The Premier League signings are already rolling in, so our Summer Transfer Analysis will delve into the prospects of all the major transfers. It’s imperative that you know who the new signings are ahead of the upcoming Fantasy EPL drafts, and what kind of impact they could have on the Premier League! This series of articles will form a key part of our biggest and best Draft Kit yet! Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 edition.
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The Premier League New Summer Transfer Signings covered here occurred between 11th June and 10th July.
Premier League New Signings Analysis 22/23
We outline each Premier League new signing individually, providing our views on how they will perform this season and a star rating is given based on their upcoming prospects! We use a five-star rating model to rank the new signings; use these hints and tips to help get your Draft Premier League season off to a flyer!
We’ve ranked the prospects based on a star rating, from 1 to 5:
⭐️ = Steer clear
⭐️⭐️ = Wait and see
⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Could be worth a punt
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Great prospect
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = The Premier League signing you’ve been waiting for!
Darwin Nunez
Position: Striker (Forward in Fantrax)
Team: Liverpool
Signed From: Benfica for £67.5m
Prospects: Nunez comes from Portugal off a deadly season for Benfica: he scored 26 goals, had 4 assists, and averaged 21.1 fpts and 9.1 ghost points per 90. He was quite expensive, but Liverpool have an impressive scouting record, and must have full confidence in their new man. If you’re doubtful of the Portuguese stats, Nunez also scored 14 fpts and 6.1 ghost pts on average in 6 Champions League starts next year. Some say it was his performance vs Liverpool that really made them want to bring him to Anfield. There will of course be an adjustment period for the Uruguayan coming to the most challenging domestic league in the world. Klopp has already been quoted about having patience with Nunez. He doesn’t quite have the profile of City’s new superstar, Haaland, and Liverpool have other players capable of playing through the middle (i.e. Firmino and Jota), so they don’t need to rush him into the starting lineup consistently to start the season. But he scored incredibly well (97th percentile in non-penalty goals compared), carried the ball well (91st percentile in progressive carries), dribbled often (88th percentile in successful dribbles) and contributed on the defensive side of things (high tackle and interception numbers for an attacker) so there's plenty of reason to believe he'll come good and be a great player for a long time. In terms of opportunity, Nunez really is competing for a spot in the front 3 with 4+ other options in Salah, Diaz, Jota, and Firmino. All have varying degrees of experience in the team, but all have already proven their worth to Klopp so all deserve significant time. I think it’s very possible Nunez only starts half the games before Christmas in EPL. Some might even argue that’s aggressive for a new signing from the Portuguese league coming into a top 2 EPL side. But Nunez is special, and both Diaz and Jota proved themselves useful rather quickly, and Diaz also came from Portugal!
Regardless, temper your expectations early season for the amount of opportunity Nunez gets immediately. He certainly could get off to a hot start and get a run of games, but it’s equally, if not more likely that’ll he’ll slowly be integrated, starting 1 out of every couple, and then slowly grow his opportunity. What I’m building to is: his production when starting will be great in a Liverpool attack, but his opportunity (or # of starts) may leave you frustrated early season. Personally, I wouldn’t draft him nearly as early as his ADP of 14 but instead try to trade him in later (let’s say 5-10 gameweeks in) when he’s established himself more. Ideally, you get him around picks 25-30, but unlikely. If he wins the starting striker role and sticks sooner rather than later, you could be looking at a top 10 player by end of season. Purely a question of timing and patience.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Taiwo Awoniyi
Position: Striker (Forward in Fantrax)
Team: Nottingham Forest
Signed From: Union Berlin for £18m
Prospects: Awoniyi had a breakout season last year in the Bundesliga, where the 24 year old scored 15 goals and assisted twice in 29 starts for Union Berlin. Believe it or not, he was actually on Liverpool for the 5 years prior to that, going out on loan often to German and Belgium clubs. Berlin then bought him for £8m and doubled their cost a year later. Awoniyi is predominantly a goal scorer, but has loads of potential and has a chance to spearhead Forest's attack. He'll likely slot straight into the starting lineup as part of a dynamic duo with Brennan Johnson (more to come on him in the Forest writeups and promoted pieces). Watch out for Forest signing another forward though as this could lead to more rotation. As for performance expectations, last season Taiwo averaged 12.6 fpts and 6.8 