Arsenal 24/25 Fantasy Forecast

With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Arsenal's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Arsenal Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!

Our Arsenal 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Arsenal Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.

Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!

Arsenal Fantasy Forecast 24/25

Let's jump into our in-depth look at Arsenal's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!

Quick Links: 

Fantasy Forecast 

Players to Watch 

Players to Avoid 

Question Marks 

Early-Season Fixture Difficulty 

Predicted Lineup

Fantasy Forecast

Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Arsenal player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Gunners' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.

24/25 Player Projections

Below, you'll find our season projections for Arsenal fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.

Not many surprises here at the top - the hitmakers keep making hits. According to our projections, Bukayo Saka remains the most valuable fantasy asset with a projected PPS of 16.6, followed by Mr. Reliable, Martin Odegaard. But then we have Kai Havertz and Declan Rice, both of whom were collective houses on fire to finish the season (get ready to hear this a lot), battling it out for next best. Kai is projected to get 30 starts, which should happen as long as he continues last season's form. Whoever wins the starting LW spot or gets the most starts there (Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus, or Leandro Trossard) will also offer great value - but the uncertainty makes it a difficult punt. Meanwhile, the backline and GK formed the best defense in the league. Judging by last season, breakout defender Ben White and set piece assassin Gabriel Magalhaes are the likely fantasy standouts. But just like the LW role, keep an eye on who wins the battle for starting LB, with Timber a potential late round grab there.

Players to Watch

We've highlighted some Arsenal players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.

Gabriel Jesus

Position: FWD

23/24 Points: 219.5 (39th best best FWD)

23/24 Points Per Start: 10.8 (17 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 50 - 60 (12 Team League: Round 4 - 5)

Analysis: The Brazilian had a rough 23/24 campaign. Gabriel Jesus got hurt - again - before the season started and missed the first few GWs. He then got injured again and lost his spot up top to Kai Havertz, which forced him to come off the bench or play sparingly at LW for the remainder of the season. He still finished with a respectable 10+ Points Per Start (PPS) but only started 17 games (the majority in the October - December period) and was a disappointment, especially as most managers expended a very valuable first or second round draft pick on him.

Coming into 23/24, however, there was hope that Jesus could replicate his blistering form from the first half of his debut season in 2022. In the first 14 matches prior to the World Cup break - and his subsequent knee injury with Brazil in that tournament - he delivered nearly 15 Point Per Start (PPS), was a top ten player, and still made 24 starts. In 2024 starts, with nearly 15 PPS - a top ten player - before the World Cup break and his subsequent knee injury, which has hampered him ever since. He really just hasn't been the same player since that fateful day in Qatar.

This summer is the most critical point in Jesus' career. From all accounts, his knee surgery went well and he is rehabbing like an animal and champing at the bit to make a triumphant return and prove the doubters (you lot) wrong. These reports provide just enough hope to want to draft him for value with the expectation that he can get back to those dizzying heights of September 2022. But there are quite a few hurdles in the way. First, Kai Havertz performed exceptionally while leading the line from February on and is unlikely not to start there come GW1 v Wolves. Second, he still needs to prove he can stay fit, which gets more difficult as these knocks stack up. Having said all that, if Jesus regains his form, he can make himself nearly impossible to leave out, which means he could start on LW or give Saka some rest at RW. And if Kai slips up at all, he will be there to slot in at a moment's notice. In short, he is a wildcard in this draft, a boom or bust candidate that is too risky to pick as your FWD1 but safer albeit more expensive to pair/cuff with another attacking Gunner like Kai Havertz or Gabriel Martinelli.

Jurrien Timber

Position: DEF

23/24 Points: N/A (missed nearly the entire season through injury)

23/24 Points Per Start: (1 start)

Recommended Draft Pick: 115 - 125 (12 Team League: Rounds 10 - 11)

Analysis: There was so much buzz surrounding the transfer of Jurrien Timber, a dynamic defender who could really slot in anywhere given his technical abilities on the ball, from Ajax to Arsenal last summer. The hype further increased when we actually saw him glide across the pitch in the preseason Community Shield match v Manchester City, where he started at LB. But all this was cut excruciatingly short when he went down in the season opener against Nottingham Forest with an ACL injury that kept him out of 99% of the 23/24 campaign.

