Premier League Winter Transfer Analysis 24/25 [Part One]

The winter transfer window has begun and the new signings are trickling in before the latter half of the season. We'll share our analysis on what to expect from each of these new arrivals from a Draft EPL Fantasy perspective between now and the end of the season. Our first installment looks at players confirmed (or nearly) by their respective clubs between the window opening on January1st and January 16th.

24/25 Premier League Confirmed Transfers Analysis

Below, DraftLad will cover each Premier League transfer individually, providing his analysis of how they will be expected to perform in the rest of the 24/25 season. We use a five-star rating model to rank the new signings; use these as a guide to help get your Draft Premier League season off to a flyer!

Scroll to the bottom for special sections on Nearly There/Hypothetical Moves, Potentially Relevant Loan Returnees, and Pour One Out: Transferred Out Players.

We’ve ranked the transfers, based on a star rating, from 1 to 5:

⭐️ = Steer clear

⭐️⭐️ = Wait and see

⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Could be worth a punt

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Great prospect, worth adding

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = The Premier League signing you’ve been waiting for!

PP90 = fantasy points per 90. GPP90 = ghost points per 90. PPS = fantasy points per start, GPPS = ghost points per start (fantasy - goals, assists, clean sheets, cards). xPPS = expected fantasy points per start. WAR = wins above replacement (compared to average fantasy player)

Omar Marmoush * (Not yet Finalized)

Position: Striker (F in Fantrax)

Team: Manchester City

Signed From: Eintracht Frankfurt for ~€80m

Prospects: City have decided to press the panic button (both after a challenging & injury-riddled first half of the season and before possible economic/transfer sanctions) and their very likely first signing will be the 25yo Egyptian Marmoush. He has roughly 4 Bundesliga seasons to his name but only really broke into the scene after his move to Frankfurt (a free transfer, what a return for them) in the summer of 2023. In the 23/24 season, he had 18 returns (12G, 6A) in 27 starts & 2 sub apps (11.1 PPS, 7.1 GPPS), but it was this 24/25 season that he truly broke onto the big teams' radars. In 17 starts, Marmoush has a whopping 24 returns (15G, 9 A) in the Bundesliga, which comes out to 21.5 PPS (17.3 xPPS) and 10.6 GPPS. He's an excellent set piece taker and took a majority of Frankfurt's corners and indirect and direct free kicks which do contribute. Those ghosts are coming from predominantly 2.1 KP, 2.1 SOT, & 2.9 CoS per 90. So he's far from a 1 dimensional attacker, he can create off the dribble, pass well, and finish of course. He's played and succeeded predominantly as a striker or central attacker, but often as a part of a 2 man strike force (Hugo Ekitike his often partner) for 3rd placed Frankfurt. On occasion he's played as a left winger and 10/attacking mid. That flexibility and familiarity with playing with a striker partner should suit him in his time at City well. Given that Erling Haaland is going nowhere from the lineup, anytime soon, Marmoush will need to co-adapt. In the Julian Alvarez-esque second striker role, that City have played less of this season, will likely be his best shot. That would necessitate moving Bernardo Silva or KDB around (whether it be to the wing, further back mid, or bench). He could also play on the wing, but that feels a bit more unlikely given their plethora of wingers (Foden, Savio, Grealish, Doku, Bobb, etc.). Stylistically, Marmoush is a pacy and dribbly attacker that does very well in transition but may need to adapt to City's more patient and high-possession ways, as well as opponents' low blocks. He is certainly still an effective passer and dribbler in tighter spaces but it's not where his game truly shines. Adapting to Pep's tactics can take time and historically he's been slow to integrate new signings, but recently Savio has bucked the trend, as did Doku last season. Unfortunately, we have little precedent for a big Man City January signing, so we'll be forced to further speculate. Marmoush has had a fantastic season. City have not. Marmoush was playing for the 3rd placed team in the Bundesliga. City are sitting in 6th in the Prem on a pretty gross run of form, despite 2 recent wins from the past 3. Their attack is not their biggest problem, in fact its the least behind the defense and mid, but their numbers are still down from last season (2 xG/90 vs 2.35 last season). In Marmoush's likeliest position/spot on the pitch, City have most often played a combination of 2 from KDB, Bernardo, and Foden. Gundogan and Grealish have also gotten minutes there, but, like Foden & Bilva, can be used on the wings as well. On the left, Savio has done far better in recent times, and Pep speaks very highly of him these days. On the right, Foden has become more of a constant fixture. So there's not exactly a weak link. Bernardo may be the most outable in terms of moving to another position (RW or further back CM), but he's been a consistent Pep favorite and has the most attacking minutes, outside of Haaland. KDB was rotated more early in the season, but both he, and Pep, spoke of him finally being fully fit and healthy and thus able to play more games and more mins per start. Foden is finally back in form and starting consistently. That's all to say, Marmoush is not likely to find a nailed spot in the XI any time soon, and may have to settle for a rotational role at best. Injuries to Haaland, KDB, or Bernardo could quickly change matters and in a good (and maybe again, great) offense like City's, and with already great, stat-sheeting numbers (albeit likely to lose sets to KDB), he's absolutely still worth a big chunk of change and priority waiver, even if he is just a rotational player. Just know, you're running the risk of a Doku-esque asset, that should be great when he starts, but he might leave you frustrated with benchings for weeks on end. I would suggest spending 70-90%* of my FAAB on him in the most competitive leagues, and 50-70% in lesser-so leagues. I would also use my first waiver on him. *Given that Marmoush has crazy good attacking numbers this year and is going to the high-powered (or largely perceived as such) Man City attack, I would be foolish to not acknowledge, that you'll likely need to overspend (and go to 100% of max FAAB) in order to acquire him in the mots competitive leagues. Management style will dictate your appetite for risk. Can you stand a high PPS, low amount of starts player? What would you pay for Savio? How about Doku?

