Premier League Winter Transfer Analysis 24/25 [Part Two]

The winter transfer window is coming to a close and new signings have kept trickling in before the latter half of the season. We'll share our analysis on what to expect from each of these new arrivals from a Draft EPL Fantasy perspective between now and the end of the season. Our second installment looks at players confirmed (or nearly) by their respective clubs between the window opening on January 16th and January 27th.

24/25 Premier League Confirmed Transfers Analysis

Below, DraftLad will cover each Premier League transfer individually, providing his analysis of how they will be expected to perform in the rest of the 24/25 season. We use a five-star rating model to rank the new signings; use these as a guide to help get your Draft Premier League season off to a flyer!

Scroll to the bottom for special sections on Nearly There/Hypothetical Moves, Potentially Relevant Loan Returnees, and Pour One Out: Transferred Out Players.

We’ve ranked the transfers, based on a star rating, from 1 to 5:

⭐️ = Steer clear

⭐️⭐️ = Wait and see

⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Could be worth a punt

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Great prospect, worth adding

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = The Premier League signing you’ve been waiting for!

PP90 = fantasy points per 90. GPP90 = ghost points per 90. PPS = fantasy points per start, GPPS = ghost points per start (fantasy - goals, assists, clean sheets, cards). xPPS = expected fantasy points per start. WAR = wins above replacement (compared to average fantasy player)

Julio Enciso

Position: Attacking Mid/Winger (M in Fantrax)

Team: Ipswich Town

Signed From: Brighton on loan (TM value of €22m)

Prospects: Enciso is a known commodity in a new environment. Coming from the very crowded Brighton attack and midfield, to the less (but still somewhat) crowded & much talent-needing Ipswich attack, the Paraguayan is looking to revitalize his career after injuries and benchings derailed a promising start. The 21 yo broke onto the scene in his very first senior year of football, with 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 starts and 13 sub apps during the 22/23 Prem season. Injury ruled him out for most of the next season and some of this one, but it was also the Brighton manager changes & new signings that seem to do him in. Fantasy-wise, in the 22/23 season he put up 15.8 PP90 and 10.7 GPP90, bolstered by 3.6 CoS/90, 2 SOT/90 and 1.5 KP/90 (9.6 GPP90 in the last year too, across 800 minutes). That did largely came from bench apps and set pieces played their part, but still, his profile as a shot-hungry, dribbly attacker in a high possession system suited him well for fantasy. How that translates, and he adapts, to an Ipswich Town side, stuck in a relegation battle and with around 40% possession on average, remains to be seen. Enciso already came off the bench and assisted once, nearly twice, for the Tractors away to Liverpool this week. Normal starter Wes Burns got hurt, and Ipswich play Southampton at home this week, so they'll likely transition back to a 4231 which could suit Enciso's first start as a CAM or wing well. In great matchups like this one, I'd be confident that his selfish, dribbly, shot-heavy style of play should often translate to good fantasy performances, but outside of them I'd expect a high variance mid, with a low floor in a poor offense. His current teammates Omari Hutchinson, Liam Delap, and Nathan Broadhead are good examples of exactly that. Enciso should be a higher volume player, and is thus more worth rostering than said teammates, but you'll still likely end up benching him 50+% of the time, as their offense can't sustain. Getting right-footed sets (Davis is a lefty and has taken most, Kalvin Phillips otherwise) will be an important one to watch, as it could help Enciso establish more of a floor. One last callout is that while Enciso likely has the most raw talent among the Town attackers (of perhaps all but Delap) he can be too selfish and shot-heavy at times. Ipswich need that talent but they also need goals and a coherent offense. They have the bodies to bench him and sub him off, so he'll need to continue to produce if he's to continue his fantasy-friendly selfish ways. I would suggest 10-15% of your FAAB or a mid to low waiver pick for his services.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2

Albert Grønbaek

Position: Attacking Mid (M in Fantrax)

Team: Southampon

Signed From: Rennes on loan (TM value of €15m)

Prospects: Gronbaek is a 23yo Danish midfielder, who's played as an 8, 10, and even winger, most recently for Rennes in Ligue 1 and for the Danish national team. In the summer of 2024, he got his big move from Denmark to France but started infrequently for the 16th placed side and thus got loaned out to the lowly Saints. In 9 starts and 6 sub apps for 16th placed Rennes, he did manage to accrue 11.2 PP90 and 8.7 GPP90, bolstered by 2.1 KP/90, 1.4 CoA/90, and 1.4 TkW/90, so he could be a worthwhile look, stream, and potential add if he can find consistent minutes. Manager Juric said: "[Gronbaek] came as a loan and it was a good option for us to see him this six months. He was really good in Bodo/Glimt and very good in the national team. And he had problems in the Rennes, but I think he is a player with quality. He just did one training with us today and I think, like an option for me, he will be for the next game." As for his positioning, Juric said "He can play even forward or even back as he played sometimes for the national team but I think where he's expressing himself the best is the position of Mateus." Hence, he'll most likely be competing with Mateus Fernandes (who's in good form) or less likely, Joe Aribo, a bit further back, for minutes in their 3 man mid. He's only a loanee, but Saints do have a (15m) option to buy and can use all the help they can get in their relegation battle. They may be one of the worst Prem teams of all time but Mateus Fernandes (and Tyler Dibling) have at least proven an ability to fantasy points ,despite that. Unfortunately for Gronbaek, he may need to beat out said man for a starting spot, so I wouldn't be rushing to pick him up, but as soon as he starts or has a good bench app, I'd be closely monitoring for MID 4 value. M. Fernandes managers beware.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2

