It's hard to make too many assumptions after only four gameweeks of the 2023/24 Premier League season; the sample size is too small, especially when it comes to relatively rare events like goals, assists, and clean sheets. In order to better understand what is going on, we have to look at the underlying numbers: events that don't get your players points in Fantrax Default Scoring, but are a better predictor of how they will fare throughout the rest of the season.

The data used in this article is all taken from Opta, whether that's via Fantrax, FBRef, RotoWire, or other sources. All mentions of fantasy production refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
Four Players Worth a Deeper Look in Fantrax EPL
In this article, we take a look at four players whose fantasy output isn't necessarily telling the whole story. Four games' worth of data remains a very small sample size, even when looking at more frequent events, but in certain cases, we can learn a lot from looking at the numbers. The players covered are:
Enzo Fernandez - will he keep playing in an advanced role, and will that translate into goals and assists?
Andreas Pereira - can he continue to rely on set pieces for his fantasy output?
Alexis Mac Allister - what is his role? Will his versatility be his downfall?
James Ward-Prowse - he's still good at set pieces, but has anything else changed?
Enzo Fernandez
El Musico, a nickname referencing his ability to conduct play like an orchestra, is a rare specimen: a big-money Chelsea signing who might be worth the cost. With a remarkable passing range and an excellent work rate off the ball, the Argentinian regularly looks like The Blues’ best player and has started every Premier League game since his arrival.
As a deep-lying midfielder, his talents weren’t rewarded in Fantrax Default Scoring last season, averaging 6.4 points per start (PPS) in his 18 matches. Despite this underwhelming fantasy output, Enzo was drafted in 100% of the divisions of the ‘big three’ (IGL, Community League, Discord Super League) #DraftPL leagues this season, with an average draft pick (ADP) of 97, higher than his rank of 127 in The Draft Society’s preseason Consensus Rankings.
This season, Enzo has been playing much farther forward: his touches per 90 in the attacking third have more than doubled, from 16.3 last season to 37.8. This increased attacking involvement hasn’t resulted in much of an uptick in fantasy production, however; Enzo has averaged 7.2 PPS in his four games, with more than 75% of his FPts coming from key passes (22 out of 29). Our analysts have been impressed, though, with Enzo moving up 57 places to 70 in the latest Consensus Rankings.
This optimism is understandable when you look at his underlying numbers. Firstly, his drastically improved xG (0.36, up from 0.05) and xA (0.26, up from 0.14) per 90 numbers give him a startling xPP90 of 12.9; no one who has started more than one game has a worse xPP90 delta (the difference between their xPP90 and PP90) of -5.7 (teammate Jackson is next worse at -5.2). Over half of Enzo’s xG has come from the penalty he took (and missed) against West Ham, but these numbers are backed up by sharp improvements in shots, touches in the box, and shots in the box. While taking a penalty has boosted Enzo’s xG, taking corners and free-kicks has boosted his xAG, with 3 of his 11 key passes coming from dead-ball situations (although nearly half of his corners have gone short).
There are a lot of unknowns here. Enzo could lose all of his set-piece duties; Mudryk seems to have priority of right-sided corners when he’s on the pitch, and James also takes corners from the right (although Enzo took those in GW1 when Reece was playing). Losing penalties is possible in the short-term, and more likely in the long-term when Christopher Nkunku returns.
The other issue is whether he will continue to play an attacking role. In the short-term, new signing Cole Palmer could step into a 10 role, pushing Enzo back into the double pivot alongside Moises Caicedo, where the Argentinian can more easily dictate play. When Carney Chukwuemeka and Nkunku return from injury, they could also occupy a central attacking midfield role.
So what’s the verdict? For now, with so much upside, he’s a buy-low candidate when looking at this current Fantrax production. Alternatively, you might be able to use his rise in our Consensus Rankings to trade him out for a player with fewer question marks hanging over them. Whatever the decision, the situation is very fluid; with a new manager, and a lot of new players, a lot can change from one game to another. If you do bring him in, be sure to monitor his role and set piece duties. In an ideal world, trade him in now, reap the rewards, and sell high before Nkunku returns. Easy, right?
