International Break - Genie's Corner and Trade Advice

This article will focus on trade advice that highlights players that are either worth trading in on a low, or trading out on a high. This could involve players who could see their minutes reduced, have a purple patch come to an end, or on the flip side involve players who might be starting to heat up. This article will also feature advice and strategy tips from our very own Draft Genie, and his interesting style of playing the game.

Players To Trade-In

This section will focus on players to target in your trade offers. Usually there are two types of players to trade-in. The ones you "buy low" on, who may be in a poor patch of form, injured, or not seeing consistent minutes with all that about to change. The second is where you "buy high". While that will sound contradictory, these players could be showing no signs of slowing down and are en-route to a breakout season. You want to try and trade-in these players before they become unattainable, even if it involves offering more than what their draft-day or early-season value was.

The High-Upside Ghost Point Magnets (More than 9 Ghosts Per Start)

• Adama Traore (FWD - FUL)

• Bryan Mbeumo (FWD - BRE)

• James Tarkowski (DEF - EVE)

• Riccardo Calafiori (DEF - ARS)

• Kevin De Bruyne (MID - MCI)

• Gabriel Martinelli (MID - ARS)

Analysis: The players above have all been quietly ticking along in the ghost point counter. While some have added a good chunk of returns as well (Mbeumo), others could be undervalued by their current managers, and now might be the time to swoop in. Now most of these assets will not be easy to get, but they seem like they will continue to churn out steady points while putting up monster scores when they pick up attacking returns. On their bad weeks, scores of 8 won't really harm your chances of winning the week, and their good performances can sometimes singlehandedly win you gameweeks.

Let's start with a favourite of mine and fellow analyst Ryan, Adama Traore. An absolute baller on his day, as we saw at Wolves, he is showing he can do it again when given the minutes. He is averaging close to 10 ghosts per start, and even ghosted well (8.25) in the loss to City. Adama has also started adding returns to his game with 1G and 2A in 7 starts. That number should be much higher with him missing some key chances last week vs. City, and in previous weeks his teammates fluffing chances he set up perfectly for them. He is currently 7th among forwards, and if his returns increase, he could crack the top 5. He does have the possibility of being rotated with Nelson waiting for his chance, but it seems more likely it will be Iwobi or Smith-Rowe to rotate.

Mbeumo is now the talisman at Brentford. Averaging over 9 ghost points per start, and currently a top 3 forward with 6 goals to his name, he will not be an easy asset to get. However, he is more than worth the large investment. Based off early returns, he and Brentford will always try to outscore the opposing team. He is one of the assets I would "sell the farm" for right now. Brentford have gotten through the tough part of the schedule and now could be cruising until December. With Toney gone, and Mbeumo on penalties, I could easily see him staying a top 3 FWD or even slowly closing in on Salah with this schedule. Buy, buy, buy!!!

Tarkowski was undervalued by many - including me - but now Everton are starting to improve defensively and Branthwaite is hopefully nearly back to full fitness. Tarkowski is averaging over 10 ghosts per game, and is not showing any signs of slowing down. If Everton manage to improve their CS numbers and concede less than 2 goals a game, you could be rostering prime Tarks once again. His recent improvements will have driven his price up, but I still believe he is gettable. I will also group Calafiori here since he is the only other defender on this list. He is averaging around 13 ghosts per start, and has clearly won out the LB spot - at least for now. Arsenal currently have the 2nd best defence in the league, and with his attacking potential he has DEF1 upside. If you are in need of a defender, these are the two to chase after this International Break.

Lastly, we have two extremely high upside midfielders that both have concerns over total starts. Let's start with the injury prone De Bruyne. When fit he is basically a lock in the XI, but as he gets older, and continues to push himself, the injuries seem to be hard to escape. The one really positive piece of news is he is not going to be joining Belgium on the next 2 breaks to ensure he doesn't increase his injury risk. Averaging 11 ghosts per start, and just 2 returns to his name, he is a must target this break. Managers may be getting frustrated if they have lost the last 2 games for which he was injured. I consider him a must target this international break.

