Aston Villa 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Ryan Barnes
- Jul 27, 2024
- 11 min read
Updated: Jul 30, 2024
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview the Villans' fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Aston Villa Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Aston Villa 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Aston Villa Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Aston Villa Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Villa's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
Quick Links:
Fantasy Forecast
What's past is prologue, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Aston Villa player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Villans' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Aston Villa fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
After Ollie Watkins - no surprise he's on top given that he was the top scoring forward in the league in 23/24 and he scored nearly 150 points more than the 2nd highest scorer at Villa last season) - it's a free for all. Leon Bailey had a breakout campaign but can he stay fit and go from strength to strength? Moussa Diaby showed flashes of brilliance but lacked consistency in his debut season and is now off to Saudi Arabia. His eventual replacement and the Jamaican winger will be high upside punts. Midfield-wise, there is mediocrity and injury/rotation issues. John McGinn should continue to do a job as a MID4 of MID5. Meanwhile, Youri Tielemans just doesn't score well anymore. New signing Ross Barkley showed at Luton Town that he's still got it. But will he stay fit, start enough, and take any set pieces? Jacob Ramsey and Emi Buendia are both reeling from long term injuries and have to compete with January transfer Morgan Rogers who had some good performances in the latter stages of the season. It appears that former Everton midfield enforcer, Amadou Onana, will come in to replace the sizable hole in the engine room vacated by Douglas Luiz (as well as the returning Boubacar Kamara and possibly, recently signed Enzo Barrenechea). But without set pieces, Onana is unlikely to be much more than a streamer as central midfielders rarely score well in Emery' system. Meanwhile, all defenders other than Chelsea transfer Ian Maatsen are cautionary tales.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Aston Villa players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Morgan Rogers
Position: MID (he was classified as a FWD last season)
23/24 Points: 78 (56th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 8.1 (8 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 90 - 100 (12 Team League: Rounds 8 or 9)
Analysis: The injury plague on the left side of the Villa attack - with Buendia and Ramsey out for most of the season - opened up a spot for Morgan Rogers, who came from Middlesbrough in the January transfer window. He took advantage and hit the ground running, nicking 8 starts and delivering 4 G/A in the process. For our purposes, all this equated to a PPS of just over 8. Averaging an attacking return every other start is a pretty good start to life in the EPL. But can he keep it up or improve in his sophomore season?
The kid certainly has an eye for goal, which will be needed in a Villa side that is heavily reliant on Watkins and Bailey to hit the back of the net. His form at the end of last season is likely unsustainable but still a good sign. Fantasy-wise, it doesn't look like he does much else as his GPPS during that stretch was just over 4. This is pretty standard for an Emery midfielder, even attacking in his role. Jacob Ramsey has a similar attacking return dependence. Speaking of which, Rogers has a fair amount of competition in this spot if Ramsey and Buendia remain at Villa Park. But with both coming off really bad injuries and his hot start, Rogers will have every chance to win over Emery. There's also recently re-signed Jaden Philogene-Bidace, of a similar age and stylistic profile, who had a successful season at LW for Hull, with 18 returns in 21 games (albeit in the Championship). By all accounts, though, Rogers has been tearing it up in preseason this summer. While he would be our bet to start on the left, it's still TBD whether he holds the spot consistently, and his lack of ghosts means a lack of floor. As a result, a 7-9th round punt makes sense.
Ian Maatsen
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: 120 - 130 (12 Team League: Rounds 11 or 12)
Analysis: The Left Back position in Emery's system - either by design or due to personnel - tends to be a fairly lucrative role fantasy-wise. Lucas Digne and Alex Moreno have, at times, been quality fantasy assets. But Emery seems to be over them and wants to try something new. Which is why Villa signed Chelsea loan machine and former academy product for big money - how did he escape the clutches of Vitesse? - Ian Maatsen. Good with the ball at his feet and going forward, the Dutch LB showed his quality with Burnley in the Championship in 22/23, producing 10 G/A and a solid 10 PPS & 7 GPPS. He continued this decent form on loan with Dortmund in 23/24 with 4 G/A and 9.2 PPS in just 16 games.