Thus, we don't have much data to analyze and predict how he will do this upcoming season. In his collective 69 minutes against Forest on August 12 and Everton on May 19, Timber scored -.25 points. Obviously this doesn't really tell us anything. But it is important to try and predict where he will get his points in order to assess his potential value. Just being a starting defender on Arsenal provides value through cleansheets - Arsenal had the most last season and should continue that trend this season. But as you'll see with Saliba below, that alone is not enough. Timber has shown the ability to get forward and nick a few attacking returns - he had 5 G/A two seasons ago at Ajax and should cook in this Arsenal system. His key ghost point assets, though, are likely Successful Dribbles (he can slalom across the pitch) and Key Passes (he'll be in the attacking third and is a deadly passer. He has the potential to rival Ben White's 23/24 season. But he needs to stay fit (difficult after a long term absence; be sure to monitor preseason fitness), nail down the starting LB role (he should but not guaranteed given all the competition outlined below), and prove he can ghost (he has the tools but we just don't have the proof yet). He is a later round value pick that is well worth a gamble.

FOOTNOTE: Since the time of writing, Arsenal has signed Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori from Bologna, who is similar to Jakub Kiwior and can play LCB or LB. While I still expect Timber to start the season as LB, to be safe, managers interested in Timber/the Arsenal LB spot will now also have to punt on Calafiori, who is known for his interceptions (this could make him a decent ghoster). Timber can also play anywhere across the backline and in the midfield. Preseason will hopefully shed some light on the LB situation.

Players to Avoid

It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Emirates. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Arsenal players you might want to avoid come draft day.

William Saliba

Position: DEF

23/24 Points: 257 (12th best DEF)

23/24 Points Per Start: 6.7 (37 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 125 - 135 (12 Team League: Rounds 11-12)

Analysis: Rarely will you find a bigger chasm between value and impact in real life versus fantasy than William Saliba. Just 22 years old and he's already one of the best CBs in the Premier League and the world. He helped lead Arsenal to the best defense in the league with 18 clean sheets and just 29 goals conceded. The Gunners fell away in 22/23 after he succumbed to an injury v Porto in the Europa League but with him fit all season, they finished the season strong. He is arguably the most influential player in their squad.

In fantasy, however, his value is nowhere near the same as it is in real life. His 6.7 PPS, despite the 18 cleansheets, is beyond mediocre. Saliba simply does not ghost. His Ghost Points Per Start (GPPS) average was below 5 last season. In contrast, his CB partner Gabriel Magahlaes maintained a GPPS of nearly 7. His name value and the fact that he's on the best defense in the league means Saliba will likely be drafted earlier than he should. We're not falling for it, even with the changes in defensive scoring this year.

Leandro Trossard

Position: MID

23/24 Points: 262.5 (39th best MID)

23/24 Points Per Start: 10.2 (17 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 80 - 90 (12 Team League: Rounds 7 - 8)

Analysis: The diminutive Belgian was yet another Gunner who caught fire in the latter stages of the 24/25 campaign. Trossard began the season behind Gabriel Martinelli in the pecking order but his goal-scoring form dovetailed with Martinelli's dip in production and ultimately forced Arteta's hand. He has become arguably Arsenal's most clinical finisher - a trait the team desperately lacked, especially in the first part of the season. The proof is in the pudding- he finished with 12 goals, despite only 17 starts, and a double digit PPS.

So what's not to like? Well, if Trossard was guaranteed to start, that'd be one thing. But despite how well he played for large stretches of 23/24, Arteta will still probably field Martinelli there when fit, with the Belgian as a super sub. Preseason lineups might give a good indication of what the manager is thinking regarding the LW dilemma. Trossard is also still fairly goal-dependent. He only mustered a GPPS average of less than 6. But given his numbers and his prolific end to the season, his draft position will likely be inflated too much for our liking.

Question Marks

Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Arsenal. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Gunners that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Arsenal's fantasy assets.

IS THIS FINALLY THE SEASON FOR ROTATION?