After a rough 22/23 campaign, Martinelli is making a name for himself again this season. He is back with 2 goals and 2 assists to his name and 9.5 ghosts per start. The Arsenal winger should continue to thrive as the left hand side is shored up by Calafiori and potentially Merino. Managers with an uncertain midfield may be more inclined to trade out Martinelli with Trossard and Sterling (somewhat) giving him a rotation risk. However, I believe Martinelli is the clear first choice. Only one of his five starts was in the single digits, and he went double digits even in difficult fixtures away from the Emirates, including at Man City. Avoid at your own risk.

Trade Offer Value: Obviously coming out with detailed offers for each player will be difficult. Managers will be more inclined to keep most of these assets, so I will try to give you offers to send that may seem like you are overpaying but in reality you are getting back good value. Offering big name assets that aren't proving they can bring in the points is always a great place to start. If you don't roster any of the players below, try to use players that fit a similar mold to the ones I have recommended.

Adama - Jota/Semenyo + Greaves/Burn/Tonali/Schade

Mbeumo - Diaz/Jackson/Cunha/Brennan + Cook/Lemina/Gravenberch

Tarkowski - Robertson(1:1) OR Saliba/Mitchell + Kovacic/Ndidi + 10 FAB

Calafiori - Robertson(1:1) OR Saliba/Mitchell + Kovacic/Ndidi + 10 FAB

De Bruyne - McNeil/Gordon/Mitoma + Ndiaye/Strand Larsen/DCL + 20 FAB

Martinelli - Tavernier/Bernardo/Kulusevski + Gravenberch/Joelinton/Mac Allister + FAB

Players To Trade-OUT

This section will focus on players that you should be actively trying to trade out over the next week or so. These players could be on course to see a minute reduction or be having a bad season that it seems they can't recover from. A lot of times name value players will feature here, as you will still find managers who believe they can return to their glory days. Each season brings new challenges and as we have seen even the very best assets can fall off a cliff in just a single season (Rashford of 2024). Look to trade out these players before their value becomes so low that you may need to consider dropping them.

The Return Dependent Assets (Less than 6 Ghosts Per Start)

• Jamie Vardy (FWD - LEI)

• Emile Smith-Rowe (MID - FUL)

• Andrew Robertson (DEF - LIV)

• Alexis MacAllister (MID - LIV)

• William Saliba (DEF - ARS)

• Jorgen Strand Larsen (FWD - WOL)

  
  

Analysis: Now we come to the players that are probably frustrating you to the point in which you have considered dropping them the odd week. None of these players are close to even 6 ghosts per start with MacAllister at 5.6 ghosts per start leading the pack...yikes. All the players listed above will need returns to crack double digits or sometimes even crack 6 points, and aren't really able to nick many attacking returns.

Let's start with the two defenders in Robertson and Saliba. Both of these players are hovering around 5.5 ghosts per start, and will need a clean sheet to have any hope of cracking 10, and even then it isn't guaranteed. Liverpool and Arsenal are two of the best defences in the league, and while the chances of a clean sheet are always likely with these two, it just doesn't warrant enough upside to be set on rostering either Saliba or Robertson. Robertson usually has attacking upside, and takes his fair share of sets, but none of that seems to be helping his really poor scoring this season. The top three defenders are all Liverpool players, but Robertson is nowhere near their levels. Tsimikas has proven to be a more than capable deputy as well, and as we saw last weekend can easily rotate into the XI. Arsenal are keeping less clean sheets this year (although that may be a result of their very difficult opening schedule), and Saliba doesn't do enough to be an upside or even solid defender play. Both these players have the name value - especially in home leagues - to command decent assets in return.

