Valuing a player and being willing and able to spend the required draft capital to get said player is a different matter altogether. Here is a list of Fantasy EPL players the TDS staff would love to roster but likely won't be able to. Please Note: This is based more on these players going earlier than we're comfortable with rather than not wanting to draft them regardless of ADP/when they are being drafted.
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Fantasy EPL Players TDS Analysts Love But Can't Draft
As opposed to the Do Not Draft List, we love these guys. We just don't think we can get them at value. Here is the Fantasy EPL Players TDS Analysts Love But Can't Draft List. We're not into the whole brevity thing.
Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | Ryan Barnes
He's a two-face. Like Jerry's girlfriend in the famous Seinfeld episode who was gorgeous one day and not so much the next, you just never know which version of Ollie Watkins is going to appear. After bursting on the scene in 21/22, going undrafted in some leagues, he was the perfect foil for the swashbuckling Jack Grealish - those were heady days - and finished 7th in total scoring with a mouthwatering 12 PPS. The following season, however, he fell off, dropping to 40th in fantasy points. This past season was a tale of two halves, with the young Englishman struggling under Stevie G, then resurging after the inspired appointment of new manager Unai Emery. From the start of the season until Emery's first game, Watkins was 39th in scoring, with 7.9 PPG. After the Spaniard took the reins, he was 19th, with 12 PPG.
Judging from his ADP, many managers see him going from strength to strength, parlaying that run of form into a campaign more reminiscent of that of 20/21. There are certainly good arguments for that. Watkins also is one of the fittest and nailed-on forwards in the league - starting 37, 33, & 36 games, respectively, the past three seasons. However, the onset of European football and opposition managers figuring out Emery pose threats. The enigmatic nature of Watkins - as noted above - also invokes fears of another potential drop-off. No one is without risk, it's just that early/mid second round seems too high. He should be a great asset, but that's unfortunately too rich for my blood.
Luke Shaw | Manchester United | Draft Genie
The Man Utd left back is a Genie favourite; I have believed in Luke Shaw and his future at United for as long as I can remember. He has been one of the mainstays on Rigged FC, especially when I was able to get him in the late rounds, but it now seems like the whole fantasy world is starting to believe in him as well. Shaw seems to have made the LB spot his own under Ten Hag, with only Malacia providing cover for the English star. Unless there is an injury issue, I would expect Shaw to start 30+ games this season. Shaw started 30 games last season with a 9.3 PPS, a score boosted by clean sheets in 12/30 of his starts. Shaw also offers a decent ghost point base of 8.3/start.
The United LB is considered a secondary elite defender and will probably go around the 3rd and 4th rounds this summer. As much as I believe he is worth that capital, I'm just never one to take a defender early. If Shaw slipped to me near the end of the 5th/6th I would take him, but I like to have at least 4 attackers on my roster before I take a defender. I do think Shaw will offer great set-and-forget value, but his mixed schedule to start the season has me thinking that he will be easier to acquire through trade. United could concede in all five of their first games, and if that happens Shaw and any other United defender should be significantly cheaper than they were during the draft. Shaw only managed 1 goal and 2 assists last season and hasn't gotten more than 6 returns in a season, so it seems fair to project he will finish with roughly 3-5 returns again this year. The 8th best defender deserves to be taken in the 4th round as he will be, but unfortunately it goes against my tried-and-tested draft strategy to take a defender that high up during the draft.
Bruno Guimaraes | Newcastle | Gavin Wright
The signing that started the Newcastle resurgence into motion, Bruno G is one of the most aesthetically pleasing footballers to watch play in the league. He's among the Magpies' chief creative outlets, which is a rarity for a player deployed as a holding midfielder, but such is the Brazilian's vision and quality of passing that he doesn't necessarily need to be close to the opposition penalty area to be an attacking threat. With Sandro Tonali arriving this summer, there are some suggestions that Guimaraes could be pushed further forward as more of an 8 than a 6, which would likely see him translate more of his statistics into attacking points. What's not to like?
Well, for starters, there's no guarantee that a move into a more attacking role will materialize. Additionally, Newcastle now have the small matter of Champions League football to contend with. As I mentioned in my Newcastle team preview, the team's progression has come too quickly for them to build adequate depth in their squad, so their star players will either be called upon to shoulder the burden of additional fixtures or will face more rotation. In the case of either fatigue or fewer starts, we're looking at a less advantageous situation for Bruno and the rest of the Magpies as the season wears on.
Beyond predictions of regression in starts/minutes, I've also never really understood the appeal of Guimaraes as a midfielder worthy of drafting in the first 4 or 5 rounds. His current ADP is at least lower than the 41 it was heading into last season on the back of his first half-season in black-and-white and an 8.7 PPG average. To be fair, he did have a purple patch near the end of the season where he delivered 4 goals and an assist in a six-game stretch. Recency bias or not, there isn't a similar patch of form to look fondly on from 22/23. The Brazilian managed 4 goals and 5 assists across the whole of the last campaign, a good return from his position, but not what you're hoping for from a player you take in the first quarter of the draft.
Looking through his weekly scores reveals a player who is much more likely to bring you 6 points than 16. His median points per start from the 22/23 season is 6.0, meaning a few big scores are responsible for skewing perceptions for the type of fantasy asset you're getting. He only managed two double-digit returns last season in games where he didn't score or assist, so he's not likely to bring you too many ghost points, either (6.4 gPPS last season). Bruno G is an exceptional player and vital to Newcastle's success, but many more options can offer greater fantasy output that are below his current ADP.
