Fantasy EPL managers usually have short memories - a must given the relentless number of GWs, which provide a new shot at redemption each week - but not when it comes to some players. Hell hath no fury like a scorned manager. Whether due to past disappointment or simply not rating a particular player, here at The Draft Society, we hold grudges. We each have our own personal Do Not Draft List. Below, we pull the curtain back and detail why these players will never see our draft day rosters! Please Note: This is more of a "Do Not Draft... Until Much Later Than Their Average Draft Position", but that's a much less catchy name!
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Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List
Every manager has a player (or several), for whatever reason, who they refuse to draft. Here is a list of ours!
Emile Smith Rowe | Arsenal | ADP 83 | Ryan Barnes
Sacrilege, I know. My dear Emile, it's nothing personal. I love this player in real life, just not in fantasy. For me, he doesn't warrant anywhere near a relatively high draft pick. Yes, he bagged a ridiculous 10 goals (over 3x more than Sancho), registering a goal every other start and an avg pps of 10 even. And he will turn 22 a week before opening kickoff; he's very young and should only get better.
However, Smith Rowe will likely go higher than he should in drafts. First, he drastically overperformed his xG (10 goals from just over 5xG), which means he was a deadly finisher. This is likely unsustainable. Second, he is very goal dependent, especially for a midfielder. This past season, his GACS% was 43% - for comparison, Pascal Gross' was only 13%. So if his goals do dry up, Smith Rowe's bang in trouble. Third, he petered out at the end of the season, only hitting double digit scores twice after January 1st and topping out at 15.5. And he only ended up starting 21 games and was also frequently subbed off early. He seemed to have persistent fitness issues, which doesn't bode well for the upcoming campaign. Finally, and most importantly, ESR will not be a nailed on starter this season - and could see even fewer starts than last season. If Arsenal do indeed buy another winger, Smith Rowe could even be 3rd choice at LW (behind the new signing & Gabriel Martinelli, who finished the season very well).
Arteta could have plans to shift his role to more of a central midfielder in a 4-3-3 but that would take a while. Given all this, I'm going to pass on ESR in the draft. Let him be someone else's problem. If you must have him or you want a quasi-handcuff for Martinelli, you can get him in most drafts approaching the 9th Round.
Mason Mount | Chelsea | ADP 19 | Draft Genie
This may be a controversial one, given the name value and the rumours of all the upside attackers Chelsea will be signing this summer. They could have one of the deadliest attacks around, but I still think Mount will finish outside the top 20 overall players this season. His ADP puts him in the early/middle 2nd round, which is too high for my liking. Mount averaged 14 PPS in 27 starts last season. My prediction is that he sees a slight drop in both his PPS and overall starts. I would put him around 25 starts this season, with the potential influx in attackers, and his obvious key role in the World Cup.
Tuchel will have more options to rest Mount this season, especially if current Chelsea players Pulisic and Werner can offer patches of good form, and stay relatively injury free. Both have shown on their day to be more than capable starters for the Chelsea attack. It is also worth monitoring in preseason, but there are rumours of Tuchel shifting to a back 4 and Mount locking in the #10 role. But I personally do not see Tuchel moving away from his back three. With players such as Reece, Sarr, and Chalobah able to fill in that back 3, as well as a few new signings coming in, I expect him to stick with the 3-4-3 formation. Koulibaly is confirmed and the likes of Ake, and Kimpembe are being heavily linked, which should make a back 3 all but confirmed. Unless Mount is considered a serious option to play in the pivot, there are really only 2 spots for him in this formation, increasing his likelihood of rotation.
