Welcome to Genie's Corner for Gameweek 3! Here, I, (DraftGenie), will be providing you with my thoughts on all things draft! Each segment of Genie's Corner will focus on something specific and relevant to current events in the Draft Fantasy EPL world. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will know I tend to take a bold and differential approach to the draft game, which has led to many fantasy titles. In these articles I will be giving you my unique insights, bold takes, sage advice, and much more throughout the season.
Genie's Corner Gameweek 3
Check out this weekly dive into the mind of our mercurial Fantrax EPL manager and analyst Draft Genie! Each week he provides his thoughts on strategies, players to watch, trades to push for, and much more!
I'm 0-2 - Am I destined for last?
Many managers are surely off to that dreaded 0-2 start. I even find myself staring at an 0-2 record in half my leagues. The only thing worse can be going 0-3...Luckily, it is a long season. There have been quite a few times when I have started a league 0-3 or 0-4 and gone on to win the league. One season I even started 0-5 and ended up winning the league by 3+ wins and the most FPts by more than 200. Again, it is a long season and now is not the time to panic. Obviously, factors such as injuries, playing a high scoring team, unexpected rotation or your stars not delivering will all be part of the equation here. If you are 0-2, it will be an even bigger mistake to sell some of your big names that haven't performed yet. The likes of Rashford, Bruno, Grealish, and Son haven't really gotten off to the dream start you would have hoped for from your first or second round pick. With players like these now is not the time to "panic sell" but that doesn't mean I am telling you they are must-holds. If you do think your team is suffering and relying on Rashford to get 20+ points each week is your only hope of winning, then I would look to ship out for more depth.
Being 0-2 will mean not holding on as long to players that just aren't going to help you. As a Brooks stan this summer, if I see him benched again against Spurs I am dropping him. Avoid the sunk cost fallacy. Despite him being my 9th rounder and having taken him over some assets who are much better now, I am willing to drop and not just hold because I "invested" a lot of draft capital into him. This is a line of thinking too many managers fall into. Fellow analyst @Drafterthoughts is someone who is a believer that too many managers fall into this trap! You are digging yourself a bigger hole long term by holding onto these non-starting assets on mediocre teams as opposed to churning your roster week to week. Being 0-2 isn't the time to exercise patience on ALL your assets -- especially the ones taken in the latter part of the draft -- despite whatever emotional attachment you have to them. Of course, patience with your big names who have proven year in and year out they can deliver is more than acceptable. Holding on to those secondary assets, though, will cause you to miss out on good pickups on the waiver wire. The first 5 weeks of the season are arguably the most key in picking up assets that are set for a good year. People will look to get those guys who are performing well NOW and reap the benefits. It is not the time to panic with your 0-2 record, but it is the time to actively look at your roster and cut ties with players simply holding down your sinking ship.
How to execute a win-win 2:1 trade
The 2:1 trade is a commonly discussed feat, with majority of managers seemingly preferring to be on the "1" side. The logic behind that is getting in the better asset and having an extra roster spot to work with, which logically sounds about right. Although, as discussed in last week's article, sometimes being on the receiving end of a 2:1 trade will help you in the long run more than that free roster spot can. Adding in an extra reliable asset that isn't from the waiver wire can go a long way to strengthening your team. I think the sweet spot is finding a manager that has "too many" reliable/talented assets in one position and trying to get 2 of his very good players for 1 of your "better". On the flip side, you can look for a manager seriously struggling for midfield or forward starters/depth and offer them 2 quality assets for one of their better ones.
I'll give you an example of this win-win scenario: Last week, I made a trade with a manager giving up both Foden and Ward-Prowse for Maddison. On value I am significantly overpaying, but when you look at our respective rosters, it was a win-win. My midfield is now made up of: Bruno, Bowen, Maddison, Andreas, Giles, Nunes, and Brooks. The other manager really only had Maddison, and was hoping for one of Barnes or Hamed to come good. Given that I can only start 5 mids per week (and still have depth at forward so may only need to start 4 midfielders some weeks) I thought I was better off overpaying for one midfielder who can potentially be a top 3 player as opposed to keeping two top 15 midfielders, and having a benchmare where someone I didn't start put up a huge score. On the flipside, the manager receiving Foden and Ward-Prowse can now rely on their two solid midfield assets and only really need one of Barnes, Hamed or their streamer mids to provide value each week. This is the perfect example of how to execute a win-win trade where both sides are happy, regardless of the "imbalance" of players exchanged.
