Welcome to Genie's Corner for Gameweek 16! Here, I, (DraftGenie), will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season.
Genie's Corner Gameweek 16
Check out this weekly dive into the mind of our mercurial Fantrax EPL manager and analyst Draft Genie! Each week he provides his thoughts on strategies, players to watch, trades to push for, and much more!
New Manager Bounces?
Southampton
Saints recently fired their manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after what many will say has been a disappointing start to the year. Saints are currently in the relegation zone, and haven't shown enough fight in games to prove they deserve to stay up in the EPL. A lot of fans have been calling for the sack for some time. It seems Ralph simply ran out of ideas with Southampton. Who is going to replace him? Not confirmed but there are rumours of Luton Town's manager Nathan Jones stepping in. He has done a great job in the Championship and will be eager to prove he can manage with the best. I do expect a new manager bounce especially post World Cup, when the new manager will have time to work with the majority of his players. Most of the Saints squad won't be headed to the World Cup, which gives them more time to gel. It is worth gambling on some lower ball offers and picking up some poor performers, or upside players with less usage under Ralph. Che Adams and Ward-Prowse are my top two trade targets from this team. Edozie, Djenepo, Stuart Armstrong, and Aribo are all worth adds off your FA pool to hold over the World Cup period to see the new look Saints come the Christmas period. It is worth noting that Nathan Jones is not a very attack minded manager so those pickups are pure speculation on a new manager bounce, but are probably not long term assets. Long term the defence probably gets a boost in their cleansheets making Salisu, Perraud, and Bella-Kotchap great streaming options during a good run for the Saints.
Aston Villa
Unai Emery is at the wheel now, and he firmly marked his return to the EPL with a 3-1 win over United. It was a pretty convincing win as well, but United were horrible that day. I do have a bit more optimism about Villa after that display especially attacking wise. I still don't think any of their defenders are going to be more than elite streamers (yes even the beloved Digne), but their attacking assets start to appeal a bit more. They looked direct to goal, and instead of sitting back vs. United they went to sink them and increase the margin. I'm most excited to see how Leon Bailey fits into this team. Someone with all the potential and upside, but seriously lacks the fitness. If he can stay healthy and hit a purple patch he could be one of the best waiver wire adds/buy low targets of the season. Watkins should continue to improve as well. It is not too long ago he was being drafted in the early 2nd round, while I doubt he reaches those incredible heights again, I wouldn't be surprised to see him offer high-end FWD2 value under Emery. Coutinho is set for an extended spell on the sideline through injury, which means Buendia will get his chance to proves he deserves the attacking role, but I also expect McGinn to fight him for it. McGinn is not worth picking up unless you see him in the XI. I don't see Buendia as more than a MID5/6 and would try to sell him on the hype of Emery, and the Coutinho injury to another manager. He just isn't the same asset as he was in those incredible Norwich days.
Wolves
Another relegation fighter with a manager change. Wolves have hired Julen Lopetegui as their new manager, but it still remains to be seen what his best XI is. He is missing a few players through injury/suspension right now so we may not know his best XI until a few gameweeks post World Cup. Again I expect another uptick in performances from what has been one of the most toothless teams in the EPL. It remains to be seen what lies ahead for fantasy darling Adama, with him already being in and out of the XI. I'm not eager to trade him in, happy to trade him out/hold to see what happens though. The likes of Podence, Guedes, Costa, Hwang, Jimenez will all get their moments but I am really not keen on any of them for fantasy, past being a solid streamer. While I said I expect more goals from Wolves, I just think these players will be more of a headache than reward and it is worth dropping/shipping them out on the hype. Neves has probably been Wolves best asset this season, and I am happy to take a gamble on him as a MID5 if you can get him on the cheap given he is also on penalties. It remains to be seen if the defence will improve, but they are seriously missing Saiss and Coady. I expect a new CB to be bought in Jan, and am eager to see how the fullback situation shapes out. There could be some upside plays in the likes of Semedo and Ait-Nouri after the World Cup. I'm not sure they are worth a hold, but if they are available when the EPL resumes at that point they may be worth a pickup if they start. vs. Everton on Boxing Day.
