Our Gameweek 28 Hot or Cold article is here to outline the current prospects of key Fantasy EPL players. Our 'Hot' or 'Cold' status will help take away your emotional attachment to certain Draft Premier League players and help you bring in the players that you need to help you dominate your Fantrax Draft League!
These Hot or Cold ratings are based on the data contained within the Weekly Rest-of-Season Rankings produced by Robbie P. The Draft Society's exclusive weekly refresh of Fantasy EPL prospect rankings!
Gameweek 28 Hot List
These are Fantasy EPL players that have risen in our Weekly ROS Rankings! Keep an eye on these Draft Premier League players, either look to sell high or bring them into your Fantrax squad if you can.
Dwight McNeil
Position:Â Midfielder
Team:Â Everton
GW27 Rank: 38
GW28 Rank: 26
What's Changed?:Â The Dyche effect is in full force and McNeil has been a huge beneficiary. In past seasons we've known McNeil to rely on his ghost point production for the vast majority of his points, averaging a very healthy 8.2 gPPS over the previous 3 seasons. However, in the 7 games since Dyche has arrived, he's upped the ante even further with 10.7 gPPS, and has even added a goal and 2 assists (1 for a PKD) to give him 14.0 PPS. The main strengths we remember from McNeil at Burnley was his volume of dribbles and crosses galore and it certainly looks like that's returned with Dyche at Everton. McNeil has 2.3 CoS per start (2.4 in 21/22), 1.2 ACNC's per start (0.9 in 21/22), and 2 KP's per start (1.3 in 21/22). He is just peppering in crosses, averaging 10 per game and he's boosted by taking lefty inswinging corner kicks (1.9 per game) to help that ghost point floor. Now is this sustainable? Well, firstly, I think he's proven to any doubters that he's definitely nailed in the XI, and when you have a floor like McNeil does, you're always going to have value. It's not exactly like Everton have had an easy run of games either, playing Arsenal twice and away at Liverpool. He has proven thus far that he is truly the definition of set and forget!
Recommendation: McNeil is in a weird position where you're not likely to get full value if you tried to trade him away due to his poor early season form. So I would happily just ride him out until the end of the season. In terms of bringing him in, I would look to use the big 27 point performance from Son Heung-Min in GW27 to attempt to convince the manager who rosters McNeil.
Ollie Watkins
Position:Â Forward
Team:Â Aston Villa
GW27 Rank: 31
GW28 Rank: 23
What's Changed?:Â Watkins has been steadily rising in my ranks since the Premier League resumed after the World Cup break. While not perfect, Unai Emery has certainly got this team functioning again and Watkins has finally found the goal scoring form that was missing earlier in the season. In the 11 games since the WC, he's registered 7 goals and 2 assists on the way to 12.6 PPS, and what's more encouraging is him bagging goals against Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool! These 7 goals have from 5.4 xG, a bit of overperformance, so maybe don't expect him to continue in quite such a rich a vein of form going forward, but generating 0.55 xG/90 is still a very healthy number where we can 'expect' a goal every other game. The only thing to note with Watkins is he's not too hot on the ghost points (5.8 gPPS) so he will be prone to a few low scores every now and then, but he has a ton of upside with the number of chances he's getting.
Recommendation: Villa have a great run of fixtures coming up, they don't blank in GW28 and double in GW29, which will make him expensive. Managers who roster him will likely not give him up for cheap. However, if you roster him and your team is looking rosy for those gameweeks, you could look to capitalise and aim for a player who blanks in GW28, potentially a Trent Alexander-Arnold. You could also plan even more long term, especially if you have playoffs, and try for Gabriel Jesus.
Ben Chilwell
Position:Â Defender
Team:Â Chelsea
GW27 Rank: 46
GW28 Rank: 36
What's Changed?:Â Well, it's taken over half a season, but Ben Chilwell is finally fit! Fair play to all of those who stayed patient and managed to hold since the draft. Your time has come! Including two Champions League matches against Borussia Dortmund, Chilwell has now started the last 6 games on the trot and his return has given Potter the tools he needs to switch formation to a back 5, utilising wing backs, which we know to be Chilwell's most productive position. He has certainly gotten forward a lot, as we have come to expect from him, regularly popping up in the box and putting in a ton of crosses, with a goal and an assist to show for it in the last two games. He has also been commanding set pieces (albeit in Mount and James's absence), which can contribute to a nice floor.
Recommendation: In terms of trading out, I don't think this is the right time to deal him unless you can get one of the Liverpool full backs, or Luke Shaw in return, which seems unlikely given Chilwell's injury record. However, the fact that Chelsea don't blank in GW28 and double in GW29 is a huge bonus, so if you're happy taking the risk on any re-injury and want to get him in, I would look to offer someone like Fabian Schar, who may look more attractive based on his total FPts but has tailed off a bit recently (Newcastle also has a favourable schedule).