Gameweek 3 Trade Advice
Trade Ins:
- Marcus Rashford (Manchester United, FWD) - Not just Rashford, but United as a whole, have looked woeful the first two games. Ten Hag has insisted on using Rash in the middle, which just isn't the optimal solution. With Hojlund now back in the squad and Martial fit, I expect we'll start to see plenty of Rashford appearances on the left wing. Rashford is at his best when he gets the ball on the touchline, can beat his man, cut in and make something happen, whether it be through crosses or shots. With scores of 8 and 5 in his first two matches, the manager who took Rashford in round 1 is probably getting a little frustrated. While he won't come cheap with Forest next up, now is the best time to get him in. I would look to offer a FWD2 such as Jota or Sterling packaged with a MID4 such as Jensen, Nunes, or Rice to try to get in Rashford. Throwing in 10-20 FAB may help get it over the line.
- Fabian Schar (Newcastle, DEF) - Newcastle have had a very tough start to their campaign schedule-wise, but it will turn friendly very soon. Schar was immense last year, both in reality and fantasy. He hasn't really been all that so far this season, but with Brentford, Sheffield United, Burnley, West Ham, Palace, and Wolves all lined up just after the break, he could be in for quite the run. Schar is at an all-time low, and I'm sure with Liverpool and Brighton on the horizon managers may be looking to sell. I would look to offer a combination of FAB + a DEF3 in a deal for Schar. A combination such as Gvardiol plus 5-7 FAB might tempt a manager.
Trade Outs:
- Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth, FWD) - Solanke has had a very good start to the season with a goal and an assist across the first two games. He was being drafted as a FWD3 by many managers and they have been rewarded in the early parts of the season. Solanke is one of the few forwards nearly guaranteed 90 minutes each week, as well as being on penalty kick duties. I am not saying Solanke is at his highest; in fact, I think he might have a great year and be the perfect FWD3 with FWD2 upside. I do think, however, with the amount of high upside players that have struggled to start the year, he is the perfect player to sell to try and get one of them in. The likes of Sterling, Son, Rashford, and Jackson are all players I would target. You probably can't get them 1:1 for Solanke in any league, but if you offered Solanke + a MID3 it might get someone thinking, especially if they are 0-2. A deal such as Solanke + Enzo + 15 FAB for Jackson is more than doable in my eyes.
- Antony (Manchester United, FWD) - Antony is well on his way to making himself the worst RW in the Premier League this season. He has been nothing short of horrific, and there is every chance he gets dropped sooner rather than later. Antony has offered nothing besides hitting the post vs. Spurs this year. Fans and Ten Hag are getting frustrated and with Hojlund back soon there is a good chance he starts to enter into a rotation with Sancho. Ahead of the Forest game is the perfect time to try and get back somewhat decent value for him. Despite it seeming like a "downgrade" based on draft picks, I would give up Antony for any of: Neto, Enzo Fernadez, or Joao Pedro right now. If a manager won't take a 1:1 I wouldn't hesitate in throwing in some FAB or a DEF3/MID5 to seal the deal.
- Julian Alvarez (Manchester City, FWD) - Alvarez has had a better than expected start to the year, but with Bernardo back fit, Doku in the squad, and 1-2 more signings potentially incoming, now is the time to sell high. Pep is notorious for rotating attackers in and out of the side at complete random regardless or form, fitness, or fixture. A lot of managers will be trying to get any sort of City assets they can ahead of their friendly run, but if Alvarez only starts 2/5 of the next games was he really worth turning down all those offers? I would look to sell as high as possible and use Alvarez in a deal to get a FWD1. The likes of Rashford, Diaz, and Salah are all players I would target with Alvarez + a MID4/DEF3. A deal such as Alvarez + Jensen for Diaz probably has a chance of being accepted. While there may be some rotation concerns over Diaz in my opinion he has truly made that LW spot his own, while the likes of Jota/Darwin will continue to compete for the #9 role.
