EPL Draft Mock Draft Analysis - July 31, 2024

Recently, TDS organized the Final EPL Draft mock draft of the 24/25 EPL Draft season through Fantrax. We got a handful of veterans from the Draft Community together to give it a go. This article will analyze briefly the results of that mock draft. Mock drafts, to any uninitiated, are a fantastic way to gauge changes in player valuation from last season, as well as to begin to tweak your draft strategy. This will be one of many mock drafts hosted by TDS. Future mocks will be open to any who are members of The Inner Circle or have purchased our 24/25 Draft Kit . Check out our Pricing Plans to get in on the action!

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EPL Draft Mock Draft Analysis

Let's jump into the results of this mock draft! As a reminder, Fantrax default scoring has slightly changed this season. The main amendment is that now defenders no longer get double punished for the first goal against. They lose the clean sheet, but only get penalized -2 for the second and further goals against. Finally, this was a 12 team serpentine mock draft, which means that the last pick of the first round gets the first pick of the second round. The draft proceeds in that way for 16 rounds.

Round 1

Every mock seems to be consistent with Saka and Bruno in those top 2 slots. Expect to see that in your real drafts this summer, with Haaland also popping up at number 1 n some other drafts. The rest of the round will contain the best available midfielders and forwards, with managers simply taking the best available asset (in their opinion) that falls to them, which is exactly how round 1 should go.

Round 1 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Foden - He was last year's player of the season, and trusted by Pep. Expect more of the same this year, which could see him finish in the top 3 overall. At pick 7, the upside is great.

Safest Pick: 

Bruno - He's been Mr. Consistent over the last couple of seasons, missing almost no time. He will also command the majority of set pieces for United. An elite fantasy asset with close to no risk.

Riskiest Pick:

Eze - While Eze will surely do well, with the transfer window open for another month there are some rumours that he is being eyed by Spurs and Arsenal. A change of teams would dent his fantasy value with reduced minutes and responsibility/set piece duty.

Too Early:

Palmer - While if you want Palmer, you need to take him early round 1, I am lower on Palmer than most, as I think Chelsea move away from hero ball this season, which cripples his value.

Round 2

The 2nd round will involve a lot of value variations here. Some people will believe in certain players and reach for them higher than others. Odds are if you a like a player that has top 30 potential, you will need to get him here, otherwise they likely won't make it back to you in the third. We see a balance of positions taken here, including our first 2 defenders off the board.

Round 2 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Alexander-Arnold - With the new scoring for DEFs, Trent would have scored almost 14 PPS last season. He's a borderline first rounder; with the 14th overall pick you could have yourself a steal.

Safest Pick: 

Kai Havertz - Kai is still putting in goals in pre-season and looks like he will continue where he left off. In terms of forwards, he may be the safest "top 20" player pick here. The main CF on a title contending team is a great 2nd rounder. Solanke is a close 2nd.

Riskiest Pick:

James Maddison - I'm a bigger fan of Maddison than almost anyone, but I have my worries about him. He never fully recovered from the injury, and he looks to be continuing his poor form in preseason. He's a wildcard this draft: he could either deliver first round value or fourth round value.

Too Early:

Rodri - I am not a fan of Rodri this year. A defensive midfielder - no matter who they are - in the 2nd round is always too early. There are better picks with more upside in this round.

Round 3

Round 3 again offered positional versatility. Managers were trying to find the right balance in their top 3 assets, with some opting to get the last DEF1s around while others looked to stack up the attack. Some risks are starting to be taken in this round, with some players with minutes and/or injury risks being taken off the board.

Round 3 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Toney - Toney will be hungry to get back to playing a full season after spending half of last season on the sidelines through suspension. Whether or not he stays at Brentford will be irrelevant to him being a FWD1. Expect him to be in or around the top 20.

Safest Pick: 

Tarkowski - The picture of safety in a draft pick, Tarks finished as the top defender last season and will deliver consistent ghost points for your team whether Everton win or lose. Also, the new scoring change only benefits him this season.

Riskiest Pick:

Trippier - We have no idea what Trippier is planning for his future, but I am in the camp that I won't risk losing my 3rd round pick to a transfer outside of the EPL. While this could be steal of the draft - if he stays, he can be on par with Trent - I am not risking it. We can call this "Harry Kane PTSD".

Too Early:

Mitoma - I would have taken every player in this round and most in the next over Mitoma. A minutes risk, and coming off a long-term injury for a team with more wingers than any team? Too risky and not enough upside for that risk. He should be taken at the end of round 4 or even round 5.

Round 4

A lot of quality is still available in this 4th round, with managers still going for upside. Some of these players have risks or lack the same upside as players in the earlier rounds, regardless managers are still looking to round out their set and forget spots.

