Four Players Not to Sleep On for 22/23

“You don’t have a crystal ball, you can’t look at a kid and predict his future any more than I can. I’ve sat at those tables with you and listened to you tell those parents, ‘When I know, I know! And when it comes to your son, I know’. And you don’t. You don’t."

(Billy Beane in Moneyball)

That scene always makes me think of draft day in Fantrax. Maybe I need to get out more.

What Billy Beane is saying is true though – we generally aren’t great at predicting who’s going to do what, even when it’s just for the season ahead. In my experience, success in draft fantasy is inherently tied to the initial draft. You can be exceptional at waivering in players, you can be the Harry Redknapp of trading. But if you’ve put yourself behind the 8-ball with your draft, it’s almost impossible to catch up. As this is my last article for The Draft Society, I thought I would put the 21/22 season in the rear-view mirror and focus instead on that all-important day in August. Here are four players that you shouldn’t sleep on during your 22/23 draft.

Ben Chilwell

Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell may not have played since November 23rd, but don’t let this be a case of “out of sight, out of mind”. He’s pretty damn good. The rest of your league aren’t exactly going to sleep on him, but I think 99% of people will forget just how high his ceiling is. In many leagues last season, he was a Round 4-Round 5 pick. Chilwell played 540 minutes in the league before suffering an ACL injury in a Champions League match versus Juventus that has kept him out for the remainder of the season. In those 540 minutes, though, he was lights out. He scored 110 points at 18.3 FP/G. For context, teammate Timo Werner has played 1,273 minutes and scored 104.5 points. Now, I’m not saying that the left back would have maintained these numbers. After all, those six games were against five teams in the bottom half of the table plus Leicester City – hardly a scheduling gauntlet. Nor am I saying he’s in the Trent Alexander-Arnold (16.3 FP/G) and Joao Cancelo (14.2 FP/G) bracket either…which, if you’re asking, is the first round of the draft without a doubt. But next up? Above the likes of Andrew Robertson, Reece James, and Virgil van Dijk? Yes indeed, I’d have absolutely taken that bet.

Prior to this season, Chilwell has been absurdly consistent, with FP/G’s of 10.4 and 10.5 in his final two seasons at Leicester, and then 10.9 in his debut season at Chelsea. These numbers would rank around 11th this season amongst defenders, just between Sergio Reguilon and Virgil van Dijk. But there’s good reason to believe that he could be closer to that 18.3 of this season when he returns. For one thing, he appeared to have been promoted to one of Chelsea’s primary set-piece takers when on the pitch. In 2020-21, he took 30 corners in his 2,286 minute season, whilst this season he had already taken 19. He was also getting far further up the pitch, averaging 4.7 touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 compared to 3.0 the season before.

Marcos Alonso will turn 32 during the 2022/23 season and will certainly have ‘backup’ status to Chilwell (despite his always-elite fantasy numbers), so there should be no concerns over playing time…apart from possible re-injury, of course. And that's if Alonso is even in West London after this transfer window, after being linked to Barcelona. Another LWB would likely come in but just for cover. Not drafting a player on the off-chance of injury is not a wise strategy – particularly when said injury is the first occurrence of it, as is the case with Chilwell. Only when a player has had multiple absences from the same injury should a red flag appear (e.g., Jack Wilshere’s ankles and Andy Carroll’s groin). Whether he is the same player as before is also an important question, but generally speaking, returns to form are more successful when that return comes during the off-season as opposed to the in-season*. If, as expected, he plays a full pre-season with no recurrences of the injury - he is already pictured in light training - then that ADP of 44 from a season ago should easily be in the 20’s for me. Pure value. Let absence make the heart grow fonder.

*I have preliminary data to support this, what I haven’t had time to expound upon, so you’ll have to trust me on this one. But anecdotally, you can take a look at the returns of van Dijk (summer 2021), Chilwell himself (summer 2018), Mane (summer 2017), and Sterling (summer 2013) as examples of players who didn’t miss a beat on their comeback. Compare that to the disappointing mid-season returns of Neto, Eze, Lamptey, Calvert-Lewin, Rashford, and Pereira, just from the last two seasons alone, and hopefully you see a pattern is emerging.