ghost points per 90 in the Bundesliga. That means his goal/assist dependency was quite high, which doesn't bode particularly well for a promoted EPL side that will very likely be bottom half of the table. Berlin finished 5th and scored 50 goals in the league (in 34 games), the 12th-15th placed EPL teams scored on average scored 48 (in 38 games). But Taiwo is still developing and perhaps he can still put up a respectable enough 8+ pps or so, good enough for a forward who should start plenty to be drafted in Fantrax. He is mainly a goalscorer (npxG 88th percentile last season), but also dribbles well and often for a central attacker (78th percentile for dribbles completed) and is decent in the air (60th percentile for aerials won). You would do well to get him in the 11th round or later (his ADP is currently early 12th but will likely drop pretty substantially)
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐1/2
Sven Botman
Position: Centre back (Defender in Fantrax)
Team: Aston Villa
Signed From: Lille for £33m
Prospects: Signing Botman is a bit of a coup for Newcastle as the centre back has been well-regarded in Europe for a couple seasons now. Newcastle actually pursued him last season but failed to sign until this summer amidst tough competition from AC Milan (who unsurprisingly could not match Newcastle's financial strength). Botman is a left footed centre back who distributes the ball well (89th percentile for passes completed last season), is solid in the air (66th percentile of aerials won), and contributes in the attack (0.1 goals per 90, but is not a volume defender (low pressures, tackles, interceptions numbers). His fantasy numbers reflect that as he averaged 7.5 fpts and 6.3 ghost points (with 3 goals, 1 assist, and 8 clean sheets). Lille and Newcastle are comparable enough sides in their respective leagues in terms of table position, so similar numbers can be reasonably expected. In terms of opportunity, he is almost definitely a starter for Newcastle. He has played on both sides of a centre-back pairing but predominantly played LCB last season. It remains to be seen whether he pairs Burn (also a lefty and played mostly LCB) or Schar (a righty and RCB but arguably not as good as Burn last season).
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️
Fabio Vieira
Position: Attacking Mid/Winger/Central Mid (Midfielder in Fantrax)
Team: Arsenal
Signed From: Porto for £32m
Prospects: Vieira is a very interesting signing. Coming out of the Porto youth system, the 22 year old's minutes have slowly grown in the Porto senior side. Last season, he has 27 appearances, but still only 15 starts. Of course, that's only a sliver of the story though. His production within his limited minutes was quite impressive: 14 assists in 1330 minutes (about 15 90's) as well as 6 goals (which comes out to over 1.3 goal contributions per 90). He's been aggressively compared to KDB in terms of his playstyle: he attempts (and has a knack for completing) the riskiest/trickiest of passes. That trait plus his heavy presence on set pieces lead him to 2.3 key passes per 90. How will this translate to the Prem? Always the (many) million dollar question. For sake of brevity, lets assume he cannot keep up his 20.7 fpts and 10.8 gpts/90 he had in Portugal. Even if he halved that production, he'd be a very useful fantasy asset.
However, the main issue (and why he doesn't have more starts) is the lack of opportunity Vieira is likely to see, particularly early in the season. Vieira can play as a CAM or RW or RCM to a lesser degree. Arsenal have a pretty settled side, particularly in those positions. Saka and Odegaard are near the first two names on the team sheet and will likely only be rotated minorly or due to injury. As a result Vieira will likely find opportunities hard to come by. He is a very talented player though, so if he does seize his chance when he finally gets it, he could hang on and be quite the producer. One other thing to note here is that Vieira was seen in a walking boot during pre-season and has not yet been training. Vieira could be a useful 2nd half of season player (or after a starter injury) but likely won't help your team much in the first 10 weeks, so I wouldn't waste anything better than a round 13 pick or later on him. He's also a nice safety valve/handcuff for Saka/Odegaard if you end up drafting them.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️
Yves Bissouma
Position: Central Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)
Team: Tottenham Spurs
Signed From: Brighton for £27m
