Southampton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Draft Genie
- Jul 28, 2024
- 8 min read
Updated: Jul 30, 2024
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Southampton's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Southampton Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Southampton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Southampton Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Southampton Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at the Saints prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Southampton player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of Saints' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Southampton fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
The Saints don't exactly have many assets to get excited about. Adam Armstrong and Will Smallbone are expected to be the best assets for the Saints, but only offer up projected PPS's of 7.9 and 7.4, respectively. Outside of these two, the rest of the Saints assets are either punts or streamers at best. You have to hope you can find the next JWP here, but it seems unlikely. Assets like Fraser, Edozie, and Sulemana could all offer late round upside, but there are honestly better players to target over these 3 given they lack any sort of guaranteed minutes. Defensively, there isn't anything to be excited about other than maybe Jan Bednerak and his projected 5.7 PPS but that will be discussed later. Former Saints hero Lallana is back, but can we really expect him to be anything more than a streamer....at best? A projected PPS of 4.2 makes him not even worth a pick in the 16th round. All in all, prospects do not look good fantasy-wise for the Saints, unless we see a big name signing come in.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Southampton players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Jan Bednerak
Position: DEF
Recommended Draft Pick: 180 or higher (12 Team League: Round 16)
Analysis: Bednerak isn't exactly predicted to be a DEF1 or 2, or even a DEF3 for that matter, but I do have hope that the tall CB can provide some value this season. Bednerak is known for his aerial prowess and set-piece threat, but can Saints keep enough goals out of their own net for him to have value? In his last spell in the EPL in the 22/23 season Bednerak averaged just 4.4 PPS BUT he did manage to average a solid 8 ghosts per game. Add in a few returns and clean sheets here in there and he could be a solid option throughout patches. Usually I leave drafting defender until late...very late, and Bednerak is on my radar as someone to grab in the last round or two. With the new scoring change not taking away 2 points for the first goal conceded Bednerak does have a chance to have a very solid floor if Saints can avoid conceding 2+ goals in most of their matchups. Saints have a mixed start to the season schedule-wise, but they do have some fixtures where a potential clean sheet is possible, making Bednerak a decent DEF3/4 to start off the season.
Will Smallbone
Position: MID
Recommended Draft Pick: 135 - 150 (12 Team League: Round 12-13)
Analysis: Smallbone has the potential to be Saints best fantasy asset, but this is really not saying much. Smallbone right now will have a near set-piece monopoly, which usually leads to a decent floor for fantasy assets. The question is can Saints really produce enough set-pieces/attacking chances to make him any better than his projected 7.4 PPS? For a midfielder this is really no better than streamer level, but I still believe he is a player to punt on as a MID6/7 late on in the draft. Instead of going for a CDM in Mainoo, for example, I would much rather gamble that Saints sign a few more attacking players, which in turn could increase Smallbone's value. Smallbone is one of those that you should drop if he doesn't produce better than streamer numbers after 4-5 gameweeks. Prospects are bleak for Saints fantasy-wise, but you can do a lot worse than punting on a player who has a near set-piece monopoly on a team with some tall defenders on it.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at St. Mary's. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Southampton players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Adam Armstrong
Position: FWD
Recommended Draft Pick: 157 - 168 (12 Team League: Round 14)
Analysis: Armstrong was Saints standout player last season with 21 goals and 13 assists, but as we have seen Championship numbers don't usually translate into the EPL, especially when it comes to attacking returns. It is worth noting that last time Armstrong was in the EPL in the 22/23 season with the Saints he managed 14 starts and a disastrous 3.4 PPS and 2.9 ghost points per start. He is very very goal dependent and there is no reason to think this will change. Saints as a whole lack talented attacking options, and they seem like they will need to win games 1-0 to rack up their points as opposed to 3-1. This was seen in their Playoff final win vs. Leeds. Armstrong only averaged 1.3 Key Passes per game last season...his best "ghosting" stat. I don't see any change in the way he plays to make me think all of a sudden he will be getting you a 6+ point floor. Even as a FWD4 Armstrong serves little value. He will be a good streamer in friendlier fixtures and if you need an upside play once/if Saints find their feet in the EPL. Until then I recommend drafting/streaming an extra defender or midfielder. If you really want to draft Armstrong then look to pick him up in the last 3 rounds otherwise stay clear.
All Other Defenders
Position: DEF
Recommended Draft Pick: DND
Analysis: This will be short and sweet. Outside of Bednerak and his ghosting potential no other Saints defender should be drafted. While we may see them become useable streamers here and there, there is no reason to draft any other one. I see Walker-Peters being drafted in rounds 10-12 in mock drafts, and this shouldn't be happening. In Saints last spell in the EPL he managed just 2.4!!!! points per start in his 30 starts with just 5 ghosts per games. Saints could start off the season decently conceding just 1-2 per game, in which case you can pick up a defender/keeper to stream. Outside of a round 16 punt on their best ghoster, stay clear of this lot.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Southampton. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Saints that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Southampton's fantasy assets.
Where Will the Goals Come From?
There is really only 1 question to discuss and it is the most important one. Where will Saints get their goals from? Adam Armstrong will be leading the line and should get 10+ goals, but outside of him who else will contribute? You have potential players like Smallbone, Edozie, Sulemana, and Fraser who will be asked to chip in but none of these players have shown they can be prolific 10+ goal scorers. In order for Saints to stay up I believe they will need at least 2 players to crack 10 goals and 1-2 close behind. Che Adams has one foot out the door, which is a big concern given he was their best attacker last time in the EPL, and there is little news on how they will be replacing him. If Saints do not sign a goal scoring midfielder/winger, I expect this season to be full of offensive struggles for a team that will need to keep as many clean sheets as possible.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Southampton's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
The Saints' first 5 games are a mixed bag. They come up against Top 4 hopefuls Newcastle and Manchester United, but also have friendlier games vs. Forest, Brentford, and Ipswich. Saints assets in general are very low in my rankings and draft board, but this early season fixture list doesn't change anything. Punting on Smallbone and Bednerak becomes a better idea with 3 potential decent games for them, but outside of that it could be a rough starts for the Saints if they do not hit the ground running. See how their first two fixtures vs. Newcastle and Forest play out to decide if any of their assets could be worth a stream in their third fixture vs. Brentford.
24/25 Southampton Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Southampton lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see the Saints XI shaking out.
Here is how Saints should start the season. There isn't a whole lot of goal scoring in that attack as discussed above, but expect Fraser and Smallbone to be given big creative roles. I do think Lallana can win the starting spot over Aribo, but that may take a few games and neither will provide good fantasy value. There are a lot of questions over the RW role with Sulemana my pick right now, but I would not be surprised to see a new signing there in gameweek 1, but it remains to be seen who that will be. The biggest 50/50 is who will start at LB with new signing Taylor my pick for now, but Manning will challenge for that spot, and he could even win it throughout the season.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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