5 High Risk Lottery Tickets

Given the gap between your draft, the season opener, and the close of the transfer window, there will be many uncertainties swirling around when you make your picks. These 5+ players are currently the subject of transfer sagas - they may stay, they may go - and their value is almost completely dependent on how things shake out. They are high risk, high reward plays that could pay off. Ryan & Genie run the gauntlet for you. Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 Draft Kit.

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5 High Risk Lottery Tickets

Cristiano Ronaldo | ADP 24

Ronaldo has been in the headlines this summer for all the wrong reasons. He has seemingly abandoned Manchester United, with the club insisting it is for "family" reasons, and Ten Hag openly stating Ronaldo is in their plans. All the meanwhile Ronaldo has been linked to every Champions League club in Europe seemingly, with not many keen on taking the 37 year old, and his insane wages. In the end there is a very good chance Ronaldo ends up seeing out the season with Manchester United, but he certainly won't settle for a 2nd choice role. You can bet that if Ronaldo stays, he will do whatever he can to win some sort of trophy with this club, if this really is his last season with United. Ronaldo has never played in the Europa League...ever...ever.....and will be looking to prove that if he is in it, United can win that and more.

I expect Ronaldo to be the first choice striker with Martial providing backup to give him the odd rest, and save his legs late in games. Martial has been in poor form for well..years..so to expect he will be the first choice striker of Manchester United after 1 preseason goal against Liverpool is a bit much. He'll be the perfect deputy to Ronaldo given his age, but certainly won't consistently supplant the Portuguese. Taking him in round 2 (his ADP), is a risk but one with high reward. In a perfect world, I'd recommend taking Ronaldo is round 3 (he could even slip further if rumors swirl again) as your FWD2. Having the upside of this star striker, who will probably be on penalty duty, as a FWD2 should have you on your way to some massive scores. The closer to the season you draft, the more willing you should be to take Ronaldo given the diminished chance that he leaves.

Marc Cucurella | ADP 59

Those long-flowing locks on the Brighton fullback have unsurprisingly attracted the attention of one Pep Guardiola. Marc Cucurella came over to Brighton from Spain last summer and almost immediately hit the ground running. He passed the eye test and also had himself a decent fantasy season, dropping roughly 8.5 points per start, largely of the ghost persuasion. If he played on a better team and accrued more cleansheets, he could be a top defender.

By the end of the transfer window, he just may. Manchester City has been sniffing around Cucurella all summer but have yet to make their move. Now that Oleksandr Zinchenko has departed for Arsenal, they will look to quickly snap up Cucurella. The arrival of Cucurella to City would likely shift Joao Cancelo back to his preferred RB spot. And while there would, of course, be some rotation (this is Pep we're talking about after all), an attacking Cucurella on a City team that keeps a ton of cleansheets could deliver DEF1 value. Depending on when you draft, the possibility of him remaining a Seagull is enough to keep his ADP down around the 5th round. But if the move did come off, I reckon he'd shoot up a few rounds. Herein lies the opportunity. Betting on this move happening could get you explosive upside at some tasty value. This punt also has the added benefit of being lower risk than many of these others. If Cucurella does end up staying at Brighton, he's still a solid, nailed on DEF2/3.

Conor Gallagher | ADP 79

Gallagher has proved over the last 2 seasons that he can cut it in the EPL. Not only that, he has shown improvement each season, and rightfully deserves meaningful minutes on a decent EPL side. The biggest worry here is that he stays at Chelsea to fight for his place in a midfield mess that involves Kante, Kovacic, Jorginho, Loftus-Cheek, Mount, and even Barkley. That is a crowded group for only 2-3 starting spots. No doubt Gallagher will get minutes if he stays at Chelsea. But unless he gets a serious chance to crack the EPL XI, then he is almost useless from a fantasy perspective. A few teams are in the "chase" for Gallagher - Aston Villa and Crystal Palace seem to be leading the charge. The risk here, again, is that Gallagher chooses to stay at Chelsea to earn his spot. Gallagher is only 22 years old so one could make an argument for either outcome. At this age, he believes he can easily be Chelsea's "long-term" #8 and soon replace Kovacic. Or he believes he is too young and talented to sit on the bench, even for just a season or two, and immediately wants a first team role. Fantasy managers will be hoping for the latter.