Next up we have the two strikers in Vardy and Strand Larsen. Both of these players can score, and both can also do absolutely nothing. Those who play in leagues with me will know I don't really like goal-dependent strikers on my team (Hojlund aside). I do feel they can more often than not cost you a gameweek, especially when they are on a bottom table side. Both Vardy and Strand Larsen are on two teams that are currently fighting off relegation, and while they will have decent weeks, those could be far and few between. Strand Larsen has only scored more than 4.5 in 3 of his 7 starts....in all of which he needed a return. Vardy is even worse. He has scored 2 points or less in 5 of his 7 starts. He needed goals to crack 10 in his other two games. Both of these players are rostered in many competitive leagues, and need to be traded out for either more upside rotational assets or ghost point defenders. Neither of these teams have impressed me from an attacking point of view to make either of these assets even good enough FWD4s.

Smith-Rowe has been great since arriving from Arsenal, but similar to every other player on this list, he does literally nothing without a goal. Averaging just 4.7 ghosts per start, you need him to score or assist in his 70ish minutes to be of use that week. Smith-Rowe has impressed Silva, and he has said he will continue to improve his fitness. As we saw this weekend it seems he could be the one to make way for a more defensively sound midfield in the tougher fixtures. On top of that, he is more often than not one of the first substitutions made. He has 3 returns in 6 starts, meaning 3 double digit scores. With a somewhat decent schedule he would be a very good MID5, but given he was going as early as round 5, he could be a lot of managers MID2/3. If he is your MID5, I would recommend keeping him as your "boom and bust" asset. But if your team is depending on his consistency, then look to trade out.

Finally, we have MacAllister, a player who usually gets more plaudits in fantasy than he deserves. In real life, he's an incredible player and pivotal to Liverpool. In fantasy, however, he does your team more harm than good. MacAllister has had 0 attacking returns this season, and only 1 double digit outing, a very rare ghost point masterclass vs. Bournemouth. Outside of that he really is no better than your FA pickup midfielders such as Christie, Mainoo, and Caicedo. Why on earth would you still roster him then? Well, with any Liverpool player there is always a chance they get in on the goals/assists and last season MacAllister got himself 10 returns. Well, this year under a new manager his attacking stats are a lot less promising - averaging around 1 Key Pass a game and only 2 Shots on Target all season. Look to trade out on his name value, especially if you have Liverpool fans in your league.

Trade Offer Value: For some of these assets you will not likely get much value, so my first recommendation is to use these players in packages for any of the players listed in the trade-in section. I will try to give you approximate values below of the kind of value you could potentially get back for any of these players on their own. However, these players will be of much stronger value in 2:2 or 3:2 type of deals.

Vardy - Package Vardy in a deal to try and get back a forward such as Sancho, Mavididi, or Ndiaye. 1:1 aim for Faes, Branthwaite or Lacroix from managers desperate for a FWD.

Smith-Rowe - Use him in a package to aim for assets such as: Madueke or Gibbs-White.

Robertson - Aim for defenders such as: Robinson, Calafiori, Dalot, or Gvardiol. Will need to add a +1 or a chunk of FAB.

MacAllister - Borderline droppable with the potential injury. Package in a deal for assets such as: Kulusevski, Garnacho, or Madueke. The +1 will need to be a good asset to make this happen. 1:1 targets such as: Iwobi or Barnes could be doable.

Saliba - Aim for defenders such as: Davis, De Ligt, or Pinnock.

Strand Larsen - Similar to Vardy package him for assets such as: Sancho or DCL.

Strategy Section

This section will highlight some of my unique strategies I use in Fantrax, and how you can apply them to your own style. I will look to discuss trends I am seeing in leagues, or tactics that I may shift to, that will better my chances of winning my league. A lot of these strategies could involve a high-risk high-reward approach, or be tactics I see my fellow managers using that I will be advocating against.

Standings Start to Matter

Analysis: We are at the point where it is time to start looking at the standings. Usually I always say you can recover from an 0-7; in fact, I have twice in years past. But it is close to now or never time. We have completed close to 20% of the season, so starting to pay attention to wins, losses, and pts for, and week to week matchups become more crucial. I am never in the camp of sacrificing matchups to hold assets for the future, especially potentially droppable assets, or long term injury holds. But now more than ever you should do what you can to win each matchup. Sometimes that means making tougher drops. After about 7 weeks, player values are starting to show. While of course there are some "elite" players that have yet to prove their worth (Foden and Bruno), you will be able to tell which teams are better to stream assets from, and the matchups that have become favourable.