Highest Points per 90, 2021/22.. Default Fantrax Scoring Source: The Draft Society

Patson Daka

Leicester signed the then-22-year-old last summer for £27m with 2021-22 meant as a bedding in season for the Zambian. Unfortunately, Jamie Vardy’s injuries have forced Brendan Rodgers to find an alternative. And perhaps surprisingly, he’s turned to the less-experienced Daka (1,159 league minutes) just as often as he’s turned to the more established Iheanacho (1,202). With Vardy turning 36 next year, it is likely that these minutes will go up and he will have a season of familiarisation with the Premier League and Rodgers system under his belt.

The goals haven’t exactly flowed for the forward – save for that four-goal onslaught against Spartak Moscow back in October – but he’s done okay. He’s bagged five in the league in total, including against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur. More impressive, though, are the expected numbers. He ranks 22nd in the league for non-penalty expected goals and assists per 90 at 0.50 – ahead of a who’s who of big names, including teammates James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, as well as Bruno Fernandes, Raphinha, Bukayo Saka, Philippe Coutinho, and Dejan Kulusevski.

His numbers on the fantasy front – like the 5.72 FP/G – are very underwhelming, but that is largely due to the sizeable amount of substitute appearances he’s made (10 so far). His PP90 is not bad, but again, it won’t make headlines for fantasy managers doing their draft preparation (at 9.5, it’s just a touch lower than the likes of Dwight McNeil and Leandro Trossard). But all of that is a good thing – it will mean people sleep on him. This projection is based not on what he’s done in the past – as was the case for Chilwell – but, rather, what he will do in the future.

Leicester have had a disappointing season, but you’d probably expect them to improve next time around, even if those 7th – 10th positions are starting to get overcrowded with the likes of West Ham, Wolves, Newcastle, and Aston Villa all expecting themselves to be there next season. A projection of 2,000 minutes for Daka isn’t unreasonable and even if he is not quite the like-for-like Vardy replacement that they are hoping for when they signed him last year, a beta-version still wouldn’t be too bad. Last season he had an ADP of 122, but that should be at least 50 spots higher come August (it won’t be). In fact, if you opt to draft Jamie Vardy (perhaps around the 4th round seems reasonable), then it would be very tempting to handcuff him with Daka.

Shots on Target % versus non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists. Source: FBref

Jack Grealish

With an ADP of 4.6 last season, you could make the case that nobody has underperformed this year as much as the most expensive player in Premier League history. Now, personally I would have Jadon Sancho taking that crown (his ADP was 8.9 yet his WAR is about a third of Grealish’s), but the point remains that the former Villa star has failed to deliver. But should this really be a surprise? Maybe the extent of the decline from his 17.0 PP90 season at Villa (42nd best Premier League performance since our records began seven years ago) could not have been predicted. But we should definitely have seen a fairly substantial drop-off coming.

New signings for Manchester City have a habit of taking a season to settle. Riyad Mahrez’s debut season had an FP/G of 8.5. His second yielded13.9. Meanwhile, Bernardo Silva went from a 6.6 to a 11.7. Joao Cancelo from 8.8 to 12.8. Raheem Sterling from 8.8 to 11.9. Leroy Sane from 9.6 to 13.5. The now-Bayern-owned Sane makes for a good comparison here given his left-wing position and Jack’s current 9.8 FP/G. Were Grealish to make a similar jump, then we’d be talking about one of the top 10 players in the league again. It makes sense that players everywhere often don’t produce for their new teams straight out of the gate, but it seems to be particularly true at City and under Pep Guardiola, where the system and style of play is so embedded and instrumental to their success.

