Liverpool 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- RobbieP (@ateamofcarras)
- Aug 3, 2024
- 12 min read
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview the Reds fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Liverpool Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Liverpool 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Liverpool Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Liverpool Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Liverpool's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Liverpool player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Gunners' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Liverpool fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
It's all change at Liverpool this season under new manager Arne Slot, and this is reflected in the projections, especially in terms of of projected starts. After a hamstring injury during AFCON, Salah struggled in the 2nd half of last season, and there is a risk that could continue. That's reflected in his 28 proj starts, well down on his projections from previous season. But given his consistency in scoring FPts, he will still be the first Liverpool player off the board and likely in the top 6.
At this point, it's anyone's guess as to who will take the other two forward spots alongside Salah. Short of Jota, we are yet to see the international players that were involved in the Euros and Copa America play a pre-season game, and likely won't before most start drafting. This uncertainty is reflected in the spread of proj starts, which range from 17 to 24 across the rest of the front line. If I was a betting man, I would agree with the projections that Darwin should win out in terms of WAR, especially after his stellar form for Uruguay in the summer. He also has the highest upside with 13.4 PPS projected, but this almost feels like a floor for him, if he could actually start to put away all the chances he's given. Jota has just as much, if not more upside than Darwin, but issues staying fit have hampered him for a few seasons now and he just can't be relied upon. The left wing spot looks likely to be a straight fight between Diaz and Gakpo. The projections favour Diaz, but Gakpo can fill in across all forward positions and at No. 10, so could potentially have a route to more starts that way.
Slot has typically played with a 4231, with a double pivot and a no.10 in midfield, which is where things get interesting. This will be a more attacking central role, likely to be taken by Szoboszlai, but Elliot will also certainly be looking to claim that spot, just as he did ahead of the Hungarian at the end of last season. In the double pivot, Mac Allister seems a shoo-in for the role, which could stifle some of his value compared to what we saw in the second half of last season. But this will also likely be influenced by who his partner will be as it is expected that one of them will be more advanced in possession. The other spot will likely be taken by one of Endo, Jones, Gravenberch or Bajectic, all projected within a 13 to 15 start range. However, they should not hold much fantasy value. A wildcard for that role could also be Elliot, as we saw in the recent friendly against Arsenal where he laid on two assists.
Captain Van Dijk is projected for the most starts of any Liverpool player and is always a solid pick. But given a proj PPS of 9.7, we're expecting a gradual decline in his output where he's no longer a pick in the first 3 rounds. The battle to partner him at centre back could be very interesting with Konate (20) and Quansah (16) nearly 50/50 on projected starts. Quansah is an interesting bet as he is very likely to start the season, given both VVD and Konate will arrive late back from the Euros. So he has a big chance to stake his claim for a spot in the XI, he's also better on the ball than Konate, which may suit Slot's tactics. Slot's style could also see a return to some swashbuckling displays from the fullbacks. Robertson and Alexander-Arnold could offer great value indeed if they can push that projected 28+ starts mark. There are some questions marks, though, as to Trent's role under Slot (RB vs CDM), which could pave the way for Conor Bradley to break into the team at right back, after he had a breakout season in Trent's absence last season.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Liverpool players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Dominik Szoboszlai
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 265.5 (39th best best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 10.8 (17 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 40 - 50 (12 Team League: Round 4 - 5)
Analysis: I'm excited about Szoboszlai's potential this season given the expected formation under new manager Arne Slot. In the previous campaign, Szobo had a great start to life at Liverpool, but things clearly dropped off after what looked like a fatigue/injury-related issue, as he was clearly having his minutes managed. He played in a right sided no.8 role, which certainly influenced him to be more of a creative player for the team. However, a move to the no.10 position in Slot's 4231 could open up more goal-scoring opportunities. This is a role in which he could really thrive.
