Drafting for Early Fixtures 22/23

Tottiandor
Jul 29, 2022
5 min read

There are countless strategies to consider when going into Draft Day and looking at fixtures is always at the back of your mind when trying to evaluate players. This strategy, however, takes looking at fixtures to the extreme. One part trade advice, one part draft advice, and a generous helping of our Fixture Difficulty Tracker.

Michael Gary Scott: "The early worm gets the worm!"

Check out our 22/23 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!!!

Fixture Difficulty Tracker

Hands down, this is one of the greatest tools on our site, made by our stats analyst @Drafterthoughts. The tracker has been revamped for the 22/23 season to include not just positional fixture difficulty ratings, but customizable periods as well, so you can set 2 toggles: one for positions and the second one for number of fixtures. Say you are looking for a forward with favourable matchups in the first 3 games. Boom! Set the toggles and you have your list of teams to look at. It is as great as it is easy to use. Please take your time and play around with it, then come back and read the rest of the article.

The tracker is for our subscribers, if you are looking to gain access to this incredible tool - look to purchase our Ultimate Pass here.

Early Fixtures are Key

Ok, so this is a no-brainer and pretty obvious to everyone who plays some form of fantasy football: when valuing a player for a certain period of time, you have to look at the fixtures they are facing in that period. In this article, I am proposing a tactic that takes this to the extreme! Over valuing early fixtures on draft day and in early waiver wire claims, free agent claims, and trade moves is a risky tactic, but one that will result in success in leagues that have trade happy managers. It goes without saying that you, as a manager, have to have a knack for trading, as this strategy relies on getting early value on your picks and ruthlessly trading them out on a high.

For this article, I will be looking at the first 5 fixtures, as after those, player valuations will start to set in, and making trades will be much easier, especially for players that had great starts to the season. If the player has really excelled in the first few games, look to trade them out as early as after gameweek 3.

Building Your Roster to Trade Them Away

General Rules

Draft players who have easy early fixtures.
Do not draft players with difficult early fixtures - especially in the late rounds.
Draft players whose positions on the team are fairly nailed on. You cannot afford to wait for a long time for their value to materialize.
Do not draft or get players you will have trouble letting go of for personal reasons

Forwards

Gabriel Jesus (cry, LEI, bou, FUL) - Jesus has been on fire in pre-season and it has resulted in his ADP shooting up to end-of-first-round levels. You, similarly to myself, might be sceptical about his season long value, but his early-season value, seems pretty convincing. Trade target: Haaland.

Pedro Neto (lee, FUL, tot, NEW) - Finally back healthy after a horrible last season, Neto should provide great value in a draft for the entire season based on where he is being picked (ADP: 63.3) However, if you are looking for value early, he can definitely be your guy. One promoted team and two who were both flirting with it at some point in the season last season seems an easy enough first 4. Trade him out in the first IB for Jota, hopefully back from injury or Ronaldo, if he ends up staying and getting the first team job.

Ivan Toney (lei, MUN, ful, EVE) - Toney has the easiest first 4 fixtures for a FWD according to our tracker, with all of the teams faced giving up more than 10 points on average to opponent forwards. Although the impact of Eriksen's presence on toney's numbers was noticable in the second half of last season, even before his arrival, he was putting up great numbers. Do not fret too much about him. Read Gavin's take on BRF best players. Trade target: Nunez.

Midfielders

Thiago (ful, CRY, mun, BOU) - Thiago is healthy to start the season, which means we can expect him to start for Liverpool in August. We can also, to a reasonable amount of certainty expect him to get injured. According to our FDT, he faces two of the teams giving up most points against mids, which bodes well for him to get an attacking return besides his ghost point floor. Trade target: Bruno Guimaraes, Jack Harrison. Both players' teams rank in the lowest category for points against based on the FDT.

Martin Odegaard (cry, LEI, bou, FUL) - Similarly to Jesus, the tasty schedule, coupled with him being nailed on means that he should be a candidate for the August Drafties. Once he settles into a rhythm of 10 pointers, you could look to get in one of the Man City mids, who has maybe been given less minutes in the early fixtures. Trade target: Grealish/Silva

Stuart Armstrong (tot, LEI, lee, MUN) - A left field pick if ever I have seen one, I have long been an admirer of Armstrong's talents. It looks like it is only me, though. The Southampton Best Players article outlines, why I like him and have him ranked much higher, however, early fixture ease is a very enticing proposition to pick a player. Trade target: Michael Olise (Palace have the worst run for midfielders in the league for the first 4 fixtures, if Armstrong and Olise's trajectories represent the differences in fixtures early, you might have a chance at getting Olise.

Defenders

Tierney/Tomiyasu (cry, LEI, bou, FUL) - Both players have been out injured and have seen their ADP fall in recent days/weeks. However, it looks like they are back in training, and the drafting masses have not caught up with the news yet. Low ADP and great early fixtures go together like PB and J, so you can definitely look for some great value in return once you start offering them out. Trade Target: Trippier (drafted too early and has very difficult fixtures in the first 4 games. you might find a disillusioned manager if you go knocking with your shiny Gunner)

Matty Cash (bou, EVE, cry WHU) - Cash is the lesser fancied of the two Villa full-backs, and rightly so, as he has proven to be very streaky. Streaking is the name of the game in the early fixtures and if you draft him, Cash might get on a hot streak himself. Trade target: Chilwell

John Stones (whu, BOU, new, CRY) - The lowest ranked of the City CBs, there are no guarantees that he will in fact be a starter, but it seems that he is going late enough to punt on. If he starts, he will face 4 very low-ranked opponents. Trade target: A United defender (Maguire)