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2

Donyell Malen

Position: Winger (F in Fantrax)

Team: Aston Villa

Signed From: Dortmund for €25m

Prospects: A €25m, 25 year old to bolster Emery's attacking corps, the Dutch winger comes from Germany after a start-stop Bundesliga season, where he started 6 times and came off the bench 8. During those 14 apps (614 minutes), he had a shockingly poor 7.6 PP90 and 3.9 GPP90, with 3 goals, and was wholly inconsistent, never winning a spot over Jamie Gittens and a plethora of other wingers. In previous seasons, however, he reached far greater heights and was thought of as a fantastic prospect when Dortmund signed him from PSV in 2021 (after promising youth stints at Ajax and Arsenal). Even just last season in Germany he averaged 14.1 PP90 (13xPP90) and 8.3 GPP90, with 13 goals and 1 assist in 21 starts and 27 apps. The year prior, 15.4PP90 and 9.3GPP90 with 9 goals and 6 assists in 22 starts, 26 apps. Coming into Villa, he replaces Jaden Philogene (below) and will most likely compete for minutes on the wing with Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey. He's played predominantly on the right wing in recent times but is also capable of playing on the left, up top, or as a second striker, as Morgan Rogers has at times (whereas more recently Emery has used John McGinn, Ross Barkley, and Youri Tielemans as 10s behind Watkins and Duran). Emery on Malen coming in: "If everything goes well, tomorrow [Thursday] he joins us [training]. We are excited as well how he can help us. He is coming in, changing with Jaden Philogene. Hopefully we can get his best." So what is Malen's best? And how about his worst? As partially seen by the numbers above, Malen has had quite a few quality seasons (3 in a row in Germany from 21/22-23/24 with 20-22 starts and another breakout year prior in the Eredivisie with 27 returns in 32 apps in 20/21) where he was an effective dribbler, chance creator, and high volume shooter, generating impressive attacking numbers across the board. He never became a proper star or had a 25+ start season, but he was a valuable contributor (and a highly valuable/WAR fantasy asset). This current 24/25 season it's been a bit of a different story. At his worst, Malen has very little defensive work rate, is selfish and chooses to take bad shots instead of passing to teammates and has incredibly inconsistent production (thus making him a prime candidate for benchings or use as a super sub).

