Leicester City 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Draft Society
- Jul 28, 2024
- 12 min read
Updated: Jul 30, 2024
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Leicester's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Leicester City Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Leicester City 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Leicester City Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Leicester City Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at The Foxes' prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got LCFC player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Foxes' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Leicester City fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
As is immediately evident by looking at the above table, Steve Cooper's Foxes aren't expected to be fantasy superstars. Sorted by WAR Rank, this table demonstrates which LCFC players would be more advantageous to roster on your fantasy team versus your random, run of the mill streamer. WAR is a measurement of how much more valuable a player is than an average replacement player. A season-long WAR of 1.0 would roughly equate to that player alone winning you 1 more matchup vs an average replacement player off the waiver wire. When looking at total WAR, the top player, Bukayo Saka, clocks in at 2.93. The top Leicester City player, Abdul Fatawu scores a 0.01 on that same scale. That should give you a pretty solid indication of our projected season-long value for Foxes' players. They're not winning you any leagues. However, it's not all disappointment from a fantasy football lens from this team, as we'll discuss.
Below you'll see some players to watch from LCFC, but as a more general overview, we'll spend some time with some peripheral EPL Draft assets. While we're not bullish on most Leicester assets overall, that doesn't mean they can't be role players for your team, though they may not warrant a draft pick for your team. Which players would we actually bother drafting from these Foxes? Obviously, the two standouts would be last year's dynamic winger duo in Fatawu and Mavididi. It will surprise none of you that those two will feature below in our Players to Watch. However, Vardy provides some interesting talking points as well. Somehow still a speedster and always a natural poacher, Vards isn't going to set the world alight. However, here's a refrain you'll hear a lot from me in this article... in the right matchup, he's a viable streamer. The same can be said for the two fullbacks, Pereira and Justin. I'm actually a bit higher on these two than the projections may hint. Remembering back to the 23/23 performances of Neco Williams and Serge Aurier under Steve Cooper should go some way to convincing you that defenders can be viable under this system which, admittedly, will leak goals. See the Early Season Fixture Difficulty section for more info on whether or not you should spend draft capital on LCFC defenders.
Those players aside, we're still waiting for what I'll call "Impact Signing 1" for a more promising fantasy football outlook. But unfortunately, if you're an outsider to this re-promoted team, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the sales of Maresca and Dewsbury-Hall would leave the Foxes flush with cash to bring in a replacement playmaker. However, the financial difficulties run deep for this club and the aforementioned sales simply helped to paper over the massive wage mistakes made in 22/23. When a team budgets its wage bill for a top 8 finish in the Premier League, but ends up getting relegated, trouble ensues. And that trouble is likely to finally rear its head in the form of a points deduction in 24/25. While we all wish they were here to pull up some trees in the Prem, unfortunately Leicester's only goal this season will be staying up.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Leicester City players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Abdul Fatawu
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: Rd 75-90 (12 Team League: Rounds 7-9)
Analysis: Here's an asset that you'll be able to get much later in your home leagues than you will in super-involved and knowledgeable leagues. Fatawu isn't going to spark the name recognition that many other players taken in this area of the draft will such as Shaw, Barnes, and Calvert-Lewin. However, he may just outscore all of them. First, a word of caution -- I saw him recently taken in the 6th round in a mock draft full of experienced drafters. So let's not get "out over our skis" here, as American tech-bros say. He's still a winger on a Steve Cooper team. And while many fondly remember Brennan Johnson's breakout under Cooper, he wouldn't have warranted this price tag either.
In terms of what to expect, when we convert last season's performances in the Championship to fantasy points, Fatawu was an all-star. Remember, though, there's a heavy, heavy Championship to Premier League tax that must be applied to those numbers. But, as it stands, he would have scored 14.1 PPS with 496 points overall, propped up by 6 goals, 13 assists, and 12.2 ghost points per 90 (Gpts/90). These numbers are enough to warrant a high draft pick, but expect those to fall by at least 1/3. Though, you're allowed to have some mild excitement about his prospects as he had the 14th highest non-penalty goal + assist xG in the Championship accompanied by the 13th most key passes, and the 4th most successful dribbles. The path to ghost points is there for Fatawu, and that's what draft managers want to see. Also, note that he's been tasked with some corners this preseason after KDH's departure, though Mavididi has seen the majority of them.
