Crystal Palace 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Draft Society
- Jul 31, 2024
- 12 min read
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Crystal Palace's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Crystal Palace Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Crystal Palace 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Crystal Palace Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Crystal Palace Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Crystal Palace's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Palace's player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of The Eagles' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Crystal Palace fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
The above table represents our projections for Palace players for the 24/25 season sorted by WAR Rank. WAR, for those unaccustomed, is a measurement of how well a player performs for your team above and beyond an average replacement-level waiver wire player. A player who has a season-long WAR of 1.0, for example, would have basically helped your fantasy team to secure an additional win just by his being on your roster instead of an average replacement-level player.
Eberechi Eze is low low-hanging fruit here and the clear standout player. As long as he can stay healthy, he's well worth a round 1 pick. Do keep an eye on transfer rumours that are circulating about a move to Manchester City. Aside from proving that the soul of the game is well and truly gone, it would also dent his overall value given the rotation risk and being taken off of all set pieces.
J.P. Mateta and Daniel Munoz are the next two players of interest in this team, both projected for ~10 points per start. They are very different players, however. This is quite easily demonstrated by a stat called GACS%, which shows the percentage of that player's fantasy points that come directly from goals, assists, or clean sheets. Munoz is only 34% reliant on GACS with a ghost point per start average of 9.6. Mateta, on the other hand, is 54% reliant on GACS with only 5.4 ghosts per start. Mateta, for that reason, belongs in rounds 4 and 5 where he is currently being taken. Be cautions as his ADP sneaks up not to reach on a very goal dependent player.
The most anticipated new signing for Palace this summer, Ismaila Sarr, is a name that will be quite familiar to long time Premier League fans and EPL Draft managers alike. We'll discuss him in more depth below. However, don't expect him to replicate Michael Olise's 21 PPS or to register anything remotely close to that. One of these players is a generational talent and the other is Ismaila Sarr, a talented lad who was a role-playing contributor on Watford and then Marseille. Because of drafters' familiarity with his name, I worry that his ADP will rise to the a point to which he can't deliver draft-day value for your fantasy team.
Conveniently, the next three players in Wharton, Andersen, and Richards are all projected to average around 8.5 PPS, which is a fair to middling number. Importantly, they're all also projected to start most every match. These types of players can form a strong spine to your team, but will not win you any leagues. Try not to stack too many of these types of assets. Wharton and Andersen you'll have to take between rounds 7 and 10, while Richards you can get in the last two rounds.
Finally, let's talk about new signing Daichi Kamada. Many people got quite excited about his 2 assists and a goal in Palace's first couple of preseason games. While I love the enthusiasm, please don't reach on this player. When we translate his points from the 23/24 season to Fantrax default scoring, he posted a mediocre 7.8 PPS with 6.3 of those being ghost points. We love a ghost point getter here, but his attacking stats are worrying. Compared to other attacking MIDs across the big 5 leagues in Europe (according to FB Ref), he's 57th percentile in assists, 55th percentile in shot-creating actions, 67th percentile in progressive passes, and 65th percentile in non-penalty expected goals. Draft him late if you have hope for the Japanese's familiarity with Glasner, but again... please don't reach.
Final note: Keep an eye on Matheus Franca. We don't expect him to start too many matches this season, as he's still young and bedding into the Premier League. However, he's the closest thing that Palace have to an Olise replacement. He's just not there yet in his development. If he gets more of an opportunity that we expect, he could be a decent source of ghost points from dribbles and key passes.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Crystal Palace players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Daniel Munoz
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 181 (48th best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 9.9 (16 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 50 - 60 (12 Team League: Round 5ish)
Analysis: Munoz is a player who could very well take the next step in his career this season and cement himself as an EPL Draft fantasy stud in the process. He is only 36% reliant on goals, assists, and clean sheets for his fantasy points with 9.6 ghost points per start, a number that rivals that of draft legend James Tarkowski. With a full preseason under his belt with Glasner, we're hoping that he can progress in the attacking department a bit to bolster his PPS. Compared to other fullbacks in the big 5 European leagues, he ranks in the 79th percentile in expected goals, but only the 20th percentile in goals scored. That seems unlucky and those numbers will hopefully revert to the mean a bit. Add to that his 93rd percentile rank in assists and 82nd percentile rank in shot-creating actions, and there's real promise that he kicks on to an even better season this year.
