Newcastle United 24/25 Fantasy Forecast
- Draft Genie
- Aug 1, 2024
- 12 min read
With draft day almost upon us, it's time to preview Newcastle United's fantasy football prospects for the new season in our 24/25 Newcastle Fantasy Forecast. In this year's 24/25 Draft Kit, we are featuring both a Fantasy Flashback and a Fantasy Forecast for every single Premier League team. There is also a plethora of other EPL Draft related articles in our Draft Kit, ranging from strategy to mock drafts to transfers and everything in between. Check the 24/25 Draft Kit main page often, as it's updated constantly!
Our Newcastle 24/25 Fantasy Forecast will feature players to watch, players to avoid, season points projections, an early season fixtures analysis, and our predicted XI. We've got it all covered. Our Draft Premier League fantasy forecasts will help set you up to dominate your draft! And be sure to check out the Newcastle United Fantasy Flashback for our full analysis of last season's fantasy football results.
Check back often! Our team previews will be updated throughout the summer as any new transfer, injury, or rotation developments come to light.
Check out our 24/25 Draft Kit for all the pre-season information you could ever need: Draft Rankings, Team Previews, Mock Drafts, Strategy, Draft 101. We've got it all!
Newcastle United Fantasy Forecast 24/25
Let's jump into our in-depth look at Newcastle United's prospects for the new EPL season below. This information will form a key component to your draft prep and set you up to dominate your draft!
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Fantasy Forecast
Past is prelude, as they say. So, turning to the 24/25 season, we've got Newcastle player projections, key players to keep an eye on, players we're staying away from, question marks surrounding the club at this moment, an analysis of Newcastle's early-season fixtures, and our predicted starting lineup. A huge thanks to @LotmerFF for his help and insight with these Newcastle takes!
24/25 Player Projections
Below, you'll find our season projections for Newcastle's fantasy assets. Our projections are created using a number of contributing factors such as historical performances, expected team strength, betting odds and more. ProjPPS (Points Per Start) and ProjFPts (Projected Total Points) refer to Fantrax Default Scoring.
Gordon and Isak are expected to be the two standout assets this year and there is no surprises there. Both are coming off incredible seasons, and will be drafted between picks 12-15 most likely. Their projects have them both above 13 points per start, and I don't see a reason why they can't hit that. Isak will be the main man once again, and as Gordon continues to develop, he should continue his great progression. If you want either, you will need to use your late round 1 or early round 2 pick.
Midfielders Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton are expected to be consistent assets, but Bruno will get a significant amount more of starts. His 10.6 PPS has him as a very solid MID2, but he should be taken in round 3-4 not the round 2 he is going in mocks or ADP. Joelinton is a trickier one, but we will dive into that later. Willock has every chance to win a starting midfield spot, but he is not worth a draft pick at the moment despite his predicted 8.4 PPS due to injury and rotation risk. Barnes, Murphy, and Almiron will be battling it out for the final wing spot. Murphy finished the season strong, but Howe will be hoping to get a tune out of Barnes this year. All will be risky picks, but Barnes will command the highest draft capital. Wilson will be nothing more than a backup to Isak, but could be a great streaming option during the festive period or if Isak gets hurt.
On the defensive side, Trippier is expected to be the standout again, but his situation is very tricky. We will look into this later in the article. On the other hand, the likes of Schar and Burn will offer consistent DEF2 value. The new scoring and Newcastle not being in Europe surely helps their defensive record. Lewis Hall is definitely one to watch. He is highlighted in Sleepers XI and will be discussed again below.
Players to Watch
We've highlighted some Newcastle players that we're keeping an eye on. The players mentioned below may be sleepers. They may be up-and-coming youngsters. They may be vying for a spot in the XI. Whatever the case, we'll tell you why we're watching these particular assets in EPL Draft Fantasy this year.
Lewis Hall
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 58.5 (113th best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 8 (8 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: ## 121 - 132 ## (12 Team League: Round 11)
Analysis: Not sure how much more I need to discuss Hall after Sleepers, but he will be VALUE this season. In a likely starting left back spot, or a potential new midfield role, or a chance to replace the potentially departing Trippier, he has DEF1 upside for the price of a DEF3/4. I do worry Hall starts to creep up on draft boards in mocks and on managers radars after being discussed so much. He has lots of opportunities to gain starts in a midfield pivot, but he should be the go-to LB for this season, especially with Trippier halfway out the door, and Burn needed at CB with the other injuries there. You'll need to read your league see how late you can get him. Newcastle fans may be reaching for him in the 9th round, but most leagues a reach at round 10 will guarantee you getting him. In "fast drafts" I think he will fall later than in slow drafts when managers have too much time to sift through picks.
Hall has already shown in preseason he can deliver some good ghosts. His 4 key passes, 7 tackles won, and 3 blocked shots show his versatility and ability to fill the stat sheet in the CDM role. He should also improve on his 7.5 ghost points per start. Hall should be on everyone's radar this summer, but it is just about who is willing to reach the highest to guarantee him.