Stephy Mavididi
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: Rd 80-96 (12 Team League: Rounds 8-9)
Analysis: That's right. We're recommending Mavididi and Fatawu be taken at about the same area of the draft even though we've projected Fatawu to outscore Mavi. Some of that boils down to the fact that (until we see a concrete winger signing), these two are absolutely nailed for playtime. And they both indulge in ghost point gathering. As with Fatawu, we can look at last season's numbers for a cautiously-optimistic indicator of what's to come. Mavididi would have scored 12.2 PPS with 9.5 Gpts/90 alongside 12 goals and 6 assists. In the Championship, he ranked 10th in key passes, 15th in crosses, 11th in dribbles, 11th in shots on target, and 16th in npxg+xAG (non-penalty expected goals + expected assists). There's certainly enough there to get excited about. This season, his projected stats (8.4 PPS) in the above table reflect the fact that his xG + xA will suffer as goals will be much harder to come by in the EPL. Plus, we've got the aforementioned Premier League stats tax. A bit more reliant on goals and assists for his fantasy points, Mavididi could still be a very strong FWD 3 for your fantasy team. Be careful, though, as Fantrax's projections will have you thinking he's the second coming of prime Adama Traore. As mentioned before, Mavididi has seen the bulk of the free kick duty in KDH's absence. He has also been used in preseason both on the wings and at the 10 spot.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the King Power. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Leicester City players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Harry Winks
Position: MID
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: DND - Do Not Draft
Analysis: Here's a name you recognize! Remember that youth prospect from Spurs who everyone promised would be a mainstay in the England squad for years to come? Well, be happy for him. He's finally found his groove. He's joined a team that appreciates the hell out of him. He's going to play nearly every minute for this squad, he's going to leave everything he has on the field, the fans will sing his name and appreciate his sacrifice on the pitch, and he'll do it all while scoring next to no fantasy points. Do not chase the minutes or the name recognition with Winks. He's a black hole for Fpts despite being utterly indispensable for his team. As a concrete example, Winks has played 128 games over the course of 6 Premier League seasons. His highest fantasy points per game average over those 6 seasons was 4.0.
Ricardo Pereira
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: 170+ (12 Team League: Round 15 or later)
Analysis: It will be easy to get enamored by "Riccy P" based on his history as a living legend in the EPL Draft game plus his mini-renaissance last season. His converted Fpts put him solidly at 9.8 PPS with 8.1 GPPS. He played 39 games (which is unheard of for this injury-riddled gent) in which he chipped in for 3 goals, 3 assists, and 7 clean sheets. Well, all of those numbers were achieved under an Enzo Maresca system that utilized him as an inverted, ball-playing fullback who drifts into the midfield. With a league-low in goals against and the fourth most clean sheets, Leicester City's defense will surely be leakier in the Premier League under a manager whose Forest squad gave away goals for fun. Add to that the fact that the Foxes have a relatively unfavorable early-season fixture run-in, and Pereira is likely one to avoid unless you're willing to hold and hope.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Leicester City. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Foxes that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Leicester's fantasy assets.
Formation Limitations
We'll detail this in a bit more detail below, but one of our main concerns for the Cooper era at Leicester is his over-willingness to chop and change his formations on a dime. Steve-O doesn't usually do this because he's concerned about rotating his squad. Instead, he will sometimes switch to more defensive 3-at-the-back (read five defenders) formations in order to avoid shipping goals at biblical proportions. This shift neutralizes much of the attacking threat of the team and (obviously) sacrifices another more offensive-minded outfield player for a third CB. We're hoping to avoid this bus-parking mentality this season, but if the Foxes get absolutely done in the first handful of games this season, we could be in for some brutal football rest-of-season.
