Genie's corner is back with a "hot takes segment". Here are some of my more out there opinions for the upcoming Fantasy EPL season, as well as my reasoning behind them. Obviously these are just my opinions, but the hope is my reasoning will force you to at least reconsider your own stance, and maybe even agree with me. For more incredible analysis and draft help check out our 23/24 Draft Kit and our Pricing Plans.
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Draft Season - Hot Takes for 23/24
Genie is here with some hot takes as we head into the all-important Draft Season!
Kulusevski will be a Top 5 Midfielder
Last season, Kulusevski was the 39th best mid, with a PPS of 9.5 but only 23 starts. He managed 30 appearances total but was hampered with a combination of poor form, managerial changes, and injuries throughout the season. But he is still one of the most talented wingers in the EPL, and just hasn't hit his full stride yet. He is still young at only 23 years old, and just made his move to Spurs permanent. New manager Postecoglu, surely would have had his say in making Kulu a permanent signing, meaning he is firmly in his plans. Regardless of the system, Postecoglu likely slots Kulusevski into the right attacker role. He is a much better player than both Danjuma and Richarlison so she houldn't worry too much about his spot as long as he hits his levels.
There are really only three midfielders I consider above Kulusevski this year - Bruno, Saka, and Grealish. After that, I think Kulusevski is in contention for best of the rest. There will be a few other names competing with Kulu for a top 5 mid spot such as Martinelli, Odegaard, Foden, Eze, and Olise, but Kulu is my pick to be in the top 5.
A big key for the winger will be increasing his attacking returns, with only 7 goals since joining Spurs and only 2 last season. Postecoglu will be pushing for him to get closer to the double digit mark. Maddison joining Spurs only increases his prospects, with a proper creative player being in the XI for the first time since prime Eriksen. Maddison and his vision should only increase Kulusevski's prospects. Kulusevski managed 7 assists last season and 8 before that, and Harry Kane staying should help him finish close to the 8-10 assist mark. If Kane does leave, without a suitable replacement, I do expect Kulusevski's assist numbers to drop to the 5-6 mark. But the hope is his goals will increase and offset the drop in Key Passes and Assists from Kane's departure. For a player averaging 7.2 ghost points per start, it offers a solid starting floor for a lower end MID1 asset.
I would expect you could get Kulusevski sometime in the mid 3rd round unless he has a fantastic preseason. But if you are set on drafting him it might be worth reaching sometime in the 2nd round for him. I still wouldn't take him in the first round as the talent on the board is still better than him.
Brighton Won't Finish in the Top 10
After an incredible first half season under De Zerbi, this will seem like a hot take. Brighton seem to only be getting better, and have probably one of the best scouting networks in Europe, consistently finding true diamonds in the rough. I do, however, think they will experience a "second season slump". Usually this term applies to EPL teams that have just been promoted, had a good season, then struggle the next. But I think it will accurately describe Brighton this campaign.
Brighton will be competing in the Europa league next season, and don't have a lot of great depth at their disposal. They have just lost Mac Allister - probably one of their most important players - Caicedo has one foot out the door, and they will need certain players to play more than they are used to if they truly want to compete on all fronts. The likes of Dunk, Mitoma, March, Estupinan, and others will be asked to double up a lot of weeks, and that always increases the risk of fatigue/injury. I think Brighton will have a decent start to the season, but once the secondary competitions start coming into play, their form will drop.
Other EPL teams will also take Brighton a lot more seriously this year. Teams will treat them like a top 6 team, with the lower table teams potentially setting up a low block type situation, which Brighton may struggle to break. Top 6 teams will rotate less vs. Brighton, treating them as a top opponent. I think that Brighton will definitely avoid relegation, but won't be in the top 10. As a result, their players will suffer significantly in fantasy, and not perform to where they are drafted. As a result, selecting Brighton players in the first 3-4 rounds is going to cause managers a lot of frustration this year. This is one of those "genie gut" predictions here, which the full array of stats may not back up but hopefully makes you rethink where you take these assets.
Jesus will win the Golden Boot
Jesus is about to make City regret selling him. Yes, Haaland just set a record, and is only going to get better, but I don't think he retains his golden boot title. Kane is always up in the conversation every year, but I think if he even stays at Spurs, Postecoglu will be hoping it's not just a one man show. Jesus managed 11 goals in his 24 starts this season. It was his first season at Arsenal, and first season being the real focal point of the attack. While he was a key piece at City, he was always a third or fourth option, a lot of times being put out on the wing instead of playing through the middle.
