The English Premier League set a new record last season as 14 managers were sacked during the course of the 38 gameweeks. One more was shown walking papers after the last ball was kicked and two interim appointments were not offered new contracts. Some teams even managed the unenviable feat of going through 3 or more head coaches in the dugout. Javi Gracia's 70-day spell at Leeds marked the second shortest stint for a manager in the history of the English top flight. Hopefully, we won't see as many changes in this upcoming season, but it is still worth looking at how managerial changes altered the course of teams and players, through Fantasy-tinted glasses.
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How does the "New Manager Bounce" Affect Fantasy EPL?
In the article, I will examine all permanent managerial changes, what the expectations were around the appointment, and how it panned out for respective fantasy players.
Gary O'Neil, Bournemouth
We knew full well that the first few fixtures were not gonna be a cakewalk for Bournemouth and after an early result against Villa, they didn't manage to score a goal under Scott Parker. Their top fantasy scorer was Marcus Tavernier with 28.5 points across 4 games. The only way was up from there and Gary O'Neil steadied the ship well, guiding them to safety. With only 4 games for Parker, and those being against top-quality opposition, not many tactical conclusions could be drawn and with a relatively unknown manager, not many expectations had. We expected some fantasy assets to emerge as the fixture list eased up and that is exactly what happened.
Fantasy takeaway: Start by checking upcoming fixtures when trying to determine if a new manager bounce will happen.
Graham Potter/Frank Lampard, Chelsea
It feels like a lifetime ago since that fateful night in Zagreb. Tuchel's sacking was a surprise, and it unsettled those managers who had drafted Chelsea players only a month before, with Sterling, Mount, James and Chilwell all having top-30 draft grades. At the time of Tuchel's sacking, Sterling was sitting on 60 points in 5 games, delivering 3 goals and an assist. He would finish the season with only 6G/3A. The others didn't fare much better. Although for a few weeks it looked like appointing Potter was a decent play, it quickly turned sour. The best player between the day Tuchel was sacked and the World Cup started was Mason Mount with 69 points in 8 games (sandwiched between fantasy legends Cree Summerville's 74 points and Lewis Cook's 64 points for the same period).
Potter's appointment was always supposed to pay dividends in the long term, so the expectation was not high. The fact that both fullbacks, the positions where we were sure who Potter would play, got injured quickly sealed the fate of all fantasy managers rostering Chelsea players.
Fantasy takeaway: When the messaging around a manager screams long-term, no expectations in the short term and the club is seemingly in turmoil, stay away and sell all assets. By the same token, when the communication around a manager screams short-term, no chance of a long-term appointment and the club is seemingly in turmoil, stay away and sell all assets.
Julen Lopetegui, Wolves
One win in 8 games sealed Lage's fate early this season, and besides Ruben Neves (64.5 points in 8 games), who was on an Almiron-esque revenge against Robbie, who had him on the Do No Draft list, the Wolves players were doing horribly. The Mendes-inspired hierarchy took the less-trodden path of appointing an interim manager until the World Cup with a view of getting a proper replacement in over the mid-season break (Steve Davis: 7 games, 5 losses, 1 draw, 1 win). Lopetegui steadied the ship once he was appointed and while the attacking output did not change much and the defensive solidity fell away big time after they were officially out of the relegation dog fight, the improvement was clear. Neves, Nunes, Kilman, Semedo and Dawson were the best performers under Lopetegui, highlighting the fact that when an experienced new manager comes in, it is the defence that he usually tries to sort out first.
Fantasy takeaway: Don't bet on interim managers (Steve Davis was never the answer), especially when there is a systemic problem (Wolves have not been able to score goals for years). A new manager, more often than not, will not have the magic touch to change that overnight.
Unai Emery, Aston Villa
Another sacking that was expected, to say the least. The only thing worse than the results was how the team actually played. Devoid of creativity and tactical ideas, at times it seemed that the players themselves just wanted it to be over. Given the talent of the squad, you couldn't help but feel that they were destined for greater things under a new manager. Ollie Watkins (78 points in 11 games) had been their best performer.
Boy, did they turn it around. Unai Emery's appointment absolutely galvanised the team and boosted their assets' fantasy values. Watkins finished the season 14th overall since Gerrard was sacked, Douglas Luiz 24th and Jacob Ramsey 41st. Every one of the Villa players was a buy-low candidate. It is important to stay on the ball, if you have managed to snag buy-low guys in anticipation of a new manager bounce. Expectation of managers' preferred systems is one thing, reality is another. While Emery's appointment did result in increased value for the aforementioned trio, the system he emloyed allowed for much more G, A/CS based streaming (logical, as the team was playing much better, so there was more love to spread), but at the end of the day, it did not result in a lot of value increase for many other players.
