Nottingham Forest Team Preview 23/24
- Gavin Wright
- Jul 24, 2023
- 14 min read
Updated: Aug 7, 2023
Welcome to The Draft Society’s team-by-team previews, a vital part of the 23/24 Draft Kit! These articles will provide a one-stop-shop for all the important Fantasy EPL themes from a Fantrax perspective. With players to watch, players to avoid, points projections and early season fixtures analysis, we've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League Team Previews will help set you up to dominate your draft! Now, let's get stuck in to Nottingham Forest's fantasy outlook for 23/24.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more!
Nottingham Forest Team Preview 23/24
Check out our in-depth look at Nottingham Forest's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Flashback
Let's review how Nottingham Forest players fared in 22/23, with an emphasis on their Draft Premier League fantasy assets. But, we'll also discuss any pertinent info regarding managerial tactics, formation, injuries, etc. What can we learn from their performance in the last campaign?
Note: The following table is interactive. Desktop users can apply the Filter, Group, and Sort buttons to arrange the data to their preferences. Mobile users can tap on a player card to view all data points. The table can be reset to its default state by refreshing the page.
Nottingham Forest made their long-awaited return to the Premier League in dramatic fashion, earning their way in through the Championship playoffs. Steve Cooper was the savior for the club while they were in the second tier, guiding them from the relegation zone all the way to promotion in less than a season in charge. The Reds weren’t expected to stay up, but through some heavy investment in the transfer window (where they brought in more than two full squads of new signings over the summer, with more reinforcements arriving in January) and some tactical adjustments from Cooper, they managed to survive the drop and retain their place in the Prem for 23/24.
The biggest factor for Forest in both real-life and fantasy terms was the emergence of Morgan Gibbs-White (a late summer transfer from Wolves) as the team’s talisman. MGW was at the heart of everything for Forest, including set piece duties, which propelled him to a surprise top 20 overall finish. There weren’t too many other players to write home about in the first half of the season, though there were some signs of the team’s potential after the World Cup. Brennan Johnson was an inconsistent performer throughout the season, though he did put in an impressive four-game run to begin the new year where he delivered 3 goals and an assist. Serge Aurier managed to take the starting right back spot from Neco Williams and performed adequately. January arrivals Felipe and Danilo brought some much-needed quality to the side as well, and Taiwo Awoniyi stepped up with some crucial late-season goals to help Forest survive.
All that said, none of these players outside of MGW were particularly great fantasy performers. Felipe and Aurier offered great ghost point production, but Forest only kept one clean sheet in the games they started from February to the end of the season, which dented their value. Danilo and Awoniyi were very reliant on attacking returns to put up scores you’d be happy with, and Johnson cooled off significantly to end the season, only managing one double-digit return in the last 10 matches. Anyone else on the squad offered streamer-level fantasy value at best over the course of the season.
Overall Team Performance
With so many new signings, it understandably took Steve Cooper a while to find a settled squad. The manager actually showed quite a bit of tactical flexibility throughout the season, employing four different systems at various points of the campaign, to varying levels of success. The team was propping up the rest of the table after 15 matches and looked like a pretty safe bet to drop back down the the Championship. Cooper, with his job on the line, managed to get some crucial results around the halfway point of the season and buy himself time to bring in some reinforcements. Even then, they fell back into the relegation zone heading into the final stretch of the season, only securing their survival with a shock 1-0 win over Arsenal in gameweek 37. By the skin of their teeth, as the saying goes.
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 23/24 season, we've got Nottingham Forest player projections, 3 key players to keep an eye on, 3 players we're staying away from, 3 question marks surrounding the club at this moment, and an analysis of the Tricky Trees' early-season fixtures.
23/24 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Nottingham Forest fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as past performance, fixture difficulty ratings, anticipated minutes played, and more. PPS (Points Per Start) and ProjTotFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
Given their extreme activity in last year’s transfer window, Forest understandably have been more in the business of offloading players so far this summer than bringing new ones in. There haven’t been too many high-profile departures in terms of available minutes for new players in the starting eleven, though Renan Lodi has left the club and opens up the left back position for new competitors like the fit-again Omar Richards and free transfer Ola Aina. As was the case last season, Gibbs-White looks set to be the key man, with only Felipe joining him above the 30-start mark in the crowded squad of players seeking first-team minutes.