Gameweek 3 Advice
Bottom of the Table Battle (Wolves vs. Everton)
The two teams at the foot of the table will go head-to-head this weekend in what some may call an early relegation battle. I think this is a bit of a stretch, as Wolves will not be relegated or even in that battle this year. Everton, however, have every chance of going down and also failing to score again this weekend. It will be 3 weeks in a row without a goal if that happens. Everton are missing almost every attacker minus Garner, Doucoure, Danjuma, and the prolific Maupay. Yea, they are in trouble. Despite Wolves getting run over by Brighton last weekend, I am perfectly happy streaming any Wolves starter this weekend -- even their defenders who got negative points. On the Everton side, I'm staying away from all defenders not named Tarkowski, and I'm not rushing out to pick up any streamers not named Garner. I will be surprised if Everton win this one. Despite the 2 losses, Wolves have looked incredible this season and should consider themselves unlucky not to have come away with at least a point for their efforts. Quality will prevail here.
Benching Fulham Assets
Arsenal on the cards, and Fulham have looked awful. 3-0 drubbing against Brentford, and despite the win against Everton, they were dominated in all aspects of the game. Now they are missing a first choice CB and are going up against a very potent attack. Fulham will see almost none of the ball, and even the likes of Andreas and Wilson might be worth benching unless you are short of options. Unless the Fulham asset is named Leno, this is not the week to trade in, pick up or start their assets. This could get very ugly.
United Bounce Back Game?
United have looked awful this year. I don't know how many times I can keep saying that. Now news has just broken that Shaw could be out for months. He has probably looked their best player this year besides Onana. This is a huge blow for United, losing an attacking threat and set-piece taker ahead of a "must-win" game. Luckily, both AWB and Dalot are available and will start on either side of the back line. We all know how much I love Shaw, but even with his absence United can still be fine on the defensive side. Mount as well will miss the game, but I think Eriksen coming in will better balance the squad. Ten Hag will be forced to revert to what was a very successful midfield trio of Casemiro, Eriksen, Bruno for this weekend's match against Nottingham Forest. Eriksen is a lot calmer on the ball, and doesn't just run and run as we have seen Mount do. His calming presence and experience will really help this United attack put some goals away. I expect this to be a bounce back game for attackers especially, and will say that if you can somehow get Rashford or Bruno before this game, do it! I think the other two attacking positions are open and it will be two of Sancho, Antony, Martial, and Garnacho. I really can't predict this one with each of these players having their own batch of negatives. I do think Sancho may get his chance whether through the middle or on the RW - so if he was dropped after 2 benchings he's worth a speculative pick up.
3 "Ones to Watch"
- Nicolas Jackson - Jackson has had a poor start to the campaign fantasy wise but has looked great on the pitch. The returns are coming, and Poch has offered the highest praise for him. Watch for him starting to take more of a shoot first role this weekend, and make some offers after the Luton game, especially if he comes away with another sub 10 point score. He is new to the EPL in a team with no real identiy, and who has just loss arguably their best player due to injury (Nkunku). Jackson is a player that will require a bit of patience, but once he finds the net once I expect the goals to go flying in. One word of caution is Chelsea may be looking to bring in another attacking asset especially with the injuries to Carney and Nkunku - in the short term this won't hurt Jackson. Long term if he continues to struggle to score he might face some rotation, but we are talking way down the ways.
- Dejan Kulusevski - Kulusevski is unlucky to not have more points so far. He has more than passed the eye test on the field, and the points will come. In a matchup against a leaky Bournemouth defense, he could be one to finally get on the radar of many fantasy managers.
- James Garner - Iwobi, McNeil, Harrison, and DCL are all out for Everton for some time. Garner will have to do the heavy lifting for the Everton attack. Garner finally has a chance to show he is an EPL star, and I think he will surprise many. Everton are in trouble, but can Garner be the big fish in a small pond? He should get a chunk of set pieces as well for the foreseeable future given the injury situation.
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