Is playing European football a poisoned chalice for fantasy EPL assets? Ryan & Robbie take a deep dive into the topic, analyzing recent experiences from EPL teams that have gone in and out of Europe. They use these data points to offer guidance on how European football or the lack there of will impact the fantasy value of relevant players. Take this into account when planning for your draft! Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 Draft Kit.
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The Effects of Playing in Europe on Fantasy EPL Assets
Playing European football is the goal for many clubs. But does it take a toll on a club's league form and, as a result, the prospects of key fantasy assets? Do the extra games and travel result in more injuries and rotation? Should you steer clear of teams that now have European commitments and target ones that don't? Everything will be illuminated.
To tackle this tricky subject, we looked as far back as the 15/16 season to compare how teams and players performed in seasons before and after European Competition (EC). To do this, we narrowed the search down to teams who have both competed in EC but also missed out on EC, which included the teams below.
We'll analyse how these teams performed in terms of their Premier League table position, goal difference, player availability, and number of games started for their preferred XI. This season, two teams in particular will be affected by a change in their European commitments: Arsenal and Leicester. We will delve into how their players were affected in the past and how to project their performance in the upcoming season.
The Data
EPL Position
The first graph below looks at PL performance simply by comparing a team's position in the league table from one season with EC football to the season directly after without EC football (and vice versa). In the graph, the * denotes the season without EC.
Our data shows that teams achieved better results in the league without having to play European football. The sample below indicates an average increase of 1.5 positions in the EPL table without EC. For example, in 2015/16, Liverpool made it all the way to the Europa League Final. In the PL, Liverpool finished 8th and thus failed to qualify for Europe. Without EC in 16/17, Liverpool managed to finish in 4th, thereby boosting its league rank by 4 places.
Goal Difference
Unsurprisingly, this also translated to better goal difference for teams without EC, as denoted in the graph below. On average, these teams saw an increase of 9.5 in goal difference in the league in campaigns devoid of European football.
Availability of Players
We've shown the affect of EC on results but how does the onset of extra fixtures in Europe impact these teams' players and their availability? This next graph looks at the % change in availability of the most used XI as an average for each team. This was simply calculated as the number of games that a player didn't start or wasn't on the bench (ignoring suspensions). We discovered that the average availability of a team's most used XI was 85% with EC versus 90% without EC - a 5% increase. In short, a team's best XI is able to play more games (although the difference is slight) in the EPL without the extra EC workload.
We continue this vein of analysis below with a graph that looks at the change in the number of starts of the most used XI as an average for each team. Results indicate an average number of starts of a team's most used XI in EC is 27.5 & for non EC is 30, showing an increase of 2.5 starts for teams without European football.
Case Studies: Arsenal & Leicester City
Arsenal
We now delve deeper into specific examples, using the recent experiences of Arsenal & Leicester City. This graph below compares Arsenal's 2020/2021 EPL form (in which they reached the semi-final of the Europa League) & 2021/2022 without EC. The values above the line show an improvement/increase in the season without EC, which have fantasy implications. This past season without the Europa League, Arsenal's primary assets saw an average increase of 1.2 fantasy points per 90 and 1.9 Games Started per player.
Leicester
These graphs, in a similar fashion to those above, outline Leicester's 2019/2020 season with no EC & their 2020/2021 campaign with the European Conference League. However, for these graphs, values below the line show an improvement/increase in the season without EC. In terms of PP90, this was a mixed bag, with a few players slightly increasing their PP90. But most fantasy relevant assets decreased their Games Started. On average, assets experienced an increase of 1.5 PP90 and 1.7 GS in the season without EC.
Leicester also competed in the Europa League in 2021/2022 but then dropped down to the European Conference League and reached the semi-final of that competition. When comparing 2019/2020 to 2021/2022, we see a more significant trend of PP90 and Games Started decreasing during the 2021/2022 season with EC. On average, assets see an increase of 2.1 PP90 and 4.6 GS in the season without EC. Now we do get exceptions to the rule, where the likes of Maddison and Tielemans have kept improving their PP90 despite the additional EC games, but their numbers of starts have decreased.
Key Takeaways
Teams without European football tend to improve their EPL performances, boosting their league table status, on average, by 1.5 positions (e.g., going from 11th with EC to 10th or 9th without it).
Without the added rigors of EC, a team's primary assets are available more often - they average 2.5 more starts.
Arsenal & Leicester's recent experiences in and out of Europe largely bear this all out; their league positions, player availability & performances were all better in the seasons without EC.
Players Impacted (Ones to Target/Avoid in the Draft)
We have shown that, by and large, teams simply play better when they can solely focus on the league without the extra headaches brought about by European football. But this primarily affects two teams - you guessed it, Arsenal & Leicester - as they are the only squads whose European prospects have completely changed from last season to this season (Arsenal now back in Europe, Leicester out). Looking at these teams, they have a strong XI but lack quality in depth, which really amplifies how well their key assets can perform when they don't need to rotate so much.
While it would be too simplistic and reactionary to just target teams without EC and avoid teams that do have to play EC this term, this analysis does show a slight bump in fantasy prospects for key assets in teams without EC. With Arsenal playing in the Europa League next season they will look to invest heavily to build quality depth, with the signings of Viera and Jesus already showing we may need to project their midfield/forward assets down in terms of number of starts. So, if you're choosing between, say, James Maddison (no EC) and Bukayo Saka (EC), the former becomes more attractive. If you agree with this conclusion, you could also focus on other Leicester assets such as Jamie Vardy, Harvey Barnes, & Youri Tielemans (If he stays at Leicester) while staying away from Arsenal studs like Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, etc.
It's also worth noting that not all European competitions & managers are equal. Some managers like Brendan Rogers will play many of their regulars even in European Conference League matches. Others will rotate depending on the stage of the competition & level of opposition. In the Champions League, of course, where there really is no easy match and every point is crucial, all managers will be forced to start their studs. Meanwhile, in the early stages of the Europa League or the Conference League, where the stakes are usually lower and the opponents of lesser quality, you can likely get away with playing more of your B team. It's a good opportunity for your bench/youth players to get some valuable minutes.
This is important to take into account when comparing different fantasy assets. Son & Kane, for example, barely played any European football last season as they were ousted from the European Conference League early. This season, however, they will have to play every CL group match and then perhaps the latter stages of the Europa League. But in the case of Manchester United & Arsenal, their studs, such as Bruno or Saka, will likely not see much action in the early stages of the competition. Both squads are trying to build depth this summer and should be able to field weakened sides early on, thus not tiring out their starters in the preliminary stages of the tournament. So European football is many things to many teams. As you can see, there's a lot to consider when it comes to its impact. Choose wisely!
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