Fantasy prospects outside of these two don’t look great, to be honest. Unless you’re feeling positive about the prospects of some of the fringe players from last season breaking through or we see any exciting newcomers signed between now and the beginning of the season, you may be better served looking for some high-upside lottery tickets (look for players with higher ProjWAR numbers) from other clubs in the latter stages of your drafts and monitoring early-season results to see how Forest players get on.
3 Players to Watch
We've highlighted 3 players (and some honorable mentions) from Nottingham Forest that we're keeping an eye on. Some players mentioned below may be sleepers. Some may be up-and-coming youngsters. Some may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these 3 in EPL Draft Fantasy.
Felipe
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 115.25 (68th best defender - January transfer)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.1 (15 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 80-90 (12 Team League: Round 7/8)
Analysis: As discussed above, Felipe brought some much needed defensive assurance to the Nottingham Forest back line for the second half of the season, but his presence alone wasn’t enough to result in any more than the one survival-securing clean sheet against Arsenal in the penultimate game of the season. Steve Cooper has largely the same squad to choose from this season, which doesn’t bode particularly well for Forest’s defensive output magically improving.
Thankfully, Felipe is a ghost point monster, ranking exceptionally well compared to other defenders for defending and duels. His solid floor of points means you can rely on him to put up positive scores even when the team concedes multiple goals; in fact, he never scored in the negative across his 15 starts last season. Felipe is also an aerial threat in set piece situations, so has the potential to contribute with goals, assists and key passes in addition to his stellar defensive stats. There was a slight dip in the former Atletico Madrid defender’s scores when Cooper shifted to a formation with three center backs as opposed to two, which is something to keep an eye on and factor in accordingly. Still, if Felipe can improve upon his hilariously bad percentile rank for clean sheets and goals conceded, you’re looking at a set-and-forget defender all season.
Danilo
Position: Midfielder
22/23 Points: 98 (99th best midfielder - January transfer)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.7 (12 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 145+ (12 Team League: Round 13 or later)
Analysis: While there was more attention and excitement around Forest’s signing of another Brazilian midfielder from Palmeiras in the January transfer window, it was Danilo who ultimately ended up being the one worth rostering for fantasy. Most frequently used as a holding midfielder prior to his move to Forest, Danilo found himself utilized as more of a box-to-box midfielder charged with linking play between defense and attack. The 22 year-old displayed more of an attacking flair than was expected, contributing three goals and two assists in just 13 appearances for the Reds. Danilo didn’t offer much in the way of other contributions, however, with a lowly 4.5 ghost points per start. That makes him less one to watch in terms of being an undervalued gem and more one to watch to see how Steve Cooper chooses to utilize him next season. For now, he’s probably best left to the end of your draft or undrafted, but he can be a useful stream in good fixtures, of which Forest have a few in the early stages of next season.
Anthony Elanga
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 34.5 (80th best forward)
22/23 Points Per Start: 4.1 (5 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 145+ (12 Team League: Round 13 or later)
Analysis: At the time of writing, Forest's pursuit of Elanga is just that, though rumors are strong that a £15m move from Manchester United is a near guarantee to go through. We didn't see much of the young forward under Erik ten Hag last season, though he did manage 21 appearances (14 of which were starts) in the 21/22 season under Ralf Rangnick. Having just turned 21, it would be unfair to judge his performances from two seasons ago as an indicator of his potential as a fantasy asset, but that's not saying he didn't have his moments where his potential shone through even as a 19 year-old. Forest are in desperate need of additional goal threats in their side after only having scored 38 in total last season (only 5 teams scored fewer), and Elanga has a definite eye for goal. He has typically been used as a left winger, but can play on the opposite side or through the middle. It will be interesting to monitor how Cooper will use him, especially given his more narrow attacking setups that were common last season. Another factor to consider in where/whether you draft Elanga is the transfer situation around Brennan Johnson, who is reportedly a target for Brentford (more on that in a bit). If Johnson leaves, Elanga should have a much clearer path to the starting eleven. Given the relative scarcity of forwards, it may not be a bad idea to take a punt on him even if the Johnson transfer hasn't gone through by the time you draft.
