Overvalued 23/24 Draft Premier League Players

The hype is real - or is it? A lot of factors go into how we feel about players in the run up to the Fantasy EPL draft. How did they finish this season? Did they join a better team or system over the summer? Were they injured? Will they benefit from another season in a new league? All of these things are considered when analyzing and predicting value for the upcoming draft. We have you covered with players whose value is inflated and should be avoided that early, as well as some undervalued assets that could outperform their average draft positions. For more incredible analysis and draft help check out our 23/24 Draft Kit and our Pricing Plans.

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Overvalued Draft Premier League Players

Every draft has its players that have too much hype and are being taken way too early. It is crucial to recognize who they are, try to avoid them, and opt for value instead. These players are all coming off decent seasons but it is a deceptive facade. They'll be good but not that good, and they'll go earlier in the draft than they should. Mac Allister won't be able to replicate his Brighton fantasy form, managers are too bullish on his former colleagues (Brighton assets) after last season, Pedro Porro's playing time may not be guaranteed, and the temptation to reach for promoted players still does not pay off.

Alexis MacAllister | Liverpool | Midfielder

Sound the bells, it's really happened, Liverpool has signed a new midfielder! A very long time coming, Klopp has finally made the move to freshen up, to put it mildly, a very stale midfield. And he got his hands on a World Cup winner no less in Alexis MacAllister, who can really do it all in the middle of the park. He became a revelation at Brighton, peaking last season with 31 starts, 10 goals, and 2 assists. Fantasy-wise, he was among the top midfield scorers, averaging over 11 points per start, 8.2 of which were ghost points. So there is a reason why both Liverpool fans and fantasy managers are excited about his prospects at a better team.

However, the latter should be temper expectations coming into the draft. First, Mac will be off penalties & any sets at Liverpool with Trent & Salah lurking - 6 of his10 goals last campaign were from the penalty spot. Another high profile midfield signing, Dominik Szoboszlai, may also steal some of his thunder. Second, the red half of Merseyside is where midfield fantasy points go to die. No midfielder has been able to break the curse and become a consistent fantasy scorer at Liverpool. While Mac Allister is talented enough to become the exception, the system just doesn't reward those in the engine room. The top scoring midfielder (with more than 12 starts) last season was Harvey Elliott with just over 6 points per start. While the Argentine should provide a much needed boost to Liverpool's midfield in real life, his fantasy value is likely inflated. He should be avoided that early in the draft.

Estimated Draft Pick: Early-Mid 3rd Round

Draft Pick Value: Mid 4th Round/Early 5th Round

Brighton Assets

Roberto De Zerbi's European qualifying Brighton was quite a pleasant surprise last time out. The usually mid table squad made a legitimate push for a top 4 spot for a portion of the season, and ended in a very impressive 6th place finish. They also did it playing some great stuff, banging in the 4th most goals in the league (72 goals; only below the prolific Man City, Arsenal, & Liverpool). Fantasy-wise, the Seagulls boasted two players (March & Gross) in the top 15 in scoring (Mitoma would have surely made the cut if he had more starts). As well, many young talents were unearthed during the course of the campaign - Enciso, Buonanotte, Ferguson, etc.

Given all this excitement, folks will be champing at the bit to take Brighton players early and often in the draft. The likes of March & Mitoma will likely go in the early 2nd round, Gross in the 3rd, newcomer Joao Pedro in the 4th, and others. Again, the team scores goals and garners fantasy points, but there are a few hurdles/points of contention, which would make these valuations above inflated.

Brighton will have to adjust to the grueling demands of its first European campaign - the Thursday/Sunday grind results in more injuries, fatigue, and - you guessed it - rotation. Exacerbating the situation for fantasy managers is the fact that they have great depth in the attacking positions. For the non-striker roles, they have March, Mitoma, Enciso, Buonanotte, Pedro, and god knows who else waiting in the wings. Brighton are thus likely to become a Man City lite this season - forcing managers to roster a handful of the team's assets to deal with the constant rotation. This makes reaching for Seagulls a riskier proposition, which must be priced in. So if you do decide to ride the rollercoaster, make sure you have proper cover.