All these data points and results so far should help you have a better idea of how to approach each week. Short term schedules start to become a little more important. For example - Leicester City play Saints, Forest, and Ipswich in the next three. While Leicester have been...bad...these are games where streamers like Justin, Faes, and even Vardy are the upside plays and smart moves that can win you weeks. How so? Leicester play 2 other teams in relegation territory, and in these games you can expect Cooper to keep a defensively sturdy ship, while hoping to nick a 1-0 or 2-1 win as seen vs. Bournemouth. Little insights like this as the EPL continues to progress inform the kind of strategy you need to employ on a week to week basis moving forward.

When looking for streamers, at this point I only like to look for 2 weeks at a time. We are nowhere near playoffs where you need to start holding players, and all of the "season keeper" type of streamers are likely already rostered. This means looking past 2 weeks won't really benefit you. Remember every win will start to matter, especially if you find yourself with a 3-4 record or worse. You should also approach trades with more of a shorter term approach, unless they involve your elite (top 4-6 assets). In this sense, for example, trading out players such as Cook and Tavernier ahead of a very tough next 6-7 games for Bournemouth can benefit your team in that interim period. You aren't selling at a loss, but looking for players with much friendlier schedules.

Genie Verdict: Week to week strategies become more important. Short-term streaming needs to start now. If a player is out for more than 4-6 weeks (unless elite), drop them. Use matchup winning strategies such as clean sheet matching and stacking to push for a win when a loss looks likely. Trade out non-elite assets based on schedules.

The Trades to Make If You Have a Losing Record

Analysis: Building off of the above point, if you are someone who is struggling with a losing record but roster some "high name value" assets, you should start to consider some big trades. I have discussed this in a previous edition, but looking to do a 3:1 or 2:1 with your high value assets is the best place to start. In my leagues I see managers who roster assets such as Isak, Odegaard, Bruno, Nunez, and Foden struggling to put together consistent wins. If you are one of these managers, you need to look to sell some of these assets. Managers who are near the top of the table will be more inclined to send in offers and take those risks. While it may seem weird to make the title challenger teams stronger, if you can gain week to week value, you really are doing yourself no harm.

For example, there will still be managers willing to pay 1st or 2nd round value for assets such as Isak and Odegaard despite their injuries and struggles. This is how you can start crawling back up the table. Getting in 2-3 players that can start for you every week will prevent you from needing to rely on the likes of Norgaard to get you 10+ in weeks, and instead have a consistent XI with maybe a few punts sprinkled in. If you are struggling in the table and roster one of those assets or similar ones, float the idea to your group chat that you are open to selling those assets and see what kind of value comes back. You may end up getting a lot more value than you think. From my own experience I usually find managers are willing to OVERPAY to get a 2:1 across the line where they get a free roster spot and the "better" asset.

The Trade Calculator in our Toolkit as well as polling options in the IC-Polls discord channel can be very helpful resources to assess potential value for these assets. Remember name value will not win leagues; it's points. While it sounds cool to have a team that contains all these round 1-3 assets, this won't help you win. I still a remember a trade that changed the fate of my league standings a few seasons ago. I traded out Sterling (who just got his move to Chelsea) for my boys Demarai Gray and Marcus Rashford. While trading out a first rounder just 2 weeks after the season started for picks from rounds 5 and 8 seems a bit crazy, it set me on my way to a league winning season. It also started a domino effect of multiple trades. But even if it doesn't, just getting those two alone for Sterling helped my team get the week to week wins.

Genie Verdict: Sell the big under-performing names who look "off it" for consistent starters in return. Points and role production are more important than name value. Flagging players in your group chat that you want to trade out will lead to a lot more offers then sending out blind offers.

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