Grealish’s overall numbers have been poor in 2021/22 – nobody can deny that. Three goals and three assists in the league is not good enough for someone that cost £106m. To add insult to injury, every few days on social media there will be some sort of post reminding people how Gabriel or Fred have scored more, or how Nemanja Matic and Enock Mwepu have assisted more. But have his performances been poor? As a Villa fan and a big supporter of Jack, I’ve been determined to watch him a lot in his debut season at City; keen to see him show everyone else what Villa fans already knew. He is world class. Yes, he has disappointed, but I wouldn’t say he has been poor. What he has been, is playing with the handbrake on. You can practically see the restraint on his face as he resists the urge to run at an opponent (as he would have done at Villa) and instead, make the easier pass. When the easier pass is Kevin De Bruyne rather than Marvelous Nakamba, and when the rollicking for disobeying is from Pep rather than Dean Smith, you can forgive him his decision.

Love him or loathe him (and maybe this is my biases kicking in, but I cannot understand why anyone chooses the latter…yes he goes over easy but get over it – everyone does that now. I’s the opposition’s fault for being so dumb). Grealish is a top, top player. Next year we will see that again. His touch on the ball is second to none – and that includes your De Bruyne’s, Foden’s, Thiago’s, et al. His creativity likewise. Defensively, he’s actually improved by a considerable degree (his absolute numbers are down from at Villa, but Villa obviously defended far more, so a good indicator of this is his successful pressuring percentage, which has risen from 31.6 to 39.0). Even in this “down” year, Grealish has had the 3rd highest touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 in the league, behind Mohamed Salah and Raheem Sterling). In 2022/23 will see the end product return, like it did for Mahrez, Silva, Cancelo, Sterling, and Sane in their sophomore City season. City haven’t often failed with transfers under Pep, and they spent £106m on this guy for a reason. If he falls into the 3rd round of drafts, you’ll be grabbing yourself a bargain.

Average Draft Position compared with Total Wins Above Replacement (as of post-GW30). WAR Source: Overthinkingfootball

Michael Olise

Since 2020-21, Crystal Palace have been like one of those interior design make-over shows: one minute they are old, run down, and boring, the next, they’re new, flashy, and exciting. All you need is a montage of Patrick Vieira painting some ceilings, Conor Gallagher doing some tiling, and Marc Guehi refitting some floorboards and you’ve got yourself a hit TV series. The revolution at the club has been incredible and Patrick Vieira is rightly in contention for the Manager of the Season award given that most pundits predicted Palace to be relegated under his stewardship.

On the pitch, most of the plaudits – particularly for the first five months of the season – were going to on-loan midfielder Conor Gallagher. The Chelsea man had scored 261.5 points by mid-January at 14.5 FP/G and at one point had risen to #17 in the TDS Consensus Ranks. What happens to Gallagher next season is very much up in the air, but it is far from assured that he will be returning to Selhurst Park. It will be a blow for the club, for sure, but from a fantasy perspective, it does open up a few intriguing prospects. Enter Michael Olise.

Olise arrived at Palace from Reading last summer for just £8.4m (TransferMarkt have his market value up to £13.5m already) and the English-born, French youth international has been a breath of fresh air at the club. Like Patson Daka, some of his fantasy numbers – like the 6.7 FP/G – are deceiving as Vieira has opted to integrate him slowly into the team (26 league appearances but 14 of those as a substitute), but don’t let that fool you. His PP90 is exceptional, sitting at 14.0 – superior to fellow young wingers Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Gabriel Martinelli, and Harvey Barnes. Olise passes the eye test with flying colours and is one of the most exciting young players in the league to watch with his dribbling and electric pace – factors that shouldn’t come into it when making fantasy-related decisions, but which are always welcomed!

This isn’t all based on aesthetics though – Olise also has the stats to show his promise. His progressive passes and progressive carries rank in the 88th and 95th percentile within the Big Five European leagues according to FBRef, whilst his expected assists (90th percentile) and assists (95th) show that he also has end product. At just 20 years of age, the ceiling appears to be very high for Palace’s young winger. The fact that he’s taken the second most corners for the club this season, behind only the possibly/probably-departing Conor Gallagher, bodes well for his key pass numbers and if he can develop more of a habit for shooting (he only averages 1.5 per 90 – good for the 19th percentile) then Olise could become a top fantasy asset in 2022/23. I don’t think a late 4th round pick is too high for this man.