Despite being a Pep Guardiola disciple, Arteta does not like to switch things up. A creature of habit, he usually is averse to making many changes to the starting xi if he doesn't have to. We went into last season and the onset of Champions League football wondering if that would force him to rotate. But it really didn't happen, This is great for fantasy managers who despise Pep roulette and constant rotation at some clubs. However, it can lead to exhaustion, loss of form, injury, or all three. Now that he'll hopefully have a fit and deep bench available, with Timber, Tomiyasu, Jesus, Vieira, and others back and raring to go, will this finally be the time he veers from a set XI every GW? It's not rational to expect Arteta to swap one extreme for the other but my guess is that he does start to rotate a few positions where there is some nice depth (e.g., LW and Fullback), and that might make for some interesting fantasy handcuffs and frustrated managers.

WILL KAI CONTINUE LEADING THE LINE?

One of the biggest question marks in this very article last Summer was what was Arteta going to do with the mercurial Kai Havertz after his big money transfer from Chelsea. Well, he ended up playing in both spots - LCM and ST - with the latter winning out after the halfway mark of the season. The team lacked fluidity and had some poor results when Kai was experimentally having a go at LCM. But after the winter break and the switch to the number nine role, Kai's production (in real life and fantasy as Havertz was the 5th highest fantasy point scorer in the second half of the campaign) and Arsenal's form improved significantly. This, of course, relegated Gabriel Jesus to the bench and a few starts on the wing. But with Jesus seemingly back fit, will Arteta persist with Kai up top? Will he be tried again at LCM? Given how the latter stages of the season panned out, it's hard to imagine that Kai won't at least start the season leading the line. Yet if he or the team take a dip in that setup, Jesus will be waiting in the wings to pounce and reclaim that spot.

WILL RICE KEEP HIS MORE ATTACKING ROLE?

Similar to Kai, there was some uncertainty surrounding where new signing Declan Rice would slot in - at the 6/CDM role or more of an attacking 8? The early injury to Thomas Partey somewhat forced the issue and meant Rice would start the season at the 6 spot. But Arteta shifted midseason, just like with Kai, and brought Rice further forward - with Jorginho getting more starts at CDM - and even gave him left-sided corner duty. And he flourished, his newfound role aiding the team's resurgence in the business end of the season. Partey's return at the very tail end of the campaign provided a preview of what Arteta likely was envisioning in the first place before the injury. Again, just like with Kai, if it ain't broke don't fix it. Rice should maintain his more buccaneering role in the midfield, which would be boosted by a new CDM signing.

WHO WILL COME BACK WITH A VENGEANCE?

There are no shortage of quality players looking to force their way into the Arsenal starting xi and have a breakout 24/25 campaign. Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Fabio Vieira, & Emile Smith Rowe - especially the two Gabriels having previously been nailed on starters - all have the talent to gain some redemption this season. Jesus, as mentioned above, finally took care of his knee surgery. Martinelli should be hungry to make us forget his very forgettable 23/24 form. Vieira's ball striking and creativity is often sorely lacking in this team, and his price tag and numerous sources dictate that Arteta believes in him. And ESR is surely desperate to make us sing his name again after his breakout 22/23 season. The odds favor the Brazilian lads but the title is up for grabs.

Early-Season Fixture Difficulty

The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Arsenal's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.

Arsenal has a very difficult start to the season. According to the Athletic's rankings of early schedule difficulty, the Gunners have the second hardest opening five fixtures. This includes visits to Villa Park, the Etihad, and Spurs for the North London derby. Other than Newcastle and Liverpool, these are arguably the three toughest away fixtures this season. This stretch also features tricky matchups against the enigmatic Wolves and Brighton. It softens up a bit after that, so if Arsenal can emerge through this rough patch relatively unscathed, they'll be in good stead for the rest of the season. But this arduous period may somewhat depress Arsenal assets in the draft and/or come late September.

24/25 Arsenal Predicted Lineup

Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Arsenal lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Arsenal's XI shaking out.

Nearly 3/4 of the lineup is relatively set. The only question marks lie revolve around the LW, LB, & CDM spots. Martinelli, Trossard, and Jesus all could stake a claim for starting LW but Arteta will likely persist with Martinelli come GW1, with the others ready to pounce if, like last season, the Brazilian loses form. At LB, Timber, barring another injury setback in preseason, likely beats out Zinchenko, Tomiyasu, and Kiwior. As mentioned above, Rice should continue as the LCM/6 with Partey or new signing (TBD) slotting into the CDM/8 role but this could change depending on the matchup, and if Arsenal prioritize signing a more attacking minded midfielder such as Eze.

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