Brighton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Ryan Barnes
- Jul 31, 2024
- 10 min read
Updated: Aug 3, 2024
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Brighton's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Brighton Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Brighton 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Brighton Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Brighton Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Brighton's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
Quick Links:
Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Brighton player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of the Seagulls' early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup.
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Brighton fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
The Seagulls have a ton of question marks coming into the new season. They have a new manager (one younger than Milner at that), a ton of attacking options, and have parted ways with talisman Pascal Gross. As a result, the fantasy points will likely continue to be fairly widely dispersed. If Joao Pedro gets consistent starts and maintains his stranglehold on penalties, he'll be the favorite to be top scorer. But that isn't promised and it's wide open. Mitoma, March, Adingra, Minteh, and Enciso are all competing for attacking spots in the lineup. Figuring out which of these are the favorites to nail down the most starts will be the name of the game this season. Meanwhile, Estupinan remains the best hope for fantasy points from the backline, if he can keep his spot over Barco. Up top, Evan Ferguson has another chance at a consistent season but we shouldn't get our hopes up, and Pedro and ole Welbz (Danny Welbeck) will continue to nick starts.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Brighton players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Kaoru Mitoma
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 198.75 (56th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 10.5 (15 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 40 - 50 (12 Team League: Round 4)
Analysis: The Japanese winger has dazzled us with his crazy dribbling and fun, direct style. He has been a breath of fresh air in a climate of rigid, systemic tactics. The guy literally wrote a dissertation on dribbling for goodness' sake. And he can back it up fantasy-wise. In his breakout campaign in 22/23, Mitoma posted nearly 13 PPS and 8 GPPS to go along with 12 G/A. This past season was disappointing, however, this was only due to a string of injuries, which kept him out for the majority of 23/24. Even in those 15 starts, he still delivered the goods - 10.5 PPS and 7 G/A.
By all accounts, he is fit and raring to go. The new manager factor, of course, does add some uncertainty. And there are a plethora of options on either wing. However, he is clearly the best LW on the team and it's doubtful this will be overlooked by Hurzeler. So the odds are that the will be first choice LW and if he stays fit, he should replicate his 22/23 numbers or better, depending on how well they play in this new system. If he's still there in late round 3 or round 4, he's great value.
Yankuba Minteh
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: N/A
23/24 Points Per Start: N/A
Recommended Draft Pick: 130 - 140 (12 Team League: Round 11 or 12)
Analysis: Rarely does Brighton make big purchases - it's usually the other way around. They utilize their amazing scouting to find a diamond the rough, polish it on the south coast, and then sell (usually to Chelsea) for a big profit. So it was surprising to see the 33 million pound outlay on Yankuba Minteh, the 20 year old winger from Newcastle United.
Very early returns appear to confirm that the Brighton front office has indeed done it again with this signing. He has been really impressive in preseason, scoring goals and leaving defenders in the dust. The real thing - EPL defenses - will be the true test but so far, so good. While he is still very young and raw, he showed what he can do on loan with Feyenoord in the Dutch Eridisivie last season, hitting the back of the net 10 times in just 27 appearances. The big questions for our purposes are: 1) will he go straight into the starting XI; and 2) will (and how) he fill up the stat sheet? While there is a ton of competition, as we know, our guess is that the starting RW spot will likely be his to lose. We know what Solly March offers but his injury issues mean he'll likely be treated with kid gloves at least until he proves his fitness. Regarding the latter question, Minteh looks like he can deliver successful dribbles in addition to attacking returns. He could likely replicate Adingra's fantasy production (or more if he hits the ground running). Either way, he's an excellent later round punt. Read more here.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at the Amex. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Brighton players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Simon Adingra
Position: MID (was classified as a FWD last season)
23/24 Points: 269.5 (24th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 9.5 (25 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 110 - 120 (12 Team League: Round 10 or 11)
Analysis: Based on the analysis above, Minteh could be this season's Simon Adingra. But what are we to make of the Ivorian himself the season? To be sure, he had a breakout season. He filled in more than capably for Mitoma while he was out and made that LW spot his own while fending off a fair amount of competition. He produced 7 G/A and an impressive 9.5 PPS in 25 starts.
This is a long wind up to a promo indicating that he should crack on in 24/25, no? Well, not so fast. While he is a top talent, Mitoma's back and there are plenty others with whom to compete for a finite amount of spots. And while he became a favorite of former manager Roberto De Zerbi, it's too early to tell where he stands with Hurzeler. This is not to say that he's not worthy of a punt. It's more a value question. His current ADP has him being taken off the draft board in Round 7 or so. Given the fact that he likely won't be a nailed on starter, the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
Evan Ferguson
Position: FWD
23/24 Points: 123.5 (48th best FWD)
23/24 Points Per Start: 6.1 (15 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: 150 - 160 (12 Team League: Rounds 13 or 14)
Analysis: Another shining achievement by the Brighton scouting team, Evan Ferguson is often spoken about with an over 100 million pound price tag bandied about. This is because he is very young (still only 19) and incredibly talented. But he is in danger of tarnishing his status as "the next big thing". He just can't seem to stay fit. In the past two seasons, he only has 25 EPL starts under his belt. Last campaign was supposed to be his coming out party, turning the lofty expectations into concrete goals and results. But he only mustered 15 starts and 6 goals (half of which came in one game).
