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Undervalued 23/24 Draft Premier League Players

The hype is real - or is it? A lot of factors go into how we feel about players in the run up to the Fantasy EPL draft. How did they finish this season? Did they join a better team or system over the summer? Were they injured? Will they benefit from another season in a new league? All of these things are considered when analyzing and predicting value for the upcoming draft. We have you covered with players whose value is inflated and should be avoided that early, as well as some undervalued assets that could outperform their average draft positions. For more incredible analysis and draft help check out our 23/24 Draft Kit and our Pricing Plans.

These players may be overlooked and provide great value in your draft...

Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101.


Undervalued Draft Premier League Players

Every draft has its players that have too much hype and are being taken way too early. It is crucial to recognize who they are, try to avoid them, and opt for value instead. These players are all coming off decent seasons but it is a deceptive facade. They'll be good but not that good, and they'll go earlier in the draft than they should. Chelsea can't get any worse under Pochettino and their horrific season will force many managers to avoid their assets, a lottery ticket awaits in the form of Darwin Nunez, the form of Heung-min Son can't get any worse, and some are sleeping on Andreas Pereira due to his injury.


Chelsea Assets

There's nowhere to go but up surely applies to the West London club and its fantasy assets this season. After a campaign in which the owner was sanctioned and forced to sell, an American took over and spent over a half billion, the manager was sacked and replaced by a caretaker in the form of club legend Frank Lampard, and the team finished 12th behind Crystal Palace. The attack was utterly toothless, scoring only 38 goals the entire season (15th most in the EPL). Unsurprisingly there were no Chelsea fantasy assets in the top 50 for total FPts (Kai Havertz came closest in 68th place), and many managers will be reticent to punt on them again. Raheem Sterling was taken in most drafts in the late 1st/early 2nd round but finished 100th in scoring. That leaves a mark. As a result, most Chelsea players (with exciting transfer Christopher Nkunku a potential exception) will be undervalued coming into the draft.


Former Spurs manager Mauricio Pochettino will look to right the ship. If his past is prologue, he should get a tune out of this side, although it may take some time. And without the distraction of Europe, he'll be able to focus on the EPL. Both the attack and defense should benefit. The aforementioned Raheem Sterling, the fullbacks (Chilwell & James), and someone like Conor Gallagher in the midfield, all of which have proven to be solid fantasy scorers in the past and should be available later than usual. Mudryk, Jackson, Madueke, and others may also represent value but are riskier propositions.


Darwin Nunez | Liverpool | Forward

One would be hard pressed to find a bigger enigma coming into the season than Darwin Nunez. The "agent of chaos" is dividing opinion in the fantasy community, even within The Draft Society family. Yes, he has a lot of potential drawbacks, the most concerning being that he may not have a guaranteed starting role in the team. Liverpool is blessed with 5 talented attackers - Nunez, Diaz, Jota, Gakpo, Salah - competing for just 3 spots in the starting XI. So two of them will see the bench, and many analysts think the lanky Uruguayan will be one of them. This may indeed be the case. The starting 3 at the end of the season (when the Merseysiders went on an incredible run that almost culminated in Champions League qualification) was Diaz, Gakpo, & Salah.


However, there is a compelling case to be made for Nunez to regain his spot as the focal point of the attack and provide excellent value to managers who like to gamble. He was suffering last season from a reportedly nagging foot injury - that may explain some of the instances in which he was left out. Like most imports, he also struggled to adjust to a new league and country; he should be more acclimated coming into the 23/24 season. Klopp also heavily invested in him - to the tune of 85m pounds - and is unlikely to have given up already. Nunez has everything and showed at Benfica that he can capably lead the line. A liberated Trent Alexander Arnold in midfield also needs a target for his sumptuous crosses.


While he was often wasteful in front of goal, he still finished with12 G/A (goals + assists); 0.64 Goal involvement per 90; 0.44 Non-Penalty xG per 90; and 8.28 npxG output. In short, he frequently put himself in dangerous positions. If he starts putting these myriad chances away, he'll explode. And fantasy-wise, he still boasted over 11 points per start. If he nails down a role in this revitalized Liverpool attack (my contention is that he will get a high number of starts), he could be a top 15 asset, and one in which you may be able to get in the 4th round of your draft. And he has been scoring for fun in the preseason, which bodes well for his prospects this season. Again, it's a big risk, but the reward could potentially win you your league.