Harvey Barnes
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 121 (87th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 6.1 (7 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: ## 109 - 120 ## (12 Team League: Round 10)
Analysis: I'm a little more cautious when it comes to Barnes but his upside, and the lack of attacking mids late on in drafts makes him a worthwhile punt in the 10th. Barnes will be hoping to win a winger spot opposite Gordon but has some competition from Murphy, Almiron, and a potential new signing. It really is a toss up in my opinion between Barnes and Murphy for that role (assuming Almiron leaves, as rumored). If Almiron is around come the end of the transfer window we could see a different kind of shakeout in that Newcastle attack. While both Barnes and Murphy are worth drafting, Barnes will be needing a much higher draft pick. Barnes had a poor first season with only 7 starts and a poor 6.1 PPS, and an abysmal 3.6 ghost points in those starts. He scored 5 goals and 3 assists in 21 overall appearances, with the majority of his returns coming from the bench. It is worth noting that if Barnes wins this wing spot it will likely push Gordon to the right wing, similarly to how Howe intended to use both players before Barnes became an injury concern. The trick here will be Barnes doing enough to keep both Almiron and Murphy on the bench. We have seen Gordon can be a menace on either wing, so if Barnes fails to impress we could see him be a backup with Gordon shifting left and Almiron or Murphy starting on the right side. A lot to look in final games of pre-season clearly.
In order for Barnes to win this role he will need to replicate the form that secured him this move. We all know Barnes has the talent to be a top EPL winger, as he showed in his final season with Leicester City with 13 goals on a relegated team. If he can find even a glimpse of that form from his Leicester days, he could finally kickstart his career. Barnes is worth a punt as a MID4 or 5, If you are drafting him as a MID2 you will be in for a difficult season. It is worth considering taking Murphy in the last 2-3 rounds to try and secure that Newcastle winger role if you do plan on rostering Barnes.
Players to Avoid
It's not all sunshine and rainbows at St. James' Park. At least, not as far as Draft Fantasy Football is concerned. Below, we will also highlight some fantasy assets that we're not so thrilled about. These are the Newcastle players you might want to avoid come draft day.
Kieran Trippier
Position: DEF
23/24 Points: 304 (7th best DEF)
23/24 Points Per Start: 11.7 (26 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: ## 32 - 40 ## (12 Team League: Late Round 3 - 4) OR DND
Analysis: Oh boy, Trippier is causing a tricky situation for fantasy managers. He basically has one foot out the door, but Howe has made it clear he wants Trippier to stay one more season. Unfortunately, drafts will be done before the start of the season, and about 2-3 weeks before the window closes. If Trippier stays he is a lock at RB and has every chance to be the top defender in Fantrax. The biggest issue is that he will require a high draft pick, and similar to the Harry Kane situation of last year, you will be left with your 2nd-3rd rounder leaving your team without having even played a minute.
Personally, Trippier will be on my DND list, I would rather not get involved in the whole transfer saga, and then needing to trade him away for pennies to a manager willing to gamble, or having to drop him. That whole situation just gets too complex. If you get wind that Trippier is going to stay BEFORE your draft, then I would draft him in the third round. However, if his future remains as unclear as it is he is a DND for me. Obviously, you can try to take him in the late rounds, but in every league there will be at least one manager taking the risk in the first 4-5 rounds on him staying.
Joelinton
Position: MID
23/24 Points: 143.5 (79th best MID)
23/24 Points Per Start: 8.4 (15 starts)
Recommended Draft Pick: ## 121 - 132 ## (12 Team League: Round 11)
Analysis: Joelinton should be in for another good season, but he is being way over-drafted in many mocks, and a lot of managers are drafting him based on his stats of last year. This past season, Joelinton was shoved out wide a lot due to the mounting injuries Newcastle had. This year he will not get that kind of opportunity and instead will be battling for a midfield role. He has his work cut out for him with only Bruno G really guaranteed a starting role. The likes of Willock, Longstaff, Miley, Hall, and Tonali will all be competing for a midfield role as well. It is worth noting that reports claim the Newcastle staff are very happy with the strides Tonali is making in all aspects of his game, which could see him cause a serious problem and potentially even bench Joelinton. We could see a significant amount of rotation in the engine room for Howe, until he becomes happy with a midfield combination.
While Joelinton will still offer a good floor, he is too risky of a pick and will lack the ceiling he had last year to be drafted before the 10th round. I would rather punt on teammate Harvey Barnes in the 10th over big Joe. If he fell to you as a MID5/6 he is worth the pick, but based on his ADP and the potential fight on his hand he is one I will be fading this year.
Question Marks
Not everything is crystal clear and predictable at Newcastle United. We've highlighted some questions surrounding the Magpies that we’re grappling with this preseason. We’ll try to note whether or not (and how much) these questions are affecting our perceptions of Newcastle's fantasy assets.
