Premier League Summer Transfer Analysis 22/23 [Part Three]

The Premier League signings are already rolling in, so our Summer Transfer Analysis will delve into the prospects of all the major transfers. It’s imperative that you know who the new signings are ahead of the upcoming Fantasy EPL drafts, and what kind of impact they could have on the Premier League! This series of articles will form a key part of our biggest and best Draft Kit yet! Click here for details on how you can access our 22/23 edition.

Check out our 22/23 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you would ever need. Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!!!

The Premier League New Summer Transfer Signings covered here occurred between 11th July and 16th July.

Don't forget to access Part 1 and Part 2 of our Transfer Analysis!

Premier League New Signings Analysis 22/23

We outline each Premier League new signing individually, providing our views on how they will perform this season and a star rating is given based on their upcoming prospects! We use a five-star rating model to rank the new signings; use these hints and tips to help get your Draft Premier League season off to a flyer!

We’ve ranked the prospects based on a star rating, from 1 to 5:

⭐️ = Steer clear

⭐️⭐️ = Wait and see

⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Could be worth a punt

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = Great signing

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ = The Premier League signing you’ve been waiting for!

Gabriel Jesus

Position: Striker (Forward in Fantrax)

Team: Arsenal

Signed From: Man City for £47m

Prospects: Arsenal finally got their man, and a (somewhat) proper #9. Aubameyang and Lacazette have both moved on, and Arsenal were desperate for a man up top to pair with their young wingers. Jesus had 1 of his better seasons last year with City tallying 8 goals and 8 assists in 21 starts. He put up 14.9 fantasy points per start and 10 ghost points per start. But starts were not guaranteed under Pep and his former (assistant) coach, Arteta came calling with likely more playing time and a starring role up top. Jesus's only real competition for minutes currently is Eddie Nketiah, who despite playing well at the end of last season, is less of a finished product and will likely be an understudy to the Brazilian. They even might play alongside each other, something Arteta spoke about during preseason, as a striker duo, or Jesus at RW (when Saka rests or plays elsewhere) like last year. So, Jesus should play plenty but how will he perform? Well Arsenal's attack was much improved last season and even Nketiah and Lacazette put up good numbers last season (11.5 and 9.5 PPS). If Jesus can add more goals to the equation, and the signs from preseason are positive, he should be able to put up 12+ PPS comfortably. According to the oddsmakers, he's 7th most likely to be the top goalscorer next season in the PL. As a starting striker, with good ghost points, in a likely quality attacking team (yet not top of the table) mid 2nd round feels like the right value for Jesus.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Richarlison

Position: Striker/Winger (Forward in Fantrax)

Team: Spurs

Signed From: Everton for £52m

Prospects: Spurs finally get a proper backup for Harry Kane, as well as a versatile attacker who can play across all 3 of the attacking positions that Spurs tend to offer. Richarlison grafted his way to keeping Everton in the Prem last season and put up a respectable 10 fantasy points per start and 7.5 ghosts per start (and higher in the second half under Lampard) along with 10 goals and 5 assists all season. He'll likely have to fight much harder for a starting spot at Spurs, and will likely be on the outside looking in, at least to start this season. His best way into the XI will likely be at RW, currently Kulusevski's spot. But Kulu's has the advantage of a prolific start to life under Conte at the end of the season, so Richarlison may need to settle for the backup/rotation role. If any of the top 3 get injured, he's likely straight in right away. He should also improve on his PPS from last season considering the quality of Spurs' attack in comparison to Everton's. So, starts may come in spurts and he may be frustrating at times, but the upside is there in a good offense, so he could be worth it in the 5th or 6th rounds this season.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐

Luis Sinisterra

Position: Winger (Forwardi n Fantrax)

Team: Leeds

Signed From: Everton for £23m

Prospects: Leeds have their Raphinha replacement in the 23 year old Colombian from Feyenoord. And boy, could he be fun. He averaged over 3 successful dribbles per game and had the highest ghost points of any incoming transfer with 13.3 per 90. On top of that he scored 12 goals and had 7 assists which added up to 18.9 pp90 in the Eredivisie. As you can see in the chart below, he was quite the creator, but also worked hard off the ball as well.