Fantasy-wise, he's been poor. His paltry 6 PPS would have been even worse if you take away the hat trick against Newcastle in September. And he's extremely - and I do mean EXTREMELY - goal dependent, even for a forward. His ghost points per start of 3.3 last season makes me nauseous. For comparison, the likes of Haaland and Isak, also fairly reliant on goals for their fantasy stats, are in the 6ish GPPS range. Given the injuries and goal dependence, he's a very late round flier even at that. He obviously has the talent to turn it around and could be one to watch but is sadly not worth an early or even mid-round draft pick at this point.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Brighton. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Seagulls that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Brighton's fantasy assets.
New Manager Effect/Rotation
Roberto De Zerbi built upon the foundation laid by Graham Potter and pushed the Seagulls into Europe (see below), playing some impressive football in the process. But it started to go a bit pear-shaped at the end and it was time for both parties to move on. The Brighton front office went with a bold replacement. Enter Fabian Hurzeler, the 31 year old gaffer swapping the German second division for the Premier League - quite a step up. How quickly he is able to implement his tactical set up (more on that below) and find his best team (given the litany of attackers on the roster, will he rotate as much as his predecessors?) will dictate where this team can go in his debut season and most importantly, for our purposes, who will emerge as the more nailed on starters and fantasy gems in this very talented side. Guys like Enciso, Barco, or Osman could easily surpass their draft day value if rotation (or an injury issue) falls in their favor.
No Europe
The fact that little old Brighton qualified for the Europa League is a testament to how far this well-run club has gone in a short period of time. Despite it being their first time in Europe, they got to the knockout stages and were narrowly vanquished by European heavyweights Roma. An amazing achievement but the European campaign took a toll on the team. Injuries and rotation were rife last season largely due to the flurry of additional games. And this negatively impacted Brighton's EPL form and results. They went from 6th place and 62 points in 22/23 to 11th place and 48 points last season. Without this added strain, the Seagulls and their fantasy assets should benefit. But only time will tell.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Brighton's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
It's a mixed bag for Brighton in terms of early matchups. A tricky trip to Goodison Park is followed by the enigmatic Manchester United at home, a very difficult away fixture to Arsenal then two of the tastiest matchups in the EPL - newly promoted Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest in the friendly confines of the Amex. This stretch may be difficult regardless because the team will likely need a bit of time to fully adapt to Hurzeler's new system (although these players are fairly used to it by now having played under Roberto De Zerbi). If any of them struggle in the first 3 matches, they should be pounced upon before that soft patch against Ipswich Town & Forest.
24/25 Brighton Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Brighton lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Brighton's XI shaking out.
Hurzeler employs an interesting and fluid system. His 3-4-3 starts out as a back 3 but shifts to 2 cbs in buildup and a back 5 when defending, and includes a wide press. It's all very complicated but the main takeaways are that the wingbacks hold width, get forward, and pump in crosses (majority of which come from the right side) against low blocks. In fact, the RWB and RW for Saint Pauli were the most prolific crosses on the team. This is all to say that the wing backs and wingers are crucial for the attack. But will he have wingers playing as wing backs? Will he shunt out Mitoma or Adingra to play LWB or March at RWB? If so, it will open up slots for more of the dangerous wingers like Minteh, Enciso, and more. He has done that so far in preseason - with Mitoma at LWB - but it's too early to know his final plans. This will be critical for fantasy purposes.
Again, there is a lot of uncertainty, so take this predicted XI with an even bigger mound of salt than others. But here goes. The back 3 will likely be a combo of Dunk, van Hecke, and either someone like Veltman or a tradition CB like Webster. When healthy, the LWB should be Estupinan and RWB Lamptey or Veltman, with new signing Wieffer and Baleba (now that Gilmour seems to be on his way out), and Mitoma, Pedro, and Minteh rounding out the front 3 (with a ton of backups). It must be said that the graphic above cannot even contain the depth that the Seagulls have. Buonanotte, Sarmiento, Undav, Cozier-Duberry, Yalcouye, Rushworth, and/or Ayari could end up playing important roles for Brighton this season (or they could be sold/loaned out). But we strive to surface the most fantasy-relevant here.
More 24/25 Fantasy Forecasts: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Ipswich Town | Leicester City | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Southampton | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need. We've got a Live Draft Aide, Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Cheat Sheets, Strategy Articles, Draft 101, plus so much more. Dominate your draft!
Have you heard about our revolutionary Draft Fantasy Football app? We call it The Fantasy Toolkit. Expand to read more!
Each gameweek, The Fantasy Toolkit will bring you:
Recommended waiver adds & drops
Optimal lineup suggestions
Matchup projections vs your opponent
Trade calculator
Fixture Difficulty Tracker (for each position on the pitch)
Gameweek Transaction Data from the "Big 3" community leagues
ROS & Playoff Planning Tool
Team Power Rankings for every team in your league
ABD EVEN MORE TO COME!
All in one customized and personalised package
It's included in our Ultimate Pass and Season Pass plans and will give you a massive leg up on your league-mates. Check out a full demonstration video HERE for more info!
Comments