When to Drop an Injured Player from your Fantrax EPL Roster

Injuries to players on your draft rosters are pretty much a foregone conclusion at some stage of the Premier League season. Making an informed decision about whether to keep them on your team until they return to fitness or replace them with a player who can score you points in the interim is a crucial factor to the success of your fantasy team. We’ll walk you through the different variables you should consider to arrive at the best decision. Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for more insights and tips to make the most of your draft and fantasy season. Pricing plans available here.

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When is it Time to Drop an Injured Player from your Roster?

Injuries are finicky and recovery timeframes are difficult to correctly predict, even for the experts. Players often try to rush back and can suffer setbacks that keep them out even longer than initially expected. Some reported injuries end up being managerial mind games (staring daggers at you, Steve Cooper & Roberto De Zerbi), and some players manage miraculous recoveries. So, when do you drop an injured player and when do you stick to your guns?

Unless the injured player is confirmed to be out for the remainder of the season, there isn’t really a straightforward answer to that question. There’s also no way to guarantee you’ve made the correct decision, either, so you should take the advice in this article with a grain of salt. That said, there are numerous aspects to consider that can make you at least feel a bit more justified in the decision you ultimately arrive at.

Reported Absence

The most obvious information to take into account is the severity of the injury to your player and what’s being reported in terms of a timescale for their return to play. Be sure you’re getting your information from a reputable source (we recommend Premier Injuries). Naturally, the longer your player is reported to be out, the more inclined you should be to drop them.

But there’s a lot of gray area here. Think about the number of gameweeks that will be remaining at the end of the reported injury time frame. A 4-6 week injury in October isn’t as difficult to hold a player through as one in March, particularly if you’re in a league with end-of-season playoffs.

Injury History

Next, consider whether your player is particularly injury-prone and/or susceptible to setbacks. Past injuries are not necessarily a definite indicator that your player will find it difficult to recover from their current one, but it can give you a sense of whether you may be better off searching for a player who is more likely to stay on the pitch. Transfermarkt player profiles include detailed info about the type and duration of injury (under the "Stats" dropdown), as well as the number of games they missed.

Team Dynamics

One of the trickier elements to assess is how your player’s absence affects the balance of the team. Will your player make an immediate return to the starting lineup when they are fit, or will they be eased back in? Are there other competitions where they could be brought back up to speed instead of in the Premier League? Is there a possibility the player who steps in for them stakes a claim on the starting role? The more you can understand about the team and how the manager will look to accommodate your player’s return to fitness, the better.

Fantasy Value

Shifting from a real-life gameplay perspective to a fantasy one, you should also weigh up how much value your player can deliver. Are they the best player on your team? In a particular position? Are they nailed-on or are they more of a rotation piece? How many points can you expect from them when they start, and is that enough to make the case for holding on through their absence? Look through the stats from previous seasons (and the current one, if there’s enough available) to understand what you’d be giving up.

Replacement Options

Even if your injured player isn’t the best on your roster, you still want to make sure you have decent alternatives available to you before you drop them. Compare how your player stacks up against those who are in the Free Agent pool or on the Waiver Wire and determine how likely it is you can bring in a comparable replacement. This is an easier prospect earlier in the season while preferred lineups are still being figured out and managers have more FAB available, but don’t underestimate the power of streaming high-upside players on a short-term basis based on the difficulty of their fixtures.

Roster Construction

The final item to assess is how much tolerance you have to hold onto your player with regard to the rest of your roster. Do you have other solid options in the same position?

If you’re a manager who isn’t particularly active on the waiver wire, you may be better served holding onto a player that can offer long-term value to your team rather than dropping and hoping you can find a suitable replacement week-over-week. If you tend to operate on the opposite end of the spectrum and routinely chop and change your roster, you might find it easier to navigate having essentially one fewer player on your roster.

The Premier League schedule also plays a role in this decision. Having dead weight on your roster during the festive period, where there is typically a lot of rotation and it can be challenging to field a full team, can be the difference between four wins and four losses on your season record. Same goes for blank gameweeks.

Keep or Drop Scenarios: 23/24 Premier League Injuries

With the benefit of hindsight, let’s assess some of the players who spent part of last season in the treatment room and make a loose judgment call on whether they should have been held or dropped (understanding that the replacement options and roster construction considerations really can’t be accounted for since they would be different from league to league).

Note: One thing you should almost always do before dropping a player is to see if you can find a suitable trade. Just be realistic about what you can hope to get in return based on the injury situation. And please, don’t be the person who tries to trade out their injured player before other people have seen the news.

Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo missed 96 days from December 7 until March 12 with an ankle injury. In total, he missed 13 games this season and started 22 games. Mbeumo was on fire to start the season, especially with Toney missing through suspension. He was the penalty taker as well and a clear FWD1 during this stretch. His ankle injury was very untimely and ahead of the really busy "festive" period, which left managers with a tough decision. Ultimately, it was rumoured that Mbeumo could miss the rest of the season with his injury, with a constantly changing timescale. This alone made him a very difficult hold. He was one of those "hold until more clear news breaks" or drop if you needed the room.

Assessment: Hold through initial assessment, but a drop during the festive period.

Diogo Jota

It almost seems like a rare occurrence for Jota to be healthy for a whole season now a days. An absolute talent when fit, and arguably Liverpool's best finisher but keeping him fit is seemingly harder than teaching Nunez how to score. This season Jota had two different injury spells. He missed 8 games between November - December with a muscle injury, then 11 games from February to April with a knee issue. Jota was very much in and out of the lineup to start the season, with Klopp struggling to choose between him and the aforementioned Nunez. Jota still provided a high ceiling as part of a prolific Liverpool attack and was a must start when Klopp named him in the XI. There came a point in the season where he was a must start for Klopp given his form and finishing ability, something Nunez has lacked in his game. It was during the months of January - February where Jota really took off scoring 4 goals and 4 assists across 6 games, it was very unfortunate he got an injury during this incredible purple patch. With a player with an injury history like Jota, you never know if setbacks will be a thing. It seems once he gets firing he just gets hurt again, making him a tough one to decide whether to hold or drop.

Assessment: Jota is worth holding through the muscle injury sustained in November. His knee injury in February makes him a drop despite his good form. Before dropping, look to trade out to the manager with Nunez.

Kevin De Bruyne

Probably the toughest assessment on this list, given his injury issues this season. KDB is nothing short of a Fantrax legend, one of those players who can single-handedly win you titles when fit, and put up monster scores to bring you back from the dead in matchups. De Bruyne was rushed back after a preseason injury, and lasted just 22 minutes in the opening fixture before suffering another hamstring injury, this time being ruled out until mid December. That was 35 total games missed with both club and country for the attacking midfielder. To draft KDB you would have had to use a first round pick even with his preseason injury scare. Now you are left with a tough decision: drop your first round pick after just 1 game, or potentially hold him on your bench for 4+ months with no real timeline given on his return. Ultimately it came down to roster construction, and seeing what value you can get from KDB on the trade market. He was far from a drop, but definitely a trade out if your other top round picks weren't panning out and you couldn't wait for KDB to return. The value managers got for KDB seriously ranged from some useful FAB to assets worthy of a 5th round pick.

Assessment: KDB was worth a trade out if your other early round picks weren't hitting the ground running. Example: if you drafted the likes of Nunez and Rashford in the next 2 rounds, KDB should be traded out for a useable asset or two to help you get wins on the board.

Richarlison

Richarlison didn't miss as many games as the rest of the group here, but posed a different problem. He constantly had knocks and wasn't really a mainstay in the XI from November on. His longest injury spell was 23 days this season, and while he still ended up appearing in 28 EPL games, he only started 18 of them. With a situation like this, it's a bit tougher to decide. If you have rotational Spurs assets such as Werner, Johnson, and Kulusevski, holding Richarlison made a bit more sense. If you had no Spurs assets or only Maddison/Son, then offering out Richarlison in a trade or dropping him was the best move.

Assessment: Trade out if you don't have any rotational Spurs assets. Hold until you need the extra spot for blank week/ double gameweek purposes.

Gabriel Jesus

Another year on this ignominious list for Gabriel Jesus! Similar to his North London neighbor Richarlison, Jesus had multiple injuries over the course of the season, making him frustrating to roster. In the end, he only mustered 17 starts. When he did start, he provided close to FWD1 value with a 10.8 Points Per Start (PPS), but again the key word is WHEN. Jesus commanded a late first round or early second round pick - depending on if you drafted prior to news of his preseason injury, and clearly was a disappointment regardless of where you drafted him. His final start of the season was on April 20, after which he became just a bench/role player. In hindsight, Jesus should have been dropped after his February knee injury was announced. While he only missed 5 games, after that he only scored 10 points twice, meaning only 2/10 of his last appearances this year were double digit scores. While we have the benefit of hindsight, it would have been very difficult to drop him days after he delivered a 25 point performance against Luton Town, and 19.5 the match prior. He looked like he was finally finding his stride, then a setback to his knee derailed his season.

Assessment: Was a trade out once Havertz became first choice striker during his absence in February. At that point, you could have probably gotten decent value from a manager who rostered a non-Saka Arsenal attacker.

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Keep in mind that each injury situation will be different, but if you take these elements into consideration when a player on your roster is inevitably stricken with an ailment or affliction, you can take solace in your decision. Now let's just hope we don't have any more first round level assets get early season injuries again! Quite a few players with ADPs of 25 or less missed a good chunk of the season: Nkunku, De Bruyne, March, and Jesus being the main culprits.

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