Everton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Tom Husband
- Aug 2, 2024
- 9 min read
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview the Toffees fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Everton Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Everton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Everton Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Everton Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Everton's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Everton player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Toffees' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Everton fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
It is no surprise to see ghost point machine Dwight McNeil topping the Everton list this year, for whom last year was something of a return back to Earth following his electric form when Dyche first took over in Merseyside 18 months ago. Nevertheless, with a clean bill of health going into 24/25 and Everton looking to leave Goodison Park in style, there is no reason to doubt that a return to form is in the offing. Coming in at a close second is fellow former Burnley man, James Tarkowski, who would have been the 12th highest scoring asset last year if the recent changes to Fantrax default scoring were in play!
After these two, there is a noticeable drop off before you get to Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is projected to get 9.9 PPS, and should deliver FWD 3 value this year. He has FWD 2 potential if he remembers to pack his shooting boots, having underperformed his xG by 5.9 in 23/24. Also expected to deliver value this season are the younger half of the defence in Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitalii Mykolenko, who will be hoping to build upon last year's solid performances, which saw 13 clean sheets in the league. James Garner is projected to improve to 8.3 PPS, making him a dependable, if rather uninspiring MID 5 option. New signing Iliman Ndiaye was unable to recreate his Championship form at Marseilles, registering just 6 goal involvements in 30 appearances (19 starts), but has significantly more upside than many other late draft picks.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Everton players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Jarrad Branthwaite
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 280.25 (10th best best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 8.01 (35 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 90 - 100 (12 Team League: Round 8-9)
Analysis: Last season, Branthwaite made the left centre back spot his own at Everton, helping them on their way to a league runner up 13 clean sheets. In Fantrax, he finished the season as the 10th highest defender, and the 65th highest asset overall by total FPts. Even pricing in some regression in the cleansheet numbers, we are expecting him to have another great season. With James Tarkowski turning 32 in November, we could start to see some of his prodigious ghosting being snapped up by the young and hungry Branthwaite, and even a slight increase in Branthwaites ghosts will see him provide tremendous value in the 8th or 9th round.
Iliman Ndiaye
Position: FWD
Recommended Draft Pick: 110 - 130 (12 Team League: Rounds 10-11)
Analysis: The last time that Ndiaye was in England, he was electric in Sheffield United's promotion from the Championship, scoring 14 and providing 11 assists. This was followed by a disappointing season at Marseilles, with only 6 G/A, although it should be noted that during his time as a Blade, Ndiaye was playing as a second striker, whereas Marseilles played him largely on the wings and at attacking midfield. This year, Ndiaye is predicted to return to the second striker role, which last year was performed with startling mediocrity by Doucoure. Renewed form could see him provide good value anywhere past the 10th round. But this does come with the caveat that it depends on him staying centrally, with all signs from pre-sesason looking good on this account.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Goodison Park. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Everton players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Abdoulaye Doucoure
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 255 (42nd best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 8 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 150 - 160 (12 Team League: Rounds 13 -14)
Analysis: This was a year of regression for Doucoure, following his solid 9.4 PPS in 22/23 that saw him taken off the board at around the 7th-8th round mark going into 23/24. Part of the reason for this may be that due to personnel changes at Everton last year, not least the sale of Alex Iwobi to Fulham, he moved up the pitch into the second striker role where he struggled to have as much of an impact in games. Following the sale of Onana to Aston Villa, and the purchase of attacker Iliman Ndiaye, I am expecting to see Doucoure return to the centre of the park. From this position we can expect to see less goal-scoring threat from Doucoure, as his expected goals last year were over triple his next best year at Everton, and we could see a return to his form from 2020-2022 when he scored less than 7 points per game. Whilst I do think that Doucoure has some upside as a late round pick, this depends on us seeing another purple patch a la 22/23. I think that it is just as likely that he will be seen on waivers by the first International break.
Any of the Right Backs
Position: DEF
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: More than not recommending drafting these players, I would steer well clear of streaming them if I had any other choice. On first glance this seems to be a very cheap way to get a part of a defence that conceded the 4th fewest goals in the league on their way to 13 clean sheets last year. Unfortunately that fails to take into account that the right back room at Goodison Park is filled with the elderly, the decrepit, and the Nathan Patterson. The pick of the bunch last year was Ashley Young with a nausea-inducing 5.3 PPS (5.7 with the new scoring changes) and at 39 years of age, I cannot see him improving markedly, if at all, on these results in the coming season.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Goodison Park. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Toffees that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Everton's fantasy assets.
Can Dyche address the lack of goals?
Last season Everton scored just 40 goals, which was the second lowest in the league, only ahead of a Sheffield United team who looked like they had forgotten every core tenet that makes up the beautiful game. The issues were not so much in chance creation, as they compiled a total xG of 54 (12th highest in the league). It is unsurprising that this underperformance is by far the worst seen last year. This season, the hope is that with the addition of Ndiaye to the attacking lineup, Everton's finishing will progress to the mean. However, if their strikers keep misfiring at a rate that would make Nicolas Jackson blush, then it will quickly become difficult for Everton to progress up the table.
Can McNeil bring the magic?
It is impossible to write an article about Everton without mentioning the mercurial McNeil, who has been a shining light in a sea of mediocrity around him since his early Burnley days. Flying high off the best run of his life in the post Lampard section of the 22/23 season, he unfortunately got injured in preseason, causing him to start his first match of the year in GW5 against Arsenal. And he never fully recovered his prior year form, losing a lot of the consistency that made him so popular in previous seasons, including a spell from late December to mid February where he averaged just 4.3 PPG. There were glimmers of hope, though, and McNeil ended the season with a very respectable 10.7 PPS.
McNeil is going into the new campaign with the left midfield spot nailed down, and a full preseason to prepare for the beginning of the season. This is the most settled Everton side that we have seen for a while, having ended the season in strong form to escape a points deduction fueled relegation that seemed on the cards at points. And with Calvert-Lewin actually fit (although this is, of course, subject to change), McNeil will have a strong target for crosses from his wand of a left foot from the start of the season. All of the pieces are in place for a truly resurgent season from McNeil, and the only question remaining is which version of him we see next year.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Everton's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Everton's first 5 games are a mixed bag, and Sean Dyche's boys will be confident in picking up some early points as they look to improve to a mid-table final standing. They host a new look Brighton and Hove Albion in their first match, which will be Fabian Hurzeler's first competitive game in charge. I would start most Everton attacking assets that week but would stay clear of the central midfielders and defenders not named Tarkowski who will likely be a set and forget player this year. In the games away to Spurs and Aston Villa things look bleak for Everton on the pitch, but neither of these teams are renowned for their defensive impenetrability, and I would start assets such as Iliman Ndiaye and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. But other than the aforementioned Tarkowski and McNeil, any other rostered Toffees should be riding the bench for weeks 2 and 4. The prospects look greater in the games against Bournemouth and Leicester, though, where I would start any Everton assets held, and would consider streaming the likes of Harrison if he is starting.
24/25 Everton Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Everton lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Everton's XI shaking out.
Barring any late additions to the squad, we are expecting Everton to line up very similarly to how they did last season. The notable exception to this is the signing of Iliman Ndiaye, who is expected to play behind the striker, forcing Abdoulaye Doucoure deeper into midfield, with Idrissa Gueye potentially starting in the more difficult games to provide further defensive stability. It is something of a dice roll at right back. With Nathan Patterson currently out, Seamus Coleman has been getting the majority of preseason minutes there, with Ashley Young deputising at left back.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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Why isn't Harrison in the player projections?