Draft Society Staff Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List 24/25

Fantasy EPL managers usually have short memories - a must given the relentless number of GWs, which provide a new shot at redemption each week - but not when it comes to some players. Hell hath no fury like a scorned manager. Whether due to past disappointment or simply not rating a particular player, here at The Draft Society, we hold grudges. We each have our own personal Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List. Below, we pull the curtain back and detail why these players will never see our draft day rosters! Please Note: This is more of a "Do Not Draft... Until Much Later Than Their Average Draft Position", but that's a much less catchy name!

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Fantasy EPL Do Not Draft List

Every manager has a player (or several), for whatever reason, who they refuse to draft and think you should consider not drafting too! These are ours...

Ryan Barnes

Pedro Neto | Forward | Wolves

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 263

23/24 Points Per Start: 13.1

This is a painful one. I really love Pedro Neto's game. He has it all - pace, dribbling, finishing, creativity, and vision. And he is a fantasy point machine. Last season he showcased that yet again, boasting 13+ PPS and averaging an attacking return every other start. He was the prolific talisman for Gary O'Neill's surprisingly good Wolves squad and has constantly been linked to a move to a top side. There's only one problem - he just can't stay fit. While he started the season like a house on fire, he only mustered 18 starts. Outside of 20/21, over the past 4 seasons, Neto has only started an average of 11 games per season. While it may sound harsh, he has unfortunately become the winger version of Reece James.

Despite all this, he is still likely to go off the draft board in the 3rd round. Given the injury risks, this is way too steep of a price to pay. As you can see above, based on the data, he has a roughly 1 out of 5 chance of starting more than a dozen games this season. That's how math works, right? Long story short, odds are he is out for much of the season and there are much better and more reliable options that early in the draft. And if he does end up being transferred to a big club like Arsenal, his prospects would be even worse as he would not be the main man or even a nailed on starter (even if fit). So while my heart - every damn season - says this is going to be his Wolverine season and he'll revert to being a top ten fantasy asset, my head and the facts say it isn't, is it?

Joe Williams

Dominik Szoboszlai | Midfielder | Liverpool

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 268.75

23/24 Points Per Start: 9.9

In terms of poor runs of form, Dominik Szoboszlai may be on one of the worst we've seen in years. At the tail end of last season, we saw him completely lose his job to various other available bodies in the Liverpool reserves. His main competition came in the form of perennial next-big-thing player, Harvey Elliott. As the chart below demonstrates, Elliott ended up besting or equaling Szoboszlai in every major category except dribbles -- Harvey is, to put it mildly, not known for his speed. Szoboszlai left for Hungary camp at the conclusion of the 23/24 Prem season, hoping to turn things around. Unfortunately, he didn't. When compared to other attacking MIDs and wingers at the Euros, he ranked in the 31st percentile in non-penalty xG, the 29th percentile in pass completion percentage, the 32nd percentile in progressive passes, the 28th percentile in progressive carries, and 10th percentile in touches in the attacking penalty area. After a short holiday, Dom recently returned to the Kirkby Training Ground desperately needing to rewrite the narrative. Harvey, meanwhile, has been there since July 5th, rubbing elbows with new manager Arne Slot.

And even if Szoboszlai does retake the starting job, unfortunately, he's still on my Do Not Draft list. I'm not sure what kind of Freaky Friday body-swap business Szobo got up to on Halloween, but that appears to have been when his terrible run of form began. From that point forward, his fantasy PPG dropped to an abysmal 5.89, putting him just behind some fantasy afterthoughts like Danilo and Keane Lewis-Potter. Before that point, his PPG was 13.3 (17th best overall). Optimists and gamblers would say, "so he has it in his locker!" Sure. But he hasn't for 10 months and shows no sign of finding it. The bottom line is this: with the level of talent in this draft, if you have to pay anything more than a 6th round pick for Szoboszlai, buyer beware.