Round 4 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Martinelli - If Martinelli secures that LW spot as many think he will, he could be a steal here. Arsenal are title contenders and even if he starts only 28 games and gets hooked around 75 minutes, he has MID1/MID2 prowess. Top 15 potential with the 37th pick.

Safest Pick: 

Van Dijk - They don't come safer than Van Dijk. Reliable to start every game when fit and offers a steady flow of points makes him a contender for top 5 defender every year. A solid choice as a DEF1 or 2 in this round.

Riskiest Pick:

Alvarez - Alvarez has already expressed his concern for minutes, and Pep didn't seem happy. Could he be on his way out? Or at least set for a similar role to the end of last season, by providing value off the bench? He failed to start the final 3 EPL games for City last season when they were in the thick of the title battle. Tough one to predict and one with risk.

Too Early:

Ward-Prowse - West Ham attack is already a worry for me, add in a player who struggled to stay in the XI last season as West Ham add more attackers? Maybe worth a risk in the 6th, but not now.

Round 5

We can start to see a drop-off in this round, with managers gambling on players returning to name value, or hoping some pick up from their "breakout season". Needless to say some of these picks could turn out to be flops or superstars with no in between.

Round 5 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Muniz - A clear path to minutes, and averaged over 11 PPS last year. As a FWD2/3 in the 5th round, this is a great pick.

Safest Pick: 

Munoz - Munoz can ghost (9+ GPPS). The defensive scoring change only benefits him as well. A clear path to minutes and Palace still have Glasner, which makes him the safest pick of this bunch but definitely not a boring one given his upside!

Riskiest Pick:

Rashford - A horrendous year for United's golden boy. Can he win back a starting spot and stay fit? United are deep in attack this year so he will need to hit the ground running or face another season of being rotated.

Too Early:

KDH - He could be great under his former manager at a bigger club. You probably could have gotten him 1-2 rounds later though. A bit of a reach here.

Round 6

Oh man, we have some real upside plays in this round, which I am all about. Lots of these players have shown potential of breaking through - can this be their year? It is worth noting this draft happened before we found out Hojlund will be out for 6+ weeks, so we will gloss over that pick.

Round 6 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Tavernier - I am a Tav fan, and think he can be a set and forget MID3 as long as he stays fit. He gets sets as well for a team that love to attack. What is not to like? Small caveat is his injury woes, but in round 6 he is more than worth that pick.

Safest Pick: 

Iwobi - They don't come safer than a nearly 9 PPS midfielder who will start 30+ games. Iwobi may not have the same upside as the others but he is a nice set and forget pick, especially if you went riskier in the earlier rounds.

Riskiest Pick:

Grealish and James - I really couldn't pick just one. James is known for his injuries, and will miss the first 3 games of the season due to suspension, with Gusto filling in. Grealish had a poor season, and Doku seems to be ahead in the pecking order. Both have upside but both have risk.

Too Early:

March - There is every chance March is nothing more than a rotational cover piece. He is not worth punting on, especially in round 6 with some good assets still around. He should be going in the double digit rounds given his injury history and the plethora of options at Brighton.

Round 7

The dart throws have started. We see our first promoted assets off the board as well as a lot of new transfers.

There are still upside defenders available here as well!

Round 7 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Dalot - Dalot will offer a solid 8-10 PPS output this season. He has attacking upside, loves to get forward, and could start 38 games. He is a great pick here. If United improve even a little, he could be a DEF1.

Safest Pick: 

Wharton - What can be safer than a starting CM in a midtable team? Wharton seriously lacks upside but as a MID4 he will do his job as a set and forget asset.

Riskiest Pick:

Trossard - Trossard finished last season very strong. But with the full Arsenal attack fit and firing does he get into the XI, especially early in the season? He could be on the waiver wire by gameweek 5.

Too Early:

Leicester Forwards (Mavididi and Fatawu) - While these two players will be exciting to watch, they could frustrate managers. The wingers are on a promoted team and haven't played a minute in the EPL. You were better off waiting a round or two, or passing on them altogether.

Round 8

Now we start to see some managers going for glory, and some taking a safer route. There are some great players still available in round 8 - especially attacking wise. Again, there is no guarantee with anyone here - hence the late picks.

Round 8 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Maguire - Now this is only because of the news that Yoro will be out for three months! Maguire is a borderline DEF1 when on the field, and with the new scoring change, he should improve on his 10 PPS from last year. I expect he will be going much earlier in drafts starting next week.

Safest Pick: 

Andersen - A safe CB pick, who is a guaranteed Palace starter. Last season he offered a solid 7.5 PPS, which should improve with the scoring change to 8+. Christie was a candidate here, but Scott's presence is a worry this year.

