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The Underlying Numbers: Four Players Worth a Deeper Look in Fantrax EPL

It's hard to make too many assumptions after only four gameweeks of the 2023/24 Premier League season; the sample size is too small, especially when it comes to relatively rare events like goals, assists, and clean sheets. In order to better understand what is going on, we have to look at the underlying numbers: events that don't get your players points in Fantrax Default Scoring, but are a better predictor of how they will fare throughout the rest of the season.

The data used in this article is all taken from Opta, whether that's via Fantrax, FBRef, RotoWire, or other sources. All mentions of fantasy production refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.

Four Players Worth a Deeper Look in Fantrax EPL

In this article, we take a look at four players whose fantasy output isn't necessarily telling the whole story. Four games' worth of data remains a very small sample size, even when looking at more frequent events, but in certain cases, we can learn a lot from looking at the numbers. The players covered are:

  1. Enzo Fernandez - will he keep playing in an advanced role, and will that translate into goals and assists?

  2. Andreas Pereira - can he continue to rely on set pieces for his fantasy output?

  3. Alexis Mac Allister - what is his role? Will his versatility be his downfall?

  4. James Ward-Prowse - he's still good at set pieces, but has anything else changed?

Enzo Fernandez

El Musico, a nickname referencing his ability to conduct play like an orchestra, is a rare specimen: a big-money Chelsea signing who might be worth the cost. With a remarkable passing range and an excellent work rate off the ball, the Argentinian regularly looks like The Blues’ best player and has started every Premier League game since his arrival.

As a deep-lying midfielder, his talents weren’t rewarded in Fantrax Default Scoring last season, averaging 6.4 points per start (PPS) in his 18 matches. Despite this underwhelming fantasy output, Enzo was drafted in 100% of the divisions of the ‘big three’ (IGL, Community League, Discord Super League) #DraftPL leagues this season, with an average draft pick (ADP) of 97, higher than his rank of 127 in The Draft Society’s preseason Consensus Rankings.

This season, Enzo has been playing much farther forward: his touches per 90 in the attacking third have more than doubled, from 16.3 last season to 37.8. This increased attacking involvement hasn’t resulted in much of an uptick in fantasy production, however; Enzo has averaged 7.2 PPS in his four games, with more than 75% of his FPts coming from key passes (22 out of 29). Our analysts have been impressed, though, with Enzo moving up 57 places to 70 in the latest Consensus Rankings.

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