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Writer's pictureRyan Barnes

Aston Villa Team Preview 23/24

Updated: Aug 8, 2023

Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! Here comes Unai Emery's new look Aston Villa.


Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.

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Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more!


Aston Villa Team Preview 23/24

Check out our in-depth look at Aston Villa's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!


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Fantasy Flashback

Let's review how Aston Villa players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?


Note: The following table is interactive. Desktop users can apply the Filter, Group, and Sort buttons to arrange the data to their preferences. Mobile users can tap on a player card to view all data points. The table can be reset to its default state by refreshing the page.


Aston Villa had a very strange season. As you'll read several times below, it was truly beauty and the beast under Unai Emery and Stevie G. So any analysis/recap must therefore be broken up into those two parts. Fantasy-wise, it gets even more odd. While Emery vastly improved the team and its results, the fantasy points were really confined to a few players, largely Ollie Watkins. As you can see above, only 7 players had 6+ starts with 7+ points per start.


Only a few players stood out fantasy-wise (again... other than Watkins). Erstwhile scorers McGinn, Buendia, & others put up very mediocre numbers under Emery (both just under 7 PPS). Douglas Luiz became a solid midfielder, given his set piece dominance and eye for goal, but with the signing of Youri Tielemans from Leicester City, will he be as prolific? Jacob Ramsey also stepped up, showing an eye for goal and proving his fantasy worth at the tail end of the season. But his injury at the Euros this summer will stunt that growth at least for a few months. Alex Moreno is in a similar boat. He turned into a prized asset in the second half of the season after joining in the January transfer window but suffered a bad injury that may keep him out at the start of this campaign.


Fantasy-wise, Aston Villa is the opposite of a team like the Arsenal. Emery's system does not seem conducive to spreading the points around. Unless it is tweaked and/or new faces come in to perform different roles, this will likely continue, making it difficult to justify rostering many outfield players not named Ollie Watkins.


Overall Team Performance

The Villans stagnated last Fall as Steven Gerrard ran out of ideas, dropping into the relegation zone before Unai Emery came running to the rescue in late October. When the Spaniard took over, Villa was hovering above the relegation zone, in 17th place with 9 points from 11 games and -9 goal difference. They quickly transformed into a very organized and difficult team to beat, with Watkins going on a ridiculous scoring streak, and finished in the European spots (7th place & Conference League qualification). It was quite an achievement and Villa fans are rightly excited for their prospects coming into this new campaign.


How did he do it? Well, he instituted his system of a 4-2-2-2 in which Watkins & Bailey operated as forwards slightly out wide with a narrow midfield of Buendia & McGinn and some overlaps from the fullbacks (Moreno/Digne & Cash/Young). Ramsey was the wild card as a wide-left midfielder, pitching in with goals. Ramsey declared after the Bournemouth game in March: “It is different under this boss. My role is to get forward, create chances and get goals and assists. I did that today.”


Thus far, Emery has only brought in defensive reinforcements - Alex Moreno (LB) in the January window, and Pau Torres, a highly coveted CB from Villareal, this summer. With CB Diego Carlos coming back from injury and a fit Matty Cash, the manager will be spoilt for choice when picking the back 4. Mings, Konsa, Torres, Carlos will be battling it out for two spots. My hunch is that Torres will partner Mings (despite them both being left footed), at least at first, but that could change as Diego Carlos regains fitness. Either way, we should expect a bit more defensive solidity/clean sheets. One would anticipate more business this window, especially up front. I do not expect Leon Bailey to be the preferred strike partner for Ollie Watkins. Highly touted attacking winger Moussa Diaby from Bayer Leverkusen has been floated as a potential alternative - that would be an attractive proposition. Colombian starlet Jhon Duran got some minutes last season and could be in line for some more. He is one to keep an eye on but attacking reinforcements are likely enroute.

 

Fantasy Forecast

Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Aston Villa player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Villans' early-season fixtures.

 

23/24 Player Projections

Below, you'll find our season projections for Aston Villa fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjTotFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.

No surprises here, largely tracks the analysis above and projects the same dynamics to continue - very top heavy, weighted toward Ollie Watkins (projected over 11 PPS). Moreno and Ramsey, who are currently suffering from injury issues, then showed the most promise with over 9 PPS each. After that, it's a crapshoot. It remains to be seen how Tielemans & Luiz fit in and the set pieces are up in the air. Again, everyone other than Watkins, unfortunately, should be viewed with caution.

 

3 Players to Watch

We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Aston Villa that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.