He should come straight into a starting role with the Villans and it never hurts to have Ollie Watkins to aim at. There is a decent chance he outperforms his 8.4 PPS and 20 starts projection outlined above. And he looks to be underrated in Average Draft Position (ADP) - at least at the moment. If you can nick him in the later rounds, he can likely deliver DEF2 or DEF3 value at a discount price.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Villa Park. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Aston Villa players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Defenders
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: N/A
Analysis: None of the Villa defenders posted more than 7 PPS last season and other than Maatsen none are projected to do so this season. Even with the scoring changes eliminating the -2 for initial goals conceded, the likes of Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, and Matty Cash are not worth drafting. None of these three scored more than 5 PPS (Cash 4.4; Torres 3.9; Konsa 3.2). These are absolutely abysmal numbers. The only defenders that eclipsed this 5 PPS threshold, unsurprisingly, are the two left backs(Lucas Digne & Alex Moreno). In the Emery asymmetrical defense, the left backs come with some attacking bite. Maatsen should continue this tradition while everyone else in the backline, again, remain undraftable.
Youri Tielemans
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 218 (71st best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 7 (17 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: The fall has been hard. Leicester City's Youri Tielemans no longer seems to exist, replaced by whatever the hell this is. His near double digit PPS from the heady days of 20/21 and 21/22 has taken quite a hit. The Belgian only mustered 17 starts, 7 PPS, and 4.5 GPPS for Villa last campaign. He can still deliver a moment of magic via a long range effort, but he has zero consistency and is seemingly off most set pieces. Douglas Luiz has departed but with Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley coming the other way, there is still no room at the inn for poor Youri. He still has some name recognition from the good times at Leicester, but he will be a hard pass for me in the draft.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Aston Villa. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Villans that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Villa's fantasy assets.
How Will Champions League Football Impact the Team?
As a reward for their fantastic season, Aston Villa will be playing in the Champions League this season. It's a tremendous achievement, especially for a club not in the "big 6". But it can also be an albatross, especially for our purposes. Aston Villa closely resemble 23/24 Newcastle coming into this new season - a non big 6 club that overachieved and secured 4th place/Champions League football. The Magpies battled through their CL Group of Death, barely failing to reach the knockout stages. But more importantly, they caught the injury bug and lost ground in the Premier League. They fell from 4th to 7th and finished with 11 less points than the previous CL-free season. Theirs is a cautionary tale for fantasy managers targeting Villa assets in the draft. For more detailed analysis on the fantasy impact of European football, please take a look at the upcoming draft kit article titled "The Effects of European Competitions".
Unai Emery's form in Europe is legendary, having reached countless Europa League finals and taking relative minnows Villareal to a Champions League semifinal. Will he prioritize CL to the detriment of Villa's EPL prospects? He'll have to start his studs more, which could lead to more injuries and perhaps more rotation than he's used to (he didn't rotate much when they got close to the business end of last season's Europa Conference League campaign). While Watkins has not shown any injury concerns or let up, someone like Leon Bailey has and he'll need to be handled with kid gloves. How the Spanish manager deals with the onset of CL football will dramatically impact the fantasy prospects for the Villans.
Will Villa Miss Luiz?
Douglas Luiz has been the heart of this Villa side for years. He combined the graft and creativity needed to make the Villans tick. He joined the Italian giants, Juventus, this summer, leaving a big hole in the engine room. Emery has brought in Ross Barkley and Amadou Onana to try to fill it. But will it be enough? How will it impact the team and the fantasy production?