Ismaila Sarr
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: 90 - 100 (12 Team League: Round 9+)
Analysis: As we discussed above, Sarr will likely be taken before round 9 simply due to his name recognition alone. Fret not if so. You've not missed out on a league-winning player. However, if you can get him later in the draft, he could slot in quite well as your FWD 3 and do a job for your fantasy squad. Why am I so hesitant while others seem so bullish? Unfortunately, when you combine the heroics of Olise and the history of Sarr in the draft game, it's going to get folks hot and bothered. But let's take a breath and compare these two players quickly.
As you can see, there is no comparison to be had. But that doesn't mean that he's not a "Player to Watch." We've seen Glasner turn water into wine before. (Remember that time you streamed Tyrick Mitchell and didn't immediately regret it? That's a miracle in my book.) And Sarr's 23/24 stats leave a lot to be desired. But in 22/23, he netted 10 goals and contributed 6 assists, so we know he has it in his locker. At the moment, is there a manager in the Prem who you'd back more than Glasner to create a fantasy phenom out of Ismaila Sarr? It's absolutely worth the risk if you can get him at a reasonable spot in drafts.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Selhurst Park. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Crystal Palace players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Marc Guehi
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 211 (71st best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 4.2 (23 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND (Do Not Draft)
Analysis: There are a plethora of reasons not to draft Marc Guehi this season, but here are just a few. I'll try to keep this one short. He scored an abysmal 4.2 points per start last season with a measly 5.3 ghost points per start. He didn't lead his team in a single defensive category: aerials, blocked shots, interceptions, or tackles won. He's been incredibly vocal about wanting to leave Selhurst and even if he does secure a move to another Premier League team, it's not clear that he would start! This one's a no for me.
Adam Wharton
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 130 (79th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 7.9 (15 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 100+ (12 Team League: Round 10)
Analysis: This one if more of a warning than anything. Last season left a lot to be desired from a player who the media has already deigned to be future England national team royalty. 7.9 PPS puts Wharton squarely under CDMs like Enzo and Casemiro. In recent mock drafts, I've seen Wharton drafted in the 8th round, and that feels just a bit too early for a player who hasn't actually proven himself in the EPL Draft fantasy game yet. In the final 12 games of the 23/24 season, Wharton failed to eclipse 6 fantasy points in half of them. However, I commend the Draft Community for not completely buying into the media hype behind the player and Glasner himself. His ADP is currently surprisingly reasonable. If you find yourself in need of a MID 3 in the 9th round of the draft or later, consider Wharton. My fear is that his ADP will start to creep up as draft day draws near.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Crystal Palace. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Eagles that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Palace's fantasy assets.
Eze Does It?
The question of the summer is this: can Eberechi Eze captain this Crystal Palace ship without Michael Olise there as his copilot? From a fantasy standpoint, I think that he can maintain his own standards and deliver on his draft day value. However, the gulf in talent left after Olise's departure will inevitably mean that some of those opportunities that he created will now go missing. And I'm unfortunately not of the mindset that Sarr or Kamara are good enough or that Wharton is at a point in his development yet to replace them. So, I think a bit of regression is inevitable from most Palace fantasy assets not named Eze. Then, if the worst-case scenario were to happen and Eze departs the club before the 24/25 season, it's red alert alarm bells for all Crystal Palace fantasy assets. It's quite literally impossible to replace those two world-class players and the fantasy points that they create for both themselves and their teammates.