Regarding set-pieces, I do expect his set-pieces to decrease with Chilwell fit, Reece in contention, and potentially a new "late" attacking wing signing coming in. This will mean a slight hit to his Key Pass numbers and overall floor, already knocking him down a bit in my books. In terms of Penalty Kicks, he only took one last season, but I don't think he gets himself another barring an unusual circumstance. It is worth noting that in the 6 EPL starts Chilwell got between October 2 - November 20th, Mount only started 2 times, and came off the bench 3/4 of the other times. His only double digit performance came on the back of a 7-0 drubbing of Norwich where he got himself a hattrick. On that note it is worth noting 49% of Mount's total points came against: Southampton, Leeds, Norwich, and Watford. Two of those teams are relegated, and the other two were in the midst of the relegation fight. If Mount happens to miss some of the games vs. relegation teams, expect his PPS to take a decent hit there.
One final point is the addition of the 5 sub rule, which makes it even more likely Mount will fail to complete 90 minutes in matches, especially if Tuchel plans to use him in cup and Champions League games. Chelsea will have a plethora of attackers on the bench and you can bet there will be both half time subs and plenty of swaps around the 60 minute mark. And this may frustrate managers who roster Mount if he is one of those numbers constantly on the substitutes board. It can also mean fewer starts, as Tuchel may choose to introduce Mount only if needed around the 45-60 minute mark depending on the score of the game, and more often than not most people will not start a fantasy asset that starts on the bench in their XI.
While I agree Mount is a very talented player on the pitch, I would not recommend wasting a round 1-2 pick on Mason Mount. If he falls to you in round 3 he is worth consideration, but there may be better assets available depending where you are on your draft board. It is my recommendation to let Mount pass you by, and let some other manager deal with the frustrations I predict he will bring this year.
Reece James | Chelsea | ADP 19 | Tottiandor
'How many games can Reece play at wing-back? If he plays at wing-back during the season on a level where he is decisive, it is a bit less physically demanding in terms of acceleration and high speed in the back three. This helps us have him on the pitch for more minutes.'
‘He can play both positions brilliantly, we only have him once and we need to decide, but this is why we have him there at the moment. I love him in both positions.'
Tomas Tuchel made the above statement on April 19th of this year. Granted, James had just come back from a muscle injury. But out of his 3 seasons as a first team player, he only managed one in which he didn't miss more than 10 + games through injury. So the quote should be relevant regardless.
Let me make something clear right off the bat. I love Reece James, I think he is an amazing footballer with a very wide range of skills. Moreover, I love him as a fantasy asset. It is not every day that you have a defender who can put up 30+ points any gameweek and James can do that. So why do I have him on my DND list? For that, we need to circle back to the quote. For one, as I mentioned, I am very skeptical about James' ability to complete an injury-free season, so I am projecting him no more than 23 starts (he only started 25 EPL games in his one season without a major injury).
More importantly, I see a whole host of red flags regarding his role this season. He should see more minutes at CB and less at RWB. This is what Tuchel said after the FA Cup final last season (no injury comeback this time) after starting Reece at CB: "Reecey played in the back three and we put Azpi up higher. They changed the position because we know about the favourite position of Jamie Vardy in transition and we wanted to have Reecey’s power, Reecey’s acceleration, and top speed against him to eliminate this threat. He did fantastic today. Very very happy."
It has been reported that after the takeover of Chelsea, owner Todd Boehly is performing Director of Football duties having cleared house in the department. Christensen and Rudiger have both officially left the club and Alonso and Azpilicueta are both rumoured to be leaving, with only Koulibaly coming in so far as defensive reinforcement. The major target remains Jules Kounde from Sevilla. As an avid fan of European football, I can briefly tell you about the situation The Todd is in at Sevilla, where he will face off against one of the heavyweights of modern European football transfers, Monchi, who will do his best not to lose both of his starting CBs having already lost Diego Carlos to Aston Villa this summer. This transfer could still happen, but also could be a protracted saga that might be ultimately unsuccessful (Barcelona is also interested in Kounde). Even if it materialises, it will most likely be deep into pre-season, meaning a disrupted start to the season for the defence. To sort it out, Tuchel could deploy Reece James, who has featured there several times, at CB.