Fantasy takeaway: A steadily run team with good players can click into gear with a well-chosen manager. Target players who are nailed on in potentially rewarding roles (Watkins) or have the quality and prior fantasy production to be trusted (Luiz).
Nathan Jones/Ruben Selles, Southampton
The Southampton squad was flagged as one of the weakest around in the summer and while there were some exciting young acquisitions who ended up impressing (Lavia, ABK), the much needed squad refresh to avoid the relegation dog-fight did not happen. So Hasenhüttl started the season on the back foot. Expectedly, he could not arrest the slide and was sacked before the World Cup. Nathan Jones seemed like a good, young manager, but too much chopping and changing and not enough strengthening in the January window led to his demise. Selles, another interim manager, again, was never the answer and most of us knew this from the get-go.
Fantasy takeaway: An unproven manager with an inadequate squad always warrants caution. Check non-fantasy factors (manager press conferences, demeanor, etc) to get a feel for whether the manager can make the step up.
Sean Dyche, Everton
The Saviour cometh. Even before the season started, people were screaming for Dyche to take over Everton. The old Burnley gang - Keane, Tarkowski, & McNeil - were already there. The team survived only by the skin of their teeth last season. It would have been a perfect appointment in the summer. However, they had to wait until mid-January for it to happen when Everton were languishing in 19th. Dyche turned it around in a big way, but surprisingly to many, it wasn't the defence that he improved a lot, it was the offence. He finally figured out how to use McNeil. McNeil ended up 4th overall since Dyche took over, Iwobi 25th, Tarkowski 34th, and Doucure 45th. Just like with Emery, when you see a team that has good players and they are getting an experienced manager in, who, as an added bonus, has prior relationships with key players, you should try to buy low on all their assets.
Fantasy takeaway: Buy low when an experienced manager comes in and has time to work with a talented squad.
Javi Gracia/Sam Allardyce, Leeds
Leeds' fate was probably sealed when they trusted Jesse Marsch to mould the Bielsa-inspired squad to his tactical needs. Although they had talented players, the transition from a Bielsa system was always going to be very difficult, especially when they lost their midfield dynamo, Kalvin Phillips. Similar to the Tuchel sacking, Marsch's dismissal came just days after the transfer window had closed, a window that included signings requested by the previous manager. Javi Gracia's announcement included wording that said his contract was flexible. Not a good sign. Before being appointed, he managed in Qatar - also not a great sign.Gracia was eventually sacked and replaced by Allardyce for the last few games, to no avail.
Fantasy takeaway: Unbalanced squads with unproven managers, or managers who are given precious little time should make fantasy managers cautious.
Roy Hodgson, Crystal Palace
Patrick Vieira was somewhat cruelly and surprisingly sacked after a run of no wins since New Year's Eve. From April 1st, Palace were looking at the kindest fixture list of the season for any club, maybe even in the history of the EPL. At the point of Hodgson's appointment, people were sceptical about what he might bring to the table, but he galvanised the team and helped Eze and Olise finish in the top 10 for total fantasy points for the period while Roy had been in charge. Jordan Ayew, Joel Ward and Marc Guehi all turned into fantasy-relevant assets during the final 10 games of the season.
Fantasy takeaway: Similar to the situation with Bournemouth, fixtures need to be considered when considering new manager expectations. No disrespect to Hodgson but most new managers or even Vieira would likely have gotten Palace assets humming over the last 10 games.
Christian Stellini/Ryan Mason, Tottenham Hotspur
The less we talk about these new manager appointments, the better. Even the most die-hard Spurs fans were not excited about the bumbling nature of Levy's manager hunt/appointments at the tail end of the season. The subsequent appointments of a veritable Conte-clone with no head coach experience and then a former player to save face, meant that most fantasy managers knew not to expect much from Spurs assets. Besides Kane and Son keeping up their production, only Porro and Perisic were able to kick into gear after Conte left. As a fantasy manager, you were better off streaming somewhere else than investing in Spurs players in the last few months.
Fantasy takeaway: Just like in previous instances, the toxic nature of the club and the uninspired appointments rarely produce usable results.
Dean Smith, Leicester City
Too little, too late. Leicester finally sacked Rodgers and then failed to appoint a successor for what seemed like ages. They finally went with Smith, who was appointed Norwich head coach in similar circumstances 2 seasons ago, only to guide them to relegation and fail to guide them back, getting sacked mid-season. In the short term, that resume does not sound appealing at all, and that is exactly what happened. Out of the players who started most of the games, only Maddison was able to produce above 10 PPS.
Fantasy takeaway: Too little, too late. There is no value in uninspired appointments.
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