Gameweek 5: Genie's Corner and Trade Advice

This article will focus on trade advice that highlights players that are either worth trading in on a low, or trading out on a high. This could involve players who could see their minutes reduced, have a purple patch come to an end, or on the flip side involve players who might be starting to heat up. This article will also feature advice and strategy tips from our very own Draft Genie, and his interesting style of playing the game.

Players To Trade-In

This section will focus on players to target in your trade offers. Usually there are two types of players to trade-in. The ones you "buy low" on, who may be in a poor patch of form, injured, or not seeing consistent minutes with all that about to change. The second is where you "buy high". While that will sound contradictory, these players could be showing no signs of slowing down and are en-route to a breakout season. You want to try and trade-in these players before they become unattainable, even if it involves offering more than what their draft-day or early-season value was.

Kevin De Bruyne (MCI - MID) - Injury Disclaimer Below

Analysis: De Bruyne has started the first 4 EPL games for City, and outside of Haaland has arguably been City's best player. His fantasy points don't tell the whole story, however, with scores of: 6, 26.5, 16.5, and 9 in his first four, respectively. Aside from a bit of a more conservative game at Chelsea, he should have at least another assist or two to his name, and came very close to a few goals, hitting the post twice. In another scenario KDB could be averaging 25 PPS right now. Now might be your best chance to trade him in, especially as UCL will be starting soon. The thought here is KDB won't be part of the UCL team in most gameweeks resting him for the EPL games at least until the much latter stages of the competition. He is always an injury risk given what happened in the past few season, but if managed correctly he could continue to have a great season. City have two tougher games against Arsenal and Newcastle before a very friendly run of: Fulham, Wolves, Southampton, and Bournemouth. I don't see a reason (barring a surprise injury or illness) that he doesn't start those four. I have KDB as number one overall in my latest rest of season rankings and am still backing that claim. That doesn't mean you can't get a trade done that allows you to keep Bruno or Saka though (assuming you roster them). With Haaland looking on pace for another record setting season, you want to bring in City's most creative player and set-piece taker.

Trade Offer Value: Saka and Haaland aside, offering any asset 1:1 for KDB is the easiest route I would take to a trade. Your only other chance to KDB is hoping his manager is having a tougher start to the season (maybe they took Nunez round 2, Nkunku round 3, something like that). From there I would offer two strong assets for him. A package such as: Diaz + Mitoma could be a great opening offer that a manger would consider. If that manager is struggling for midfield depth, then something like Maddison + Szoboszlai for KDB + a defender could be an offer they would explore. Look to grab him now and use the "Arsenal as next" as a good opening way to get him.

This segment was written before KDB's midweek injury - Wait for more news before deciding on the value of your offer. Unless he is out for more than 4 weeks he is worth a trade in. If he is close to returning for Arsenal then I would still offer a similar package detailed above. If he is out until the next International Break, then you may be able to get away with a lesser offer such as Mitoma + Tavernier.

Mohammed Kudus (WHU - MID)

Analysis: Kudus has had a slow start to the season, getting his first double digit outing this weekend vs. Fulham. This is not the Kudus managers were hoping for when they took him with a top 15ish pick. But that might be about to change. The next four games for West Ham are against teams that have shown to struggle defensively: Chelsea, Brentford, Ipswich, and Manchester United.

The hope is that Kudus can turn a corner before the next international break. Against City he was unlucky not to get himself a goal, coming inches away from his first return. Kudus is basically guaranteed 90 minutes on a team that is slowly improving each week. Once West Ham figure out their best XI and tactics, Kudus will repay the faith. This season, Kudus currently has 9 shots (0 on target), 4 key passes, but 16 successful dribbles (the most among midfielders). A slight improvement in those other attacking stats and he will already improve his ghost point. Last year he finished with 8 goals and 6 assists, and there is no reason he can't come close if not surpass those numbers this season, meaning the best is yet to come for the West Ham winger.

Many managers will be looking at Kudus as their MID1, especially if they took a forward in the first round. These managers may be struggling for results if their first round pick isn't hitting the ground running (Odegaard, Foden, Watkins, and Isak, for example). Those managers may be open to a taking a midfielder/forward depending on their roster construction that is currently performing well, or even a midfielder + forward combination that could offer them more week in and week out stability.

Trade Offer Value: Right now I would try to get Kudus by offering a MID2/3 + an upside defender/FWD3 as an opener. For the midfielders look to package one of: Mitoma, Martinelli, Szoboszlai, or Tavernier, adding players such as: Wan-Bissaka, Mitchell, Mazaraoui, Nketiah, Evanilson, or Zirkzee to get a deal done. You can also throw in 10-15 FAB to get it across the line.

Players To Trade-OUT

This section will focus on players that you should be actively trying to trade out over the next week or so. These players could be on course to see a minute reduction or be having a bad season that it seems they can't recover from. A lot of times name value players will feature here, as you will still find managers who believe they can return to their glory days. Each season brings new challenges and as we have seen even the very best assets can fall off a cliff in just a single season (Rashford of 2024). Look to trade out these players before their value becomes so low that you may need to consider dropping them.

Ollie Watkins (AVL - FWD)

Analysis: Watkins has had a very poor start to the season, if you don't count his brace against Everton. Now that Champions League is starting, this could be the perfect sell high moment. Villa have looked lost this season, and Watkins in particular hasn't been very good. He is extremely goal dependent, and this will more likely than not continue. Watkins must have been frustrating to those who used a top 10 pick on him this season, and now you may be able to get back at least early 2nd round value for him.

