Draft Day Value Per Round by The Numbers

Everyone's got opinions on sleepers and breakout players before the season starts. But in this article, DraftLad will attempt to take a more numbers-based, hopefully objective approach to determining value picks for every round of your upcoming drafts. For more analysis check out our 24/25 Draft Kit and our Pricing Plans.

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101. Dominate your draft!

Fantrax Draft Day Value Picks Per Round by the Numbers

Using Average Draft Position (ADP) , Season Projections, Consensus Ranks, Sportsbooks Goals and Assists Spreads, and Expert Mock Results, DraftLad will attempt to highlight 1 player to draft per round that he thinks should out-perform their draft position. WAR is short for Wins Above Replacement, a metric meant to calculate how valuable each fantasy player is to winning your team matchups over the course of the year. The below is intended to reflect a standard scoring, Fantrax, 12 team-league stat, but adjust accordingly for your league size (round multiplied by 12 to get pick approximate pick number).

Round 1: Kevin De Bruyne, MCI, Midfielder

ADP: 14

Consensus Rank: 6

Projected Stats: 23 Games Started, 17.9 PPS, 2.3 Total WAR, 5th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: A value pick in the first round isn't a thing but KDB is as close as it gets. ADP in the 2nd round, falling to late first round in expert mocks and generally being over-disrespected due to the recency bias of being injured for half of last season. KDB may be an aging maestro, but he's still amongst the best midfielders in the world and Pep knows he makes the City team much better. He may rest more frequently every season, but even if he starts only half of City's Prem games, his PPS (projected to be #1 in the league) easily makes up for it in accruing you top 5 WAR. Not to mention if he does end up starting, say, 75% of City's Prem games, as he did just 2 seasons ago, he'd be favourite for the highest total WAR.

Round 2: Morgan Gibbs-White, NOT, Midfielder

ADP: 26

Consensus Rank: 15

Projected Stats: 35 Games Started, 11.8 PPS, 1.3 Total WAR, 15th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: MGW is often going in the 3rd round when he could, and probably should, be an early 2nd round pick. He may not be the sexiest name, nor from a big club, but he's still the set-piece monopoly & penalty-taking talisman that fills the stat sheet and starts very consistently for Forest. If Nuno is a concern, MGW actually put up 12.3 PPS after December last season and has been quite consistent over the last 2 seasons. The bookies have his goals spread at 7.25 goals an improvement from the 5 he got last year (on top of 10 assists). MGW is both a value pick in the 2nd round and one of the safer picks due to his consistent role and minutes.

Round 3: Andrew Robertson, LIV, Defender

ADP: 43

Consensus Rank: 22

Projected Stats: 28 Games Started, 11.9 PPS, 1.2 Total WAR, 17th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Once again, last season's injury seems to be biasing most fantasy managers. Robbo had started 29+ Prem games before last season, where he was injured and only started 18. His PPS was still more than respectable at 12.1, despite concerns that being a 3rd CB with Trent hogging the attacking points, would limit his potential. Many managers may be remembering the frequent Gomez starts at LB during Robbo's absence, but he's healthy now, there's a new manager, and there's no question that Robertson is their best left back. Even an average season for Robbo would provide you value in the 3rd.

Round 4: Joao Pedro, BHA, Forward

ADP: 51

Consensus Rank: 32

Projected Stats: 21 Games Started, 13.1 PPS, 1.0 Total WAR, 25th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Pedro frustrated fantasy managers last season. Often better performances off the bench, early substitutions from De Zerbi, and on-and-off injury problems. But his underlying numbers tell a very promising story if he can just stay on the field. He had 10.9 PPS but 13.0 PP90 and a whopping 14.5 xPP90! That's a very talented player, with penalties, in an explosive offense. There's a new manager at Brighton in Fabian Hurzeler, but Pedro may currently be the brightest diamond amongst the Seagull's attacking riches, so he'll surely get a good amount of starts across multiple positions this season. The bookies have him at 11.25 goals and 4.6 assists this season, an improvement on last season's 11 and 3. Even without being bullish on games started, Pedro's PPS alone could make him 2nd round value in the 4th round. And he's back fit and ready to pounce.