Chelsea Assets
Future Prospects
So far Chelsea have not really looked much better, if at all under Potter than under Tuchel. The attack looks lifeless, defence a mess, and midfield relies on Jorginho dropping a 10/10 each week. It is just not looking good. The only thing that can be considered a silver lining is how many of their current starters are on the sidelines. The likes of Kante, Reece James, Chilwell, Fofana, and Kepa are all missing. Kovacic and Koulibaly are also in and out of the lineup with minor injuries. These are a ton of players who will make the difference defensively and offensively. Arguably their best 2 players in Reece and Kante have been missing for most of the season. Reece will be back soon after the World Cup, but Kante may not get more than 2-5 starts over the rest of the season. He is out for at least another 3 months and is out of contract this summer.
I do think Chelsea start to improve, but I am not sure by how much. Sure there may be a few more clean sheets, maybe a few more goals, but their playstyle as a whole leaves a lot to be desired. Potter needs to really get this attack into gear to have them push top 6. Mount has been appalling bar 2 decent games, Sterling hasn't had a shot in over 3 EPL games, Kai and Auba are, well self-explanatory. A lot of these players really need to be dropped from the XI given their performances, and the likes of Ziyech, Pulisic, Broja, and Gallagher need a serious go in this squad. Will that happen? No. So we are left with overhyped big name players trying to figure it out. This is not something I am very excited about. We all know how little I value Mount and Sterling in Fantrax, and we'll get into that in a bit. I do expect improvement, but in terms of fantasy, I am not going crazy bringing in these guys on the super cheap expecting top 20 player value.
Buy Low
Reece James, that is all. Seriously, he is legit the only Chelsea player I am keen to trade in right now. He is their best attacker (and that says a lot), and should be back post World Cup barring a set back. He will provide a bit more life in that attack and better service for Auba, Kai and Sterling. He could have DEF1 upside under Potter, and given the abysmal set-piece deliveries I expect him to command quite a few of them as well. If you can get him for DEF2 value then please do. He is also discussed heavily in this week's trade advice article.
Sell Low/Drop
Now the tough part. I seriously want little to no part of: Kai and Auba, Auba is droppable unless you are desperate for a forward, even then I think I'd rather stream Ayew and Bobby Reid each week. Kai has been better than we thought so maybe you can get some trade value for him in a bigger package. Mount, is not going to get much better if at all, and there are a lot of calls for him to be dropped. He really doesn't offer much. Sterling has been absolutely awful but seems a lock in the XI for Potter unless its a "B" team he puts out. The reason I say sell low is because I think these players get even worse, and there is no point suffering through it. If you can get 75% of draft day value for Mount or Sterling that is the steal of the year, but I would happily settle for 60-70% just to rid myself of them. I would drop the following players: Chalobah, Kovacic, Cucurella, Koulibaly, and Jorginho, there are better streamers else where.
Gameweek 16 Advice
The Rise of Mitoma
Mitoma straight up can ball. Dude knows how to play the sport, and much credit to the Brighton scouting team for finding this exciting talent. At only 25 he still has a good chunk of his career to go, and I expect this is only the beginning. He has made quite the impact for Brighton off the bench since his arrival, and for the first time received back to back starts recording an assist and a goal in them. Mitoma adds another dimension to an already exciting Brighton attack, and plays like he is fearless. He will take on anyone and everyone no matter where on the pitch, and has great vision. In fantasy Mitoma has looked like he can be the real deal if minutes come his way. I really think he offers MID3 value this season, but also am not opposed to selling high. The hype is insane for this guy and he deserves all the praise, but I'm sure someone in your league will bite and give you some top assets for Mitoma especially if he gets another 10+ score vs. Villa (which he should). Look to sell high during the World Cup break, or if not enjoy watching and rostering this new talent.
Leicester Defence is Back?
Leicester have only conceded 1 goal in their last 5 games and it was vs. Manchester City courtesy of a KDB special. This team is finally starting to perform well, and I don't think Rodgers will be excited about this World Cup break given their form. A month or so ago on the Key Pass Collective podcast I remember backing Rodgers to turn both offence and defence around dramatically and boy has he ever. Most Leicester defenders have become worth rostering, and Ward should be considered a near top goalie streamer given his high shot volume and much improved form. Castagne and Justin are probably gone in most leagues, but Wout Faes is definitely worth an add. Amartey unfortunately is not, but with Evans back soon once he cracks the XI I like him as an add. Ndidi is also back in the mix to help solidify the defence and anchor the midfield so I do really expect this form to continue and isn't just a blip.