Luiz was one of the few Villa midfielders to score relatively well fantasy-wise. With 9 G/A and close to 10 PPS, he was the third best fantasy scorer on the team after Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins, propelled by his dominance of set pieces. Villa scored a relatively impressive 14 goals from set pieces last season (7th best in the EPL; Arsenal led the league with 20). So who will take over the set piece mantle and help fill the void in the center of the park? There should be points to go around. Onana should replicate the steel and Barkley the silk. But neither will likely replicate Luiz's numbers. If Barkley does indeed replace him on set piece duty, he certainly could fill his boots as a MID2. But this is currently up in the air and there are many suitors (e.g., McGinn, Bailey, & others) and rotation could make duplicating Luiz's 35 starts nearly impossible. This is certainly something to keep an eye on in preseason.
Who Will Be the Third Primary Goalscorer & Fantasy Stud?
Aston Villa is very top heavy. The fantasy points and attacking returns aren't widely dispersed. Watkins, Bailey, and to a lesser extent, Luiz, delivered the brunt of the goods. This should continue but as noted above, there is an opening for a 3rd amigo with the departures of Luiz and now Diaby, who combined to produce 28 G/A. Who will step up and fill the gap? Whoever does will be the next best fantasy asset from the West Midlands side.
Rogers, Ramsey, Barkley, and McGinn can all pitch in but the answer may lie elsewhere. Surely Villa will utilize at least some of the proceeds of the Diaby sale to bring in another attacker to push Bailey and others. Joao Felix, at the time of writing, is being bandied about. He showed at Chelsea that he can be decent fantasy scorer. Whether it's Felix or someone else, whoever comes in Diaby's stead will be a tantalizing prospect. If they don't replace him, someone like Philogene-Bidace, Jhon Duran (in the unlikely event he's not sold), Samuel Iling-Junior or Cameron Archer could become fantasy viable and/or more scoring responsibilities will be on the shoulders of Barkley and company. Stay tuned.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Aston Villa's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Arsenal notwithstanding (and it's at home), this is a pretty tasty start for the Villans. And they'll probably need it given that Champions League fixtures will come thick and fast shortly after. West Ham, Everton, and Wolves were all bottom half teams and newly promoted Leicester is also thrown into the mix. If you're worried about the impact of CL on Villa assets, selling high after what looks like a good early run, should be a distinct possibility.
24/25 Aston Villa Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Aston Villa lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Aston Villa's XI shaking out.
Emery should continue his tried and true version of a 442. The question marks in terms of personnel revolve around the left side and central midfield as there is now incredible depth in both areas. While this is still up in the air and there will be plenty of games for rotation, our educated guess is that Maatsen starts at LB, Rogers gets his chance further up on the left (with a lot of competition in the form of Ramsey, Philogene-Bidace, & Buendia), Barkley fills in for the departed David Luiz, and new signing Onana comes straight into the engine room. Otherwise, it's a pretty settled lineup with Torres & Konsa formed a nice CB partnership, Matty Cash often at RB, McGinn likely on the right or anywhere in the midfield, old reliable Ollie Watkins up top, and 23/24 breakout star Leon Bailey playing just off him (although a big name replacement for Diaby like a Joao Felix could force his way into the side). With CL football and the injuries and exhaustion that come with it, there will be opportunities for rotation and changes.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
Have you heard about our revolutionary Draft Fantasy Football app? We call it The Fantasy Toolkit. Expand to read more!
Each gameweek, The Fantasy Toolkit will bring you:
Recommended waiver adds & drops
Optimal lineup suggestions
Matchup projections vs your opponent
Trade calculator
Fixture Difficulty Tracker (for each position on the pitch)
Gameweek Transaction Data from the "Big 3" community leagues
ROS & Playoff Planning Tool
Team Power Rankings for every team in your league
ABD EVEN MORE TO COME!
All in one customized and personalised package
It's included in our Ultimate Pass and Season Pass plans and will give you a massive leg up on your league-mates. Check out a full demonstration video HERE for more info!
Comments