Midfield Conundrum
As discussed briefly above the engine room is going to be a bit crowded for Newcastle this season, with players returning from injuries and suspension and only Anderson departing. In the classic 4-3-3 Newcastle employ, the midfield trio will consist of Bruno Guimares + 2. He is a lock for Howe given how reliable he was last season, and the way he added a more attacking dimension to his game. There are strong rumours as well that if Trippier leaves he will be handed the captain's armband. However, it is worth noting that in their recent friendly vs. Hull, Howe deployed a 4-2-3-1 to have 2 defensive midfielders. Regardless it still only leaves 2 midfield spots open. So who will partner him? Well, there are 2 spots for Joelinton, Willock, Tonali, Miley, Hall and Longstaff. We need to monitor the way Howe sets up for the remainder of pre-season, but with 2 defensive midfielders in the setup it will likely be Bruno and Hall/Tonali in those roles. Joelinton and Willock will be fighting for that 10 role. Hall will more likely than not be the LB this season, but it is his versatility that will allow Howe to move pieces around especially when Botman is back from injury. We could also see some games with Bruno stepping into the 10 and Longstaff pairing Tonali in that role. As well, in a 4-3-3, the formation I do think Newcastle use more often, Tonali will see a large role in my opinion along side Bruno and Joelinton. Hall's versatility will give Howe the option to plug him in midfield depending on the matchup and form of certain players. Miley is out to start the season, but when he gets fit again it's just another piece to this midfield mess. At the end of the day there is a lot of risk to drafting these midfielders outside of Bruno G, but as we have seen Newcastle midfielders do not always score the best in those CM roles.
Replacing Trippier
Trippier is no easy player to replace. He is arguably Newcastle's best signing in this "takeover" era, and his creativity and leadership would be missed greatly. Last season Trippier delivered 10 assists in his 26 starts, the most of any defender in the EPL. The creativity from the right-back position and set-piece delivery will need to be replaced. Livramento is the obvious RB replacement for Trippier when he leaves, but that still leaves a huge creative hole. Howe could get creative with formation changes by playing 3 CBs allowing for more midfielders and attackers with Murphy and Hall occupying wing-back roles, but that might not be his first choice. Players such as Barnes and Joelinton will need to step up to deliver more creativity into the side in Trippier's absence. A big reason we could see Gordon on the right now will be to add more creativity to that side. Hall has shown he can be creative and get forward, but Howe will put a lot in trust in Gordon carrying the ball and trying to create shot opportunities for himself or Isak. Trippier will be a big loss for Newcastle, and we will probably see them dip into the transfer window at some point, but will that be before gameweek 1? I doubt it.
Early-Season Fixture Difficulty
The way that teams come out the gate has big implications in EPL Draft. A red-hot start creates red-hot trade targets. A dismal start means plummeting player values and losses for your fantasy team. Check out our thoughts on Newcastle's early-season fixtures and our analysis of the fantasy implications they will have.
Newcastle have a mixed start to the season, but there is no reason they can't take maximum points from their first 5 games. For those looking to grab Gordon or Isak this could be your ticket to a draft then trade high. While both those players will be great if they have a very hot start, maybe you can use them to bring in bigger names who are more consistently top 5 assets. Bruno G as well deserves a slight bump, if he can pick up where he left off last season. Then, again, he can be used in a trade high situation to gain perhaps a more guaranteed attacking asset. It is a good schedule defensively so assets such as: Hall and Schar could be worth a slight reach in the hopes they increase value, or allow you to ride their momentum beyond GW5. Outside of that I don't see any reason to reach for Newcastle assets above their draft value.
24/25 Newcastle United Predicted Lineup
Based on the information we have now, the below graphic is our best prediction for the eventual long-term Newcastle lineup in 24/25. We can't account for any last minute transfers or injuries, but considering managerial tactics, player form, and availability, this is how we see Newcastle's XI shaking out.
A new RW signing would change this predicted XI quite a lot with Barnes then becoming a backup and Gordon going back to the left, but we will work with what we know so far. Almiron and Murphy will both also be pushing to gain a starting role (most likely on the right), again this would see Gordon play on the left with Barnes now a bench player. The risk with Barnes is why he is only worth a 10th round pick, Almiron consistently benched Barnes last year when he was fit, and if he stays we could see a similar situation play out.
As already discussed, the midfield will see a lot of rotation depending on the way Howe wants to set up, but Joelinton, Tonali, and Bruno G should be the three go-to guys. Tonali will be suspended until GW3 so Longstaff or Willock (if fit in time) will probably start the season there. Botman and Lascelles will be out until December, which should see a Schar and Burn CB partnership. New CB signing Kelly will provide very valuable depth and can play LB as well should Hall be asked to play in midfield or Howe preferring a more Burn-esque option. The Trippier drama was discussed above, but if he were to go Livramento would be the very likely fill-in. Newcastle should contend for top 4 this year and getting one of Isak, Gordon, Bruno, or Hall should be your priority in drafts.
More 24/25 Fantasy Forecasts: Arsenal | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Ipswich Town | Leicester City | Liverpool | Man City | Man United | Newcastle | Nottingham Forest | Southampton | Tottenham | West Ham | Wolves
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