We have seen him do this regularly for his country, and particularly in the 21/22 season at RB Leipzig, where he operated more from the left and was used across every central/wide attacking midfield position going, and even up top as a false 9. This allowed him to get into more attacking positions and shift to shoot on his lethal right foot. While he only managed 9.9 PPS last season, with a bit more luck fitness-wise and a more attacking role, we could see that jump significantly. I feel he's being slept on with an ADP of 55 (mid 5th round), so he could be a very nice addition from the middle of round 4 onwards.
An honourable mention should go to Harvey Elliott who really broke through as a genuine first XI contender last season while deputising for Szoboszlai in the RCM no.8 role. He was a creative force, racking up key passes for fun and averaging 12.6 PPS. Klopp even admitted one of his biggest regrets last season was not giving him more game time earlier. He's clearly very capable of adapting to different positions, as he has also covered on the RW for Salah. In preseason, we have seen him play as a 10 and an 8 in the double pivot. This gives him lots of avenues to starts. And he has been showing so much quality that I could easily see him pushing 50%+ starts next season. I would happily pick up Elliot in his own right from round 8 onwards, but he could also form a very nice handcuff pairing with Szoboszlai.
Darwin Nunez
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: 344.5 (13th best best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 12.6 (22 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 19-24 (12 Team League: Round 2)
Analysis: We don't have much information to go on, but Darwin Nunez would be the only Liverpool forward not named Salah that I would risk taking as high as the 2nd round. As discussed, the others don't have the upside (Diaz/Gakpo) or are too injury prone (Jota) to risk taking so early. Darwin, however, has so much untapped potential. He could really thrive if Liverpool's forwards start to get back to basics and bend in a ton of high quality crosses for him to attack. He was in excellent form for Uruguay over the summer and hopefully that can be a catalyst for him to have a breakthrough year under Slot. His issue since joining the Reds has been squandering chances, with just 11 goals from 16.3 xG last season. But he actually overperformed in his last season at Benfica with 26 goals from 18.4 xG, so it's' not yet written in stone that he is a bad finisher. What we should pay attention to is the fact that last season he generated 0.72 xG/90, which ranked him 4th in the league. So if he gets his chance and finishes even just close to his xG, he could be dynamite! Only Salah is remotely close to this level of the Liverpool forwards, and you've got to think Slot will have been taking notice!
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Emirates. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Liverpool players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Luis Diaz
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: 382.25 (9th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 11.0 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 33-38 (12 Team League: Round 3)
Analysis: Luis Diaz was an absolute force in the second half of last season, averaging 13.5 PPS and scoring 5 and assisting 5 over that period. He started 32 games, showing just how integral he was to Klopp's transitional style of football, with high energy, pressing, and dribbling into the box to propel the attack. However, this season there are a lot more risk factors to consider for Diaz, despite the competition for his position remaining the same. His ADP is sky high at19, which doesn't seem to factor in any of the issues we face going into a draft.
A new manager brings new tactics, and this will certainly involve more patient possession build up than before, which may not suit Diaz as well. A new manager also brings new preferences. Slot's fellow Dutchman Gakpo is in direct competition with Diaz, so could that affect things? We have also seen none of Gakpo, Diaz or Nunez in pre-season, so we're going in blind in terms of Slot's preference. Additionally, even if Diaz wins out as the preferred left winger, we could see a lot of early substitutions/rotation as Slot has been well known for substituting his wingers early in matches. Last season, he would often bring off wingers Luke Ivanusec, Igor Paixão and Yankubah Minteh early in the second half to keep things fresh. In fact, these three only managed to register 5 full 90 minute cameos between them! So a lot of risk factors have not been priced into his current ADP, which currently puts him in the middle of round 2. He's still a great player and has a lot of potential, but I would be much more comfortable taking him towards the end of round 3.