So Malen's range of outcomes at Aston Villa are pretty wide. Emery has a solid track record of getting the best out of his players, and hopefully a fresh start will be just the thing Malen needs. In terms of competition, he should have a good chance of getting starts and minutes with Leon Bailey out of form (and benched at times) since the beginning of the year, Jacob Ramsey, young, often injured, and still not fully proven, and some other short term attacking injuries to John McGinn and Ross Barkley. He'll need to adapt to the more physical Premier League and get up to speed with Emery's demands and tactics, but a path to production is there. He's the second best new-signing upside punt at the moment due to his previous point scoring and opportunity amongst little quality competition, but don't expect immediate production and do expect a lot of inconsistent fantasy returns & minutes if and when he does crack the lineup. The hope is for Morgan Rogers-esque/lite fantasy production of about 9.5 PPS and 6 PPS with 50% starts rest of season. That would put him at about the 80-90th ranked fantasy asset and thus I'd spend about 30-40% of my FAAB on him (not a first waiver but second or third and beyond) in more competitive leagues and 15-25% in less-so leagues (again with the understanding that you may need to be patient, as with most new January signings). His eventual price may be heavily dictated by whether we get more exciting transfer news/player pools additions before your waivers run (Marmoush or otherwise).

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Jaden Philogene

Position: Winger (F in Fantrax)

Team: Ipswich Town

Signed From: Aston Villa for €24m

Prospects: Aston Villa turn a quick profit & sell their 22yo youth product to a Prem squad that might have better use for his skills. In August, I wrote the following: "The 22yo winger, Philogene returns to his boyhood club Villa, only 1 year after being sold to Hull. Following a successful, breakout year in the Championship with 12 goals, 6 assists, 14.5 PPS, & 10.3 GPPS in 32 starts, Premier League clubs, including Palace, Ipswich, and Everton were clamoring for his signature. Stylistically, Philogene is a shot-heavy (3.7 shots per 90), dribble-heavy(2.8 successful p90) winger who scored well (.38 xG p90) and contributed in volume defensively. That exciting, comprehensive, stat sheet-filling resume should bode well for fantasy if he can find starts in a crowded Villa attack." Well, he never really did find those starts (had 2 out of 20, for 2 and 2.5 points v Chelsea and United) and he wasn't particularly effective off the bench either (4.3 xPP90). Still, he's young and clearly rated by other Prem clubs, and the hope is that the Tractor Boys can mow a greener pasture for Philo to succeed. Those 23/24 Champ. numbers are tempting, but Ipswich are in a relegation scrap, Philogene has yet to prove it in the Prem, he'll have competition on the wings (between Broadhead, Burns, Clarke, and Szmodics), and there just haven't been enough fantasy points to go around the attack. The glimmer of light is that Jack Clarke, of similar profile and impressive Champ. numbers last season, has shown flashes of fantasy relevance in limited minutes (10.8 xPP90 in 500 minutes). Still, he's not a starter nor rostered many places in fantasy. If you're desperate at forward, take a punt, but keep your hopes low

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Antonin Kinsky

Position: Goalkeeper (G in Fantrax)

Team: Tottenham Spurs

Signed From: Slavia Praha for €16.5m

Prospects: A promising, 21year old brought in for better depth/competition behind Vicario (than the aging Fraser Forster). He's gone straight into the lineup in the cups and Prem (albeit while Forster had a knock). Had a fantastic debut vs Liverpool but then an okay one vs Tamworth and a shaky outing vs Arsenal. Whether he keeps his spot over Forster remains to be seen (I'd lean that way for now), but when Vicario comes back in the next month, he'll probably go back to the bench. In the meantime though, Spurs give up a lot of shots, so similarly to Vicario, he's not a bad shout to stream/pickup. Just don't pay for it of course.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Diego Gomez

Position: Central midfielder (M in Fantrax)