Most of you will know I am not a fan of Watkins this season, he was a "Do Not Draft" for me and I don't consider him a top 25 asset. And scoring two goals against relegation bound Everton hasn't really changed my mind on that. Forwards are a dime a dozen this year, so if you have 2-3 other solid forwards (something like Cunha + Semenyo/Savio), I would strongly recommend trying to use Watkins to get in another elite midfielder. Another dud performance in gameweek 5 could really hurt his value given that would be 4 poor gameweeks in his first 5. Emery is clearly missing Luiz in the heart of his team and until he figures out how to fix that, all of Villa will suffer, Watkins especially. Trade him out before another single digit outing.

Trade Offer Value: I would offer Watkins in a deal to get back one of these midfielders: Odegaard, Maddison, Kudus, or Bowen. I don't know if you can get a deal across 1:1 for any of these assets, but doing something like Watkins + Mainoo/Wharton/Mac Allister is a deal I would definitely do.

Marcus Rashford (MUN - FWD)

Analysis: Rashford finally got his first double digit outing of the season, against the surely Championship bound Saints. He managed 17 points with a goal, 1 key pass, and 3 shots on target. He only lasted 72 minutes in this one, with Diallo and Garnacho finishing the game. I think Rashford will be frustrating more often than not and Saints is not the proper game in which to gauge his value. Garnacho won't wait in the wings forever, and ETH benching Diallo has already been met with heavy criticism by fans and probably the board. The worst kind of asset to roster is frustrating United rotational winger, and Rashford has every chance of becoming that if he doesn't continue to perform the next few games.

As a result, he is the perfect sell-high candidate this week to a United fan, a manager needing a forward, or anyone believing he may return to his old ways. I just don't see that happening with ETH at the wheel. Rashford will have games like the one vs. Saints but I expect them to be a lot less frequent than his sub 7 point performances. Rashford was probably a 6th-7th round draft pick for many managers, and maybe you can get similar to that value after this game. At the very least maybe you can trade him for an upside midfielder with those impossible to find. If Rashford is sitting as your FWD2/3 and you roster 2-3 other set and forget forwards, then it should be your priority to target a midfielder in this trade.

Trade Offer Value: I would offer out Rashford 1:1 for the following midfielders if you can afford to lose a forward: Tavernier, Rogers, Kulusevski, and Bernardo Silva. Throw in some FAB (10-20) if necessary. If you want to aim higher for assets such as Mitoma or Doku, look to package Rashford with a steady eddie midfielder such as Wharton, Anderson, or Gravenberch.

Strategy Section

This section will highlight some of my unique strategies I use in Fantrax, and how you can apply them to your own style. I will look to discuss trends I am seeing in leagues, or tactics that I may shift to, that will better my chances of winning my league. A lot of these strategies could involve a high-risk high-reward approach, or be tactics I see my fellow managers using that I will be advocating against.

The 50/50 Gameday Decisions

Analysis: Every Fantrax manager will be faced with these decisions at least once a gameweek, if not more. Whether it be deciding between two defenders/midfielders to stream, who to start out of your 5 forwards, who to pick up after seeing some surprising lineup news, these decisions can make or break a gameweek. For our beloved Inner Circle members, we see the most common source for these questions is in our Discord IC Polls channel, which is a great way to gauge how the TDS staff and the community as a whole feel about a decision. Of course, the toolkit predictions should give you some sort of a clearer idea as well, but ultimately no-one can predict the outcome. I personally have 2 or 3 strategies I utilize to make these decisions.

The biggest factor to me is the matchup. If you are chasing the game, you always have to go with the players that have the most upside. This is regardless of how they did in the previous gameweek; take into account the matchup in which they are involved. Let's say you are deciding on Milenkovic vs. Brighton or Mitchell vs. Manchester United in your gameweek and you are down by 20. You could hope for a Forest clean sheet, but Mitchell by far has more upside given how much he is getting into the final third. While United could be considered a slightly tougher matchup, there isn't a huge discrepancy in difficulty to make that the defining factor. If you are chasing a game (unless you have significantly more players than your manager), never choose the safe floor option. Yes, in the end maybe a few of those floor players combined could have secured you the win, but without hindsight it is usually the option that leads to more frustration, especially if your consistent 7.5 PPS asset gets a yellow card. In short, upside trumps everything when chasing.

On the other hand, if you are in the lead, I usually still lean the upside route (rack up those Fpts for!!!). But there could be situations where playing a defender like Mosquera, who you know is good for at least 8ish ghosts, over the potential upside of Walker is the move. Walker is the definition of boom or bust. He needs a clean sheet or an attacking return to be of value. And if neither come to fruition, he could lose you your matchup. If you know you just need a safe 4-5 points and you win the week, always go the ghost point route (Mosquera) vs. the upside route (Walker).

With the new defender scoring, clean sheet matching could become a more valuable strategy. When choosing which defender to stream, it's usually helpful to pick up your opponent's center back partner in a game that has cleansheet potential. While obviously you have to use your judgement (some defenders are not worth picking up no matter what the situation), this could be a valuable tactic. For example, if your opponent had Davis or Greaves last week, you should have grabbed O'Shea when you saw lineups. You definitely would have set yourself up for a good gameweek.

Similarly, those who picked up one of Fofana/Colwill if your opponent had a Chelsea defender also found joy. While I don't condone this strategy every gameweek, in the right matchups, this is usually my deciding factor when choosing between 2 or 3 defenders to stream. The strategy is the same if you want to attempt to match a cleansheet, and either no defenders from that team remain or no worthwhile ones remain, you can look to pivot and stream that team's goalkeeper. Now the Forest vs. Liverpool game was very surprising last weekend, so without hindsight, I would have not recommended streaming a Forest defender to match your opponent. Usually I would only avoid this strategy when that team faces: Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool for now.

Genie Verdict: Upside is always the way to go except in rare cases. Attempting to match clean sheets could be a more viable strategy with the new scoring. Ghost point magnets should be your first go-to pickups.

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