Alexis Mac Allister
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 296.25 (29th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 9.5 (31 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 65-75 (12 Team League: Round 6 to7)
Analysis: It feels like Deja vu all over again, recommending Alexis Mac Allister as a player to avoid. Last season that was the right call, given he was used as no.6 for the first half of the season and barely put up any fantasy points. Clearly that changed with the return of Endo from the Asian Cup and Szoboszlai's struggles, which meant a more advanced role for the Argentine. Mac Allister absolutely nailed it, shooting up from an irrelevant 4.9 PPS in the first half of the season to 12.9 PPS in the second half. He really was one of the standout free agent picks ups! The reason for tempering expectations is that he seems so well placed to thrive in the midfield double pivot for Slot, which will be a less advanced role.
A lot will also depend on who plays next to him. If it's Endo, he should have more license to get forward. But if it's Elliot, Gravenberch, or Jones, then he could end up being more reserved. Even then I don't expect him to be as bad as 4.9 PPS. He will still be decent and his projection of 9.7 PPS feels like it bakes in this formation change appropriately. While he's going to be absolutely as nailed, which is a nice bonus, I certainly wouldn't want to bet on him getting more than 10 PPS. So a spot in the 6th round onwards feels about the right value. However, with an ADP of 51, it looks like he'll be taken a lot earlier than he should be!
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Liverpool. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Gunners that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Liverpool's fantasy assets.
HOW WILL THE NEW MANAGER SET UP?
By all accounts, Slot appears to be a very adaptable manager. In terms of build up, his teams are closer to Guardiola's style of wanting to dominate possession. But he also draws on the tactic - popularised by De Zerbi - of patiently passing it around the backwhile trying to draw the opposition out of shape, before passing between the lines into two staggered central midfielders, who will then look to distribute the ball out wide to the wingers or full backs to advance up the pitch. But out of possession is where the similarities to Klopp become clearer, where his teams press with intensity to look to win the ball back high up the pitch. Slot's teams will be attacking, but they will look for more control of the ball than Klopp's Liverpool. but he will switch things up in approach to ensure the team is not predictable. So we should see an improvement defensively with more control. Hopefully with the players at his disposal, he can keep up the attacking output, but this could potentially drop a bit.
WHAT WILL SLOT DO WITH TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD?
There has been a lot of discussion in pre-season on whether Trent could move into midfield this season under Slot. This has stemmed from him starting for England in midfield in the Euros, and with him inverting into midfield for Klopp last season too, with quite a lot of success delivering in deadly balls from the half spaces. However, I don't see this happening, and while we can't say for certain given he's not kicked a ball in pre-season yet, Slot's tactics in the build up did utilise an inverted full back. At Feyenoord, Slot would have one of the full backs invert while the other moves further up the pitch to provide width, and one of the midfielders in the double pivot would move forward to create a box in the middle of the pitch. So there are certainly similarities in the approach and Trent should be comfortable taking on this role without having to completely change position.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Liverpool's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Liverpool have an interesting start to the season. On paper it looks quite easy. However, a trip to Portman Road on the opening weekend could prove tricky given how long Ipswich supporters have waited for their return to the Premier League. While Liverpool have mostly enjoyed their trips to Old Trafford in the last decade, United do have it in them, despite how badly they have been playing (as shown by their high FDT numbers), to turn up and make things difficult given the fierce rivalry. Home games against Brentford, Nottingham, and Bournemouth look like nice fixtures, though, and it certainly would incentivize you to take Liverpool players if you're looking to draft for early fixtures.
24/25 Liverpool Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Liverpool lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Liverpool's XI shaking out.
As described above, the biggest question marks surround the forward spots. Here we're showing Darwin and Diaz winning out, but this is still very much up still up in the air! Szoboszlai should gain the no.10 role, but Elliot will be breathing down his neck. Endo should start the season in the double pivot next to Mac Allister, but there are a host of no.8's that could come in and do a job there, including Elliot. So he will certainly have a fight on his hands. In defence, Konate vs Quansah will be an interesting battle. The more experienced Konate should win out, but his habit of picking up injuries and not being able to play twice a week gives Quansah a very real route to the starting XI. Depending on injuries, jack of all trades Gomez could also see significant game time again covering across the whole defensive line.
More 24/25 Fantasy Forecasts: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Ipswich Town | Leicester City | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Southampton | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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