Honorable Mention:
As discussed, Renan Lodi's departure opens up a left back berth that needs filling. Harry Toffolo is the subject of a betting scandal of an even greater magnitude than Ivan Toney's, Omar Richards has just come back from a season-long injury and new signing Ola Aina is 1) not the same level as Lodi and 2) better suited to playing on the right side (though he can play on the left). All of these factors may see a revival for early-season fantasy favorite Neco Williams to start the season. Keep an eye on this situation, as Williams is the type of defender who can deliver double digit scores even in the absence of a clean sheet.
The goalkeeper situation is very much in the air at the moment, though reports have Forest pushing for a return for Dean Henderson. Prior to picking up a long-term injury, the Man United loanee was one of the league's best shot-stoppers and a viable option as a set-and-forget keeper in leagues using Fantrax Default Scoring. If he does make his return, he's a decent option for your squad in the last quarter of the draft.
3 Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at City Ground. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight 3 fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the 3 Nottingham Forest players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Serge Aurier
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 162.25 (35th best defender)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.0 (22 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: Don't
Analysis: I may hurt some feelings with this one, but Aurier is not a good fantasy asset on this Forest team. Yes, he had a few big scores last season, but let's dig into those to paint a picture of they type of player the former Spurs fullback is for fantasy purposes: Of the 6 double-digit scores Aurier managed across his 22 starts in 22/23, 5 of them were in matches where Forest kept a clean sheet. He scored a goal in the sixth. His two highest scores last season (22.5 and 20.5) came in wins over Southampton and Leicester, two of the teams to be relegated. Points are points, but this perhaps speaks to the fact that he's better suited to being a streamer in easier match-ups than a more permanent fixture on your roster. His highest score otherwise (even with a clean sheet or goal) was 13.75. Excluding the 12 points he scored in the clean sheet victory over Arsenal in GW37, Aurier closed out the last two month's of the season with the following run of points: 2, 2.25, 5.25, 4.75, 2.75, 2.25, 1.75, 1.5. Don't let yourself get caught up in the name value of a player who used to be a much better fantasy asset (when he was on a much better team). Look instead to bring him in from the waiver wire or in a trade if he shows signs of getting back to his best self and you believe he can sustain them.
Moussa Niakhate
Position: Defender
22/23 Points: 44 (136th best defender)
22/23 Points Per Start: 3.1 (14 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: Don't
Analysis: A pre-season elbow dislocation may be a blessing in disguise for any fantasy managers who were considering drafting Niakhate. The French CB caused a stir in the second week of the 22/23 season with a massive 19.75 points against West Ham but he then missed the next 24 Premier League matches with a serious hamstring injury. Fantasy managers hoping to see a repeat performance from his early season haul were massively let down, with Niakhate failing to score more than 8.25 points (you guessed it, in the 1-0 win vs. Arsenal) in any of the 12 Premier League matches he featured in upon his return. There may come a day where we see Niakhate hit the ghost point jackpot again, but it's best to treat that amazing performance as fool's gold and look elsewhere for some defensive stability and/or upside for your squad.
Brennan Johnson
Position: Forward
22/23 Points: 257.5 (17th best forward)
22/23 Points Per Start: 7.6 (33 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 110-120 (12 Team League: Round 9/10)
Analysis: This is a tricky one. Johnson would easily move from one to avoid to one to watch if he wasn't the subject of a potential transfer saga with unknown ramifications. The pacy forward has been heavily linked with a move to Brentford, which could be a good thing for him to take the next step in his career, but could also see him facing much stiffer competition for a place in the starting lineup -- particularly once Ivan Toney's ban is up. West Ham, Everton and Aston Villa have also been reported as showing interest in the Welsh winger. The uncertainty around his future makes BJ an enigmatic figure for fantasy valuation.