Prospects: Bissouma is a well-known quantity for followers of the Premier League. He’s regularly been Brighton’s most consistent performers. He’s an all-action centre mid who particularly excels on the defensive side. Don’t let the price tag fool you; Bissouma was likely only this cheap cause of his expiring contract. The childhood Arsenal fan signed with their bitter rivals, so if your friend ever tells you, “Oh player X will sign for us, he was a fan at birth”, don’t believe them. Getting into value, Bissouma has his work cut out for him in terms of winning opportunities at Spurs. Conte had a very settled midfield 2 towards the end of the 21/22 season in Hojbjerg and Bentancur. Bissouma is theoretically a better defensively minded option than Hoj but is he a better all rounder? That’s more debatable. Ultimately, I think he will win the starting role for majority of matches, but I expect some significant rotation to start the season. Regardless of opportunity, Bissouma’s production is only mediocre: average of 7 fpts and 6.4 ghost points in 25 starts for Brighton last year (with 1 goal and 2 assists). He’s a pretty classic example of high floor, low ceiling. If you ever read any start/sit articles from last season, you know how often these guys fell into the sit teams. The biggest result of this transfer might actually be the knock-on effect of more play time for the Brighton assets like Mwepu and Caicedo.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️
Joe Rothwell
Position: Central midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)
Team: Bournemouth
Signed From: Blackburn on a free transfer (market value £5m)
Prospects: Rothwell played in the Championship last season and was recruited by both Bournemouth and Forest this offseason to help them in the engine room. He's an attack minded center mid who will likely play as an 8 for the Cherries, thus competing for minutes with Jefferson Lerma and Phillip Billing. Rothwell is a solid creator and ball progresser and adds much needed depth and experience to the team's mid. He scored 10.3 fpts and 7.6 gpts per 90 last season, but a nice chunk of that came from set piece duties which he may or may not have at Bournemouth (instead of Anthony/Christie, which I'd bet against for now). The former Manchester United man (yes really, but he didn't get any starts) will only be as useful as Bournemouth are good and if he gets those sets. Otherwise, he'll be a mediocre floor, low ceiling mid. Think John Fleck of Sheffield United of 2 years ago who sometimes did and sometimes didn't have set pieces. Bournemouth currently are odds-on favorite to get last, so Rothwell will likely not get drafted in most leagues. You're probably better off waiting to see if he gets any set pieces (in pre-season) or Bournemouth are any better than expected, but if you're in a deep league or want to be cheeky and impress your friends, there's worse options to take in the 15th round.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2
Nayef Aguerd
Position: Centre back (Defender in Fantrax)
Team: West Ham
Signed From: Rennes for £32m
Prospects: Moyes has fortified his defense signing the 26 year old Moroccan from France. Aguerd tends to be an efficient, but low volume defender. He's good in the air (82nd percentile in aerials won and 88th percentile in shots vs other top 5 league centre backs) as well as in possession and passing (84th in passing completion percentages and 90th in passes attempted). He put up 7.6 fpts and 6.4 gpts per 90 last season across 33 starts and 10 clean sheets. Similar numbers are probably realistic at West Ham and he'll likely partner Zouma in a back 4 or Zouma and Ogbonna/Dawson in a 5. The fact that he's left-footed (Ogbonna is as well, Dawson isn't) and younger than his competitors certainly plays in his favor. Perhaps he takes a bit of time to become a starter, but I imagine it happens pretty quickly. However, his numbers are only so good and West Ham have a brutal schedule to start the season(2nd worst FDR) so I'd recommend not drafting him, and instead waivering him in, when their schedule gets easier and if/when he successfully earns his XI place
Rating: ⭐️⭐️
The Goalkeepers
Nick Pope to Newcastle from Burnley: Competition with Dubravka, should win starting job⭐️⭐️⭐️
Alphonse Areola to West Ham from PSG: Competition with Fabianski, should win starting job⭐️⭐️
Gavin Bazunu to Southampton from Man City: Competition with McCarthy⭐️⭐️
Sam Johnstone to Crystal Palace from West Brom: Competition with Guaita, likely backup to start⭐️⭐️ Fraser Forster to Spurs from Southamtpon: Backup to Lloris ⭐️ Mateusz Lis to Southampton from Altay S.K.: Backup to McCarthy and Bazunu, may get loaned⭐️
Marc Roca
Position: Central Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)
Team: Leeds
Signed From: Bayern for £11m
Prospects: Roca, like Firpo before him, is a player who's career stalled a bit at a very large club, but was once a promising prospect, and is now given a second chance at Leeds. In the last season he played significant minutes, 19/20, Roca scored 5.1 fpts and 5.2 gpts per 90 for Espanyol in 35 starts in La Liga (with 2 goals and 1 assist). Positionally, Roca is a defensively-minded centre-mid. With the signing of a true 6 (CDM) in Tyler Adams, by Leeds, Roca will likely not be the furthest back mid though. More likely, when he does play he'll be Adams's pivot partner (in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2), with slightly more license to go forward. Regardless, nothing about his prior numbers, nor Leeds' expected finish, suggest he'll be a useful fantasy asset, so leave him in free agency, and don't bother drafting. If Leeds turn it on, or he proves productive in a more attacking role, you can pick him up in a couple weeks (but likely won't).
