Fantrax EPL: Gameweek 15 Hot or Cold
Our Gameweek 15 Hot or Cold article is here to outline the current prospects of key Fantasy EPL players. Our 'Hot' or 'Cold' status will help take away your emotional attachment to certain Draft Premier League players and help you bring in the players that you need to help you dominate your Fantrax Draft League!
These Hot or Cold ratings are based on the data contained within the Weekly Rest-of-Season Rankings : the Draft Society's exclusive weekly refresh of Fantasy EPL prospect rankings!
Gameweek 15 Hot List
These are Fantasy EPL players that have risen in our Weekly ROS Rankings! Keep an eye on these Draft Premier League players, and bring them into your Fantrax squad if you can.
Team: Newcastle United
GW14 Rank: 76
GW15 Rank: 44
What's Changed?: I might have been a bit slow on the uptake with Almiron, but he's put in so many consistently good performances that he's getting very hard to ignore - 16.2 PPS in the last 6 matches is incredible form! Almiron was signed for big money from the MLS but never got anywhere close to approaching that hype. Transferring to a more difficult league can contribute to that, but his headline stats at Atlanta Utd from 2018 when he had his breakout season make interesting reading. In 32 starts he scored 12 goals from 18.1 xG and assisted 11 from 11.2 xA. For a wing forward this is great output but it shows that while he could generate lots of chances, he was a below average finisher (underperforming by a factor of 0.66). Prior to this season, his time on Tyneside has seen him start 91 games but score just 9 goals from 13.9 xG (factor of 0.65). So while his finishing performance has stayed exactly the same, the amount of chances he's generated has taken a huge cut.
So why the history lesson? We need to understand whether Almiron's amazing performances this season are sustainable. While he has underperformed his xG historically he's currently on 7 goals from 4.3 xG which is a big overperformance (factor of 1.6) and his 5.8 gPP90 means that he's very reliant on those goals for his value as a fantasy asset. While I don't think he can carry on at this rate, there are a number of factors that make me think he keeps up a decent level. In previous seasons he's been managed by Steve Bruce... while I could rest my case there, the way Almiron was used clearly had a big effect on his confidence over the last few years. Shunted all over the pitch, often from the left, as more of a hard working utility winger with inconsistent starts, in a relegation threatened side, it's really not a great situation for a young player. However, he has been re-born under Eddie Howe this season, now deployed on the right, he has come alive as an inverted forward cutting in on his left foot to great effect. He's generating chances at a very good level again and the goals have kept coming as his confidence has grown.
Recommendation: The World Cup probably doesn't come at a great time for him given his momentum and his value is way too high, so I wouldn't consider trading him in right now considering his overperformance. He appears an excellent trade out on a high candidate, but due to his poor 'name value' it might be difficult to do a 1-1 trade for a bigger Round 3/4 value player like Rashford or Antony. Your best route might be using him as a +1 in bigger trade to upgrade say Saka or Martinell to KDB. But if no-one bites I'd happily ride him out until the wheels fall off.
GW14 Rank: 107
GW15 Rank: 80
What's Changed?: Double digit ghost point performances in his last 3 starts, with a goal thrown in, honestly I didn't see this one coming after he got injured in his first start for Fulham back in September. But it looks like Willian has rolled back the years and we're seeing the Chelsea version rather than the spectacularly bad Arsenal version. Of course there is the cautionary tale from his brief stint there which we have to keep in mind, where he started like a house on fire, before fading into irrelevance. However, he's playing with such freedom at Fulham now, cutting in from the left, popping off shots for fun and racking up key passes for days. He even racked up 5 completed dribbles against Leeds, some going for a 34 year old! He could arguably be even higher in my ranks, but I want to wait and see if he can keep it up over a longer period and against tougher opposition. Fulham have had a pretty nice run of fixtures, with Willian's 3 starts coming against Everton, Leeds and Villa, ultimately contributing to Gerrard's sacking. However, they now face Man City and Man United back to back before the World Cup break, so we need to temper expectations a bit and not rush to bring him in too soon.
Recommendation: You'll probably have to overpay to get him in right now, so I would wait until after the next two games if you do fancy him, the manager who rosters him should have a less rosy view at that point. In a similar vein to Almiron I think a 1-1 trade is difficult given his limited number of starts, but maybe you could use him as a +1 in a deal to buy low on Salah, Diaz or Son.