Team: Brighton

Signed From: Inter Miami for €13m

Prospects: Gomez is yet another, very promising, young prospect from a non traditional recruitment pipeline to enter the Seagulls setup. At just 21 years old, Gomez was the Paraguayan footballer of the year (over the likes of now teammate Enciso and MLS-bound Miguel Almiron). Playing predominantly as a central midfielder, he started 15 times and had 4 sub apps for Messi's Miami team, scoring 3 goals, 3 assists, and averaging 10.4 PP90 and 8.2 GPP90. He's played a little as an attacking mid and winger in the past as well. Brighton have a crowded engine room between Baleba, Ayari, Weiffer, and O'Riley (not to mention Hinshelwood, Milner, Kadioglu, and Moder possibly) but Gomez offers a somewhat different profile. He's a proper box to box, high energy, highly physical presence. Hurzeler came right out and said it: "When I saw him running – he was running during our training sessions – I saw a beast. He is unbelievable how intense he can play football and he proved it in the MLS. Of course it is a different league, different profile. But in the end it is exactly that what we want to have – physicality. We needed this physicality. When you look also back at the game against Villa, they are one of the most physical teams in the league and we have to be able to go against them. To win our personal duels, also with physicality. I think it is a main point. That is why we are really happy that he brings us this attitude, this physicality and I am sure he will also improve as a soccer player. So I am really looking forward to working with him.” But as always with a big step up in league quality, and an already crowded, more senior XI, it'll take time for Gomez to find his minutes. As a mid 4/5 positional profile and historical scoring (in an inferior league) you don't need to bother adding before he shows something off the bench (or even breaks into the squad, which he hasn't yet). A name to keep an eye on for later this season or next.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2

Romain Esse * (Not yet Finalized)

Position: Attacking mid/Winger (M in Fantrax)

Team: Crystal Palace

Signed From: Milwall for €17m

Prospects: Esse is a 19yo promising attacking mid & winger that should suit Glasner's 3421 well but has yet to produce great fantasy numbers, even in the Championship for 15th placed Milwall. He put up 9.5 PP90 and 8 GPP90 with 5 returns in 24 starts. His 0.29 npxG + xA per 90 will need a sufficient raise for him to break into the Palace XI. Glasner's side are hot, Eze is a staple and Sarr is in good form, so the attack is fairly settled for now. Thus, Esse is likely one for the future, but unlikely to make much of an impact this season. That could change quickly if there's an attacking injury with little depth (outside of Nketiah & Kamada) but he'll need to up his output to be fantasy relevant. Wait.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Emmanuel Agbadou

Position: Centre Back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Wolves

Signed From: Stade Reims for €20m

Prospects: The 27yo Ivorian Agbadou has gone straight into the Wolves lineup the past 2 games (Cup and Prem) with a load of injuries in heir back line (Dawson, Toti, Semedo, etc.). But he only averaged around 5 ghosts and conceded 4 goals in those 2 games. He's 6'3" and started consistently in France the last 3 seasons but the ghosts(6.9 GPP90) & aerials (1.3 p90) weren't there so he doesn't look likely to be much more than a great matchup streamer. In reality, an important defensive pickup for Wolves.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Julio Soler

Position: Left back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Bournemouth

Signed From: Lanus for €8m

Prospects: Soler is a 19 year old Argentinian, coming from the Argentinian league, to likely backup Milos Kerkez at left back. He started in the Cup but is already off to the South American U-20 Championship until mid February. Unless Kerkez leaves or gets hurt Soler likely wont find many starts this season.

Rating: ⭐️1/2

Ben Godfrey

Position: Centre Back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Ipswich Town

Signed From: Atalanta for €12m

Prospects: Returning to England after a stint in Italy, was never a quality fantasy asset. Doesn't have the ghosting chops to likely succeed at a more porous Ipswich side, not to mention CB & RB competition for minutes.

Rating: ⭐️1/2

Welington

Position: Full Back (M in Fantrax)

Team: Southampton

Signed From: Sao Paulo for free (€3.5m TM value)

Prospects: Welington is a 23yo Brazilian full/wing back brought into provide full back depth on the cheap, particularly in the event that KWP leaves. He's yet to play at the highest level and even his 6.8 GPP90 in Brazil do not evoke confidence in a dire Saints defense if he were to get starts.