Genie

Ollie Watkins | Forward | Aston Villa

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 498.5

23/24 Points Per Start: 13.5

Watkins had his best season so far with 20 goals and 13 assists (18 total assists in fantasy) to his name. It is worth starting off by flagging that those 18 total assists are off of an xA of just 7.3. That is quite striking, and with reverting to the mean you can expect a drop-off in his total output. With Watkins seemingly getting better each season why is he a DND for me? This is because of the very high draft pick you will need to use to get him. I do not believe Watkins is worth a first round pick, he is barely worth a top 15 pick in my opinion. If you could get Watkins near the mid-end of the 2nd round, then he might have not made this list. But based on mocks he will probably go in the first 6-10 picks.

I also think Villa as a whole will see some regression. They have just lost one of their key players in Luiz, and Diaby has also recently left for Saudi Arabia. On top of this, they will be in the Champions League next season, and you know Emery won't just put out a B/C team in that competition. The lack of depth for Villa will mean more tired legs and a worse performance in the EPL. I do not think they finish in the top 4 and will struggle to be in the top 6 even. Despite signing a few new midfielders in Barkley and Onana, I still am seeing a lack of true quality signings with Villa. While there will be some decent output from these signings, replacing Luiz and all he offered seems impossible. With all that in mind, Watkins will take a hit in his output, by how much remains to be seen.

In the first round you can get assets who have proven year on year they are consistent such as Salah and Odegaard, and are on much better teams with more depth. I would let Watkins be someone else's problem this year, and look to an asset on a different team. Even someone like Eze would be a better pick - despite being on a worse team, he less games to play and is the main man. Watkins' ghost points of just 6 per game will make him reliant on getting 30+ attacking returns again this season to make him worth a top 12 pick. While he could do this, I would rather not take that risk, especially with Villa being in the UCL for the first time. Other forwards to look for ahead of Watkins: Salah, Haaland, Son, Isak, and Diaz.

Tottiandor

Phil Foden | Midfielder | Man City

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 543.5

23/24 Points Per Start: 15.8

We have been waiting for Foden's breakout season for what seems like an eternity. It finally came last season as he helped his team to a title with 19 goals and 8 assists. These remarkable feats earned him the Premier League Player of the Season honour. His stats, general play, and reliability have truly lifted him to the level that everyone had been expected of him for the past few seasons.

So without further ado, I will dive into why he is on my 'Do Not Draft" list.

His Starts

• He has been in and around the City First XI for 5 seasons now but failed to register more than 24 starts until last season (33).

• Here are the list of attacking players to start at least 30 games for City in the last 5 years: 23/24: Foden, Alvarez; 22/23: Haaland, 21/22: Silva, 20/21: None, 19/20: KDB, Sterling

• It is clearly not Pep's plan to start attackers for 30+ games in the EPL if he can avoid it.

• If all the attackers currently on roster stay at City and we expect none to be frozen out as bad as Grealish was last season, minutes will have to be shared between Alvarez, Haaland, Foden, KDB, Silva, Grealish, Doku, Savio, and Nunes, who was ushered in as the best player Pep has ever seen and then subsequently not given minutes.

His Role and Production

• Foden has started a total of 15 games together with KDB. In the remaining starts he had, arguably, he was left to be the creative outlet for the team.

• He managed to score 19 goals from an xG of 10.32. We usually say that good players overperform their xG. For reference, Haaland overperformed his xG in his first season, by 3, and underperformed last season by 4.65.

• In fact, Foden's xG overperformance is so big that, among top players, the next highest are Palmer and Son on around 4. In 21/22, Kane and Odegaard managed to overperform by around 6. The closest overperformance in recent memory was KDB's 21/22 season, when he scored 15 goals on an xG of around 6 (he managed 14 goals on 8 xG 2 seasons prior, but other than that, his best goal output was 8).

In conclusion, barring KDB's highly unlikely Saudi exit and a bit more likely long-term injury, I expect Foden to revert back to being a super effective but rotating City attacker, with top-of-the-line WAR and PPS but only around 25 starts. That is why I will have him ranked around the end of the first round as opposed to knocking on the door of the top 3 like many others.