Rating: ⭐️⭐️
James Garner
Position: Central Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)
Team: Manchester United
Signed From: Returned from loan at Nottingham Forest (market value ~£12m)
Prospects: A lovely season in the Championship for promoted Forest may see Garner get a first team chance at United this season. He started 36 times, scoring 4 goals, assisting 8 times, and averaging 11 fpts and 8.4 ghost pts per 90. He played as an attacking-minded central mid often in a 352 (but behind a 10) and took most of Forest’s set pieces when on the field. That’s all good and well, but does he really have a chance to make an impact at United? Despite assurances that he'll get a chance in preseason, the real answer is probably not. The Red Devils have a crowded midfield and getting even more crowded likely with the signing of Frenkie De Jong. Bruno Fernandes, Fred, Scott McTominay, and the returned Donny van de Beek all likely have a better chance of playing than the young Garner. His best bet is another loan or sale to a lower-table Prem side. Forest would do well to get him back but if they sign United keeper Dean Henderson, they can’t have 2 loanees from the same team, and other clubs including Leicester City, Southampton, and Everton are reportedly interested. In terms of opportunity and fantasy usefulness, hope he goes to a lower table side and takes sets. If that’s the case, he’ll be worth a late round punt, otherwise an avoid altogether.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️
Armel Bella-Kotchap
Position: Centre back (Defender in Fantrax)
Team: Southampton
Signed From: Bochum for £9m
Prospects: Bella-Kotchap is a 20 year old, exciting young defender. He's ideally nowhere near his peak, and Southampton have found another gem. Having said that, he's very raw and despite getting 20 starts in the Bundesliga last season, may not be afforded as much opportunity for Southampton, who must be weary of relegation. The pairing of the future for Southampton is presumably Salisu and Bella-Kotchap, but the main issue, for now at least (besides age and inexperience) is that ABK is also a very aggressive defender. He's 91st percentile in pressures, 97th in interceptions, 89th in clearances, and 75th in tackles. These are great statistics to see from a fantasy perspective (and 6.9 ghost points per 90) but may make it hard for Southampton to pair him with Salisu, who has very similar traits. Southampton also allow too many goals and get too few clean sheets to allow Bella-Kotchap to be a legit fantasy asset. We saw Salisu have his moments last season, but ABK is currently expected to get less opportunity and is less polished so I'd leave him on waivers.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️
Calvin Ramsay
Position: Right back (Defender in Fantrax)
Team: Liverpool
Signed From: Aberdeen FC for £4m
Prospects: Ramsay is a 18 year old, promising, attacking right back who will offer infrequent backup and rest for Alexander-Arnold. He's very much one for the future, but not so much the present. As a glimpse, he had 5 assists in 22 appearances for Aberdeen last season, so Liverpool signed him for a reason. He'll be a backup but a less polished one than Tsimikas. The main impact of Ramsay's signing is not his potential but Liverpool then selling their other backup right back to Forest, Neco Williams (more on him in my next transfers article). Ramsay may flirt with a couple waiver wire adds with Trent rests or injuries later on, but for now, you can safely ignore.
Rating: ⭐️
Malcolm Ebiowei
Position: Winger (Forward in Fantrax)
Team: Crystal Palace
Signed From: Derby on a free transfer (market value ~£5m)
Prospects: Another for the future, the 18 year old winger is yet another great, young signing for Vieira's side as they build quite the foundation. Ebiowei only started 11 times last season for Derby but did score 12.9 fpts and 10.7 ghost points per 90 when he did. He took sets and had good stats but is even less proven than the other Championship players (like Olise and Eze) who made the jump, so he's more of a wait and see. He may even get loaned out this year for more opportunity. Read this article again in 2 years when perhaps Olise was transferred out for a big fee, and we might have ourselves a serious star.
Rating: ⭐️
Julio Enciso
Position: Striker (Forward in Fantrax)
Team: Brighton
Signed From: Libertad for £10m
Prospects: Brighton have a unique and fascinating scouting department, that often find promising players in smaller markets (outside of the football powerhouses). This time, they have brought in the 18 year old, Paraguayan phenom, Julio Enciso. You've already hear the hype about Undav, Brighton's other forward signing, and likely know about their other forward options in Welbeck, Maupay, and Trossard. Well, Enciso is the very dark horse candidate to steal some time up top this season. More than likely it won't happen and he might leave on loan cause he's never played in Europe and is still quite young, but he's been described as the best prospect out of Paraguay in 20 years, so never say never. A good showing in his first preseason game has me clinging to hope, but more of a fun wait and see for now.
Rating: ⭐️⭐️
Marquinhos
Position: Winger (Forward in Fantrax)
Team: Arsenal
Signed From: Sao Paulo for £3m
Prospects: Another one for the future, Arsenal hope they have found another Brazilian gem (like Martinelli) in Marquinhos, but he's very unlikely to play a significant part this season, so leave him be for a while. Arsenal do not have the same freedom nor desire to experiment like Brighton and Graham Potter.
Rating: ⭐️ FBRef and Opta (via Fantrax) data used for performance data. Transfermarkt data used for evaluation and transfer values.
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