Round 5: Brennan Johnson, TOT, Forward

ADP: 65

Consensus Rank: 50

Projected Stats: 23 Games Started, 11.6 PPS, 0.8 Total WAR, 44th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Johnson ended the season hot, starting 10 out of the last 12 games for Spurs, with an impressive 14.2 PPS after December. If he can keep up that sort of form, and keep his starting position in the squad, he'll be a steal for fantasy managers that snag him in the 5th (or even late 4th). Brennan's main issue is competition for his preferred winger role. But Ange has begun playing Kulu as an advanced 8/10 more often, and without another attacking signing, Son may again be Spurs best option through the middle up top. If Son does play there, Brennan will be left to compete with Richarlison and Timo Werner (and Kulu) for 2 winger spots. I think he should be favored to win that battle more often than not.

Round 6: Gabriel Jesus, ARS, Forward

ADP: 81

Consensus Rank: 66

Projected Stats: 16 Games Started, 12.4 PPS, 0.7 Total WAR, 54th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: After injury issues plagued him all last season and Kai Havertz made the Arsenal 9 role all his own, many have completely written off the Brazilian forward. But Jesus is still at the club, fit, and firing in pre-season. He may not start as much as in seasons past, but he's still a talented attacker, who can play as a 9 or on the wing, in one of the best attacks in the league. If Havertz were to get hurt, or hit a rough patch, or be rotated into the midfield for easier games as he did on occasion last year, Jesus's value would immediately skyrocket. Alternatively, he could beat out Martinelli and Trossard for minutes on the LW on occasion. The bookies have him at 9.5 expected goals and 5.25 assists this coming Prem season. He had 4 and 5 last season. Backing into expected starts from his xG and xA numbers of seasons past, the bookies actually expect Jesus to play about 23 90's this season, a less conservative number than mine above. For a 6th round price, I like all that upside a lot.

Round 7: Connor Bradley, LIV, Defender

ADP: 102

Consensus Rank: 95

Projected Stats: 13 Games Started, 12.5 PPS, 0.6 Total WAR, 55th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Bradley was simply too good last season to not play at all this year. In Trent's absence, he was fantastic in both fantasy and real life. Not only did he get forward well, but the 20yo was actually far better than Trent defensively. With the Trent to midfield talk seemingly never-ending, perhaps Bradley and Trent will even get the chance to play together. Trent injury, in the midfield, rotated more by the new manager, or terribly out of form will result in chances for Bradley. His elite PPS for a defender means he's a great hold even if he doesn't start a streak of games.

Round 8: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, CHE, Midfielder

ADP: 108

Consensus Rank: 64

Projected Stats: 21 Games Started, 10.4 PPS, 0.5 Total WAR, 62nd Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Big KDH write-up in the latest transfers piece. There are a lot of bodies and moving parts in Chelsea's attack and midfield, but KDH had a fantastic season last year in the exact system Maresca is trying to implement. I think he's getting drafted 4 rounds too late on average and could be a great MID 2 for cheap.

Round 9: Harvey Elliott, LIV, Midfielder

ADP: 128

Consensus Rank: 110

Projected Stats: 15 Games Started, 10.7 PPS, 0.41 Total WAR, 78th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Speaking of upside midfielders, Elliot has a shot to have a breakthrough season. He ended last year hot, starting 5 of the last 6 games during a downturn in Szobo's form (and fitness). This season Pool have a new manager in Arne Slot, and it remains to be seen how he views the attacking midfield pecking order. He has referred to Elliot and Szobo as the 2 10's in the squad which bodes fairly well. The bookies still think Szobo has a better chance of getting more minutes (with 6 expected goals vs Elliot's 4, and the same for assists) but for a draft cost of at least 40 fewer picks (Szobo ADP is 57 now), Elliot feels a smart gamble.

Round 10: Yankuba Minteh, BHA, Forward

ADP: 148

Consensus Rank: 111

Projected Stats: 17 Games Started, 9.6 PPS, 0.2 Total WAR, 118th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Big Minteh write-up's in the first transfer piece and Genie's sleepers piece. His statistical profile looks very impressive, he's lighting up pre-season, he came on a big fee, and Brighton have a new manager without favorites yet. He's still young so there's a large range of outcomes but the good ones are quite good and you're not going to want to let this train leave the station without you on it.