His ADP puts him at round 7, and that's about right given the risk/reward proposition. I personally would hope to get him in the 8th-9th, but don't mind reaching in the 7th if I already have 1-2 midfielders that I know will start a good chunk of games. As a MID3, Gallagher offers incredible upside if he moves to a club where he will be a week in week out starter and one of the focal points. If the window closes and he stays at Chelsea, he is worth holding on your bench in the off chance that he gets some early starts in West London. There is always the chance of a January loan/sale as well if he isn't getting the role he hoped for. So it's a tough one to determine if he's worth the drop, especially with the massive World Cup break in November.

Last season, Gallagher managed 10.4 points per start in his 33 starts, with 7.6 ghost points per 90. That is pretty solid for someone who could be your MID3. He finished with 8 goals and 3 assists as well, which should be around what we expect if he cracks 30 starts anywhere. If he somehow manages to get into the Chelsea XI, I would expect his assists to crack the 5-7 range given the better attacking talent surrounding him than at a mid-lower table club.

Adama Traore | ADP 122

The fantasy legend that is Adama, who more than warrants his one word/Prince-like name, will always excite the community. However, he has been very frustrating to roster over the years, with uncertain playing time and lack of attacking returns. This hit an apex last January when he broke many managers' hearts by leaving for his native Barcelona on loan. But now he's back at Wolves - for now. He only has one year left on his contract and has refused - up to now - to sign a new one. As such, this summer is Wolves' last chance to get any money for him. So it is very unlikely that he'll stay at Molineux this season, unless he decides to run out his contract and leave on a free next summer.

So where does that leave us? Well, there are 4 possible outcomes. First, he stays at Wolves and he sulks. And he gets some cameo minutes. Second, he stays at Wolves and he actually gets a fairly prominent role in Lage's system, and he grabs the opportunity with both hands to get a lucrative new deal. Third, he leaves for another Premier League club. Finally, he goes overseas. The first two scenarios are possible but unlikely. Wolves are incentivized to get a transfer fee for him and Adama will surely want to get some playing time elsewhere. If he does end up staying, though, his draft prospects will be slim...unless we see him getting some early starts. We are then left with the prospect that he is no longer a Wolves player come the end of the summer. I see this as fairly likely - and that he stays in the Premier League, the ideal scenario for fantasy managers. Adama is Spanish and would presumably like to go to the World Cup. It didn't work out for him at Barcelona, there have been no rumors linking him to other clubs in La Liga, and he knows the EPL. My bet is that he leaves Wolves but stays in England.

Let's now get down to brass tacks. If he does indeed go to another EPL club and he becomes a starter - a lot of big ifs, granted - he can be a top 20 player (he was 7th top scorer just 3 seasons ago). His ghost points will always make him an amazing fantasy asset if he gets some starts. So where should he be drafted? Like everyone else on this list, it's high risk, high reward. If his future isn't sorted out by the time your draft is live, you have a choice to make. He'll be available in most drafts at least until round 9/10. He's worth the punt if you don't mind the risk; if you wanna go big or go home, he's your man.

Ross Barkley | ADP 154

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma - that is either a Winston Churchill quote about the Soviet Union or an apt description of Ross Barkley's career. Or both. The attacking midfielder had a bright start at a very young age at his first club, Everton, which made Chelsea come calling in 2018. Since that transfer, he has only started more than 13 games in one season, and that was when he was loaned to Aston Villa. Despite clearly not being fancied in West London, Barkley has seemingly refused to make a move. There was a lot of hope before last season's draft that he would get picked up by a mid-table club but it never materialized.

Hope springs eternal, as we're now wagering yet again that he'll depart for pastures anew before the window closes. The reason why we hope against hope every draft, despite being routinely disappointed, is that he balls when he starts. Back in his heyday at Everton (2015-2017), he averaged over a dozen points per game. And again, while he has leveled off since, he has had some incredible cameos in a Chelsea shirt, including dropping a 39 spot against his old club Everton in 2019. Given regular starts at the beginning of his loan at Villa, he was a dangerous attacking threat. And in his lone start last season, he scored a goal! He'll likely go undrafted in most leagues. But if you're adventurous, give Barkley/hope a chance.

Honorable Mention:

• Armando Broja | ADP 157 - There are strong rumors linking him to West Ham. If he earns a starting role there or at another midtable EPL team, he has FWD2 value. Worth looking at around the 9th or 10th round.

• Eric Bailly | ADP N/A - A player with an awful injury record, but needs a chance to prove himself. He has shown his talent and potential in the rare starts he gets. Fulham are lurking, if he moves he is worth a punt at the end of the draft. The dude is fearless which alone racks him up some ghost points.

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