Johnson was a mainstay in the Forest side in 22/23, appearing in all 38 games. However, the 22 year-old only started 3 of the last 7 matches under Steve Cooper. That's probably not enough of a sample size to glean anything from but it is worth noting the forward's similarly dreadful run to the rest of his teammates to close out the season. Johnson was instrumental in the 4-3 win over Southampton with two assists, but his 17 points in that match were preceded by scores of 6, 4, 1, 0 and -0.5 from his starts. Much like his teammate Awoniyi, Johnson is surprisingly much more reliant on goals and assists for his points than you'd expect for a player with his skill set.
Honorable Mention:
For the sake of your drafts, the answer for who to avoid is honestly everybody else. Unless Forest bring in a new signing that's worthy of our attention, you're probably safe to leave their players in the free agent pool and make an assessment after the Arsenal game in week 1. There may be some value pick-ups off the waiver wire for this squad, but not enough has changed from their nearly relegated squad from last season to make investment outside of the players to watch a wise idea.
3 Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Nottingham Forest. These are 3 questions surrounding the Tricky Trees (yes, this is one of their actual nicknames) that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Nottingham Forest fantasy assets.
Will we see progression or regression from MGW? - There's no way we'd be writing anything about Nottingham Forest this season without Morgan Gibbs-White. He was instrumental to their success last campaign, and should only get better considering he's still just 23 years old. That said, opposition managers will be well aware of the danger MGW poses and may modify their game plans to focus on neutralizing the attacking midfielder.
Has Cooper found his preferred system? - The Forest manager struggled to find a winning formula last season, ultimately settling on a very defensive 3-4-3 that sometimes appeared more like 5-3-1-1. While the team and the manager survived, it certainly doesn't inspire confidence that we'll see a better Forest side this season, especially since the shift back the pitch didn't actually prevent many goals from being conceded. Cooper found great success in the Championship with a much more attacking version of the 3-4-3, but quickly found his squad didn't have the quality to sustain it in the top flight. Will he return to this system with a year in the Premier League under his belt or will he stick to the defense-first approach that helped him stay in the job? Something else altogether?
Will there be any draft-worthy additions this summer? - With FFP restrictions seeming to be more strictly enforced this summer, this season's transfer window won't look anything like the last for Forest. The unfortunate truth is that, despite signing 22 first-team players ahead of the 22/23 campaign, there really aren't too many you'd call Premier League starting quality. If Forest are to escape relegation again this season, they almost certainly need another player or two who can come in and establish themselves quickly. In particular, Forest need a goal scorer; another creative midfield option to lessen the burden on MGW; and a top-tier shot stopper to help reduce the number of goals they concede. We may see a goalkeeper come in before the end of the window without any further departures but it's unlikely we'll see too much more activity this window without some sales taking place first.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red hot start creates red hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Nottingham Forest's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
While there's a fair amount of favorable green here, it's hard to get too excited about the opening Fixture run for Forest. They'll have a repeat of their all-important game against Arsenal to start this season and Mikel Arteta will surely have his men ready to exact their revenge. Whoever ends up being the Forest goalkeeper may be the only viable fantasy option outside of MGW and possibly Felipe for the tricky fixtures against Man United and Chelsea, while both Sheffield United and Burnley are unknown quantities at this point and could make a mockery of their default promoted club fixture difficulty scores. Tread carefully, or not at all.
23/24 Nottingham Forest Predicted Lineup
The following graphic represents our prediction for the most likely line-up for the long-term for Nottingham Forest in the upcoming season. We can't account for injuries or new transfers, but this can serve as a guide for who you can expect to see most frequently in the Premier League this season.
There are a few question marks in the side that could lead to some differences early on. Taiwo Awoniyi has spent much of pre-season on the sidelines, with Chris Wood standing in for him. The same is true for central defenders Felipe and Moussa Niakhate, who should be the preferred starters when they return to fitness. If Steve Cooper opts to switch back to a 4-at-the-back formation, we could see Anthony Elanga and Brennan Johnson line up as wingers and Danilo shift back into central midfield at the expense of Orel Mangala. The continuing transfer speculation around Johnson suggests he could find himself on the fringes until at least the end of the transfer window, however.
More Team Previews: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Burnley | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Luton | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Sheffield United | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
Check out our 23/24 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
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