Riskiest Pick:

Enciso - He only started 5 games last year due to injury, and faces a ton of competition. He has upside but is a risky play here.

Too Early:

Shaw - Discussed on the podcast earlier, Shaw is a very injury prone player who is unlucky to have his career blighted by knocks. This leg break may prevent him from ever staying healthy for a long period of tme. Unless your only goal is to hope he scores 20+ in GW1 & then trade him out, he's about 1-2 rounds too early.

Round 9

Round 9 Call-Outs

Not much to say about this round. In my opinion, it's a complete mess with a ton of questionable picks.

Best Value: 

Hall - Hall is cooking right now, and should start the season at LB. He has attacking upside and Newcastle are a top 4 contender. To find DEF1 potential in the 9th round is rare. This could be his year.

Safest Pick: 

None - There is no safe pick here. Everyone has their risks, whether it be minutes, transfer concerns, or injuries.

Riskiest Pick:

Savio - We know some assets struggle to see serious EPL minutes in their first year under Pep. If Savio can replicate what Doku did last year, he is a steal here. If not, well, he will be a Free Agent in a few weeks and a waste of a 9th round pick.

Too Early:

Bradley - I still don't get the Bradley love. Even if he starts GW1, Trent is the guy at RB for Slot. Bradley is an elite streamer, and those are usually drafted in rounds 12 and beyond.

Round 10

Round 10 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Ndiaye - This is a tough call here with none of these players presenting real value - the sign of a good draft! Ndiaye has a lot of upside and should be a starter on Everton. As a FWD3 or even a FWD4, this is a very good pick for a team that desperately needs more creators.

Safest Pick: 

McGinn - Well, McGinn will start every game. That's about the only reason he is in this slot. Mainoo is in the same boat, but McGinn has scored better in previous years.

Riskiest Pick:

Madueke - We just don't know with this guy anymore. On his day he's one of the best RWs out there, but more often than not...it's not his day. Let's see what Maresca can do with him - or if he gets a transfer to another midtable club where he can get more minutes. A solid punt in round 10.

Too Early:

Mainoo - At 6.9 PPS, and in the same role as last year, there are a lot of better assets to take in round 10. You probably could have picked up Mainoo in rounds 11-13, but he will more likely than not be dropped onto the waiver wire throughout the season by fantasy managers.

Round 11

Round 11 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Zirkzee - Please keep in mind this was BEFORE Hojlund's injury news. I expect Zirkzee to go much earlier in drafts starting this weekend or later, but it is worth a highlight here. My best guess is to aim for him in the 7th.

Safest Pick: 

Romero - A solid DEF3 with DEF2 upside, as long as he isn't suspended, he starts and is a threat from set pieces. He posted a respectable 9 PPS last year before the scoring change - good value here.

Riskiest Pick:

Sinisterra - Has a lot of work to do to win a spot in the XI as Tav and Semenyo are clearly ahead right now. Good chance he is on the wire if he doesn't crack the starting lineup early on.

Too Early:

Igor Thiago - With the news dropping that he will likely miss a few months, he should not be drafted at all. He could be back in December, and is probably just worth picking up in November.

Round 12

Round 12 Call-Outs

Best Value: 

Richards - There were two candidates here, but Richards is a top pick given his 11+ PPS finish to the season (under the new scoring). He should continue to do well under Glasner.

Safest Pick: 

Senesi - You can do a lot worse with your DEF3/4 than a starting Bournemouth CB who managed 8.8 PPS last year. He is a safe bet for starts and consistent points.

Riskiest Pick:

Timber - With Calafiori signing, does he even have a spot in the XI? We don't know how he will score in Fantrax either; he will most likely be dropped to waivers after a few gameweeks.

Too Early:

Bobb - You can probably get Bobb in rounds 14-16. He is a hail mary right now, and nothing more than an elite streamer who may start less than 7 games.

Rounds 13-16

Rounds 13-16

Best Value: 

Cook (13-7) - As Steady Eddie as they come.

Scott (13-10) - Will eventually replace Christie.

Onana (15-2) - Will be a gem in the new scoring.

Adama (16-6) - The biggest upside punt around, and taken in the last round.

Daka (16-10) - Starting CF for Leicester but can he make his mark?

Players I'm Not Interested In: These guys are basically just weekly streamers. You can find comparable players on the waiver wire. Spend your draft capital on players who offer more of a reward.

McTominay (14-1)

Zinchenko (14-12)

Harry Wilson (15-1)

Guehi (15-3)

Emerson (15-4)

Partey (15-8)

C. Wilson (16-4)

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