But why am I so hesitant to get excited by Reece James at CB? Let us look at the numbers (data from Whoscored, Fbref And FotMob):
vs Real Madrid (120 min): 1KP, 2 ACNC, 1CoS, 1 INT, 1 CLR, 8TkW
vs ARS: 2TkW, 1 CoS, 2 AER
vs CRY (FA Cup): 3 CLR, 1 BS, 2 INT
vs Sou (EFL Cup): 1 INT, 1 BS, 4 TkW, 2 SOT
vs LEI (EPL 20-21): 1KP, 1 TkW, 4 CLR, 3 AER
vs AVL (EPL 20-21): 1 KP, 2 TkW, 1 CoS, 2 AER
Although not a huge sample size, I am pretty confident that "Reece James, the Centre Back" is not a player you would pick in the second round or even the first half of the draft for that matter. He will still mostly feature in the RWB spot and will still have other-worldly scores (please do not tweet at ma saying hehe I told you Reece is God, I know he is). But more uncertainty in defence will see him rack up more and more CB minutes this season.
This is Reece James talking after playing the pre-season game against Charlotte as a RCB:
“Wherever I’m asked to play, I’ll do my best and try to help the team as much as I can.
“I personally prefer to play wing-back out of the two positions but Thomas is the manager and I’m the player so wherever I’m required to play, I’ll always play.
“I’ve played a number of positions before and I’m used to it now so it’s just about adapting on the day.”
Richarlison | Tottenham | ADP 57 | Gavin Wright
As much as I can't stand the guy as an on- and off-field presence, I have to give credit where it's due. Richarlison played a massive role in securing my promotion in the Genie League division last season. His incredible run of form for Everton at the end of last season not only saw the Merseysiders survive the drop, but also rewarded fantasy managers like myself. Richarlison scored 168.5 points in his final 10 starts of the 21/22 season, including 43.5 points in a dramatic 3-2 victory over relegation rivals Burnley. Truly incredible stuff.
But recency bias reigns supreme here. While I rostered the Brazilian for the final two months of the campaign, I was actually able to pick him up off of waivers just before he went on that run. While I feel sorry for the manager who dropped him, I can’t blame him. Richarlison put together a dreadful string of fantasy performances from the beginning of the 2021 calendar year, with scores of 2.5, 4.5, 11.5, 3.5, 7, 1.5, 4.5, and 3 in the 8 starts leading up to him being unceremoniously dumped. Hardly what you want from one of your main forwards, and not an uncommon occurrence. The attacker put up a similarly poor run earlier last season, earning just 17.5 points across 6 starts from August 21 to November 21.
Heading into this season, Richarlison has completed a transfer to Tottenham, joining Antonio Conte’s project to close the gap on Manchester City and Liverpool. While the move is an indication of the 25-year-old’s development into a quality attacking player, it doesn’t bode particularly well for his fantasy output. In his five Premier League seasons since coming up with Watford for the 2017/18 season, the striker has always been a regular starter for his club. His 28 starts last season are the fewest he’s managed in any EPL season in which he’s played a part and, unless there’s a significant injury to Harry Kane or Heung-Min Son, it’s very difficult to see a pathway for him to hit even that mark in 22/23.
There have been some ruminations about Richarlison earning the starting role at right wing over Dejan Kulusevski, but it would take a brave manager indeed to bank on that following the instant positive impact the Swede made upon his arrival in January. I’m not ruling that out as an eventual possibility, but it makes a whole lot more sense for the Brazilian to be used as a sub and/or rotation piece to keep main men Kane and Son as fresh as possible to compete in the EPL and Champions League. He’s certainly worth drafting in the hopes that he can replicate his blistering end-of-season form and wrench a starting role away from Kulusevski early enough to make it to 25+ starts. But round 5 feels far too early to me to take that big of a gamble.