Michael Kayode

Position: Full back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Brentford

Signed From: Fiorentina on loan (TM value of €18m)

Prospects: Brentford have loaned out Mads Roerslev who started at right back for them 11 times this season. Another 11 RB starts belong to largely CB's (Ajer and Van den Berg). Aaron Hickey(a RB) may return at some point but has been injured for a long, long time. The same goes for Rico Henry, their long-injured LB. That leaves winger-converted Keane Lewis-Potter, who's likely to mostly play LB. All that's to say is that new loanee, Kayode has a great opportunity to come into Brentford and get a whole lot of starts. But does it matter and will he be fantasy-relevant, or will he just be another Roerslev? Unfortunately, I lean towards the latter. He could be a great signing and player one day; he's only 20, was linked with top 6 sides and Barca just last season, and Brentford have a history of making intelligent signings (they have an option to buy here) that they can sell for more in the future. He's predominantly a right-sided fullback, capable of playing at left back and on the wing too, who started 22 games for 8th placed Serie A side, Fiorentina, last season, while only 19 years old. This 24/25 season he got relegated back to the backup duties though, and only started 1 game. Fantasy wise, last season, he put up 6.8 GPP90, namely coming from 0.7 KP/90, 1.3 TkW/90, 0.9 CoS/90, and 0.7 AER/90. He looked good in the dribble and tackle, but showed little goal or assist threat yet (npxG+xAG of 0.1/90), and wasn't busy enough defensively to be a good fantasy asset. Brentford's system hasn't historically supported many successful fantasy full backs, so I'm not getting my hopes up that his statistical output suddenly improves enough for him to be more than an occasional streamer in a good matchup. But still, he could be a great player (and fantasy player, perhaps on a different team) in the future, so he should be a fun one to monitor, particularly if Brentford exercise the buy option, and we get to see him for many years.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Andres Garcia

Position: Right back (D in Fantrax)

Team: Aston Villa

Signed From: Levante for €7m

Prospects: Garcia is a 21yo right back who excelled offensively for Levante in the 2nd division of Spanish football (3 goals, 3 assists in 22 starts in 24/25 season). He's much needed RB depth for Emery's defensively-depleted Villans, but will likely only be a backup to Matty Cash in the short to medium term, as he's yet to play at the highest level. If Cash does get hurt (again) and/or Garcia gets his chance, he may be a worthwhile stream in good matchups as a pacy, dribbly full back, capable of playing winger. Fellow Spaniard Emery said: "He was progressing so quick, I knew him before. We decided to sign him because we were thinking it was a good opportunity... Hopefully, we can progress quick in his adaptation & how he can understand everything in PL about level we have."

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

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Decently Likely Hypotheticals to Watch

• Attacker to Arsenal (M/F) - Signs point to Arsenal being the likeliest of the big 6 buying another attacker before the end of the window (yes, I'm biased but check social media). How talented & how ready said signing is to play in the Premier League and potentially start at right wing for Arsenal (in Saka's absence) remains to be seen, but its a potent offense. If you have waiver priority #1 or a lot of FAAB, this is likely your best upside bet remaining. ⭐️⭐️⭐️ to ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

  
  

• Evan Ferguson (F, to WHU? BOU?) - Ferguson is a highly touted Irish, 20 yo striker that we've all seen falter in Prem fantasy in recent times. He's been on and off hurt and benched more often than not between De Zerbi's and Hurzeler's Brighton XI's. Even when he did start, he was fairly return dependent, so here's hoping he lands in a competent offense where he can get a lot of minutes and some returns. Whether Potter's West Ham is that team remains to be seen but Lopetegui out and Bowen back should help, and perhaps he could land somewhere better (offensively) like Bournemouth or Spurs ⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2
  

• El Hadji Malick Diouf (D, to CRY/BHA/LIV/CHE): Palace have bid, but Slavia Praha rejected and look be to trying to create a bidding war with other rumoured Premier League interest. The 20yo, Senegalese left (wing) back has a promising fantasy profile, with great attacking numbers (1.9 KP/90, 0.22 xA/90, 0.14 xG/90), and 11.1 GPP90 (albeit for the first placed team in the Czech league, and taking a minority of set pieces). He'll need to adapt to a much tougher league but should be a good fit in Palace's 343 and could replace/compete with the more defensive Mitchell (who's struggled at times this year). ⭐️⭐️⭐️1/2

  
  

• Patrick Dorgu (D, to MUN) - Looking more and more likely to be a classic United tax purchase for the thrifty INEOS. The Red Devils have gone back and forth with Lecce for his transfer and appear to be closing in. He's a 20yo Danish wing back/winger that should suit Amorin's 3421 system quite well, and immediately becomes their only true, fit, attacking LWB (not including Malacia & the right-footed Dalot). However, his fantasy scoring doesn't yet look particularly exciting. He's gone between winger, wing back, and fullback for 17th placed Lecce and put up 7 GPP90. That's right inline with Dalot's 7.1 GPPS (for an arguably better team, yet in a better league). But he's young, rapidly rising in the footy world, and should get significant minutes at wing back for a team that could be good at some point. ⭐️⭐️⭐️

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Pour One Out: Transferred Out Players

• Emi Buendia: Ah those Norwich highs in the 20/21 season. Finally back from long-term injury, he's been getting consistent sub appearence for Emery's depleted Villa team but goes to a Leverkeusen team

• Ben Brereton Diaz, Maxwel Cornet, Diego Carlos, Mads Roerslev, Hamza Choudhury, Renato Veiga, Antony, Kyle Walker: No reminiscing needed, I'm afraid, and in some cases, good riddance

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