Luis Diaz | Liverpool | Tottiandor
God, I love Luis Diaz! I was slow to get on the train as it was difficult to let go of a former love, Mané. As Diaz's signing from FC Porto was confirmed, I was vocal about being cautious about getting him given Klopp typically integrates players slowly. Gosh, I was wrong. He hit the ground running that spring and I fell in love. No wonder I tried to grab him at the middle/end of the first round in any league I could last season.
Then last season happened. After starting the first 6 games and only getting double digits in the 2 he scored in, he was finally benched against Brighton. He came on for a largely uneventful cameo and started the next game against Arsenal but didn't even last until halftime. A knee injury left him out of commission from the 9th of October. His next start came (after 3 sub appearances) on the 30th of April. During the time out he had 2 separate setbacks with his knee injury. He had 4 starts after his return until the end of the season and recorded only one 10+ Fantrax score (in the game he scored). Best to write off the season.
While I love Diaz, when doing ranks and evaluating players I have to try to stay as unbiased as possible. A lot has changed since the last time Diaz was preparing for pre-season with Liverpool. His arrival signaled a slight change in tactics from the old Salah-Bobby-Mané triumvirate, but Nunez and Gakpo, along with a full midfield reset, have resulted in a different landscape when trying to assess Liverpool forwards. The signings of Nunez and Gakpo, both of whom can operate from the left-wing (although so far have been preferred centrally), have increased competition for places, while Jota, who had a similarly injury-ravaged season as Diaz, has proven that he can be the clinical finisher and game changer Diaz has yet to become.
While I do think Diaz-Gakpo-Salah will be the "first choice" or "preferred" front three, I also believe that these three won't be starting together in more than 10 games. The potential recurrence of injuries and rotation are the reasons why, although I love Diaz, I probably won't be able to draft him this season.
Martin Odegaard | Arsenal | Joe Williams & Draft Lad
Joe: As you know, Draft Lad, I was lucky enough to have rostered Ode last season. Undeniably, his first season as an official, bona fide Gunner was a raving success. Arsenal recognized his contributions and on-field presence by swiftly giving him the captain's armband. It's a match made in footballing heaven. Fantasy managers like me were equally smitten with Odegaard.
Draft Lad: Absolutely, I fully agree. Odegaard and Arsenal had a fantastic fantasy season, there's no denying it. He was 8th in overall fantasy points, 6th in total WAR. He scored 13.2 PPS in 37 starts with 9 goals and 11 assists. So, it seems reasonable that he would be drafted around 9th overall this season, as his ADP suggests? At face value, yes. But looking further, I tend to think not.
Joe: 100%, but before you jump into stats, of which I'm sure you have a plethora, let me give the vibes take. With Ode, I had a nagging feeling all season that I should trade high. He is an absolute stud; don't get it twisted. But there are games in which he fades into the background a bit, as will happen when the rest of his teammates can kill off a match even when he is having an off day. After several key matches, I couldn't shake the feeling that I'd gotten away with one as Odegaard bagged a late assist or goal to salvage a measly 3-5 point outing. Remember how it became a running joke in our TDS group chat that I would complain about Ode's lack of points only to see him score mere minutes later?
Draft Lad: I definitely remember you complaining about him... a good bit. But vibes aside, I think you and I are generally in agreement. His xPPS (expected points per start) was 12.0 and his median PPS was 10.5 compared to his 13.2 PPS. He had a 40% GACS reliance and a 10% set piece reliance (in taking 20% of Arsenal's sets while starting). For the coming season I see nearly all those stats coming down.
Joe: That 40% reliance on goals, assists, and clean sheets highlights why I was lamenting those 3-5 point performances until he would score or assist. For reference, fantasy midfielders who had a better ghost point average include Fernandes, March, Maddison, KDB, H. Traore, Olise, JWP, McNeil, Joelinton, Grealish, and Benrahma.
Draft Lad: And with fewer goals and assists, as I expect to happen, Ode's GACS % will be even more glaring. The oddsmakers have his over/under at 9 goals and 7.5 assists. His PPS will likely also come down (as his xPPS suggests) not only due to the xG+xA overperformance but also due to a slightly deeper role.
Joe: So, he overperformed both xG and xA, which is probably why I felt I was pushing my luck with him last season. But in terms of the slight regression and your concerns about his role, is that because of Arsenal's transfer business, Champions League rotation, a change in tactics, or what?
Draft Lad: All of the above. A lot of it may have to do with fewer expected starts; Arsenal have brought in Kai Havertz, largely to play next to Odegaard, but with Arsenal in the Champions League this season I think it's logical to expect some rotation for Ode, particularly with the added depth in attack. Trossard has been trialed pretty successfully as an attacking 8 this preseason, Vieira is one year senior, and Smith-Rowe is coming off an impressive U-21 campaign for England. I think a repeat of 37 starts is totally out of the question. Havertz is far more of an attacker than Xhaka ever was, and I think as a result Odegaard will need to act as a counterweight at times, playing closer to the 6 (Partey or Rice) than the 9. Havertz has seen the most success in his career as a second striker, so he'll likely be more involved in those spaces where Ode often found the most success last season.
Joe: Yikes. So where does this leave us?
Draft Lad: Don't get me wrong. I love Ode, I think he'll be a good to great fantasy prospect. I just think first round is pushing it and I will not be going there.
Joe: Precisely. His ADP at the moment is too rich for my blood, as I'd rather have players like Jesus, Trippier, Rashford, Grealish, or Son at that point in the first round. Ode is absolutely worthy of a second rounder and I would be elated to have him there. But as your round one pick, I think his quiet matches will frustrate many a fantasy manager.
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