The biggest remaining question is how will he adapt to the Premier league? We've repetitively seen attackers from non top-5 European leagues come and fail in the Prem, but there's reasons to believe Sinisterra will be different. For 1, he fills the stat sheets in all sorts of ways, not just via goals and assists, so if those still dry up he could still have a great floor of dribbles, key passes, shots, and more. Secondly, he should get plenty of opportunity at Leeds, after they've lost Raphinha and are only really left with Jack Harrison and Dan James as their other wing options. Logic suggests Harrison and Sinisterra will start opposite each other with James covering both wings and striker as a backup/rotation option (to them and Bamford). Sinisterra fits the Leeds mold well, running a lot, pressing, creating chances at a high tempo. I'm rather optimistic on him and like him in the 5th or 6th rounds instead of the 7th or 8th where his current ADP lie. Best case this could be the next Raphinha on our hands (with potentially better ghosts). Worst case, we have an inconsistent starter who scores well when he does start. We should note that he got a hamstring injury in preseason, and its yet to be determined how long he'll be out for. Regardless we're optimistic on him and think he's a good mid round forward pick (8th or later).

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐

James Tarkowski

Position: Centre Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Everton

Signed From: Burnley on a free transfer

Prospects: Tarks is a well-known quantity in DraftPL, putting up quality numbers in a poor Burnley team year after year. Now Lampard has brought him in to strengthen a shaky Everton backline. The Toffees do have a unusually large amount of centre-backs but the cream rises, and Tarks should very likely be the one who plays the most minutes by end of season. Lampard has already praised his leadership in preseason, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he was their next captain after Coleman sails off into the sunset eventually. Scoring-wise, Tarks has scored over 9 pp90 and 7 fpp90 over the last 3 seasons at Burnley. Burnley do play significantly different football to Everton, in terms of packing it in and inviting pressure (that Tarks then had to soak up) but he should still have plenty of work to do, especially in a leaky, potentially young backline. I'd expect both his ghost and overall fantasy points to take a hit due to the volume of work and increased goals conceded, but he should still be a useful fantasy asset, particularly if Everton can figure themselves out. A proper 6 to replace Allan would do wonders too. I think you can likely get Tarkowski in the 6th round and feel good about it.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐

Tyrell Malacia

Position: Left Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Man United

Signed From: Feyenoord for £14m

Prospects: Ten Hag has brought in some Dutch competition for Luke Shaw at left back. Malacia is a quick, aggressive, and versatile 22 year old who should be a good fit for ETH's system. He has already started some games in preseason and looks to have quickly surpassed Alex Telles on the depth chart. I think Luke Shaw is still likely to have the starting role to start the season but Malacia will continue pushing him, and in the case of an injury or downturn in form, will steal his spot. Unlike Shaw or Telles, Malacia likely will not be on set pieces so he'll have to create points from open play. United's defense should also theoretically improve from last season so clean sheets will be easier to come by. I think Malacia is a good punt and hope he wins the starting job quickly, but I wouldn't throw too much draft capital at him cause there's no proof that he'll score particularly well even if he does start. Still, potential starting United full back. 12th or later seems reasonable, but many United fans might bite earlier.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Kalvin Phillips

Position: Central Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)

Team: Manchester City

Signed From: Leeds for £44m

Prospects: Kalvin had a wonderful couple of years at Leeds, where despite some recent injuries and downturns in form, he left a beloved and very valuable member of team. Pep has himself a proper backup for Rodri as a 6/regista type, after Fernandinho left, and another potential 8 alongside KDB, Bilva, Gundogan, and the like. Kalvin very likely will not be a preferred option at City, particularly the first half of the season, but he'll be a capable backup/rotation/injury option when the opportunity strikes. He only scored 4.8 pps last season, but had over 8 in 19/20 when he took most of the sets for Leeds. Naturally, playing for City lends itself to many attacking points, as we saw often for Rodri last season, so I'd much expect his PPS to go up a lot. But his expected minutes leave much to be desired, so unlike Gundogan who likely gets enough starts to be a viable fantasy option, Kalvin is nothing more for now than a late round punt and pray.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️1/2

