Manchester City 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Joe Williams
- Jul 29, 2024
- 12 min read
Updated: Jul 30, 2024
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview The Cityzens' fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Manchester City Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Manchester City 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Manchester City Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Manchester City Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Manchester City's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Man City player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of City's early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Manchester City fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
The above table is sorted by WAR Ranking. In short, WAR refers to how many extra matchups a certain player helps your fantasy team win vs an average waiver-wire replacement player. Manchester City players are WAR monsters. The rotation concerns are always there, which can always cause a bit of sticker shock at the draft-day cost. But the WAR implications are massive, meaning that, simply put, City players just win you more weeks than most other players in the league. To have 3 players in the top 10 in WAR Rank is absurdly impressive. To have 6 in the top 25 says even more. City is a factory for fantasy points and will continue to be so at least until Pep's departure.
If you examine this table, you'll see that there are 3 tiers to City players: the elite, the second-tier, and the streamers. For the sake of argument, let's label Foden, De Bruyne, Haaland, Doku, and Alvarez elite. These assets speak for themselves. The risk, as always, lies in the projected games started column. Are you willing to take the rotation risk given the draft cost? From a purely statistical standpoint, the WAR numbers indicate that you should. In the weeks that you're able to start these players, you're much more likely to win your matchup.
The second-tier Manchester City players including Rodri, Silva, Gvardiol, and Grealish are all projected between 10 and 11 points per start. To be clear, these are not "second tier" numbers on any other team. And 3 of these 4 are dependable fantasy assets. (I would never use the term "nailed on" with a City asset for fear that the fantasy gods would smite me down.) Saucy Jack is the only real risk in this group. Will he have been able to mend burned bridges with Pep over the summer? If you think so, grab him in drafts because he's never cost you less on draft day.
The remainder of the City players are streamer level. This can be confusing when you see the PPS numbers for players like Bobb at 12.9. Never sort by that column. In the two games he's projected to start, his PPS is likely to be stellar, but you don't draft a player like that. The only remaining player on this team who I would consider drafting very late in drafts would be Kyle Walker, and even that's a stretch. MCI defenders not named Joško usually hold streamer value at best.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Manchester City players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Jack Grealish
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 114 (84th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 9.3 (10 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 96 - 120 (12 Team League: Round 9ish)
Analysis: Look, we all know what Jack Grealish can do when he's on it. And, to be clear, last season he wasn't. If you want a deeper dive into just what happened with him last season, read my Man City Fantasy Flashback. More importantly, he seems to be making some much-needed big boy decisions these days. He and his partner are expecting their first child, he's forgone his summer holiday in order to focus on his game, and he's attended Wimbledon (a sure sign of rapid aging). Additionally, Guardiola has made it very clear that he's not given up on Jack, stating that he can absolutely win back a more consistent spot in this XI. Grealish's head appears to be clear and focused heading into this season. If Manchester City don't strengthen in any major way before the season starts, I like Grealish to start more than the 10 games he did in 23/24. Even with Doku starting ~18 games, Grealish could be entrusted with more Premier Leagues duties while Doku is deployed more in cup competitions. As we've gone over, City players are WAR monsters. And even Grealish, for all the stick he gets for passing backwards, is a threat on the ball. Pep still trusted him with the start in 30% of City's matches during the worst spell of form, mental health, and personal struggle of Grealish's life. If you don't buy the turnaround, I don't blame you one bit. But if you have even a shred of hope for Super Jack, picking him in the 9th or10th round over a CDM or a 3rd defender seems like a no-brainer based on the upside alone.
Savio
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: N/A - He will likely be drafted in many knowledgeable leagues and then dropped weeks later when he doesn't start. He is truly one to "watch," not one to draft.
Analysis: First of all, don't draft this player unless a couple of key circumstances play out in his favor. I will delve more into the Alvarez situation later in this article. However, that's a major lynchpin in determining how Savio's first Premier League season will pan out. While Alvarez is still there, minutes will be hard to come by for the 20-year-old Brazilian phenom. But, given his skillset, he won't be on the sidelines for long. He was a major reason that Disney movie underdog tale Girona will feature in the Champions League this season with 19 combined goals and assists. For now, it's still fairly crowded at the Etihad in the attacking positions. However, with every hint that Alvarez drops about wanting to leave, Savio is that much closer meaningful minutes in this team. His Girona stats converted to Fantrax default fantasy points would give him 12.2 points per start with 8.6 of those being ghost points. Normally, we would caution that those numbers would take a hit were he to start in the Prem, on a side like City... he could even outperform them.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Etihad. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Manchester City players you might want to avoid come draft day.
John Stones
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 69 (98th best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 5.8 (12 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND (Do Not Draft)
Analysis: The days of "John Stones the new-fangled, ball playing inverted fullback" are, unfortunately, over. And even if they weren't, the days of his popping up out of nowhere with a wondergoal are. The John Stones we're currently left with is the one who looked woeful for England over the summer, the one who gets skinned by attackers far too often, and (most importantly) the one whose fantasy numbers indicate that you should not even be considering drafting him at all. With a baffling ADP currently in the 13th round, Stones boasts an impressively bad 5.8 PPS with 4.2 ghosts per start, an expected fantasy points per 90 of 5.9, a 58% reliance on clean sheets for his fantasy points, a ceiling of 12.3 fantasy points, and a floor of -0.6. Why, oh why, are you drafting John Stones?