Round 11: Amad Diallo, MUN, Midfielder

ADP: 136

Consensus Rank: 107

Projected Stats: 13 Games Started, 10.3 PPS, 0.3 Total WAR, 99th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Diallo has plenty of competition for starts on the United wings with Garnacho coming off a breakthrough year, Rashford possibly resurgent, and Sancho and Antony still around. But he did finish last season well (started the last 3 games), finally breaking into ETH's thoughts, and again the manager has spoken highly of him this pre-season. Not to mention the United injury problems are starting to stack up. Hojlund is out for 6 weeks and both Rashford and Antony came off limping today in pre-season. Whether Zirkzee hits the ground running or not (and thus Rashford may be needed up top) and what kind of form Rashford starts and ends the season in, will be the big determinants of how many opportunities Diallo gets this year. But the bookies are actually quite bullish on his chances, with his expected goals of 7.25 implying 21 starts or so (from .3 xG per 90)

Round 12: Harry Maguire, MUN, Defender

ADP: 146

Consensus Rank: 151

Projected Stats: 19 Games Started, 10.2 PPS, 0.5 Total WAR, 69th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Maguire has long been disrespected. But the fact of the matter is, and always has been, that he's a good fantasy defender when he starts. And at the moment he's the 2nd best fit centre back for United (behind Lisandro). New signing, 19yo Leny Yoro, will be out for 3 months after a preseason injury, and old Jonny Evans and Victor Lindelof are the only alternatives. Even when Yoro comes back he'll likely need some bedding in time, so Maguire at least rotate some. United may still end up buying another CB (i.e. De Ligt) but at the time of writing, they have not and thus Maguire should get plenty of starts and is getting drafted far too late.

Round 13: Riccardo Calafiori, ARS, Defender

ADP: ?

Consensus Rank: 143

Projected Stats: 18 Games Started, 17.9 PPS, 2.3 Total WAR, 83rd Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Calafiori was just bought by Arsenal and doesn't have an ADP yet (nor a transferred player write-up). BUT, his numbers in Serie A were excellent, particularly for a CB. 12 PPS, 8.4 GPPS, 2 goals, and 5 assists in 26 starts for Bologna. High volume on both sides of the ball plus goal involvements are all you can ask of a CB in Fantrax. Not to mention, he may actually get the chance to get even further forward in the LB role for Arsenal. The Gunners have shelled out for the impressive 22yo Italian as both a depth signing at CB and a potential competitor for a starting role at LB. He'll have to most likely compete with fit-again Jurrien Timber (and the more attacking Zinchenko or more defending Tomiyasu) but I figure he's part of the rotation at the very least. With those Gvardiol-esque CB numbers, I like taking a punt on him in the last couple of rounds.

Round 14: Jarell Quansah, LIV, Defender

ADP: 283

Consensus Rank: 150

Projected Stats: 16 Games Started, 9.5 PPS, 0.3 Total WAR, 100th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Quansah was written up by Genie in his sleepers article. While you can tell I'm far less bullish on his starts above, I think if he even starts half the EPL games, he's an excellent defensive hold, particularly with such a low ADP due to his impressive PPS (he ticked over to 10.2 PPS for the second half of the season). The more starts he gets, the more useful he becomes. Matip's gone and they haven't signed anyone else to backup VVD and Konate (Gomez is still there yes), so Quansah should get plenty of chances.

Round 15: Luis Sinisterra, BOU, Forward

ADP: 288

Consensus Rank: 160

Projected Stats: 12 Games Started, 10.8 PPS, 2.3 Total WAR, 96th Overall WAR Rank

Prospects: Also in the sleepers article. Sinisterra has the talent to compete for a starting berth on the Bournemouth wings. He just needs to keep those pesky hammies fit. Tavernier was up and down with form last year and Iraola seemed to experiment more towards the end of the season. If he wants to take another step up with the Cherries this year, he'll need to figure out how to get more out of his secondary options like Sinisterra, Enes Unal, and Alex Scott. Sinisterra has historically scored great fantasy points per 90, so any breakthrough is gold for this 15th-round pick.

The Squad

---

Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!

For all the latest from The Draft Society , follow @Draft_Society on Twitter!

And for more in-depth and exclusive resources, become a member of The Inner Circle.

---

Have you heard about our revolutionary new Draft Fantasy Football app? We call it The Fantasy ToolKit. Expand to read more!

Each gameweek, The Fantasy Toolkit will bring you:

• Recommended waiver adds & drops

• Optimal lineup suggestions

• Matchup projections

• Trade calculator

• All in one customized and personalised package

It's included in our Ultimate Pass and Season Pass plans and will give you a massive leg up on your league-mates. Check out a full demonstration video HERE for more info!