Will United Bounce Back?
United suffered nothing short of an embarrassing defeat against relegation contenders Aston Villa. They didn't really have many glimpses of goal and it could of been an even worse scoreline. As much hate as people give him for some weird reason?? Bruno was dearly missed this game, his work-rate is second to none both offensively and defensively and his leadership was also missed. I think this game proved to all the doubters more than anything, that Bruno is one of the best midfielders in the EPL, and his key role to United, on and off the ball. Bruno will be back for the matchup against Fulham so I am expecting a much much better United performance. Fulham are a strong team, so the result could go either way, but I am expecting a much better game. The defence will be missing Dalot but that means another start for Maguire. Wan-Bissaka is far from trusted this year so it is either Lindelof or Malacia at RB, but I do lean Lindelof with Maguire at CB. Defensively United will look to counter the aerial threat of Mitrovic with Maguire, as he is a significant upgrade over Lindelof in the air. I expect a much better attacking display either with one of Antony/Martial starting with Rashford Ronaldo and Bruno. Ronaldo has been the scapegoat for his poor attitude, but cannot be blamed for that Villa loss, so I am backing another start on the weekend. I think this was just a blip in the road for ETH, every team has them and the race for Top 4 is very much on. I'm not panicking on any United asset (other than Sancho), and wouldn't make rash trade outs.
Konate vs. Matip vs. Gomez - Are Any Worth it?
The centre back battle is fully on at Liverpool with Matip, Konate, and Gomez all having bright moments, but more blunders this year. In my opinion Konate is currently the frontrunner to lock his place with VVD in the XI, but we all know how injury prone he is. If he can stay fit he can finally prove why he was considered the long term partner for Van Dijk. Gomez has had good moments but has proven he really isn't much better than an elite squad player if Liverpool really want to consider themselves a top 2 team. Matip is ageing, and I really think he is past his prime, he has been mediocre when called upon, and I expect him to be Klopp's go to man in big games and in the UCL, but I do expect Konate (if fit) to get the majority of starts. I am not willing to roster Gomez or Matip at all unless I see them in the XI, they are not worth stashes or holds even over the World Cup. If Konate is available he is definitely worth a pickup given his recent double digit outing (without a clean sheet), vs. Spurs and a friendly matchup vs. Saints this weekend. Liverpool need to turn this season around and quick, and Konate's recent display will give Klopp some defensive hopes there.
Genie's Streamers
As we approach the final week before the World Cup here are some streamers to help you win.
Brennan Johnson vs. Crystal Palace - A Genie favourite to start the season has been a huge disappointment in fantasy and reality. He looked a new man in the draw vs. Brentford and looks like the recent benchings did him some good. He was a lot more direct to goal and pushed the play with his pace as opposed to looking uninvolved and timid. He is worth a stream as a FWD3 in a decent matchup.
Cesar Azpilicueta vs. Newcastle - Azpi managed 13 ghost points in the loss to Arsenal and is well worth a stream despite Newcastle being in form. Chelsea are so inconsistent so this can go either way, but at RWB/RB, he offers some upside in attack and will surely be busy on the defensive side. I can't see a clean sheet unless Kepa is fit but if they manage it a 15+ score is possible.
Jordan Ayew vs. Nottingham Forest - Ayew has been a very solid streamer this season, and offers decent streamer value in a friendly matchup. He might be involved in the attack and get himself a return, but surely will fill up the stat sheet as per usual. FWD3 level.
Tyler Adams vs. Spurs - Adams has been very consistent in recent weeks, and will have a very busy matchup against a Spurs team reliant on their midfield. I expect a solid 6-10 points from him, but given the plethora of chances Spurs give up you never know if he can nick a return. A solid MID5 this weekend.
Tyrick Mitchell vs. Nottingham Forest - An upside DEF3 play. Should be able to get forward vs. Nottingham Forest and a clean sheet is more than possible here. I would start him over the other Palace defenders this week, given his ability to get an assist from crosses.
Harry Maguire vs. Fulham - Most likely given a start to combat Mitrovic. A great display vs. West Ham then was shockingly dropped in the loss vs. Villa. I think he is given another chance, and will be pushing to prove he is ready to start for Southgate at the World Cup with a great display. DEF3 this weekend even if United don't keep a clean sheet, he should rack up the defensive stats.
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