Ederson
Position: GK
23/24 Points: 197 (13th best GK)
23/24 Points Per Start: 5.2 (32 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: DND (Do Not Draft)
Analysis: Many will see this "Players to Avoid" pick and immediately assume it's because of the transfer links surrounding Ederson. Sure, if that's another thing that we can add to this argument against drafting Ederson, then by all means, include it. But even before the rumors, why are people drafting Ederson?! His ghost points per start and a measly 4.7 and he doesn't keep all that many clean sheets. Even when he does, this season GK clean sheets have been reduced to match that of DEFs. Ederson is truly one of the worst fantasy assets that I see started on a week-to-week basis during the season. And now, in the preseason, he has an ADP in the 13th round (in 12-team leagues). If you're going to take a goalkeeper at all before the 16th round, which you shouldn't... please don't make it Ederson. Please.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Manchester City. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Cityzens that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Man City's fantasy assets.
The Alvarez Elephant in the Room
This has become a nightmare. At the time of writing, Julian Alvarez is the only real viable back-up for Erling Haaland on this team. Pep's love affair with the Norwegian, even during his lengthy goal droughts, has meant that Alvarez has felt left out in the cold far too often. Suddenly, one of the best young talents in the world wants to leave the Etihad in search of more minutes. City have slapped a massive asking price on the Argentinian, meaning that the number of suitors will be severely limited. In the meantime in the EPL Draft game, drafts are starting! And Alvarez's asking price in drafts is similarly staggering. Are you willing to throw away your 3rd round pick if he gets his move away to a landing spot that will almost surely not be in the Premier League? Even if he stays, how much playtime does a squeaky wheel get under Pep? This saga is one I'm staying far away from in drafts.
Left Wing Woes
In my Players to Watch section, I highlighted Jack Grealish. What I failed to mention in that section was the pesky existence of Jeremy Doku, the electric Belgian who lit up the world stage at the Euros. Heading into the 24/25 season, EPL Draft managers who are interested in investing in the LW spot in the City XI will need to grapple with a couple of pressing questions:
Do you think that Doku will get the vast majority of minutes on the wing as a reward for his form over the summer and for hitting the ground so smoothly last summer? He was a fantasy god early in 23/24, but more importantly, he bailed Pep out of a tight spot when Grealish got immediately injured. If Doku is in line for the majority of starts, surely he's worth snapping up at his 3rd round ADP.
Or, are you more a believer in this position on the field? Remember, City players when they start, are WAR monsters. So if you fall into this camp, you're likely taking Doku in the 3rd round (or 4th if you're lucky) and then taking Grealish a round or two earlier than you normally would. This ensures that you have this spot locked up, but ties down one of your bench spots for the entire season. For what it's worth, I think that Grealish gets the first couple of starts to try to prove to Pep that he's turned things around.
To complicate things further, if Pep wants to make room to start both Silva and healthy-again KDB, Foden could scoot out to the LW, benching both of the aforementioned players. To say that this LW spot is fraught for rotation complications is a massive understatement.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Manchester City's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
As far as attacking assets are concerned, on that podcast we always say "start your studs." You didn't draft Manchester City players to bench them... ever. It doesn't matter who the opponent is. So, using that line of logic, City's FWDs have a middling start to the season, while their MIDs have a favourable one according to the fixture difficulty tracker. Start them. With that settled, let's move on to the defenders.
On the defensive side of the field, it's a different story entirely. City face a witches' brew of teams in the first few weeks between a stingy Maresca-led Chelsea, a newly-promoted and attack-minded Ipswich, a conservative Lopetegui West Ham system, the always-plucky Bees of Brentford, and a GW5 meeting with Arsenal. Only vs IPS and WHU would I be excited to start City defensive assets... and even then, probably only Gvardiol. But, if we're talking about draft prospects, I don't hate the idea of targeting players like Walker and Dias late in drafts for those IPS, WHU, and BRF games. Even then, though, doesn't it seems too early in the season to be streaming defenders and hoping for a clean sheet? I think so too. So why are we still talking about City defenders not names Joško?
24/25 Manchester City Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Manchester City lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see City's XI shaking out.
It would be a fool's errand to try to predict a Manchester City starting lineup. As such, let's get into it! Well, as mentioned in my Fantasy Flashback for City, Pep (in his old age) is flexing a bit less in the rotation game. This could be partly due to the fact that Man City have sold more than they've bought over the last few seasons or that he's actually become quite enamoured with a select core of his players. Not usually, one for such sentimentalities, it has certainly helped EPL Draft managers get a better handle on his tactics. Looking at our projections (scroll back up to the top), it's clear that we think Pep will be up to more of the same this season. There will, of course, be Pep Roulette shenanigans to contend with. However, drafting City players is perhaps less risky than it used to be in the dark days we don't speak of anymore.
In defense, it's pretty well settled that Gvardiol and Dias will start the vast majority of games, provided they're healthy. Expect Walker to continue on the flank, but likely rotate out now and again. The final CB spot is more fluid, but most often occupied by Akanji.
The midfield is much more of a minefield as rotation is concerned. Foden, Rodri, De Bruyne, and Bernardo SIlva are the four most often deployed, but across a variety of positions (Rodri aside). Foden is an incredibly safe bet, as he'll start anywhere across the midfield attacking three spots. KDB can be found centrally or out right, depending on the day. And Silva, one of the most underrated players for this teams over the last five years, can play almost anywhere Pep needs him to. This leaves Grealish, Doku, and occasional cameos from Mcatee, Bobb, and Kovacic to complete this midfield.
In attack, we expect Haaland to continue to get the lion's share of the starts. Pep's bold strategy with the man-beast has paid off thus far and Haaland has miraculously avoided any lengthy injuries. This season, with the addition of Savio, things get interesting in attack. Though he can play on the wings as well, he'll be hoping for chances to shine. And, of course, for the time being, Alvarez is still kicking about hoping for some table scraps, as minutes are hard to come by these days when you're a World Cup and Copa America-winning 24-year-old striker who is one of the best players in the world... but I digress.
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