Youri Tielemans stats
Douglas Luiz stats

Youri Tielemans/Douglas Luiz

Position: Midfielders

22/23 Points: 234.5 (43rd best midfielder) & 320 (20th best midfielder)

22/23 Points Per Start: 8.4 (27 starts) & 9.0 (33 starts)

Recommended Draft Picks: 90-100 (12 Team League: 8th/9th Round)

Analysis: Who will win this steel cage match for starts and set pieces? Villa stalwart Dougie Luiz and new boy Youri Tielemans have a similar profile on paper - holding midfielders with attacking flair and a knack for set pieces. So did Emery sign Tielemans to rotate with Luiz or to somehow play together? With fellow midfielder Ramsey injured (see below), Emery may find a way for them to play together. Fantasy-wise, Luiz had a fairly good season with 9 PPS - he took just over half of the team's set pieces when he started and derived roughly a quarter of his fantasy points from them. While Tielemans had a slightly down year at relegated Leicester with 8.4 PPS and just 18% of set pieces, he historically has more upside, especially if given set piece duty. The likely outcome is Luiz keeps the majority of sets when he plays but the spot is up for grabs (Moreno & McGinn can also take a few). The preseason lineup should shed some light on this competition for minutes and sets. It's one to monitor; neither could end up being worth the risk or one could be a value pick.


Jacob Ramsey

Position: Midfielder

22/23 Points: 303.5 (24th best midfielder)

22/23 Points Per Start: 9.4 (31 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 90-100 (12 Team League: 8th/9th Round)

Analysis: Let's get it out of the way - the elephant in the room is the injury. Rambo will miss the beginning of the season with a broken metatarsal. The early prognosis is a 10 week absence, which would mean a mid-September return to training, with his first start likely coming in late September/beginning of October. This is certainly a blow to his rising fantasy prospects, which had put a healthy Ramsey in the 4th/5th round of most drafts. This long layoff likely relegates him to the 8th or 9th round for those who don't mind investing/burning a roster spot for the first few months of the campaign. Injury aside, Ramsey became a dangerous wildcard for Emery last season and finished with 6 goals, 7 assists, and a PPS over 9. He is fairly attacking return dependent, however, with a ghost point per start average of around 6. Let's see how he recovers from this knock; hopefully he can crack on.


Emi Martinez

Position: Goalkeeper

22/23 Points: 279.25 (6th best goalkeeper)

22/23 Points Per Start: 7.9 (36 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 160-165 (12 Team League: Mid Round 14)

Analysis: His exploits/shithousery from the World Cup in Qatar are still fresh in our minds. But it's important to point out how clutch Emi Martinez was during the Emery-inspired purple patch last season. He was a fantasy stud in 20/21, delivering a tasty 10 PPS, before falling back to earth the following season with a miserable 5.3 PPS. Last season, he met in the middle with just under PPS. The Villa defense tightened up after Stevie G upped sticks, bagging 9 clean sheets under Emery, which obviously helped Martinez. With Pau Torres & Diego Carlos shoring up the back line, this may continue, propelling Emi to his prior glory. He becomes a sneaky good GK pick after the first few marquee names (Alisson, Raya, & Leno) go off the draft board.


Honorable Mention(s):

A few decent fantasy scorers may emerge from the mist. The aforementioned young FWD, Jhon Duran, will provide cover for Watkins and may even come in for Bailey when he inevitably gets a knock. Matty Cash, erstwhile fantasy darling, will be back from injury. And while his fantasy scores were horrific (below 5 PPS), he has shown he can score decently and could see some joy on the right side. Finally, it will be interesting to see how new CB Pau Torres scores in Fantrax; the Spaniard might become a good streamer when Villa has decent matchups.

 

3 Players to Avoid

It's not all sunshine and rainbows at Villa Park. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Aston Villa players you might want to avoid come draft day.

John McGinn stats

John McGinn

Position: Midfielder

22/23 Points: 208.5 (49th best midfielder)

22/23 Points Per Start: 6.8 (30 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: N/A (not worth drafting)

Analysis: After finishing the 21/22 campaign with a flurry of good performances, I was suckered into drafting McGinn in the 5th round. This turned out to be a big mistake. He was poor under Gerrard and, bar a few impressive performances (against me, of course), the Scot was also a dud with Emery. As we've discussed, there just aren't many points to be had outside of Ollie Watkins - the midfield is barren, unless you take set pieces (Luiz) or pose a goal threat (Ramsey). The current version of McGinn in the Unai system really doesn't do either. Let someone else fall victim to name recognition and draft the captain.