Team: Newcastle United
GW14 Rank: 63
GW15 Rank: 50
What's Changed?: Since Isak's injury Callum Wilson has come alive in an absolutely buzzing Newcastle team. GW14 saw Wilson amass 39.5 points from 2 goals and 2 assists in a 4-0 drubbing of Aston Villa, but it's not just recently that he's been putting the goals away. Either side of the period he had through injury in September he's scored a total of 6 goals from 6.1 XG in 9 starts on the way to 13.1 PPS, which ranks him 13th for players with 50%+ starts. Wilson has always been fairly reliant on attacking returns for his points, this season he's on 5.3 gPPS, but it just doesn't matter when he's in red hot form like this and with Newcastle looking like absolute juggernauts. The World Cup break brings a few question marks to his value, if he goes to the World Cup, can he stay fit? Post-World Cup with Isak back, who is first choice? Can they play together? All of these question marks along with his injury history, are risks that need to be considered when valuing him.
Recommendation: Factoring in all the above, I wouldn't look to trade in Wilson despite how well he's been playing, unless it was super cheap. If you could sell on a high for an underperforming 3rd round value player, like Robertson then I'd go for it, if not just ride out the good times and maybe bring Isak in on the cheap as a handcuff.
For the full list of Gameweek 15 risers, check out our Weekly ROS Rankings page!
Gameweek 15 Cold List
These are Fantasy EPL players that have fallen in our Weekly ROS Rankings. This may be due to poor form, being dropped from the preferred XI, suffering an injury, or receiving a suspension. It's could be time to consider trading out or dropping these Draft Premier League players from your rosters!
Team: Leeds United
GW14 Rank: 31
GW15 Rank: 47
What's Changed?: Short of those glorious first 3 gameweeks of the season where he put up scores of 22, 14.5 and 30.5, Harrison has been a total nightmare to roster with just 5.5 PPS (4.6 gPPS) in 8 starts since. I was maybe too patient with him, an assist in the game against Fulham in GW13 gave him a stay of execution, but he has now had a significant drop in my ranks. Harrison's struggles have gone hand in hand with Leed's awful form in the Premier League, but even a winning display at Anfield saw him put up just 2.5 points and an early substitution in the 71st minute. Harrison always has the potential to pop off at any time, especially as he commands around half of all Leeds' set pieces, but the way his ghosts have dried up so much is very worrying and the fact that he's generating just 0.17 xG +xA per start in the last 8 is not encouraging at all.
Recommendation: His value is too low right now to trade out, but if he has a huge game against Bournemouth I would look to capitalize and ship him out for players such as Rashford who has identical FP/G in Fantrax but has much easier fixture schedule coming up.
GW14 Rank: 86
GW15 Rank: 97
What's Changed?: We all remember that golden boot season Aubameyang had or Arsenal in 18/19 scoring 22 goals and followed it up with another 22 goal season before falling off a cliff once he has secured a huge contract renewal. The 33 year old was always very goal dependent for his fantasy points, which was fine when he was banging them in, but he looks a shadow of his former self. Graham Potter appears to have been prioritizing his best XI in the Champions League where he doesn't have as much knowledge of the opposition, while rotating more in the Premier League. This has seen Aubameyang start just 3 times in the league this season with a paltry 6.2 PPS (3.2 gPPS), the one goal making his points look only slightly less horrendous. He should get more game time post World Cup, but with Potter known for rotation, a goal dependent striker that I could only project to start a max of 50% games rest of season holds little to no value.
Recommendation: It's not long until the World Cup so in 12+ team leagues, if you roster him I'd hold in the hope he gains more starts post-WC with the schedule lightening up a bit, then look to ship him out if he gets a goal or two. However, if you're in a 10 team league or less, then I'd probably drop, you can get more value with an open roster spot each week.
GW14 Rank: 61
GW15 Rank: 72
What's Changed?: Gordon had a solid start to the season, scoring a couple of goals and looking as lively as ever. The first 6 games saw him put up a very useful 9.9 PPS (7.8 gPPS), almost bang on the money in terms of his performance from last season. However, he's really gone off the boil since, from GW8-14 he's started 5 games scoring 1 goal and putting up just 5.0 PPS (3.8 gPPS). That drop off in ghosts is the most worrying part, as Everton don't create enough chances and he doesn't score enough to be a decent fantasy asset without them. His real life performances have been bad enough that we could see McNeil rotate in for Gordon more often, which is entirely possible this coming gameweek.
Recommendation: In 12+ team leagues Gordon has just enough value to keep on your roster, given his historic performances from last season, but he should be on a very short leash after the World Cup. So you can either stay patient with him, or you could look to ship him out for some FAB if someone bites. In a 10 team league or less I'd happily consider dropping him to the waiver wire if you've already got solid mid/fwd options, but of course aim to get something for him before doing that.
For the full list of Gameweek 15 fallers, check out our Weekly ROS Rankings page!
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