The Vultures are Circling
While it seemed like quite the coup for Palace to retain the services of Oliver Glasner for the 24/25 season, one has to wonder how long they can stem the tide of interest from the world's "big clubs". If a powerhouse club is struggling for form midseason, is there a chance that Glasner leaves, taking the vast majority of his players' fantasy production with him? I hate to ask you to remember how dire things were from a fantasy football lens before he got there. Add to the the fact that Palace have any number of up-and-coming players who could be swept off at any moment should the right amount of money be thrown at them and it's enough to be a bit nervous. For now, we remain cautiously optimistic that we'll be treated to one more full year under Glasner with fantasy superstar Eze there to create on the real-life and fantasy football pitch.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Crystal Palace's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Crystal Palace kick the season off with BRF, WHU, CHE, LEI, and MUN. This fixture list, according to our fixture difficulty tracker, translates to the 5th easiest for attackers, the 2nd easiest for midfielders, and the 3rd easiest for defenders. If you've been playing EPL Draft for any number of years, this should immediately inspire a single thought in your mind: TRADE HIGH. Not only should you target Palace players in drafts, but you have a prime opportunity to deal them for a profit if they perform well early on.
Players like Eze and Munoz I would be in no hurry to trade out. However, if you get a mouthwatering offer, no player is too valuable to trade for the right price. These two, though, will be mighty hard to replace should you trade them out, especially for a position different than their own. Other players, however, are prime trade-out candidates if they get off to a blistering start. Should the goal-dependent Mateta come out of the gates firing, get yourself a more dependable asset who ghosts better. The same thing goes for Sarr, Kamada, and Wharton. We expect average PPS numbers from them. So, a hot start and trade out could be a quick way to maximize their value. And, finally, defenders other than Munoz are absolutely trade-high candidates should they start strong. Alternatively, you may want to look the way of Richards and Mitchell late in drafts just to stream them during this strong run of games. Then, after the GW8 matchup against Forest, you can decide whether it's time to trade out, drop, or keep them based on their fantasy performances. However, the early fixtures certainly make a case to draft Palace defenders and, at the very least, play them early doors in 24/25.
24/25 Crystal Palace Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Crystal Palace lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Palace's XI shaking out.
This preseason has mostly seen Glasner deploy a 3-4-2-1, though he has been known to also employ a 4-2-3-1 at times. Given Palace's softer start to the season, we may see the more attacking formation preferred in order to get the team off on the right foot. In that instance, one of the CBs will drop out in favor of another attacker (probably Kamada, Rak-Sakyi, Ayew, or Schlupp). Any of those three would be a viable streamer against lower-table competition. But as things stand, let's talk through this formation.
In the back, we'll see Andersen nailed on no questions asked. If Guehi stays and says all the right things, he likely still has a spot in this XI. If he leaves, Riad is already through the door as a ready replacement. If Guehi stays, this leaves Richards and new signing Riad to battle it out for the last spot. I expect Glasner to go with what he knows in Richards, but he could be displaced at the slightest dip in form.
Lerma and fit-again Doucoure will battle over the CDM spot. One of the two plus future phenom Wharton will account for the double-pivot, with the latter moving more into attacking roles on offense. They will be flanked by Mitchell and Munoz with a new transfer being the only threat to the former's nailed-on status.
In the attacking spear, expect to see Eze directing traffic as all play will filter through his creative vision. Alongside him will be what we expect to be a slight rotation. Plus, in the games Glasner opts for the 4-2-3-1, another spot in the attack opens up. Overall, Sarr will likely be trusted with the most games, but Kamada should rotate there and will be the first man slotted in when an extra midfield spot is utilized. Rak-Sakyi (if he stays), Schlupp, Ayew, and Franca will all push for some playtime as well. Up front, a Glasner favourite in Mateta will feature in almost every match with only an occasional cameo by Edouard.
More 24/25 Fantasy Forecasts: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Ipswich Town | Leicester City | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Southampton | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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