Pedro Porro | Tottenham Hotspur | Defender

Porro arrived in the January transfer window with much fanfare, especially amongst fantasy managers, who were licking their lips at the prospects of him bombing down the right side and pumping in crosses to Harry Kane. He had a slow start but this finally came to fruition. He delivered 3 goals and 3 assists in just 13 starts, boasting an average of 10.3 points per start & 9.3 ghost points per start. Porro is staying at Spurs, with a half season under his belt, and will now be playing under a much more attacking manager. What's not to love?

Well, it's not that simple. While new manager Ange Postecoglu does play more free-flowing football, he does not play a wing-back system, and relies on his fullbacks for some defensive duties. Thus, he may prefer someone like Emerson Royal, who had a decent spell last season and has more defensive nous to his game. That would leave Porro as more of a super-sub and/or potentially an option at right wing, which is pretty congested with Kulusevski & even Richarlison occupying that spot. This team, especially early, will also likely find clean sheets at a premium, damaging the fantasy value of all Spurs defenders. And if Harry Kane leaves, who is he going to cross to? This is, of course, worst case scenario. Postecoglu may see Porro's immense value and find a way to field him as his starting RB. And we all know how well he can score when he starts. But given this inherent danger, investing an early 3rd round pick (he went as early as pick 23 in one Expert Mock Draft) is too risky.

Estimated Draft Pick: Early 3rd Round

Draft Pick Value: Mid-Late 4th Round

Many Promoted Assets (Same As Last Year)

Everyone wants to be the hipster in the draft, pretending to have avidly watched the Championship last season. This savant in the draft is knowledgeable about relatively unknown players from the newly-promoted teams. I tried this by drafting Ruben Neves early in the 2018/2019 draft (seems like yesterday) - and it cost me. The fact is that very few of these assets pan out (Mitrovic in Round 3 in 2019/2020 is more the norm than the Serb in the 2022/2023 draft) and often it is the overlooked ones from these Premier League new boys that prove to be the real gems. There are usually only one or two standouts from the Championship that are fairly predictable (e.g., Toney). Other exceptions would be promoted players that were recently in the Premier League and can thus be trusted more than others (someone like Brownhill). Otherwise, it's largely a crapshoot.

As a result, you can usually wait a few GWs for these diamonds in the rough (e.g., Pinnock, Anguissa, Felipe, etc) to emerge on the waiver wire. This is due to these assets either going undrafted or the fact that many managers drop promoted assets early in the season (even earlier than usual/earlier than more trusted players) due to the unknowns and lack of faith in players from new teams. So if they don't perform immediately, in GWs 1 or 2, they get dropped. To add insult to injury, promoted teams usually face brutal schedules early doors. This will further accelerate this collective dumping of promoted assets onto the waiver wire. So either trust in well-researched players or just wait and monitor the wire closely (I favor the latter). Given the rough early fixtures, many of these assets will be dropped/available by GW 6 when the schedule is more favorable. Promoted team assets will likely go way too early yet again; don't fall for it.

Honorable Mention

• Jack Grealish: He has come into his own in Pep's system and became a relatively consistent starter (a rarity for Man City). And he finished with an impressive 12 points per start. But he only bagged 5 EPL goals in a treble-winning season. While he'll be a great asset, the first round is still too early for someone who isn't as explosive as others (only four 20+ point performances; none above 27.5).

• Alex Moreno: The Spaniard was one of the best January transfers, ending the season with 10 points per start. But he had a few bad games near the end of the season and also suffered a serious injury, which required surgery. It's unknown if he'll be ready in time for the season opener and how it will affect his play. It will be important to monitor his progress over the summer. A good player but he is likely to be drafted before he should.

• Christian Eriksen: While the great Dane has yet to reach his previous heights at Tottenham or Brentford (fantasy-wise, of course), he has been a decent asset. But with Mason Mount coming in, Eriksen will find it difficult to get starts. He has also shown some attacking return dependence and is largely off set pieces. His name recognition probably means he'll be taken off the board too early.

• Miguel Almiron: Many managers will only remember the Paraguayan's amazing purple patch, not when he came back down to earth later in the season and reverted to the mean. In addition, he is very goal dependent and Newcastle is adding midfielders so his starts will likely be limited. I'll let others take the punt.

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