Aaron Hickey

Position: Right/Left Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Brentford

Signed From: Bologna for £15m

Prospects: Brentford have found their starting right back after trying Canos and Ajer their last season. Hickey is a very promising young talent who started 34 times at the age of 19 for Bologna. He chipped in with 5 goals and 1 assist, but only put up 6.1 pp90 and 5.5 gpp90. He'll likely have a nice upwards trajectory but I wouldn't yet waste any draft capital on him.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Clement Lenglet

Position: Centre Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Spurs

Signed From: Barcelona on loan

Prospects: Conte has brought in competition/cover at LCB after going a full season with only Ben Davies there (who performed admirably, mind you). Lenglet comes from Barca where he barely played (7 starts) and put up mediocre numbers: 3.8pp90 and 5 gpp90. He'll likely step it up at Spurs, but he's not a high volume defender, nor attacker. He passes well, which Conte could like, but won't help you a ton in fantasy. He'll likely start as backup to Davies to begin the season but could rotate in, or even steal the spot entirely. I wouldn't advise drafting or picking him up until (and if) he ever wins the role consistently.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Giulian Biancone

Position: Right/Centre Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Nottingham Forest

Signed From: Troyes for £9m

Prospects: Forest brought in a 2nd CB after Niakhate (below) with Biancone. In Ligue 1 last season, he started 26 times and put up 8.2 pp09 and 8.6 gpp90 playing right and centre back. He's a very versatile defender who can play both wide/wing back rolls as well as in the centre of defense. He may be more of a depth/rotation signing as Neco, Toffolo, and the 4 CB's may be preferred to him in their respective positions, but he'll be a decent streamer when he does play.

Rating: ⭐️⭐️

Moussa Niakhate

Position: Centre Back (Defender in Fantrax)

Team: Nottingham Forest

Signed From: Mainz for £9m

Prospects: Forest started their backline strengthening with the 26 year old centre back from Mainz in the Bundesliga. He's a quick, strong defender who's confident in possession, but is not a very aggressive defender. In 29 starts he scored 4 goals and had 8 clean sheets with 7.3 pp90 and 6.8 gpp90. Because he's playing for the relegation-threatened Forest, I would not advise drafting him.

Rating: ⭐️⭐

Joao Pahlinha

Position: Central Defensive Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)

Team: Fulham

Signed From: Sporting for £18m

Prospects: A lovely coup for Fulham, Pahlinha represents a sizable upgrade in the anchor role in their midfield. He'll help out the defense, but not anyone in fantasy much, as he only put up 5.1pp90 and 4.9 gpp90 in the UCL last season.

Rating: ⭐️

Tyler Adams

Position: Central Defensive Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)

Team: Leeds

Signed From: Sporting for £18m

Prospects: Another CDM that can likely be ignored in fantasy but is a good signing in reality. Adams put up 5.3pp90 and 4.4 gpp90 in the Bundesliga. He should replace Kalvin admirably for Leeds.

Rating: ⭐️

Romeo Lavia

Position: Central Defensive Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)

Team: Southampton

Signed From: Man City for £11m

Prospects: Yet another CDM, but this time younger. Lavia was a Man City youngster who Southampton have plucked in their youth revolution. He may compete for starts with/alongside Oriel Romeu this season, but he's 1 for another time.

Rating: ⭐️

Flynn Downes

Position: Central Midfielder (Midfielder in Fantrax)

Team: West Ham

Signed From: Swansea for £10m

Prospects: A likely backup to Declan Rice and Soucek, Downes can be ignored in Fantrax. 4.9 pp90 and 3.4 gpp90 in the Championship in 21/22 doesn't help either.

Rating: ⭐️

FBRef and Opta (via Fantrax) data used for performance data. Transfermarkt data used for evaluation and transfer values.