Andreas Pereira
Having been a surprisingly good Fantrax asset last season, Andreas Pereira was drafted in the ‘big 3’ leagues at an ADP of 61 and was ranked 55th in our preseason Consensus Rankings. So far he has disappointed, sitting in 128th for total FPts with only 22.5 to his name.
One reason for this is playing time, with 31 minutes off the bench against Everton, followed by 67, 62, and 90 minutes in the subsequent matches. This can be explained by a cautious approach to his recovery from an ankle injury from the Fulham staff. The other issue is fixture difficulty; Fulham have played last year’s two best teams (Man City and Arsenal), along with Brentford (9th last year) and Everton, which was the game Andreas didn’t start.
The most important factor when it comes to Andreas, however, is set pieces. This is not a man who is creative in open play; for attacking midfielders, he ranks in the 18th percentile for shot-creating actions per 90 in open play across Europe’s Big 5 Leagues. Almost half (46%) of his FPts came from set pieces in 2022/23, which was more than anyone else, including notorious set-piece merchants James Ward-Prowse (42%, more on him later) and Kieran Trippier (41%).
Whether you consider Pereira a buy-low candidate probably depends on how big a loss you think Mitrovic is, particularly when it comes to his aerial presence in dead-ball situations. Raul Jimenez may not seem like the ideal replacement on that front given his recovery from a severe skull fracture, but he has not shied away from the challenge, contesting the third most aerial duels so far this season (26), after Luton’s Carlton Morris (43) and Sheffield Utd’s William Osula (28).
Given Fulham’s difficult start to the season, and the fact Andreas is still commanding the lion’s share of set pieces, we’re inclined to believe his production will more closely resemble what he was doing last year than what he has shown so far in 2023/24.
Alexis Mac Allister
The only one of Liverpool’s four midfield recruits with prior Premier League experience, Mac Allister had a ‘big 3’ ADP of 44 (just ahead of Alvarez and Sterling). Our TDS analysts were a little lower on him in preseason, ranking him 53rd, with that now falling to 76th in the latest update of the consensus rankings.
It hasn’t been the best start for the former Brighton man, with scores of 5, -3 (where he was wrongly awarded a red card), 6.5, and 5. At 6.0, his xPP90 -- which excludes negative points from red cards and own goals -- is less than half of his 2022/23 xPP90 of 12.2.
What’s changed? Well, 40% of his xG came from penalties last season, and he’s almost certainly not getting those off Salah. He also took 8 free-kick shots, one of which was a lovely goal against Leicester, and he’s probably not getting many of those either. But this was all covered in our Liverpool preview, so you knew that already.
Out of the 132 players who have played 250+ minutes this season and 500+ last season, only teammate Andrew Robertson (-11.2) and Kieran Trippier (-10.7) have had a greater decline in touches in the final third per 90 (-9.7); only Arsenal duo Martin Odegaard (-1.4) and Gabriel Martinelli (-1.1) have seen a sharper decline in chances created from open play per 90 (-1.0); and no one has seen a bigger drop off both in shots and shots in the box per 90 (-2.7, -1.1).
Now, some context. Alexis was the deepest-lying midfielder both against Chelsea and Bournemouth (nominally lining up alongside Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai). Against Newcastle, Wataru Endo was the 6, which freed up Mac Allister to get forward more. Except it didn’t, because Virgil van Dijk got sent off in the 28th minute. Against Aston Villa, Alexis was once again back as the deepest-lying midfielder, making more touches in the defensive third than Curtis Jones or Szoboszlai.
So have we not seen the real Alexis Mac Allister yet? In order for him to match his preseason expectations, two things need to happen. Firstly, Jurgen Klopp can't revert to the 4-3-3 formation. Only Nottingham Forest (6.74) and Wolves (7.18) had worse overall midfielder PP90s than Liverpool (7.22) last season, and we know from the likes of Wijnaldum, Keita, and Thiago that Liverpool’s 4-3-3 is a black hole for midfield Fantrax production.
Secondly, Alexis has to play as one of the two advanced central midfielders alongside Szoboszlai. This would mean one of Ryan Gravenberch, Endo, Thiago or Jones needs to thrive in the 6 role so that Klopp isn’t tempted to stick Alexis there. Given Liverpool looked so good against Aston Villa, where Trent was less inverting into midfield and more swapping positions with Matip, don't be surprised if Klopp persists with this set-up for now. Keeping Alexander-Arnold deep makes him less vulnerable on the turn (he has already been exposed by Semenyo this season), while still allowing him to break the lines with his incredible passing ability.