Rating: ⭐️1/2

Yang Min-Hyeok

Position: Winger (F in Fantrax)

Team: Spurs

Signed From: Gangwon FC for €4m

Prospects: A Korean 18 year-old signed for the future with many bodies in front of him (including many fellow youngsters)

Rating: ⭐️

Woyo Coulibaly

Position: Full Back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Leicester City

Signed From: Parma for €3m

Prospects: Coulibaly is a 25yo French full back who can play both LB and RB who will likely provide depth and Championship-level talent (next season). He plied his trade in the second divisions of France, then Italy for 5 seasons, and just this year, upon promotion, has started 12 games for 15th placed Parma in Serie A. Still, they let him go cheaply and he only averaged 3.8 GPP90 there.

Rating: ⭐️

Joachim Kayi Sanda

Position: Centre Back (M in Fantrax)

Team: Southampton

Signed From: Valenciennes FC for €5m

Prospects: A French 18 yo, signed from the Romanian league. He started for the Southampton U21s already but could still leave on loan. Regardless, playing for a relegation bound club that ships goals, avoid.

Rating: ⭐️

Matai Akinmboni

Position: Centre back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Bournemouth

Signed From: DC United for €1.5m

Prospects: An 18 year old American CB from the MLS signed for the future and/or to appease the American owner and fans

Rating: ⭐️

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Hypotheticals to Watch & Nearly There Moves

• Abdukodir Khusanov (D, to MCI) - A €40m, 20yo Uzbeki CB from 7th placed Lens in Ligue 1 who put up 8.8 GPP90, likely (medical booked) comes to the City defense where defensive ghost points go to die. Only 22 senior starts across two Ligue 1 seasons, he'll likely be a rotational starter at best, even without the injuries. One to keep an eye on for later.⭐️⭐️

• Vitor Reis (D, to MCI) - A €35m, 19yo Brazillian CB coming (medical booked) from Palmeiras where he averaged 7.3 GPP90. Only 20 senior starts in Brazil, he'll likely be behind Khusanov and the rest of the City defenders in the pecking order. More future planning for City. ⭐️1/2
  

• Strikers to Bournemouth & West Ham (F) - Both teams are in dire need of men up top after significant injuries to Evanilson, Unal, Antonio, Fullkrug, and Bowen. West Ham in particular look to be scouring the market. Whether its a loan or a buy, the Bournemouth attack is solid, and the West Ham attack could and should improve under Potter, so any semi-talented strikers could immediately become fantasy relevant. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ to ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

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Potentially Relevant Loan Returns

• Daniel Jebbison (F, BOU) - The 21yo Jebbo (TM value of €1.2m) had a poor Championship loan at Watford to start the season. But he's been recalled in the injury crisis with Evanilson and Enes Unal out for a while. He's likely not the first, or even second option for Iraola up top (he'll instead use his wingers like Dango & Semenyo), and they're likely to find another, older, more talented striker in the window, but if not, he might just get a chance to prove himself at some point. He scored a goal in the cup and I think in the short term may get a few sub appearances atleast. ⭐️⭐️

  
  

• Claudio Echeverri (M, MCI) - A 19yo attacking mid that was bought from and loaned back to Argentina's River Plate. He put up 12.2 PP90 (13.6 xPP90) and 10.2 GPP90 and filled the stat sheet with dribbles and key passes, but will likely find time quite hard to come by in a City team, particularly with Marmoush coming in, Bobb coming back, and McAtee & Gundo still around.⭐️⭐️

• Aaron Anselmino (D, CHE) - Bought this summer, loaned back to Boca Juniors. 19yo CB depth, could get loaned out again. Chalobah recall makes him even more irrelevant. ⭐️

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Pour One Out: Transferred Out Players

Phillip Billing: 2 years removed from being a solid fantasy asset, Billing has given us some iffy streams in recent times and some MID3/4 seasons across his 6 years at Bournemouth and Huddersfield in the Prem

Max Aarons: Once the EFL young player of the year (5 years ago), the now 25yo, Aarons never reached the heights following his transfer from Norwich that many expected him to.

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