DraftLad

Bruno Guimaraes | Midfielder | Newcastle

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 421.5

23/24 Points Per Start: 11.4

I'm a numbers guy. In 23/24, Bruno G had a great season with 11.4 PPS, 8.5 GPPS, 7 goals, and 7 assists in 37 starts. That made him something like the 16th most valuable player in the fantasy world (based on WAR accrued in those starts). But should we expect those numbers to hold up and thus justify his ADP of around 20? I think not and here's why.

Some back of the napkin numbers first: Bruno G had around 1.9 PPS and 3 GPPS in 5 starts when Sandro Tonali started with him, compared to 13.2 and 9.7 GPPS when he did not (in 31 starts). He had 7.2 PPS and 7.0 GPPS in 12 starts when Joelinton started with him in the midfield, compared to 13.8 PPS and 9.7 GPPS when not. He also exceeded his xPP90 (expected points per 90 based on expected goals and assists) by nearly 1 whole point (11.6 PP90 vs 10.7 xPP90). In addition, he only averaged 8.5 PPS in 32 starts in 22/23.

So, what I'm suggesting is that Bruno G is more than likely to regress and not replicate his fantastic numbers from this past season. If he performs similarly and finishes at an average rate, his PPS will drop. If his positioning and output are affected by Joelinton and Tonali, who are both returning to fitness and eligibility - or even the more attacking Joe Willock (soon to be fit) - playing next to him instead of the departed Elliot Anderson, youthful Lewis Miley, or less talented Sean Longstaff, his PPS will drop. Newcastle do have the benefit of no Europe this season and may still improve their attack with new signings (although they have been stagnant in the market so far). But I'd still bet heavily against Bruno G keeping up his fantasy heroics and hence I am not touching him anywhere close to his 20th ranked ADP. Instead, projections and my ranks have him around 45th - and he'll likely be long gone by then in the draft.

RobbieP

Solly March | Midfielder | Brighton

23/24 Total Fantasy Points: 93

23/24 Points Per Start: 13.3 PPS (7 starts)

You snooze you lose as the saying goes, and I certainly did for this article, with Bruno G and Ollie Watkins the top 2 on my list of DND candidates. DraftLad and Genie have excellently captured why they should not be taken close to their current ADP so I had to move on. My next candidate is more of a classic cautionary tale of avoiding drafting a player who has just come back from a long term injury. Solly March certainly fits the bill given he had a significant knee injury that has nearly ruled him out for an entire calendar year. He was coming off the season of his life in 22/23, in which De Zerbi transformed him into a Fantrax Legend who was scoring and assisting for fun off the right wing. Going into drafts last season, expectations were high but tempered slightly, with him falling to the 2nd or 4rd round. But he started off by repaying the believers handsomely with 13.3 PPS in 7 starts until the horrendous injury.

Why the history lesson? It's necessary to give context to his current ADP of 74 and Consensus Rank of 59, which puts him firmly in Round 5 to 6 territory. This is significant draft capital and not typically reserved for someone with a questionable fitness status. Clearly there's belief there that he can get close to last season's points production at around 12 PPS, but with tempered expectation on starts at say 50%. I'm pretty skeptical of those numbers, especially given how different the landscape has become at Brighton since his injury. There is a new manager, with different tactical ideas and a bunch of very interesting young attacking players coming through, all while he is coming off a major injury. This does not scream 50% starts to me. A slow integration will also be likely, and if Yankubu Minteh claims that right forward slot, we could easily see managers dropping March within a few gameweeks if he doesn't manage a start. At Round 5/6, there are still plenty of interesting options. I would take proven players such as Alex Iwobi or Diogo Dalot over him in a heartbeat, even a punt on Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is more appealing than March. Yes, there's upside if he somehow comes good. But there's just too many risk factors given his current ADP.

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