Ruben Neves | Wolves | ADP 102 | RobbieP
Neves is a player I lambasted in my 'Expert' Mock Draft Analysis, for being taken at pick 74, which I thought was way too early. Even at his current ADP of 102, this is very much still the case and I would warn managers against wasting a valuable 8th or 9th round draft pick on him!
Last season, Neves managed 7.9 PPS (31 starts) under new manager Bruno Lage, which ranked him 155th among players with 6+ starts. However, a low-ish PPS with a high number of starts was enough to rank him 93rd overall for total FPts. So is he your next set and forget midfielder/safe bench player you can plug in? Well, lets look at his distribution of scores (again for 6+ starts). He was ranked 74th for his floor (2.9) and just 221st for ceiling (12.6). This illustrates the quandary you have with a player like Neves. If you draft him in the 7th-9th round, you're only drafting him for the value of his floor alone.
So, to me he doesn't really make sense as a set and forget player. His PPS is too low and he offers little upside short of the odd goal (averaging just 4G + 2A the last 4 seasons). You'll likely have to start him every game to catch these returns, which make his PPS look merely passable. These goals are often incredible long range efforts, too, so you just can't predict when they will occur. The one caveat I'll make is that he did have a nice little spell between GW23 & 29 with 11.9PPS. So you may potentially be able to catch him on a hot streak but I really wouldn't bank on it. The 5.9PPS he put up outside of that spell is the bit I'd be worried about! I would hope that managers would be able to back themselves to find a better player off the waiver wire each gameweek who will surely have much higher upside than holding onto Neves all season. There are some serious talents around his ADP, such as Eberechi Eze and Stuart Armstrong, who have so much more upside, which is what you should be chasing at this point in the draft!
Not a set and forget and barely a streamer, I wouldn't recommend drafting Neves other than as a late round punt on him starting the season on fire. Within a gameweek or two after the draft, you will want to start getting getting rid of your low value squad players to jump on new emerging talents and Neves will surely be one of the first casualties.
Ivan Perisic | Tottenham | ADP 61 | Joe Williams
When the official salary cap FPL game launched in early July, fantasy managers were intrigued to see new signing Ivan Perisic classed as a defender with a price tag of only £5.5m. This interest led many in that community to do some digging into his stats to see if this might be too good to be true. This is what they found.
So, we have the introduction of a player who has historically been rotated heavily (by the exact same coach) coming into Spurs' most-rotated position. Perisic is now 2 years older and Tottenham have Champions League matches to keep in mind. Conte (as well as every other manager) has now been afforded 5 subs to boot. While many make the argument that managers likely won't use all of their allotted subs in most matches, would it surprise you at all if Conte was the exception? During "Project Restart," when most leagues were allowed 5 subs, Conte used all of his available subs in 10 out of the 13 total games. By comparison, Mikel Arteta used all 5 subs in 5/10 matches and Pep did so in 4/10.
Wing back is also one of the most physically demanding positions in Conte's formation, requiring ridiculous levels of fitness and skill. And his expectations for those filling that role are sky-high. Take, for example, his well-documented frustrations with Reguilon and Royal last season. The former appears to be on his way out the door, but that move hasn't happened at the time of writing. Anyone who rostered these players last season (especially Reguilon) will have traumatic memories of them being subbed off before 60' or even at halftime.
Now let's address the elephant in the room. Perisic has come into the Fantrax game as a midfielder. Though we here at The Draft Society have a relationship with Fantrax, we have no control over how players are classified when they first enter the system. So unfortunately, if you keep the default settings, Perisic will not even be awarded those juicy defender clean sheet points. Your league could manually change this if you like, but honestly... it wouldn't change my opinion on him. Defender or not, the 5th round is far too early for a 33-year-old wingback who is likely to face rotation, has missed 17 games due to injury over the last 3 seasons, is currently injured, and will also be taking part in the World Cup this season. I would much rather use my draft capital in the 5th round on someone like Gordon, Cash, or Cucurella.
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