The Shopping List
Do you know what would have made me a whole lot more excited about Leicester's fantasy assets as a whole this season? The club not selling their best player to Chelsea before a make-or-break campaign to set straight their finances and retain their spot in the Premier League. Unfortunately, they did just that. And they've not replaced him. There's not much nuance to this narrative, but stay tuned because if Leicester can replace (even to a small extent) some of the creative, attacking talent shown by Dewsbury-Hall, all attacking players will benefit. As it stands, there's a gulf in middle of the pitch that's not likely to be filled by 18-year-old incomer Michael Golding from Chelsea's academy. Mavididi, as said previously, has been tested in the 10 role, but Cooper's comments about needing to improve in certain areas hint that he knows a true 10 is needed.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Leicester's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
As I've already alluded to, the Foxes start the season with a trying defensive schedule. The first four matches see them hosting Spurs and Villa and traveling to Fulham and 23/24 in form team Crystal Palace. Those matches look bleak for clean sheets and wins in general. Realistically, I can see them shipping 8-10 goals in those first 4 matches. Gameweek 5 marks the start of a much more favorable run, which includes EVE, @ars, BOU, @sou, NOT, and @ips. What does this mean for EPL Draft assets? I'm fairly certain that those managers who draft the likes of Pereira, Justin, and Faes will get frustrated rather quickly and look for greener pastures. I would recommend using your draft capital to sign defensive players from Fulham or Palace instead due to their favorable early-season fixtures. Then, if you're looking for a spark after GW4, bring in Pereira, Justin, or (if you're desperate) Faes to stream through GW10.
That aside, there's not much to discuss regarding the Foxes' early-season fixtures. The attackers will have their work cut out for them against the previously mentioned sides, but that's true for the entirety of the season for this team. After selling KDH, the cards were always going to be stacked against them. And while they're not facing the stoutest defenses in the league early doors, these five teams will be enough of a test for us to see what Mavididi, Fatuwu, and Vardy are made of. If things look dire after these fixtures, I'd consider selling low on what little draft day value might still be there for these players. If fantasy results for these players are fair to middling, then absolutely trot them out from GW5 on and hope for some better returns.
24/25 Leicester City Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Leicester City lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Leicester's XI shaking out.
New manager Steve Cooper (unlike recently departed Enzo Maresca) is known for being quite flexible and creative in his tactics and team formations. While he normally favors a 4-2-3-1 formation with two holding MIDs, he has also been know to trot out five at the back utilizing wingbacks (3-4-1-2) in games where his team is obviously outmatched. So, setting aside the matches against PL powerhouses like Arsenal, City, and Liverpool, let's take a look at how Cooper may set up his squad on a week-to-week basis.
In his favored 4-2-3-1, we will likely see Vestergaard and Faes hold down the back line in front of Hermansen. The fullback spots should be occupied by Pereira and Justin if both can stay fit. And they will be busy, just like Neco Williams was in 22/23 when he averaged 8.3 ghost points per start. The midfield will likely feature a double-pivot of Winks and Ndidi. McAteer will look to direct the attack from the 10 spot, but unlikely to deliver on what would have been a season-long points haul from KDH at this spot. Finally, we'll see Mavididi and Fatawu flank Vardy to form the spear of the attack. This formation provided the coming-out party for both Brennan Johnson and Taiwo Awoniyi two seasons ago, so we'll hope for similar results for the current crop of attackers in 24/25. Keep in mind that there have been rumblings about Leicester shopping around in the winger market with names like Reece Nelson being tossed around. This would certainly be surprising considering the two talented wingers they currently have. Cooper has noted the need for a number 10 to replace KDH and Mavididi has shown he can play that role. There have also been vocal shouts from supporters and pundits for a new striker, as patience with Daka is about at its breaking point. Regardless of what happens, I forsee Cooper finding a way to work in Fatawu and Mavididi in whatever his XI ends up being.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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