Emi Buendia

Position: Midfielder

22/23 Points: 236.5 (41st best midfielder)

22/23 Points Per Start: 8.5 (23 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: N/A (not worth drafting)

Analysis: It pains me to write this about such a fantasy legend but the truth hurts. Emi Buendia is all but finished as a fantasy asset. We all just need to forget about his previous exploits with Norwich City in which he ghosted for fun and realize that the version of the player that we've been pining for is never returning. Buendia has shown some glimpses and nicked a few attacking returns but the fantasy points have been few and far between. His 6.8 PPS is below that of Ryan Christie & Thomas Partey, both of whom are not worthy of a draft pick, so why should we waste a selection on the diminutive Argentine? Nostalgia only goes so far.


Alex Moreno

Position: Defender

22/23 Points: 158 (37th best defender)

22/23 Points Per Start: 10.2 (14 starts)

Recommended Draft Pick: 65-70 (12 Team League: 6th Round)

Analysis: A revelation in the January transfer window, Moreno came over from Spain and almost immediately made the LB role his own, supplanting a former ghost point God, Lucas Digne. Dropping double digit points per start in your first few months in a new league is quite impressive. So it might seem harsh to put him in the avoid category. The only reason for this is his relatively high draft position and injury concerns. Moreno petered out a bit at the end of the season before picking up a nasty hamstring injury, which ended up requiring surgery. While it looks like he may be back in August, he'll likely miss the preseason and potentially a few opening games. And you never know the full impact of knocks like these. Moreno will likely end up reverting back to his good form, but you'll likely have to wait longer than you should for that high of a draft pick. Avoid before the 6th/7th round.


Honorable Mention(s):

Leon Bailey sticks out like a sore thumb here. He had so much promise coming into the Premier League, scoring off the bench in his first few cameos. And then he largely stunk up the joint ever since. Even as a starter under Emery, he has been a poor fantasy scorer, finishing the campaign with 7 PPS (mediocre CDM numbers). Just avoid him entirely. The CBs (Mings & Konsa) had some good days but both failed to average more than 6 points per start and even if they somehow keep their starting roles (both won't), they are streamer level/undraftable.

 

3 Question Marks

Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Aston Villa. These are 3 questions surrounding the Villains that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Aston Villa's fantasy assets.


Teams Figure Out Unai - We've seen cases before in which a new manager comes in guns blazing, picking up results, and then loses steam the following season. Marcelo Bielsa at Leeds springs to mind. Unai Emery has a great CV - particularly in the Europa League - that shows he isn't really a one hit wonder. However, teams will start to figure him out and he'll have to devise alternative styles of play. It is difficult to imagine that Villa fully sustains that new manager bounce/second half purple patch from last season. If not, Villain fantasy assets could struggle. As mentioned before, there just aren't enough points to go around as is. It will be interesting to see how Emery adapts in season 2.


Europe - The onset of European football can often be a big hindrance, especially for squads without much depth. Emery is, of course, the Europa League whisperer, having won it 4 times. He'll definitely want to bring continental silverware back to Villa Park and win his first Conference League title (the Europa League's little brother). So he will devote resources to the Thursday/Sunday slog. Will this weigh on the likes of Ollie Watkins and Jacob Ramsey? Will injuries, which are already impacting the preseason (Moreno & Ramsey), pile up from the fatigue/hectic travel schedule? Time will tell how well they manage the added rigors of European football, but it certainly isn't a positive for Villa's fantasy prospects.


Ollie Dependence - As we've discussed, Ollie Watkins was a monster under Emery in the latter part of the campaign. From mid-January to mid-April, he bagged 11 goals in 12 games. But when he doesn't score, they unsurprisingly struggle. Given how streaky he is, can they continue to rely solely on him in the long term? They'll need to spread the production out a bit and it's incumbent upon Emery to find a way to do that. An Ollie-dependent Villa side with a European albatross around its neck likely won't be able to replicate the success of the second half of 22/23.

 

Early-Season Fixture Difficulty

The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Aston Villa's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.

Aston Villa Fixture Difficulty Tracker
The colors above represent fixture difficulty by position with red being the most difficult and green being most favorable. The number in parentheses represents the average fantasy points (in Fantrax Default Scoring) scored by players in that position.

Aston Villa has a pretty tough schedule early doors, starting with one of the worst fixtures in the Premier League - Newcastle away. It gets easier after that with a tasty matchup against Everton at Villa Park and then two tricky away games at Burnley & Liverpool before coming home to face Palace. Swings and roundabouts. It's a mixed bag - I wouldn't target or avoid Villa assets based solely on these early fixtures. However, given Moreno's knock, which could keep him out of the first few games, Digne, if he isn't sold, could be a good shout v Everton & Burnley.


 

23/24 Aston Villa Predicted Lineup

The following lineup represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Villa in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this should provide a reasonable guide for who will be the preferred starters for the majority of Premier League matches this season.




 
 
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