For the full list of Gameweek 28 risers, check out our Weekly ROS Rankings page!
Gameweek 28 Cold List
These are Fantasy EPL players that have fallen in our Weekly ROS Rankings. This may be due to poor form, they have been dropped from the best 11, they have suffered an injury, or received a suspension. It's time to consider trading out, trading in on a low, or dropping these Draft Premier League players from your rosters!
Bruno Guimaraes
Position:Â Midfielder
Team:Â Newcastle United
GW27 Rank: 56
GW28 Rank: 83
What's Changed?:Â Pre-season I was sceptical that Bruno could match his amazing form from late in the 21/22 season with 12.4 PPS (8.1 gPPS). I even went so far in my pre-season Bold prediction stating that he would not make the top 100 in total FPts this season (he currently ranks 108th although missing 6 games through injury has contributed). The main reasons for this was a big overperformance of xG+xA in that spell and the risk that he would be deployed in a deeper role, similar to how he was used at Lyon. However, before the World Cup he had a great spell from GW8-16, where he put up 10.7 PPS (6.0 gPPS) with 3 goals and an assist, with Sean Longstaff playing the more defensive role, which allowed Bruno to get forward more (albeit less than in 21/22). This definitely papered over the cracks, though, as those 4 attacking returns were achieved from just 1.6 xG+xA. Even so, I thought that my bold prediction was perhaps too bold. But the Bruno that returned from the World Cup just has hasn't cracked on. Another injury putting him out for 3 games hasn't helped, but his numbers have been abysmal. In 7 starts, he's managed just 5.2 PPS (4.6 gPPS) with 1 assist (from 0.9 xG+xA). So the ghosts are down a tad but it's the attacking returns that have dried up now that he isn't vastly overperforming his expected goals and assists.
Recommendation: If you roster Bruno, I imagine most will look at the recent numbers and run the other way. At this point his value can't get any lower, and unless you're very lucky or have been planning your squad very well, you'll likely need him in the blank GW28 and double GW29. I would look to hold him until GW30 and hope some returns come his way, then look to ship out if possible.
Ivan Perisic
Position:Â Midfielder
Team:Â Tottenham
GW27 Rank: 81
GW28 Rank: 105
What's Changed?: Perisic started off the season pretty well and while he only started 66% of games, the points you were getting were worth it, with10.1 PPS (8.8 gPPS) before the World Cup. However, lacklustre recent performances have seen Perisic lose his spot to Ben Davies at left wing back. The Croatian has started just 1 of the last 4 Premier League games. This has seen him constantly dropped and picked back up from the waiver wire in the leagues I'm in. At first I thought it was a bit reactionary to drop him, but in terms of Fantrax points even when he has started since the World Cup, he's only seen double digits once. In 8 starts (from 12), he's scored just 7.2 PPS (6.3 gPPS), not what you want from a player who isn't even guaranteed to start.
Recommendation:Â It's a difficult situation with Perisic. The downturn could be due to World Cup fatigue, given Croatia's deep run in the tournament, but you just don't know when/if that will turn around. If you're still holding, given the blank GW28, I would wait until line-ups to see if he starts. If he doesn't, drop him for someone who is!
Joao Felix
Position:Â Forward
Team:Â Chelsea
GW27 Rank: 24
GW28 Rank: 37
What's Changed?:Â Felix hasn't been in the league for that long, especially when you factor in him missing a couple of games after a red card on his debut against Fulham. So it may seem a bit harsh to include him in the cold section. However, after the promise of his first 3 starts, with a lovely goal against West Ham and some nice looking ghost potential at 10 gPPS, managers will have been wondering where all the points have gone in the last three gameweeks. Scores of 1, 3.5 and 1 and being subbed off progressively earlier, in the 82nd, 67th and 45th minutes is not a good sign. Chelsea have had the Champions League to contend with, the game against Dortmund sandwiched between the matches against Leeds and Leicester, so we could just have seen his minutes being managed, although I wouldn't put anything past Potter. On the surface it doesn't seem great but in those recent 3 matches he's generated 0.8 xG, which given the reduced minutes accounts for 0.4 xG/90 - now those are good numbers. In fact, if you check our Useful Draft Metrics page, you will see that his expected points is 11.7 xPP90; so if he had taken his chances (and not received the red card in the first game), then things would be looking a lot rosier. Going forward all he needs is the minutes and surely the points will follow.
Recommendation: With Felix the risk currently appears to be minutes. But he is still starting every game he is available. This isn't a time to trade out, especially on relatively low value, and when considering the Chelsea schedule in the next two as discussed above. One attacking return will change everything in terms of his perceived value. I wouldn't necessarily rush to bring him in on a low, but if you're desperate for players in GW28, maybe giving up the likes of Gundogan (City blank In GW28 and don't double in GW29) could be a nice move.
For the full list of Gameweek 28 fallers, check out our Weekly ROS Rankings page!
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