10 most positive and 10 most negative changes between transfer fee and market value (as of 17-05-22) amongst all £8m+ signings to the Premier League in 2021/22. Source: TransferMarkt

Honourable Mentions

The four above deserved a deep dive, such is my confidence in their potential undervalued status. But they aren’t the only ones who will be overlooked as drafts take place and we edge nearer to the 2022/23 season…

Arsenal aren’t far away from properly competing again. They need to buy a quality forward, stay injury-free, and find a way to get Emile Smith Rowe in the starting 11. The 21-year-old Englishman is an unbelievable talent, but at the moment, is struggling to find minutes due to Arteta favouring Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka, and Martin Odegaard – and you can’t blame the manager to be honest. But were they to successfully find a way to accommodate that frightening front four (perhaps Odegaard dropping deeper), then fantasy managers and Arsenal fans will be able to start dreaming of bigger things. Like Olise, Smith Rowe is a joy to watch and has the bonus of currently being second/third-choice set piece taker. Unlike Olise, his creativity comes more from passing than dribbling, and his touch and awareness around the box, in theory, would play very nicely behind someone like Lille’s Jonathan David. Game time is a red flag, but it would be hard to pass on the Croydon De Bruyne is he was there late in the 5th round.

Whilst Arsenal are close to competing again, their North-London rivals Tottenham may be even closer. They have a world-class manager and two genuine superstars on their roster, and 2022/23 holds a lot of promise. One player that could form a key part of their successes is left wingback Ryan Sessegnon. The 21-year-old is currently down on Fantrax as a midfielder, which dents his value considerably, but this is something that will probably be rectified (correctly, not just to enhance his value!) next season. If so, the clean sheet potential combined with otherworldly numbers from an attacking perspective (99th percentile for xA, 96th percentile for attacking penalty area touches) should make him a legitimate 5th or 6th round option. Oh, and don’t worry about Sergio Reguilon – Conte definitely prefers Sessegnon.

As of this writing, Leeds sit just outside the relegation zone, but with Burnley’s game in hand and easier final matchup, the bookies have the Yorkshire club as favourites for the drop. Whilst I would not be too disappointed by that myself (no Sky Sports, Leeds aren’t every neutral fans second team), it would mean that we are deprived of the opportunity to have a bit more Liam Cooper next season. The centre-back is a good player, but it would be a mistake to say that his real-world value matches his fantasy value. He is one of the (fairly rare) instances in which his skillset happens to exploit the default Fantrax scoring system, most notably, his aerial ability that puts him in the 96th percentile. Having been restricted to just 20 games this season due to hamstring issues – and only five since December 5th – there’s a good chance that many managers will have forgotten what a fixture-proof beast this man is. If Leeds stay up (or he is signed by another Premier League club), he would be a steal in the 7th.

Finally, we have Aston Villa’s Emiliano Buendia. Like the man he was signed to replace, the debut season has been a tough road. With an ADP of 21.9 a year ago – above the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin, Youri Tielemans, and Joao Cancelo – big things were expected from the diminutive attacking midfielder. But it hasn’t quite worked out yet for Villa’s record signing. It’s an odd one because his numbers are okay (0.47 goal involvements per 90; essentially the same as Trent Alexander-Arnold and Bruno Fernandes) and his game seems fairly well suited to Gerrard’s intended system, but he’s fallen out of favour to the point where he’s started just one of the club’s last seven games. Philippe Coutinho’s arrival has hurt, and with Jacob Ramsey gaining experience and Leon Bailey hopefully fully fit next season, it’s a struggle to see how Buendia increases his number of starts. But these are all factors that will scare away other managers. Monitor Villa’s pre-season closely because if Buendia can earn his spot back, his ceiling is one of the highest in the league, and there’s a chance he could fall into the 4th and 5th rounds of many drafts (or later).

That's a Wrap

A good draft is probably the number one predictor for fantasy success. And because of that, it can never be too early to start preparing. The eight names above should definitely be on your radar when draft day comes around, and if you can work your way to a Chilwell (2nd round), Grealish (3rd), Olise (5th), Daka (7th) draft, then you’ll be setting yourself up nicely for fantasy glory in 2022/23.

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