Estimated Draft Pick: Mid 3rd/Early 4th Round

Draft Pick Value: 2nd Round (if he is a starter)


Heung-min Son | Tottenham Hotspur | Forward

Similar to Chelsea, there is a case to be made that many Spurs assets (not Harry Kane, of course, or Pedro Porro) will be undervalued in the draft. But let's focus on notorious nice guy, Heung-min Son, who is coming off a bad season by his own standards. Despite being a top 3 draft pick in most leagues, he only mustered 9.7 PPS this past season - quite the precipitous drop from the lofty heights he hit in 21/22 when he delivered a whopping 16.6 PPS and was top in total fantasy points. No other elite asset experienced such a tremendous fall from grace; that provides a serious value opportunity.


So what happened last campaign and what's going to be different this time around? Let's start with the bad news. It's still Spurs - who are never far from crisis - and there is uncertainty abound (new manager, unknown status of Kane, potential signings, etc). Son also has to report for duty at the Asian Cup in January and will miss a few games. He may also be off set pieces - a potential source of fantasy points - especially as James Maddison has arrived in North London this summer.


Now for the good news. Son recently admitted to harboring a persistent injury last season, which he claims hampered his season. If this is to be believed and he has since recovered, that should boost his prospects of replicating his form prior to last campaign. New manager Postecoglu plays very attacking football, which should suit the Korean, and there's still a chance that he is put on some set pieces. No European football is also a bonus. And if his long time partner Harry Kane leaves, Sonny would become the talisman, which may not dent his points tally that much. He would even have the added benefit of taking penalties. In short, he has already shown he can be a top fantasy scorer - so the risk of a punt in the 2nd round is fairly minimal and the reward likely supersedes it.


Estimated Draft Pick: Late 1st - mid 2nd Round

Draft Pick Value: Top 10


Andreas Pereira | Fulham | Midfielder

The hopes for the Portuguese journeyman were not very high coming into last season. But he largely proved the doubters wrong and helped propel Fulham from relegation favorites to a top 10 finish. Fantasy-wise, he likely went undrafted - or dropped soon after - in most leagues and ended up delivering incredible production/value before succumbing to injury late in the season. He bagged 10 G/A and posted an impressive 9 points per start.


It wasn't all rainbows and puppy dogs, though. He has his shortcomings. He has the unique ability to post scores below 2 points. And he only mustered 6.2 gPPS, which is quite odd for a creative midfielder with a monopoly on set pieces. These travails and his injury will force some to forget how dangerous he was for much of the campaign. With an in form Mitrovic to feed, he can win you some gameweeks. And 9+ PPS from someone after the 5th round is nothing to shake a stick at. It is important to note that all this goes out the window if Fulham sign someone like James Ward Prowse, who would take over all of Andreas' set pieces, on which he relies for roughly half of his points. While Mitrovic likely leaving puts a damper on Pereira's assist/key pass potential, Jimenez may pick up some of the slack.


Estimated Draft Pick: Round 6

Draft Pick Value: Round 4/5


Honorable Mention

  • Casemiro: His frequent red cards and role as a CDM mask his value/upside. While he is technically a CDM, he gets in dangerous areas and often scores like an attacking mid. His nearly double digit PPS is testament to that. He is value after the 5th round when potent midfielders start to become scarce.

  • Rodri: The Spaniard is in a similar boat to Casemiro albeit more steady/less explosive. But his PPS of 8.5 can do a job for your team, especially if you need cover for other rotated Man City assets on the roster.

  • Bournemouth Assets: New manager Andoni Iraola is going to implement a fast-paced attacking system that results in a fair amount of whipped crosses and hopefully fantasy points. Other than Tavernier & Hamed Traore, most Cherry assets will be overlooked. Diamonds will emerge from the rough - keep an eye on folks like Kluivert, Brooks, Dango, and the fullbacks.

  • Phil Foden: A victim of random Pep roulette - which occurs within the season but also between seasons - the talented youngster seemed to have fallen out of favor. But he still got 22 starts (just 2 fewer than the previous campaign), bagged 16 G/A (more than last season), and finished as the 3rd highest fantasy scorer for Man City (after Haaland & KDB). And with KDB's injury woes and other midfield departures (e.g., Gundogan), he should be locked in to start at the least the first few games. While of course he'll be annoying to roster, he is value come the middle of the 2nd round.

 
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