only older than most of his attacking compatriots but the uncertainty about his role for the team moving forward may not warrant even drafting him at all. If managers have already drafted the likes of Jackson, Madueke or Mudryk, then Sterling could be a handcuff to start the season, but that's as far as it might go.
Ben Chilwell
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 60.75 (102nd best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 5.4 ( 9 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 186 - 192 (12 Team League: Round 16)
Analysis: In a recent presser during the preseason tour for the Blues, Maresca had the following to say about Chilwell: "Chilly is left-back, for sure. I see him as a left full-back. Chilly's situation is a bit delicate in terms of trying to find a solution for him in his position. Delicate in terms of finding the right position for him." This does not sound promising for one of the top performing DEFs in recent seasons. At one point, Chilwell was averaging just over 10 PPG (points-per-game), comparable with the likes of Trippier and TAA. Chilwell has had routes to points, such as taking corners and some set pieces, but the risk of minutes and starts is too big to warrant a high-to-mid round draft pick. There were times when Chilwell even played as a winger under Pochettino during the 23/24 season. But it was a short-lived experiment without much success. Chilwell even quashed rumours of him training with the wingers on social media, so his positional flexibility may be in question under Maresca. Having seen Maresca play James in a hybrid-role for his systems, Chilwell's lack of versatility may see him drop down the pecking order for the Blues, even below the likes of Cucurella and Colwill.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Chelsea. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Blues that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Chelsea's fantasy assets.
MIDFIELD MINUTES
With the utilisation of the inverted fullback system by Maresca, there is a cause for concern regarding the number of starts and minutes for midfield players like Dewsbury-Hall, Fernandez and Caicedo. During the preseason tour for the Blues, we have already seen the likes of Reece James being deployed as part of a double-pivot system. We also saw this tactic being used in the back-end of Pochettino's tenure when Cucurella was playing in midfield as well, so there might be even more competition for the Blues' midfielders. It would be safe to assume that Caicedo could see the most minutes and starts out of the aforementioned midfielders, but the problem is that he is also probably the worst at scoring fantasy points. So keep this gamble in mind when drafting the likes of Dewsbury-Hall and Fernandez, as they might have to be considered as your MID-4/5 for the 24/25 season.
STARTING STRIKER
There is currently a lot of chatter about big name strikers like Victor Osimhen coming to Chelsea. In the event that they do sign YET ANOTHER PLAYER, Chelsea's attackers might take a dent in terms of number of starts or minutes played during matches or even take some set pieces/penalties. However, there is also a chance that the ceiling of players like Palmer, Nkunku and Jackson could be even higher assuming that whoever comes in can at least finish most of the big chances that Chelsea are able to create. One would assume anyone not named Palmer would be at most risk, especially players coming back from injuries such as Jackson, who have yet to play under new manager Maresca as other Chelsea assets have a head start learning Maresca's new footballing philosophy.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Chelsea's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Chelsea don't have the easiest start to their 24/25 campaign under Maresca as the former Man City assistant coach comes up against his old boss Pep Guardiola and his Premier League champions. The easiest position managers are usually able to stream is DEFs, but the best matchup is against Crystal Palace. This is a tricky fixture as the Eagles seemed to have turned a corner with league performances after the arrival of Glasner in the back-end of the 23/24 season. That being said, MIDs such as Madueke and Mudryk might become streaming options and have favourable fixtures after Gameweek 1. This is also applicable to any FWDs, like Guiu, that might end up as a free agent due to a benching or lack of minutes in Chelsea's first match. So this is a great opportunity for Chelsea-avid Fantrax managers to buy-low on most of the Blues assets not named Palmer.
24/25 Chelsea Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Chelsea lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Chelsea XI shaking out.
Based on the few preseason games that Chelsea have played so far, there are a couple of formations that Maresca has employed: 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3. Although there is a chance that we may not see the likes of Gallagher or Chilwell utilised much for the upcoming season, this should not drastically alter the aforementioned formations – including the arrival of any “big name” centre-forward.
In spite of the fact that James is suspended for the first few games of the season, the Chelsea captain should retain his right-back role for majority of the season, with Gusto filling in during his absence. Interestingly enough, in the alternate 3-4-3 system, the most notable shift in player positioning was James being played as one of the 2 holding midfielders in-front of the 3 centre-backs. This was a similar role that Leicester's right-back Ricardo Pereira played under Maresca during Leicester's title winning 23/24 Championship season. Although recent football fans may find this a strange position for James, it is actually something that the English DEF is familiar with, having played there during his spell at Wigan. Maresca seems to love having players that are versatile to suit his various systems, so Nkunku is another player that could see more starts than his peers, despite having barely played a string of games last season due to his lengthy injury.
There is a chance that both Madueke and Sterling see more game time at the start of the season, since Palmer will be returning late due to his involvement in the EUROs and also Jackson's delayed integration into the team due to his recovery for an ankle issue that was sustained during international duty last season. Cucurella is in the same boat, having won the EUROs with Spain, but he could have a bigger role to play in the Chelsea squad, considering his ability to play in the inverted fullback role, similar to what James was doing during preseason. There is also a massive gamble on which centrebacks Maresca uses most for the upcoming 24/25 campaign. But if preseason is to be any hint, then our guess would be Colwill, Badiashile and new-boy Adarabioyo to play most games.
Lastly, with Gallagher expected to be moving on from the club, you would expect Dewsbury-Hall, Fernandez and Caicedo to be the new midfield combo, but nothing is certain in any manager's debut season at a new club.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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