Liverpool's pass map from the game against Aston Villa. Taken from @ChicagoDmitry's McLachApp.
We remain confident that Alexis will get a decent amount of game time playing in an advanced role; Klopp needs goals from his midfielders and Mac Allister can provide on that front. For those of you who have been frustrated by his output so far, don’t give up on him just yet. But if Liverpool look like they’re abandoning the 3-box-3 formation (or whatever we're calling it now), trade out Alexis while he still has name value.
James Ward-Prowse
Having not been able to rescue his boyhood club from relegation last season, JWP took the plunge and joined Europa Conference League Champions West Ham, and has quickly settled into life at the London Stadium. While not a huge name like Lukaku or Ronaldo in seasons past, JWP was seen as the premium post-draft waiver target; he went for 100% of FAB or more in most leagues and has earned a ranking of 21 in our latest Consensus Ranks. His early performances will have managers feeling like they have been vindicated, but what do the underlying numbers say?
At Southampton, JWP enjoyed the big man status: captain, leader, nearly a complete monopoly on set pieces -- he took 94% of Saints' total last season, including penalties. Last year, fantasy points were hard to come by outside of this, giving him a whopping 42% reliance on set pieces for FPts, as previously mentioned. Has JWP been enjoying the same set-piece control at West Ham? The early signs are very positive: he's stepped up and taken over Bowen's lefty in-swinging corners and everything else for that matter, increasing his share of his team's set pieces to 98% in his three starts.
We don't know as of yet whether he will take penalties, with Benrahma favoured at the end of last season and Paqueta stepping up against Chelsea (where both Benrahma and JWP weren't on the pitch. Clearly, three games is a tiny sample size, but Ward-Prowse has been less reliant on set pieces for his points than last season at 34%. This has largely come down to clocking attacking returns in every match he has played, totalling 1 goal and 3 assists.
This has seen him produce at a rate of 16.4 PP90 so far, a significant increase on the 11-12 PP90 we have seen consistently from him over the last four seasons. While he may have better players to aim at in his new team, his creativity has remained remarkably similar to last season. His xA/90 is down slightly at 0.14 compared to 0.17 in 22/23; his SCA/90 (shot-creating actions) is at 3.1 compared to 3.4; yet he has delivered 1.0 assists/90 compared to 0.11 last season, which is clearly unsustainable.
He has, however, improved his xG/90 to 0.28 from 0.15. It's still too early to say whether this is something that we'll see continue given the different tactics and personnel used in the midfield by Moyes so far, but it's certainly promising. A quick glance at his shots/90 (1.38 vs 1.07), shots in the box/90 (0.69 vs 0.27) and touches in the box/90 (1.73 vs 0.77) compared to last season show a positive trend towards a more advanced role in the midfield than he enjoyed at Southampton, and potentially more avenues to points than just set pieces.
While JWP may have licence to get forward with someone like Edson Alvarez there to sit deep, it's worth noting that West Ham are third bottom for possession this season, with 37% (away to Bournemouth), 22% (away to Brighton), 24% (at home to Chelsea), and 61% (away to Luton) of the ball in their four matches. If Moyes is to persist with a low block, counter-attacking approach (it's worked so far!), Ward-Prowse may see even less of the ball than he did at Southampton. In addition, we're yet to see what West Ham look like with Mohammed Kudus in the side; his inclusion could limit Ward-Prowse's attacking involvement.
While you wouldn't expect this 16.4 PP90 to continue, especially given it has come from 10.4 xPP90, the signs are certainly positive that he could replicate what he did at Southampton (11.3 xPP90). So what does this mean if you roster JWP? If you can sell high at his current production rate, go for it; it won't be sustainable over the course of the season. If you can't get that sort of value for him, just keep him and enjoy your completely nailed-on, week-in-week-out, set-and-forget fantasy stud we've all come to adore.
For the latest player valuations, check out our Consensus Ranks page!
For all the latest from The Draft Society, follow @Draft_Society on Twitter!
For more in-depth and exclusive resources, become a member of The Inner Circle.

Comentarios