The only thing that may hamper Jesus will be his injury record. While he doesn't have the worst of records, he will need to play close to 36 games to be able to achieve this feat. Jesus staying healthy will be key for Arteta if he wants to amount another serious title challenge this year. Jesus had an xG of just over 16, but only scored 11. While I'm not a huge believer in xG, it does show if he improves his composure in front of goal his teammates are giving him the chances to seriously contend for the golden boot.
Arsenal as a whole look to be improving their midfield with the additions of Rice and Kai. Rice is one of the best CDMs in the EPL which should offer Arsenal some more attacking threat, while the hope of using Kai as a #8 could provide a bit more of an attacking threat for Arsenal than Xhaka did. With the depth signing of Trossard on the wing as well, and Jesus having no real competition for his spot, he simply just needs to stay healthy.
I think taking Jesus in the first round this summer isn't a reach. While you can probably get him between picks 13-17, if you really want him, then I wouldn't mind taking him as high as 6-7 overall. Adding more goals to his already solid 8.1 ghost points per start will make him an easy top 10 player. Bet against Jesus at your own risk this season.
De Bruyne Won't Be Worth Rostering
I feel like we've been here before and I've been wrong, but this season is different. De Bruyne is already confirmed to be missing the beginning of the season, meaning he will need his own mini preseason just to get up to speed. I think once De Bruyne is ready to start training he will need at least 6 weeks before he gets his first start. After that it'll really be a toss up based on how he reacts, and how City is coping without him. While he is still one of the best players on this team, this could be the start of Pep moving on from his star playmaker, who at 32 is not getting any younger.
I would expect the likes of Foden, Grealish, Alvarez, and maybe even Mahrez (if he stays) to benefit greatly with a lot of the creative load being forced upon them. De Bruyne is still going to go in the early first round in many leagues. I would strongly advise against drafting him there. You will basically be without your first round pick for the first part of the season (TBD exactly when he features). Even if he has a PPS of 18, he could only get 15-20 starts this year. Having your first round pick start only about 50% of games will not be an easy to manage. While De Bruyne could win you 5-7 games on his own, you will be stressing about if he starts, especially when City play late in the gameweek. There are plenty of players available in the first round who can outperfom De Bruyne, even in the back end of the first half. I would focus on them instead.
The 3 Biggest Flops of the Season
Kaoru Mitoma
As mentioned above, I fear for Brighton's prospects this season. Their biggest flop will probably be the player drafted highest. I think come draft season March and Mitoma will both be close in ADP, but a lack of set pieces makes Mitoma the bigger disappointment. Despite Mitoma being full of energy, talent, and potential, I don't think he will reach the fantasy heights many envision. I really do want to see Mitoma do well, I am a huge fan of his, and think he is brilliant when in form. But this season I expect him to face more early subs, less attacking returns, but overall should still be a solid MID3-4. He is a flop because of the fact he will be the MID1 for almost anyone who drafts him. I expect him to go somewhere between picks 12-20 depending on your league, which is just way too high for me.
Cody Gakpo
Gakpo made a name for himself at the World Cup, then was promptly signed by Liverpool. He has done well at Liverpool since his debut - delivering 7 goals and 2 assists in 17 starts. While Gakpo started 17 of 21 games for which he was available, my fear is that this ratio whill fall next season. Liverpool have 5 attackers for 3 spots: Salah, Diaz, Jota, Nunez, and Gakpo. With Salah a lock, it is 4 guys for 2 spots. I think Diaz when fit will also be a near lock, with Jota/Nunez rotating in the striker role. I think Gakpo will battle Diaz for a wing spot, but also get some time through the middle. Unfortunately it is a dart throw with anyone not named Salah here. I'm hedging my bets on Gakpo being the one to suffer especially when all fit. A lack of Champions League may also mean these attackers more often than not won't complete 90 minutes in the EPL. The only times Gakpo has crossed double digits is with a return, meaning his ghost points aren't the best anyways. He will probably go sometime in the 2nd-3rd round, which is too early. If he falls to you in the 5th, I think he'll be worth a punt there.
Dwight McNeil
Would it really be a Genie article if I didn't advocate against drafting McNeil? I can't even deny McNeil had a great season after Dyche was appointed. But as we saw, Everton barely escaped relegation. The year before Burnley were relegated with McNeil as the chief creator. While the squad as a whole on these teams isn't exactly great, Everton really need to find themselves a more talented focal point if they want to just "avoid relegation" again this year. I do think McNeil will get his fair share of starts under Dyche, but the hope is he is no longer their focal point. He will become a secondary or even a third choice attacking option, significantly lowering his output. Seven goals in 28 starts isn't the best return but it is by far his best season in the EPL. While many managers will be hoping he only improves, I think 7 goals is truly his ceiling. I have seen him go as early as round 2 in mocks, which is too early for me. Steer clear of him.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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